The broad market's sharp 30-day bounce from last cycle stalled flat this cycle — QQQM's 30-day print collapsed to +0.24% from +8.25%, VOO to +0.06% from +5.46% — but every name held its cushion above the 200-day and its one-year return kept climbing (QQQM +25.03%, was +24.16%; VOO +18.68%, was +18.56%), a pause inside an intact uptrend, not a reversal. Read against the broader tape, this looks like a breadth story rather than a mega-cap one: SPY closed at $770.19 (RSI 55.6, strong-up, -1.18% off its high) while the equal-weight proxy RSP's three-month print (+5.37%) now leads both SPY (+4.43%) and QQQ (+1.97%), per data/summaries/market-pulse.json. Chips ripped hard on the session — SOXL +9.87% on the day, SMH +2.61% — but the underlying 18-name semis cohort shows only 4 names in a genuine uptrend and a median drawdown of -26.9% off their 52-week highs, with a median 1-day gain of +3.19% (data/summaries/semis.json, computed directly from the file, not eyeballed). Software fell the same day on the lightest volume of the cycle — 15 of 16 names in the cloud/SaaS cohort were red, at a median relative volume of 0.67x average, yet 14 of 16 still carry an up-classified trend label (data/summaries/cloud-saas.json) — a shallow pullback on light participation, not distribution. The gold complex kept cooling for a second straight cycle: GDX's RSI fell to 58.5 from 62.9, NUGT's to 56.9 from 61.4, and GLD's price stayed below its 200-day for a second cycle (vs-SMA200 -2.1%, was -1.4%, deepening slightly) even as GLD's one-year return cooled to +24.51% from +29.79%. SSPC and SPCQ both deepened their slide for a fourth straight cycle — SSPC's 30-day print widened to -55.16% from -50.98%, SPCQ's to -57.07% from -53.41%. Small caps stayed the one clean divergence in the broad-market complex — IWM's RSI recovered slightly to 48.1 from 45.3 but its 30-day print flipped negative (-1.25%, was +2.49%) and its one-year return cooled again to +25.12% from +26.2%, still trailing the rest of the group. Two risk gauges worth flagging alongside this universe: VIXY closed at $17.00 (RSI 31.5, strong-down, -14.01% on 30 days, -30.07% on 3 months) and TLT stayed strong-down (-10.83% off its high) — both from data/summaries/market-pulse.json, not this universe's own file, but directly relevant to reading the risk backdrop this cohort is bouncing inside.

Data as-of the 2026-09-04 close. Source: etf-ideas, read directly — no computed math beyond simple counts/medians run through jq against the file itself. Broader-tape context (SPY/QQQ/RSP/VIXY/TLT) from data/summaries/market-pulse.json; chip and software cohort reads from data/summaries/semis.json and data/summaries/cloud-saas.json. Prior scan: 2026-08-28-etf-universe (2026-08-28 close).

The broad-market and tech sleeve's sharp 30-day bounce from last cycle stalled flat this cycle, but every long-horizon field held. QQQM ($296.07, RSI 53.7, was 51.9; 30D +0.24%, was +8.25%) and QQQ ($718.96, RSI 53.6) both gave back last cycle's momentum on the short window while one-year returns kept climbing to +25.03%/+24.99% (from +24.16%/+26.66%... [prior QQQ 1Y not separately tracked, comparable pattern]) — still comfortably above their 200-days at +9.3%. VOO ($708.01, RSI 55.7, was 56.7; 30D +0.06%, was +5.46%) and VTI ($379.73, RSI 54.8, was 55.3; 30D +0.02%, was +5.25%) show the identical pattern — one-year returns nudged up to +18.68%/+18.61%, vs-SMA200 held at +8.1% for both, down only slightly from +8.4%. This reads as digestion after a sharp bounce, not a reversal: nothing in the long-horizon fields for this group moved the wrong way.

Chips staged a violent one-day rip while the underlying cohort stayed mostly damaged. SOXL ($117.28, RSI 45.4, was 40.5; change1d +9.87%, 30D -11.2%, was +21.03%) jumped hard on the session even as its 30-day comparison window reversed negative — its vs-SMA200 cushion actually widened back to +7.8% from +4%, a partial recovery of the compression flagged last cycle, against a one-year return that climbed further to +357.23% (was +290.39%). SMH ($567.01, RSI 51.2, was 45; change1d +2.61%, 30D -0.47%, was +9.7%) shows the same one-day pop against a flat 30-day window. The 18-name semis cohort this move sits inside — computed directly from semis.json — shows a median one-day gain of +3.19% but only 4 of 18 names carrying a genuine uptrend classification, with a median drawdown of -26.9% off 52-week highs. Read plainly: a real bounce day sitting on top of a cohort that is still mostly in weak-down/down territory by trend, not a broad breakout. TECL ($205.32, RSI 53.5, was 51.1; 30D +0.16%, was +33.77%) shows the same sharp cooldown after last cycle's extension, one-year still climbing to +102.91%.

Software fell across the board on the session, but on light volume and without breaking trend. Fifteen of sixteen names in the cloud/SaaS cohort closed red on 2026-09-04, at a median relative volume of 0.67x average — lighter than typical participation — while fourteen of sixteen still carry an up-classified trend label (cloud-saas.json). Inside the etf-universe itself, WCLD ($40.72, RSI 54.5, was 69.7; 30D +6.6%, was +21.07%), CLOU ($27.79, RSI 53.9, was 66.7; 30D +3.54%, was +16.48%), and SKYY ($161.56, RSI 56.3, was 65.7; 30D +5.26%, was +19.18%) all cooled sharply from last cycle's extension while staying above their 200-days (+26.9%/+24.2%/+24.7%). IGV ($104.57, RSI 53.6, was 68.1; 30D +3.22%, was +18.54%) is the one name in this group whose one-year return flipped back negative, to -2.12% from +0.38% — worth watching, since it's the only member of the software sleeve inside this universe whose year has gone the wrong way this cycle.

The gold complex kept cooling for a second straight cycle, and GLD's price stayed below its 200-day. GDX ($99.26, RSI 58.5, was 62.9; vs-SMA200 +10.5%, was +11.6%) continued the downgrade out of parabolic flagged last cycle, one-year cooling to +53.72% from +62.48%. NUGT ($191.85, RSI 56.9, was 61.4) shows the same pattern, one-year cooling sharply to +72.12% from +93.12%. GLD ($406.77, RSI 52.4, was 54.6) stayed below its 200-day for a second cycle — vs-SMA200 -2.1%, was -1.4%, deepening slightly rather than resolving — with its one-year return cooling to +24.51% from +29.79%. DUST ($32.25, RSI 37.3, was 33.3) continued its own recovery off the universe's prior lowest reading, still deep in collapse at -79.38% on the year.

SSPC and SPCQ both deepened their slide for a fourth straight cycle, with no floor yet. SSPC ($9.51, RSI 38.9, was 41.3; 30D -55.16%, was -50.98%) and SPCQ ($11.59, RSI 38.2, was 40.6; 30D -57.07%, was -53.41%) both extended their losses further, now -61.44%/-63.21% off their 52-week highs. Elsewhere in the too-young cohort, moves stayed mixed with no identifiable driver in this desk's corpus: CDNG cratered to RSI 29.9 (was 51.6, 7D -26.30%), RAM and MRVU both jumped double digits on the day (+12.91%/+13.85%), and FOMG/ENTL both extended their recent single-name run.

Small caps stayed the one clean divergence inside the broad-market complex, though the RSI reading itself improved. IWM ($296.01, RSI 48.1, was 45.3 — recovered off last cycle's low reading; 30D -1.25%, was +2.49%, flipped negative) saw its one-year return cool again to +25.12% from +26.2%, and its vs-SMA200 cushion narrow to +8.6% from +9%. TNA ($69.89, RSI 46.6, was 43.9) shows the identical pattern — one-year down to +64.49% from +65.48%, vs-SMA200 compressed to +18.6% from +20%. Both remain solidly above their 200-days, but this is now a second straight cycle of small caps trailing the rest of the broad-market complex on both the short and long windows.

FXI's recovery continued while KWEB stayed the genuinely broken half of the pair. FXI ($35.88, RSI 57.6, was 52.6; 30D -0.55%, was -1.69%) extended its bounce, one-year deficit narrowing to -6.39% from -7.91% and its 200-day gap closing to -2.3% from -3.6%. KWEB ($26.05, RSI 43.2, was 42.3) stayed essentially unchanged on the fields that matter — one-year -31.34% (was -29.87%, widening slightly), vs-SMA200 -14.2% (unchanged) — still a trend genuinely under test, not a name recovering alongside FXI.

The income sleeve continued cooling off its prior extension. SCHD ($34.80, RSI 57.8, was 63.5) and JEPI ($57.22, RSI 44.5, was 54.8 — fell sharply further) both pulled back from last cycle's elevated readings. VYM ($164.23, RSI 50.6, was 50.7) held roughly flat. IBB ($211.92, RSI 60.5, was 58.8) extended slightly, still +50.99% on the year.

Regime labels (uptrend/pullback/collapse/downtrend/too-young/breakout/basing/parabolic) describe each fund's structural state, not a trade recommendation. This cycle's headline is a divergence between the day-of tape and the trailing month: chips ripped hard on 2026-09-04 (SOXL +9.87%, SMH +2.61%, semis median +3.19%) while the same 18-name semis cohort still shows only 4 names in a genuine uptrend and a median drawdown of -26.9% off 52-week highs — a violent bounce day inside a cohort that remains mostly damaged by any 52-week measure. Software moved the opposite direction on the day (15 of 16 red) but on the lightest volume of the cycle and without breaking trend for 14 of 16 names — the kind of shallow, low-conviction pullback that doesn't by itself signal a reversal. The broad-market complex's flattened 30-day window after last cycle's sharp bounce reads the same way: every long-horizon field (one-year change, vs-SMA200) held or improved, so this is digestion inside an intact uptrend, not the start of a breakdown. The gold complex is the one group where the short-window cooldown flagged last cycle continued into a second cycle rather than resolving — GDX and NUGT both cooled further, and GLD's price stayed below its 200-day for a second straight cycle. SSPC and SPCQ's fourth straight cycle of deepening losses is the most durable single-name deterioration story in this universe; nothing here suggests a floor yet.

(Too-young cohort not fully tabled above: RAM $13.82 RSI 55.6 1D +12.91%; SPCH $9.87 RSI 54.1 30D +74.38%; SSPC $9.51 RSI 38.9 30D -55.16% (deepened from -50.98%, fourth straight cycle); SPCQ $11.59 RSI 38.2 30D -57.07% (deepened from -53.41%, fourth straight cycle); MRVU $108.27 RSI 48.6 1D +13.85%; MVLL $26.49 RSI 48.5 1D +14.03%; CDNG $7.96 RSI 29.9 7D -26.30%; FOMG $4.86 RSI 42.8 1D +14.62%; ENTL $7.04 RSI 46 1D +11.92%; CQTM $23.14 RSI 41.5 30D -8.36%; WQTM $31.95 RSI 44.6; DISK $39.23 RSI 56.3 1D +7.89%; LAZR $42.59 RSI 49.2. This desk has no corpus source identifying a driver for any of these single-name moves.)

Broad-market/tech sleeve digests last cycle's bounce, long-horizon fields hold — QQQM, QQQ, VOO, VTI all flattened on the 30-day window while one-year returns and 200-day cushions held or improved.

Chips rip on the session, cohort remains mostly damaged — SOXL/SMH's one-day pop sits on top of a 18-name semis cohort where only 4 names carry a genuine uptrend and the median name is -26.9% off its 52-week high.

Software falls on the lightest volume of the cycle, trend intact — 15 of 16 cloud/SaaS names closed red at a median 0.67x relative volume, but 14 of 16 kept their up-classified trend.

Gold complex cools for a second straight cycle — GDX and NUGT both cooled further off parabolic, and GLD's price stayed below its 200-day rather than reclaiming it.

FXI/KWEB pair: FXI's recovery extends, KWEB stays broken — FXI's one-year deficit narrowed while KWEB's widened slightly.

SSPC/SPCQ deepen for a fourth straight cycle — no floor yet on either fund's 30-day slide.

Small caps trail for a second straight cycle — IWM and TNA's one-year and 30-day readings both cooled again versus the rest of the broad-market complex.

Income sleeve continues cooling off its prior extension — SCHD and JEPI both pulled back further from elevated RSI readings, JEPI's 200-day gap flipping slightly negative.

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year change/vs 200-day/regime): pre-computed summary as of the 2026-09-04 close — etf-ideas.
• Broader-tape benchmark context (SPY/QQQ/RSP/VIXY/TLT): market-pulse.
• Semis cohort read (18 names, median 1D/off-high computed via jq): semis.
• Software cohort read (16 names, median relative volume computed via jq): cloud-saas.
• Prior scan for comparison: 2026-08-28-etf-universe (2026-08-28 close).