Etf Universe
Etf Universe
2026-07-17 ETF Universe Scan — Broad Market Cools Hard, SOXL's Distribution Flag Fully Confirmed, Cyber Bucks The Pullback
The broad market took a real step down this week — QQQM/QQQ/VOO/VTI all cooled from RSI 53-60 to 42-49, and the moving-average cushion compressed across nearly every fund in the universe. Structure is still intact (every broad-market name remains golden-crossed and positive vs its 200-day), so this reads as a genuine pullback, not a breakdown. The clearest single confirmation this cycle: SOXL, flagged last scan as "extension without momentum," is now down -51.5% over 30 days — the distribution call was right. Gold and miners deepened further with no stabilization signal, TAN's SMA200 cushion finally failed (now -1.4%, was +1.1%), and a small cyber/security cluster (PANW, OKTA, CRWD) bucked the broader cooldown and reaccelerated to new highs — the one clean divergence in an otherwise weaker tape.
Data as-of 2026-07-17 close (LRCX-adjacent names not applicable here; QTUM's feed refreshed to current after two scans stale). Source: summaries/etf-ideas.json, read directly — no computed math. Prior scan: 2026-07-11-etf-universe (2026-07-10 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Broad-market cooldown — RSI down 10-14 points across QQQM/QQQ/VOO/VTI, but every name stays golden-crossed and positive vs its 200-day; a pullback, not a breakdown |
| Confirmed flag | SOXL's "weak-down trend, extension without momentum" call from last scan fully played out — 30D now -51.5%, 7D -29.5% |
| Bucking the pullback | PANW (RSI 58.6→67.4), OKTA (62.2→64.8), CRWD (57.2→62.9) all reaccelerated while the broad tape cooled |
| Structural flag | TAN's SMA200 cushion flipped negative (-1.4%, was +1.1%) — the golden cross is nominally intact but the price support it implied has failed |
| Laggards, no stabilization | GDX (RSI 36.9, collapse, -18.4% vs SMA200), GLD (RSI 40.0, death cross), URA (RSI 30.9, collapse) |
| Key insight | This is a broad, structural cooldown across index/tech/semis funds — not an isolated name break — while a handful of security-software names moved the opposite direction |
What's Going On
The broad-market sleeve gave back real ground this week. QQQM ($286.31, RSI 42.0, 30D -5.87%) and QQQ ($695.33, RSI 42.1, 30D -6.01%) both cooled from last scan's RSI 53, and both now carry a weak-down trend flag even though the uptrend regime tag and golden cross hold. VOO ($683.17, RSI 48.6, 30D -0.43%) and VTI ($367.01, RSI 48.4, 30D -0.52%) cooled less sharply but still gave up all of last scan's positive 30-day print. IWM ($294.04, RSI 50.2) held up best of the four, only mildly negative on 30D (-0.52%). None of the four broke structure — all remain golden-crossed, all still sit 7-12% above their 200-day — so this reads as a real but contained pullback.
Semis took the hardest hit. SMH ($556.53, RSI 41.2, 30D -15.66%) and VGT/XLK/FTEC all cooled 8-10 RSI points with double-digit vs-SMA200 compression (SMH's cushion shrank from +41.1% to +26.7%). SOXL is the scan's clearest vindicated call: flagged last scan as "extension without momentum, treat as a heat signal, not a buyable dip" at RSI 47.1, it's now at RSI 39.4 with a 30-day decline of -51.49% and a 7-day decline of -29.54% — the leveraged-fund mirror of a real semis complex rollover, not noise. TQQQ (-18.32% 30D) and TECL (-24.81% 30D) show the same pattern at smaller multiples.
The prior scan's overbought-cooldown story — XBI, LABU, JETS digesting via time not price — has now shaded into a real pullback too, though none of the three broke down. XBI (RSI 55.1, 30D +9.73%) is still positive; LABU (RSI 52.5, 30D +28.38%, downgraded from uptrend to pullback regime) gave back real ground after last scan's parabolic-adjacent read; JETS (RSI 44.7, 30D -1.74%) flipped negative on the month for the first time in this corpus. TAN's SMA200 cushion — flagged last scan as "down to +1.1%, near failing" — has now failed, sitting at -1.4% even though the golden-cross flag itself hasn't flipped. Gold and miners deepened further with no basing signal: GLD (RSI 40.0, -4.83% 30D), GDX (RSI 36.9, -13.56% 30D, -18.4% vs SMA200), URA (RSI 30.9, collapse). KWEB and FXI both continued last scan's early stabilization (FXI now RSI 55.7, vs-SMA200 cushion improved to -8.2% from -10.3%), still unconfirmed by a golden-cross flip. A new ticker, RONB, joined the universe this cycle alongside the still-ungraded 07-11 cohort; the too-young group overall shows extreme dispersion — SSPC/SPCQ are up 84-89% on 30D while RAM/MRVU/MVLL are down 49-67% — too fresh for a trend call either way.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-11 → 2026-07-17)
| Change | Read |
|---|---|
| Broad market cooled hard — QQQM/QQQ RSI 53→42, VOO/VTI RSI 60→48-49, all 30D prints flipped negative | A real, structural pullback across the index sleeve — not an isolated break; every name stays golden-crossed |
| SOXL's distribution flag confirmed — 30D deepened from -14.2% to -51.49% while still +44.2% vs SMA200 (was +111.6%) | The prior scan's "extension without momentum" read was exactly right; this is what that call looked like playing out |
| TAN's SMA200 cushion failed — vs SMA200 flipped from +1.1% to -1.4% | The near-failing golden-cross cushion flagged last scan is now underwater |
| PANW/OKTA/CRWD reaccelerated — PANW RSI 58.6→67.4, OKTA 62.2→64.8, CRWD 57.2→62.9, all extending further vs SMA200 | The one clean divergence from the broad cooldown — security software kept climbing while the index/semis sleeve pulled back |
| QTUM's feed refreshed (was stale 07-09, now current) and confirmed a real cooldown — RSI 48.9→36.3, 30D +3.2%→-15.5% | The "cleanest uptrend, not extended" read from last scan didn't survive fresh data |
| GDX deepened further (-9.9%→-13.6%→-18.4% vs SMA200 across three scans) | Continued gold-miner weakness, no stabilization signal yet across multiple cycles |
| New ticker RONB added to the universe, too-young | No baseline; grade on the next scan or two |
How To Read The Board
Regime labels (uptrend/pullback/collapse/breakout/too-young) describe each fund's structural state, not a trade recommendation. This cycle's key distinction is between funds that cooled while staying golden-crossed and positive vs their 200-day (the broad market, semis ETFs) — a pullback inside an intact trend — versus funds where the supporting cushion actually failed (TAN's SMA200 cross-under, SOXL's 30-day collapse). Leveraged funds (SOXL, TQQQ, LABU, TECL, etc.) carry structural decay on top of whatever direction they're trending; SOXL's -51.5% 30-day move is the clearest reminder this cycle that leveraged extension is a heat gauge, never an entry signal.
Price Table
Broad Market
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | 3M | vs SMA200 | Trend | Regime | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | $294.04 | 50.2 | -0.66% | -0.52% | +6.27% | +12.1% | strong-up | uptrend | Held up best of the four; smallest 30D decline |
| VOO | $683.17 | 48.6 | -1.54% | -0.43% | +5.16% | +7.2% | strong-up | uptrend | Cooled from RSI 60.0, still healthy |
| VTI | $367.01 | 48.4 | -1.52% | -0.52% | +5.10% | +7.4% | strong-up | uptrend | Tracks VOO closely |
| QQQM | $286.31 | 42.0 | -4.15% | -5.87% | +7.64% | +8.7% | weak-down | uptrend | Trend flag flipped weak-down; golden cross intact |
| QQQ | $695.33 | 42.1 | -4.16% | -6.01% | +7.62% | +8.7% | weak-down | uptrend | Tracks QQQM |
| SMH | $556.53 | 41.2 | -8.92% | -15.66% | +19.95% | +26.7% | weak-down | pullback | Semis ETF, hardest-hit broad name |
| VGT | $113.10 | 44.3 | -4.22% | -5.67% | +11.96% | +13.5% | weak-down | uptrend | Mega-cap tech cooling |
| XLK / FTEC | $175.59 / $270.13 | 42.4 / 44.2 | -5.48% / -4.23% | -8.17% / -5.73% | +13.74% / +12.06% | +14.4% / +13.6% | weak-down | pullback | Track VGT closely |
Leveraged / Inverse (decay risk — heat gauge only)
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | 3M | vs SMA200 | Trend | Regime | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOXL | $135.47 | 39.4 | -29.54% | -51.49% | +41.2% | +44.2% | weak-down | pullback | Last scan's distribution flag fully confirmed |
| TQQQ | $67.53 | 40.8 | -12.33% | -18.32% | +16.53% | +15.5% | weak-down | pullback | 3x QQQ, cooling with the underlying |
| LABU | $265.56 | 52.5 | -9.62% | +28.38% | +28.6% | +55.3% | strong-up | pullback | Downgraded from uptrend; gave back real ground |
| TECL | $177.65 | 41.2 | -16.08% | -24.81% | +32.52% | +26.9% | weak-down | pullback | 3x tech, mirrors XLK/VGT weakness |
| TNA | $70.02 | 48.8 | -2.08% | -2.32% | +14.64% | +28.8% | strong-up | uptrend | Small-cap 3x, tracks IWM's relative strength |
| QLD / SSO / SPXL / UPRO | $85.91 / $66.52 / $265.73 / $139.05 | 41.3-47.3 | -3.2 to -8.3% | -1.4 to -12.2% | +8.6 to +12.7% | +11.4 to +15.4% | weak-down | pullback/uptrend | 2x/3x broad-market bulls, cooling with VOO/QQQ |
| FNGU | $26.54 | 46.0 | -7.33% | -9.60% | +15.04% | +4.6% | weak-down | pullback | 3x FANG, cooling |
| NUGT | $103.47 | 35.9 | -11.23% | -26.75% | -52.52% | -43.1% | strong-down | collapse | 2x gold miners bull, mirrors GDX weakness |
| DUST | $69.85 | 61.8 | +11.4% | +30.0% | +63.01% | +5.9% | up | pullback | 2x gold miners bear, up on continued GDX weakness |
| SQQQ / SOXS / TZA / FNGD / TECS | $42.79 / $54.85 / $40.62 / $35.28 / $77.11 | 25.7-57.0 | +1.8 to +34.4% | +2.0 to +54.6% | -98 to -23.6% | -99 to -29.7% | strong-down / weak-up | collapse/downtrend | Inverse funds up hard on the underlying pullback — SOXS +54.6% 30D mirrors SOXL's collapse |
Sector / Thematic
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 30D | vs SMA200 | Regime | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XBI | $154.26 | 55.1 | +9.73% | +22.0% | uptrend | Downgraded from breakout, still positive |
| JETS | $30.46 | 44.7 | -1.74% | +11.5% | uptrend | First negative 30D print in this corpus |
| QTUM | $141.69 | 36.3 | -15.5% | +14.4% | pullback | Feed refreshed — confirms a real cooldown, not just stale data |
| WCLD | $34.79 | 64.3 | +17.73% | +10.4% | uptrend | Still death-crossed despite the bounce |
| CLOU / SKYY | $24.14 / $136.10 | 60.6 / 50.5 | +10.99% / +3.20% | +10.6% / +7.5% | uptrend / pullback | Cloud/SaaS holding up better than broad tech |
| IGV | $92.80 | 51.4 | +4.16% | -3.2% | downtrend | Deathcross, unremarkable |
| GLD | $368.41 | 40.0 | -4.83% | -10.5% | pullback | DeathCross, continued weakness |
| GDX | $71.32 | 36.9 | -13.56% | -18.4% | collapse | Deepened further, no stabilization across three scans |
| TAN | $53.90 | 39.2 | -11.03% | -1.4% | pullback | SMA200 cushion failed this cycle (was +1.1%) |
| ICLN | $18.37 | 36.3 | -12.94% | -0.5% | pullback | Similar weakness to TAN |
| URA | $38.73 | 30.9 | -18.94% | -21.1% | collapse | Uranium miners, deepest RSI in the sector tier |
| KWEB | $26.81 | 56.0 | +6.22% | -16.3% | downtrend | Stabilization continuing, still death-crossed |
| FXI | $34.13 | 55.7 | +2.49% | -8.2% | downtrend | Cushion improved from -10.3% to -8.2% |
| DRAM | $52.72 | 40.1 | -31.27% | n/a | too-young | Memory-thesis proxy, sharp pullback from +87.9% 3M print |
| RONB | $22.49 | 35.5 | -10.04% | n/a | too-young | New addition this cycle, no baseline |
| EWZ / INDA | $35.23 / $48.91 | 50.9 / 49.2 | +4.45% / -1.35% | +2.0% / -4.4% | pullback / basing | Broad EM, unremarkable |
Income / Bonds
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 30D | vs SMA200 | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JEPQ, JEPI, SCHD, VYM, QYLD, XYLD, DOGG | $17.81-$160.16 | 43.3-62.9 | -3.6% to +4.1% | +2.1 to +11.8% | basing — low-drama, unaffected by the broader pullback |
| HYG | $79.65 | 51.7 | +0.01% | +1.5% | basing | Credit steady |
| LQD | $107.56 | 42.9 | -1.04% | -0.5% | basing | Rate-sensitive, flat |
*(Too-young cohort, high dispersion this cycle: SSPC $18.26 RSI 76.6 30D +89.03% and SPCQ $23.63 RSI 75.4 30D +83.75% are extended/parabolic-adjacent; RAM $12.16 RSI 34.0 30D -48.89%, SPCH $7.83 RSI 23.4 30D -58.72%, MRVU $86.73 RSI 36.0 30D -66.14%, and MVLL $21.51 RSI 36.0 30D -66.66% (now vs SMA200 +27.7%, pullback regime) are all sharply down. CDNG, FOMG, ENTL, CQTM, WQTM, DISK, LAZR remain too-young with no trend classification; several are down 18-52% on 30D.)*
Tier Analysis
Cooling but structurally intact — QQQM, QQQ, VOO, VTI, IWM, SMH, VGT, XLK, FTEC, XBI, JETS, LABU. All still golden-crossed and positive vs their 200-day; RSI down 8-14 points and 30D prints turned negative or flat. This is the broad character of the cycle — a real pullback, not a break.
Distribution confirmed — SOXL. Last scan's "extension without momentum" flag has now shown up as a genuine -51.5% 30-day move. The leveraged-ETF read-through on the semis complex rollover.
Bucking the pullback — PANW, OKTA, CRWD all reaccelerated to new highs on RSI and vs-SMA200 extension while the broad tape cooled. Worth tracking whether this divergence holds or the group eventually reverts with the rest of tech.
Structural failure, unconfirmed reversal — TAN. The SMA200 cushion flagged as "near failing" last scan has now gone negative, though the golden-cross flag itself hasn't flipped.
Weakening / no stabilization — GLD, GDX, URA, ICLN all deepened further with no basing signal across multiple scans.
Early stabilization, unconfirmed — KWEB, FXI continue improving on RSI and vs-SMA200 cushion but remain death-crossed.
High-dispersion, no baseline — the too-young cohort (13+ tickers) ranges from +89% to -66% on 30D; still too fresh for a trend call.
Entry Zones
| Ticker | Price | Zone | RSI | vs SMA200 | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQM / QQQ | $286.31 / $695.33 | Watch for RSI stabilization near current levels | 42.0 / 42.1 | +8.7% | Cooled hard but still golden-crossed; a further break of trend, not just RSI, would be the next real flag |
| SOXL | $135.47 | Avoid as an entry signal | 39.4 | +44.2% | The confirmed distribution case this cycle — extension is decaying, not basing |
| TAN | $53.90 | Watch for a golden-cross flip | 39.2 | -1.4% | SMA200 support has failed; a moving-average cross would be the next confirmation either way |
| KWEB / FXI | $26.81 / $34.13 | Watch for golden-cross flip | 56.0 / 55.7 | -16.3% / -8.2% | Continued RSI/cushion improvement, still death-crossed — don't chase the bounce alone |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | IWM, VOO, VTI, XBI, CLOU, SKYY, income/bond sleeve | Structurally intact, cooling but not broken |
| 🔍 WATCH | QQQM, QQQ, SMH, VGT, XLK, FTEC, JETS, LABU, QTUM, KWEB, FXI, TAN | Real pullback this cycle; confirm stabilization before treating as a dip |
| 🔥 DIVERGING (bucking the pullback) | PANW, OKTA, CRWD | Reaccelerating while the broad tape cools — track whether it holds |
| ⚠️ CAUTION — CONFIRMED DISTRIBUTION | SOXL, TQQQ, TECL | Leveraged decay compounding on a real underlying rollover |
| ❌ AVOID | GDX, URA, GLD, ICLN | Continued collapse/pullback, no stabilization signal across multiple cycles |
| 🔍 NO BASELINE | RONB, RAM, SPCH, SSPC, SPCQ, MRVU, MVLL, CDNG, FOMG, ENTL, CQTM, WQTM, DISK, LAZR | Too-young or freshly volatile; extreme dispersion this cycle |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Whether the broad-market cooldown deepens or stabilizes | QQQM/QQQ's RSI 42 and negative 30D print are the cycle's central story — the next scan tells whether this was a contained pullback or the start of something bigger |
| SOXL's next print | Now that the distribution flag has fully confirmed, watch whether the semis complex finds a floor or the move accelerates further |
| TAN's SMA200 status | Cushion just went negative; a golden-cross flip would be the first real trend-down confirmation in the solar sleeve |
| PANW/OKTA/CRWD divergence | The one group moving against the broad cooldown — worth tracking whether it holds or reverts with the rest of tech |
| KWEB/FXI golden-cross status | Continued RSI recoveries; a golden-cross flip would upgrade these from "bounce" to "trend change" |
| Too-young cohort's next scan | High dispersion (+89% to -66% on 30D) means this group still needs another cycle or two before any tier assignment is meaningful |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-17 close — *.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.