The broad-market core (QQQM/QQQ/VOO/VTI) is consolidating flat-to-down on the week while every long-horizon field still points up — RSI sits in the high-40s to low-50s, 7D/30D are mildly negative, but 1-year returns remain +16% to +22% and every name sits 6.8-8.3% above its 200-day average. Underneath that calm surface, small caps cracked hard this week (IWM RSI fell to 38.7 from 51.9 four weeks ago), the gold complex kept cooling for a third straight cycle, and FXI's multi-cycle recovery reversed. Chips, cloud/software, and international names are mixed rather than uniformly one direction.

Data as-of the 2026-09-11 close. Source: etf-ideas, read directly. Prior scan: 2026-09-04-etf-universe.

The broad-market core is a pause, not a reversal. QQQM ($294.39 — RSI 50.8, 7D -0.57%, 30D -1.2%, 3M -0.88%) and QQQ (RSI 50.8, same pattern) both sit flat-to-down on the short windows while their 1-year returns (+22.43%/+22.39%) and 200-day cushions (+8.3%) hold. VOO (RSI 50.3, 1Y +16.21%, vs 200-day +7%) and VTI (RSI 49.1, 1Y +15.87%, vs 200-day +6.8%) show the identical shape, with VOO/VTI's 1-year excess return sitting near flat (-0.01/-0.35) since they largely define the benchmark they're measured against. Nothing in the long-horizon fields for this group moved the wrong way this cycle.

Small caps cracked hard this week, the clearest single deterioration in the broad-market complex. IWM's RSI fell to 38.7 (was 48.1 on 2026-09-04), 30D turned to -4.57% (was -1.25%), and its one-year return cooled to +19.97% from +25.12% four weeks ago — vs 200-day compressed to +5.5% from +8.6%. TNA (3x leveraged, legacy coverage) shows the same shape even more sharply: RSI 37.3 (was 46.6), 1Y +45.22% (was +64.49%), vs 200-day +9% (was +18.6%). Both remain above their 200-days, but this is now a real cooling, not just a lag.

The gold complex extended its cooldown for a third straight cycle, and GLD's price stayed below its 200-day. GLD (RSI 47.5, was 52.4 on 09-04) sits at -4.1% below its 200-day (was -2.1%), deepening again, with its 1-year return cooling to +19.12% from +24.51%. GDX (RSI 54, was 58.5) cooled the same way — 1Y +39.19% (was +53.72%), vs 200-day +7.5% (was +10.5%). This is the third consecutive cycle of the gold complex losing momentum without breaking its longer uptrend outright.

FXI's multi-cycle recovery reversed, while KWEB extended its own slide further. FXI (RSI 40.6, was 57.6 on 09-04) flipped back to strong-down, one-year deficit widening sharply to -15.34% from -6.39%, vs 200-day to -5.8% from -2.3% — a genuine reversal of a recovery flagged as continuing last cycle. KWEB (RSI 32.4, was 43.2) deepened again, 1Y -39.62% (was -31.34%), 1-year excess return -55.84 — still the most structurally broken name in this universe. Elsewhere, cloud/software (WCLD, CLOU, SKYY) all cooled on the week but stayed comfortably above their 200-days (+20-22%) with strong 3-month gains (+18.7% to +26.7%) — a shallow pullback inside an intact trend. IGV is the outlier worth a second look: it still carries a strong-up short-window trend label, but its one-year return is negative (-9.68%, 1-year excess return -25.9) — the trend classifier and the year-long picture disagree.

trend labels (strong-up/weak-up/up/down/weak-down/strong-down) describe the SHORT window only — always cross-check 1-year change and vs 200-day before calling anything a breakdown. XBI is the clearest example this cycle: its trend label reads weak-down off a soft 7-30 day window, but its one-year return is +63.22% with a +47.0 one-year alpha — a deep pullback inside an intact secular trend, not damage. IGV is the mirror case: strong-up on the short window against a negative one-year return — the short-window label is not enough on its own. Leveraged/inverse names (TQQQ, SPXL, UPRO, SOXL, SOXS, TECL, TNA) are shown for transparency because they are pre-existing coverage on this list; none of them appear in Entry Zones or the Action Matrix as a buy candidate — SOXS's -96.52% one-year return is the standing example of what daily-reset decay does to an inverse fund held any length of time.

Capitulation (RSI < 25): None this cycle.

Oversold (RSI 25-40): HYG (28.3), LQD (29.8), KWEB (32.4), DOGG (37.2), TNA (37.3, leveraged/avoid), JETS (37.8), CQTM (41.4), FXI (40.6), INDA (40). HYG/LQD read as genuine bond-market weakness given their negative 1-year returns; KWEB and FXI are structurally damaged (negative 1Y, negative alpha); JETS and DOGG are weak but not deeply broken on the year.

Neutral / Strong (RSI 40+): Everything else, led by EWZ (65.1, near overbought) and the broad-market/tech-sector core sitting mid-40s to mid-50s — consolidating, not extended.

• IWM/TNA: did small-cap weakness stabilize above the 200-day, or does this become a third straight cycle of deterioration? Watch vs 200-day (+5.5%/+9%) for a break.
• FXI: the multi-cycle recovery reversed in one week — is this a single-cycle noise event or a genuine trend change? Next cycle's RSI direction matters more than this one alone.
• GLD/GDX: third straight cycle of cooling — watch whether GLD's 200-day gap (-4.1%) widens further or resolves.
• IGV: the strong-up trend label sits against a negative one-year return (-9.68%) — worth confirming which field is telling the truth before treating this as a healthy uptrend.
• HYG/LQD: both oversold with negative 1-year returns — no causal driver checked this cycle; flag for a rates/credit read if this persists.

• etf-ideas (2026-09-11)
• 2026-09-04-etf-universe (prior scan, comparison basis)