ETF Universe Scan
ETF Universe Scan
Semiconductors handed the lead to cloud software, Brazil broke out, and bonds climbed out of capitulation without repairing their trend: SMH fell 4.32% on the week but stays 19.2% above its 200-day, WCLD closed at its 52-week high, EWZ (RSI 76.2) is the only fund above 70 after a 14.01% week, and HYG and LQD lifted to RSI 31.4 and 34.1 while still sitting under their 200-day averages with negative years. Every equity core fund remains above its 200-day; small caps hold the thinnest cushion at 0.7%.
Data as of the settled Friday, October 9 close, per the desk's price summaries; all 50 rows carry that date. Comparisons to the October 2 edition are direction-only.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Core intact, leadership rotating from chips to cloud software; credit off the floor but still in a downtrend; Brazil extended |
| Leaders | WCLD (at its 52-week high, RSI 66.7), SKYY (RSI 69.3), CLOU, IGV; EWZ (14.01% on the week, RSI 76.2) |
| Laggards | URA (-16.99% over 30 days, -19% vs its 200-day), KWEB (-39.7% 1Y), TAN, INDA; among young funds DISK and DRAM led the weekly declines |
| Biggest single change | HYG and LQD left the capitulation band — RSI 31.4 and 34.1 — but both remain below their 200-days with negative years |
| Caveat | TQQQ, SPXL, UPRO, SOXL, SOXS, TECL and TNA are leveraged or inverse legacy coverage, shown for transparency and never an entry-zone pick. DRAM, DISK, LAZR and CQTM lack a year of history, so no long-trend read exists |
| Key insight | The week's selling hit the AI-hardware sleeve and the youngest thematic funds; the broad core, software and income funds absorbed it. That is rotation inside an intact market, not a broad risk-off |
What's Going On
Chips gave back; software took the lead. SMH closed $603.33, down 4.32% on the week at RSI 53, 10.2% under its 52-week high — but still 19.2% above its 200-day with a one-year gain of 74.77%. That is a pullback inside an intact multi-year trend, not a breakdown. The AI-hardware group sold on October 8 after OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was about $50 billion (CNBC); Bloomberg reported the worry "bled through to other artificial intelligence bets and chipmakers." Cloud funds went the other way: WCLD closed at its 52-week high ($43.74, RSI 66.7, up 6.06% on the week), SKYY (RSI 69.3) sits 0.03% under its high and CLOU 0.07% under, and IGV rose 3.91% — though IGV's one-year return is still negative (-2.59%). No item on file explains the software bid; cause not on file.
Brazil broke out. EWZ closed $43.54, up 14.01% on the week, RSI 76.2, 18.7% above its 200-day and 0.82% under its 52-week high. Brazilian stocks jumped on October 5 after the first round of the presidential election left Bolsonaro the favorite against Lula da Silva, with a runoff scheduled for October 25 (CNBC; Semafor). An event gap this large leaves the fund extended; the runoff is the next test.
Credit lifted off the floor, not out of its downtrend. HYG closed $77.23 (RSI 31.4, -3.2% vs its 200-day, one-year -3.97%) and LQD $102.41 (RSI 34.1, -5.4%, one-year -7.77%). Treasury yields fell from their highest level since 2002 on October 6 (Bloomberg), and on October 8 options traders began calling a bottom in the bond rout after a strong 10-year auction (CNBC). Momentum repaired; the long trend did not. Income funds steadied with them: SCHD closed at RSI 42.8, 3.7% above its 200-day with a one-year gain of 22.37%, and DOGG at 40.3.
The broad core held; small caps did not gain ground. VOO closed $715.59 (RSI 59.3, up 1.14% on the week, 0.4% under its high) and QQQM $309.39 (RSI 61, 1.51% under its high). IWM closed $278.94 at RSI 38.5, down 0.92% on the week and only 0.7% above its 200-day, with a one-year gain of 13.79% — an intact year on a thin cushion.
China, India, uranium and solar stay broken. KWEB rose 4.48% on the week (3.79% on Friday) to RSI 50.5 but sits 13.7% under its 200-day on a -39.7% year; its news pull from October 8 holds fund pages only and nothing covers Friday, so the bounce's cause is not on file. INDA (RSI 33.9, one-year -12.84%), URA (down 16.99% over 30 days, 19% under its 200-day) and TAN (20.1% under) remain below their long averages with negative years. GLD rose 1.17% on the week to RSI 45.8 but is still 7.5% under its 200-day. Among the young funds, DISK (-8.76%), DRAM (-7.43%), CQTM (-7.36%) and LAZR (-6.75%) led the weekly declines; cause not on file.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-10-02 → 2026-10-09)
No membership changes — the universe holds at 50 names.
| Change | Read |
|---|---|
| HYG and LQD left capitulation | Last edition they were the two deepest readings on the board; both now sit in the low-to-mid 30s, still under their 200-days |
| Semis cooled — SMH's momentum fell from the high 60s to the low 50s on a down week | Long trend untouched; XLK (61.3), VGT (61.5) and FTEC (61.4) also eased from the high 60s |
| Cloud software took over the top of the board — WCLD, CLOU, SKYY at or within a tenth of a point of 52-week highs | Last edition they were mid-pack; IGV's year is still negative |
| EWZ broke out — now the only fund above RSI 70 | Last edition it was a mid-range intact trend |
| Income left the oversold band — DOGG and SCHD both back above 40 | Last edition DOGG was in the 20s and SCHD on the 30 line |
| KWEB and FXI bounced to RSI near 50 | Both still below 200-days with negative years |
| JETS slid into the oversold band (RSI 37.3) | Still under its 200-day; year positive |
| IWM's cushion over its 200-day narrowed to 0.7% | The year is intact; the line is close |
| IGPT and AIS cooled from the low 60s to RSI 52.5 and 50.6 | Both still 23.5% and 22.8% above their 200-days |
| TNA's gap below its 200-day widened | Leveraged, reported only |
How To Read The Board
Everything here is raw screen evidence: price, momentum, moving-average position and return windows from the desk's price summaries. A low momentum reading describes the recent tape, not a recommendation; the question is whether the long trend underneath is intact (above the 200-day, positive year) or under test. Leveraged and inverse funds are reported for completeness and are never picks. Funds under a year old show no long-trend read. No fund-flow or premium data sits in this source.
Price Table
All rows as of 2026-10-09.
Broad Market
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQM | $309.39 | 61 | $303.68 | 1.9% | 0.23% | 4.89% | 23.06% | 11.8% | 🟢 Intact |
| QQQ | $751.27 | 60.9 | $737.54 | 1.9% | 0.23% | 4.88% | 23.02% | 11.8% | 🟢 Intact |
| VOO | $715.59 | 59.3 | $706.45 | 1.3% | 1.14% | 2.1% | 15.96% | 7.6% | 🟢 Intact |
| VTI | $381.94 | 57.6 | $377.61 | 1.1% | 1.05% | 1.7% | 15.51% | 7.1% | 🟢 Intact |
| IWM | $278.94 | 38.5 | $282.06 | -1.1% | -0.92% | -4.03% | 13.79% | 0.7% | 🟡 Intact, thin cushion over the 200-day |
Semis / Chips / Quantum
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | $603.33 | 53 | $597.06 | 1.1% | -4.32% | 5.06% | 75.32% | 19.2% | 🟢 Intact, pulling back |
| QTUM | $152.06 | 51.2 | $151.24 | 0.5% | -2.56% | 2.88% | 35.56% | 11.9% | 🟢 Intact |
| WQTM | $31.13 | 41.2 | $31.98 | -2.7% | -4.22% | -2.72% | 2.77% | 0.2% | 🟡 On its 200-day, year barely positive |
| CQTM | $21.65 | 34.5 | $23.15 | -6.5% | -7.36% | -6.52% | n/a | n/a | 🟡 Short history, no long-trend read |
Tech Sector
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGT | $127.98 | 61.5 | $125.21 | 2.2% | -0.26% | 5.86% | 33.37% | 19.2% | 🟢 Intact |
| XLK | $198.78 | 61.3 | $194.46 | 2.2% | -0.52% | 5.93% | 37.7% | 19.7% | 🟢 Intact |
| FTEC | $305.37 | 61.4 | $298.85 | 2.2% | -0.3% | 5.84% | 33.51% | 19.1% | 🟢 Intact |
Cloud / Software
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WCLD | $43.74 | 66.7 | $41.29 | 5.9% | 6.06% | 12.44% | 22.59% | 33.2% | 🟢 Intact, at its high |
| CLOU | $30.11 | 65.6 | $28.68 | 5% | 4.51% | 10.05% | 27.37% | 30.6% | 🟢 Intact, at its high |
| SKYY | $174.88 | 69.3 | $166.46 | 5.1% | 4.01% | 10.59% | 27.19% | 30.7% | 🟢 Intact, at its high |
| IGV | $112.67 | 65.8 | $107.46 | 4.8% | 3.91% | 10.65% | -2.59% | 20.2% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
Gold / Metals
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | $384.58 | 45.8 | $388.01 | -0.9% | 1.17% | -4.65% | 5.24% | -7.5% | 🟡 Below 200-day, year still positive |
| GDX | $89.28 | 46.7 | $90.99 | -1.9% | 1.71% | -10.24% | 18.08% | -2% | 🟡 Below 200-day, year still positive |
Income / Dividend
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JEPQ | $61.09 | 57.5 | $60.72 | 0.6% | 0.08% | 2.19% | 6% | 3.5% | 🟢 Intact |
| JEPI | $56.77 | 52.8 | $56.42 | 0.6% | 1.19% | 0.41% | 0.04% | -0.8% | 🟡 Just below 200-day, year flat |
| SCHD | $33.04 | 42.8 | $33.27 | -0.7% | 0.98% | -3.08% | 22.37% | 3.7% | 🟢 Intact |
| VYM | $158.75 | 48 | $158.16 | 0.4% | 1.46% | -2.42% | 13.13% | 1.7% | 🟢 Intact |
| QYLD | $18.69 | 67.9 | $18.54 | 0.8% | 0.32% | 1.91% | 8.98% | 4.3% | 🟢 Intact |
| XYLD | $41.93 | 63.2 | $41.65 | 0.7% | 0.48% | 1.04% | 6.18% | 2.9% | 🟢 Intact |
| DOGG | $21.06 | 40.3 | $21.24 | -0.8% | 1.59% | -3.44% | 5.41% | -3% | 🟡 Below 200-day, year still positive |
Bonds / Credit
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HYG | $77.23 | 31.4 | $77.78 | -0.7% | 0.42% | -2.22% | -3.97% | -3.2% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| LQD | $102.41 | 34.1 | $103.26 | -0.8% | 0.57% | -2.75% | -7.77% | -5.4% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
Biotech
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XBI | $153.77 | 46.2 | $155.38 | -1% | -0.43% | -3.52% | 44.36% | 10.2% | 🟢 Intact |
| IBB | $206.49 | 50.7 | $206.46 | 0% | 0.58% | 0.49% | 35.8% | 13.5% | 🟢 Intact |
International
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWZ | $43.54 | 76.2 | $38.77 | 12.3% | 14.01% | 14.37% | 46.75% | 18.7% | 🟠 Intact, extended |
| FXI | $34.24 | 49.9 | $34.1 | 0.4% | 3.16% | -0.9% | -15.48% | -5.2% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| INDA | $46.03 | 33.9 | $47.22 | -2.5% | -1.05% | -5.42% | -12.84% | -7.3% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| KWEB | $24.93 | 50.5 | $24.57 | 1.5% | 4.48% | 0.61% | -39.7% | -13.7% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
Thematic / Energy / Other
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAN | $43.75 | 41.8 | $44.5 | -1.7% | -0.68% | -8.36% | -7.97% | -20.1% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| ICLN | $17.28 | 47.7 | $17.31 | -0.2% | 0.52% | -4.05% | 7.06% | -8.3% | 🟡 Below 200-day, year still positive |
| URA | $38.9 | 38.6 | $40.95 | -5% | -2.24% | -16.99% | -24.45% | -19% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| JETS | $27.45 | 37.3 | $28.21 | -2.7% | -2.45% | -2.03% | 10.55% | -3.8% | 🟡 Below 200-day, year still positive |
| DRAM | $57.19 | 44.8 | $59.64 | -4.1% | -7.43% | -7.13% | n/a | n/a | 🟡 Short history, no long-trend read |
| RONB | $25.03 | 63.1 | $23.89 | 4.8% | 3.99% | 6.92% | n/a | 5.5% | 🟡 Short history, no long-trend read |
| DISK | $36.03 | 41.4 | $38.36 | -6.1% | -8.76% | -10.37% | n/a | n/a | 🟡 Short history, no long-trend read |
| LAZR | $45.02 | 49.9 | $44.85 | 0.4% | -6.75% | 0.56% | n/a | n/a | 🟡 Short history, no long-trend read |
Recently Added Coverage (IGPT, AIS)
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IGPT | $100.21 | 52.5 | $100.51 | -0.3% | -2.81% | 3.43% | 74.46% | 23.5% | 🟢 Intact |
| AIS | $73.8 | 50.6 | $73.91 | -0.2% | -4.91% | 2.22% | 96.91% | 22.8% | 🟢 Intact |
Leveraged / Inverse (legacy coverage — reported only, never a pick)
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TQQQ | $81.28 | 59.3 | $77.52 | 4.8% | 0.33% | 13.6% | 49.88% | 26.4% | ⚠️ Avoid (leveraged) |
| SPXL | $297.97 | 58.7 | $287.23 | 3.7% | 3.23% | 5.89% | 37.79% | 18.7% | ⚠️ Avoid (leveraged) |
| UPRO | $155.72 | 58.5 | $150.17 | 3.7% | 3.21% | 5.8% | 36.85% | 18.4% | ⚠️ Avoid (leveraged) |
| SOXL | $139.76 | 49.2 | $140.4 | -0.5% | -14.63% | 11.04% | 230.87% | 16.1% | ⚠️ Avoid (leveraged) |
| SOXS | $34.39 | 44.2 | $36.36 | -5.4% | 15.75% | -20.47% | -95.85% | -82.2% | ⚠️ Avoid (inverse, structural decay) |
| TNA | $58.11 | 37.1 | $60.42 | -3.8% | -2.91% | -12.11% | 23.93% | -4.4% | ⚠️ Avoid (leveraged) |
| TECL | $242.35 | 60 | $228.57 | 6% | -1.61% | 16.96% | 79.39% | 46.6% | ⚠️ Avoid (leveraged) |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): None. HYG and LQD, last edition's only two, both left the band.
Oversold (RSI 25-40): HYG (31.4), INDA (33.9), LQD (34.1), CQTM (34.5), JETS (37.3), IWM (38.5), URA (38.6). Leveraged in the band: TNA (37.1). Of these, only IWM has a positive year above its 200-day; the rest are below their long averages, and CQTM has no long-trend read.
Neutral / Strong (RSI 40+): everything else. EWZ (76.2) is the only fund above 70; next are SKYY (69.3), QYLD (67.9), WCLD (66.7), IGV (65.8) and CLOU (65.6).
Entry Zones
Conditions, not advice. Each line states what would have to be true, not what to do.
| Stock | Entry Zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| SMH | Current $603.33; 20-day $597.06, support shelf $574.94, 200-day $506.24 | Pullback inside a strong long trend (75.32% 1Y); a flag needs the 20-day or the shelf to hold and the weekly selling to stop |
| XBI | Current $153.77; 200-day $139.57, support shelf $126.97 | Under its 20-day inside a 44.36% year, 10.2% above its 200-day — a discount with the trend intact |
| IWM | Current $278.94; 200-day $277.06, support shelf $262.27 | Year intact; the 200-day decides whether this stays a pullback |
| HYG / LQD | HYG $77.23 (200-day $79.8); LQD $102.41 (200-day $108.21) | Momentum off the floor; negative years and price under the 200-day mean no repair yet. A reclaim is the condition |
| GLD | Current $384.58; support shelf $375.7, 200-day $415.65 | Below its 200-day; the reclaim is the line to watch |
| EWZ | Current $43.54; 20-day $38.77 | Event-driven breakout at RSI 76.2; only a pullback that holds the breakout area would be a zone |
| WCLD / SKYY | WCLD $43.74 (20-day $41.29); SKYY $174.88 (20-day $166.46) | At highs; no discount — interesting on a flag back toward the 20-day |
| URA / TAN | URA $38.9 (200-day $48.04); TAN $43.75 (200-day $54.75) | Negative years, deep under their 200-days; structural damage, not zones |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| WCLD, CLOU, SKYY | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | At 52-week highs; extended, not a chase |
| IGV | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Above its 200-day, year still negative |
| SMH, XLK, VGT, FTEC | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Intact long trends cooling; SMH is the pullback to watch for a flag |
| QQQM, QQQ, VOO, VTI | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Core intact near highs |
| XBI, IBB | 🟢 | 📈 Accumulate | Under 20-days inside strong multi-year trends |
| IWM | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Oversold momentum, 0.7% over its 200-day |
| EWZ | 🟠 | ⚠️ Avoid chasing | Event breakout at RSI 76.2; runoff scheduled for October 25 |
| SCHD, VYM, JEPQ, QYLD, XYLD | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Income repaired above 200-days |
| DOGG, JEPI | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Just under their 200-days |
| HYG, LQD | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Off capitulation, still in a downtrend |
| GLD, GDX | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Below 200-days, years positive |
| URA, TAN | 🔴 | ❌ Don't buy | Structural damage |
| KWEB, FXI, INDA | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Negative years below 200-days; KWEB's bounce has no cause on file |
| JETS, ICLN | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Below 200-days, years positive |
| IGPT, AIS, QTUM | 🟢 | 🔍 Watch | Intact, pulling back from recent highs |
| DRAM, RONB, DISK, LAZR, CQTM, WQTM | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Too young or too flat for a long-trend verdict; most slid on the week |
| TQQQ, SPXL, UPRO, SOXL, SOXS, TECL, TNA | ⚠️ | ⚠️ Avoid | Leveraged/inverse legacy coverage; never a pick |
What To Watch Next
- Do HYG and LQD reclaim their 200-days ($79.80 and $108.21)? Momentum repaired this week; the trend has not.
- Does SMH hold its 20-day ($597.06) or the $575.20 shelf? A tight flag there would be the setup inside a 74.77% year; a break of the shelf would deepen the pullback.
- IWM's 200-day ($277.06). The year is +13.79%; a close under that line turns a pullback into a trend under test.
- Brazil's runoff, scheduled for October 25. EWZ is pricing the first-round result; the runoff is the event that confirms or reverses it.
- Scheduled macro and chip events: the September CPI is scheduled for October 14 and TSMC's report for October 15 (per the October 8 market brief) — both bear on the rate line and the chip pullback.
- Software at highs. Can WCLD, CLOU and SKYY hold above their 20-days once momentum cools from the high 60s?
Sources
- Tape data: pre-computed desk summary, settled 2026-10-09 close (etf-ideas).
- OpenAI revenue report and the AI-hardware selloff: CNBC, October 8 (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/open-ai-revenue-nvidia-oracle-coreweave.html); Bloomberg, October 8 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-08/us-stock-futures-slip-on-mounting-energy-shock-ai-bubble-fears). Captures: 2026-10-08-cnbc-nvidia-oracle-coreweave-and-other-ai-stocks-sink-on-openai-r-108377571, 2026-10-08-bloomberg-nasdaq-100-drops-1-4-as-openai-warning-deepens-bubble-fears-tml5n5kjh6v400.
- Brazil first-round result: CNBC, October 5 (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/05/brazilian-stocks-jump-bolsonaro-now-heavy-favorite-to-win-presidency.html); Semafor, October 5 (https://www.semafor.com/article/10/05/2026/brazilian-stock-markets-surges-following-bolsonaro-victory).
- Treasury yields: Bloomberg, October 6 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-06/us-yields-fall-from-2002-high-as-oil-dips-bessent-vows-on-debt); CNBC, October 8 (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/options-traders-start-calling-bottom-on-bond-rout-after-bullet-bid-10-year-auction.html).
- Scheduled dates (CPI, TSMC): the October 8 market brief (2026-10-08-market-brief).
- KWEB news pull dated 2026-10-08 (fund pages only); no October 9 captures on file; stock-events checked for October 5-9.
- Prior edition: 2026-10-02-etf-universe (direction-only comparisons).
Related
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