ETF Universe Scan
ETF Universe Scan
The Nasdaq-100 funds lost about 5.5% in a week, and the damage landed where last week's leadership sat: semiconductors (SMH down 10.53%, RSI 31.4), cloud software (SKYY down 9.37%) and the young thematic funds (DISK, LAZR, DRAM and AIS each down 16% to 20%). Most long trends survived — QQQM, VOO, SMH and XLK all still close above their 200-day averages — but IWM slipped 2.6% under its 200-day, and only six unleveraged funds rose: DOGG, SCHD, INDA, LQD, VYM and JEPI.
Prices are the settled Friday, October 16 close from the price summaries; all 50 rows carry that date. Comparisons to the October 9 scan are direction-only and use that edition's printed readings. Causes were not checked for any move below.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Growth-led washout inside mostly intact long trends; small caps now under their 200-day; no fund above RSI 70 |
| Leaders (7D) | DOGG (4.99%, RSI 67), SCHD (3.96%), INDA (3.54%), LQD (0.97%), VYM (0.94%) |
| Laggards (7D) | Young funds DISK (-20.34%), LAZR (-19.12%), DRAM (-18.78%), AIS (-16.22%); among older funds SMH (-10.53%), IGPT (-10.83%), WQTM (-10.57%) |
| Biggest single change | SMH momentum fell from the low 50s to RSI 31.4 while it holds 5.6% above its 200-day with a 57.24% one-year gain — a pullback in an intact trend |
| Caveat | TQQQ, SPXL, UPRO, SOXL, SOXS, TECL and TNA are leveraged or inverse legacy coverage, shown in the table only. DRAM, DISK, LAZR and CQTM lack a year of history, so no long-trend read exists. No fund-flow data |
| Key insight | Last week was rotation inside an intact market; this week the rotation became a broad growth selloff. The question now is which funds keep their 200-day: the core does, small caps and gold do not |
What's Going On
The growth selloff hit everything tied to AI and the Nasdaq-100. QQQM closed $292.26, down 5.54% on the week and down 2.51% on Friday alone, RSI 35 (from 61 on October 9), 4.4% under its 20-day and 5.2% above its 200-day with a one-year gain of 18.32%. QQQ matched it (down 5.52%). The broad market fell far less: VOO down 1.95% to $701.61 (RSI 43.7, 2.35% under its 52-week high) and VTI down 2.06%. That gap says the week was a growth-and-chips event, not a market-wide one.
Chips and software give back the highs. SMH closed $539.79, down 10.53% (Friday down 3.41%, volume 2.52 times average), 10.2% under its 20-day, 5.6% above its 200-day with a one-year gain of 57.24% and 19.65% under its 52-week high. That is a deep pullback inside an intact multi-year trend, with the 200-day ($511.35) the next line. XLK, VGT and FTEC sit at RSI 33.3, 34.3 and 34.1, each about 9.5% to 10% above its 200-day. Cloud funds that closed October 9 at or within a tenth of a point of 52-week highs are now 6.49% (WCLD), 7.94% (CLOU) and 9.84% (SKYY) under them, yet still 25.7%, 20.9% and 17.7% above their 200-days. IGV is down 7.39% and a one-year loss of 7.5% — above its 200-day, but the year stayed negative.
Small caps lose the line; income steadies; bonds stay under. IWM closed $270.44, down 3.05%, RSI 31.9 (from 38.5), 2.6% under its 200-day (it sat 0.7% above on October 9) and a one-year gain of 10.36%: a long trend now under test, with $277.65 the reclaim level. Income funds rose into the selloff — DOGG up 4.99% (RSI 67), SCHD up 3.96% (RSI 65.4, 7.3% above its 200-day), VYM up 0.94% — while the Nasdaq-linked covered-call funds fell (JEPQ down 3.73%, RSI 30, now 0.4% under its 200-day). LQD rose 0.97% to RSI 50.5 (from 34.1) but remains 4.3% under its 200-day with a one-year loss of 8.02%; HYG held RSI 32.4, 3.6% under its 200-day. GLD is down 0.67% to $382.01, 7.9% under its 200-day, and its one-year return turned negative (-3.64%) from positive on October 9.
Brazil cooled, thematic funds broke. EWZ gave back 3.93% on the week but is up 11.61% over 30 days, RSI 61.7 (from 76.2), 13.2% above its 200-day with a one-year gain of 43.06%; the October 9 scan listed a presidential runoff scheduled for October 25. INDA rose 3.54% to RSI 52.4 (from 33.9) but is still 3.7% under its 200-day. DISK (RSI 24.8), LAZR, DRAM and CQTM fell 15% to 20%, AIS down 16.22% and IGPT down 10.83%; URA is down 14.36% over 30 days and 25.9% under its 200-day. Cause not checked for any of these.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-10-09 → 2026-10-16)
No membership changes — the universe holds at 50 names.
- Funds below RSI 40 grew from 7 to 24 (excluding leveraged). October 9: HYG, INDA, LQD, CQTM, JETS, IWM, URA. Now includes SMH, QQQM, QQQ, XLK, VGT, FTEC, XBI, IGPT, AIS, QTUM
- First capitulation reading — DISK (RSI 24.8). Last edition none; DISK has no long-trend read
- Cloud software left its highs — WCLD, CLOU, SKYY were at or within 0.07% of 52-week highs. Now 6.49% to 9.84% under; all three still far above 200-days
- IWM crossed under its 200-day (2.6% under). October 9: 0.7% above; the year is still positive
- JEPQ slipped under its 200-day (0.4%). JEPI stays just under (0.3%)
- EWZ lost its overbought reading — RSI 76.2 to 61.7. No fund is above RSI 70 now
- LQD and INDA rebuilt momentum — RSI 50.5 and 52.4. Both remain under 200-days with negative years
- GLD's one-year return turned negative. Under its 200-day by 7.9% (7.5% on October 9)
- URA and TAN extended below their 200-days — 25.9% and 23.3% under. Last edition 19% and 20.1%
How To Read The Board
Everything here is raw screen evidence: price, momentum, moving-average position and return windows from the provider price summaries. A low momentum reading describes the recent tape, not a recommendation; the question is whether the long trend underneath is intact (above the 200-day, positive year) or under test. Leveraged and inverse funds appear in the table for completeness and never as picks. Funds under a year old show no long-trend read. No fund-flow or premium data sits in this source, and no cause was checked for any move.
Price Table
All rows as of 2026-10-16. Order: broad market, semis and quantum, tech, cloud, gold, income, bonds, biotech, international, thematic, then leveraged and inverse.
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQM | $292.26 | 35 | $305.74 | -4.4% | -5.54% | 0.71% | 18.32% | 5.2% | 🟢 Intact, near oversold |
| QQQ | $709.8 | 35 | $742.52 | -4.4% | -5.52% | 0.72% | 18.3% | 5.2% | 🟢 Intact, near oversold |
| VOO | $701.61 | 43.7 | $709.31 | -1.1% | -1.95% | 1.21% | 15.51% | 5.2% | 🟢 Intact |
| VTI | $374.07 | 42.5 | $378.74 | -1.2% | -2.06% | 0.76% | 14.83% | 4.6% | 🟢 Intact |
| IWM | $270.44 | 31.9 | $279.31 | -3.2% | -3.05% | -4.75% | 10.36% | -2.6% | 🟡 Below 200-day, year still positive, near oversold |
| SMH | $539.79 | 31.4 | $601.04 | -10.2% | -10.53% | -1.06% | 57.24% | 5.6% | 🟢 Intact, near oversold |
| QTUM | $137.14 | 29.5 | $150.92 | -9.1% | -9.81% | -4.28% | 24.07% | 0.4% | 🟡 On its 200-day, year positive, oversold |
| WQTM | $27.84 | 26.8 | $31.38 | -11.3% | -10.57% | -10.37% | -6.55% | -10.6% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year, oversold |
| CQTM | $18.37 | 25.8 | $22.38 | -17.9% | -15.15% | -17.14% | n/a | n/a | 🟡 Short history, no long-trend read, oversold |
| VGT | $118.83 | 34.3 | $126.02 | -5.7% | -7.15% | -0.08% | 26.7% | 9.9% | 🟢 Intact, near oversold |
| XLK | $183.47 | 33.3 | $195.82 | -6.3% | -7.7% | -0.25% | 28.97% | 9.5% | 🟢 Intact, near oversold |
| FTEC | $283.46 | 34.1 | $300.79 | -5.8% | -7.17% | -0.12% | 26.7% | 9.9% | 🟢 Intact, near oversold |
| WCLD | $41.5 | 49.6 | $41.74 | -0.6% | -5.12% | 1.57% | 21.59% | 25.7% | 🟢 Intact |
| CLOU | $28.07 | 45.3 | $28.95 | -3% | -6.78% | 0.18% | 21.99% | 20.9% | 🟢 Intact |
| SKYY | $158.51 | 39.9 | $167.44 | -5.3% | -9.37% | -2.09% | 18.49% | 17.7% | 🟢 Intact, near oversold |
| IGV | $104.34 | 43.3 | $108.29 | -3.6% | -7.39% | -0.59% | -7.5% | 11.3% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| GLD | $382.01 | 45.5 | $384.32 | -0.6% | -0.67% | -2.48% | -3.64% | -7.9% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| GDX | $87.71 | 46.2 | $89.07 | -1.5% | -1.76% | -5.48% | 3.87% | -3.7% | 🟡 Below 200-day, year still positive |
| JEPQ | $58.81 | 30 | $60.88 | -3.4% | -3.73% | -0.47% | 2.96% | -0.4% | 🟡 On its 200-day, year positive, near oversold |
| JEPI | $57.04 | 56.5 | $56.61 | 0.8% | 0.48% | 1.98% | 0.94% | -0.3% | 🟡 On its 200-day, year positive |
| SCHD | $34.35 | 65.4 | $33.2 | 3.5% | 3.96% | 1.51% | 29.28% | 7.3% | 🟢 Intact |
| VYM | $160.25 | 55.7 | $157.91 | 1.5% | 0.94% | 0.29% | 14.88% | 2.5% | 🟢 Intact |
| QYLD | $18.32 | 37.9 | $18.6 | -1.5% | -1.98% | 0.11% | 6.51% | 2.1% | 🟢 Intact, near oversold |
| XYLD | $41.8 | 53.3 | $41.75 | 0.1% | -0.31% | 1.33% | 5.96% | 2.5% | 🟢 Intact |
| DOGG | $22.11 | 67 | $21.25 | 4% | 4.99% | 2.69% | 10.99% | 1.8% | 🟢 Intact |
| HYG | $76.86 | 32.4 | $77.4 | -0.7% | -0.48% | -1.99% | -4.53% | -3.6% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year, near oversold |
| LQD | $103.4 | 50.5 | $102.85 | 0.5% | 0.97% | -1.01% | -8.02% | -4.3% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| XBI | $144.32 | 35.9 | $153.29 | -5.9% | -6.15% | -6.4% | 33.74% | 3% | 🟢 Intact, near oversold |
| IBB | $201.99 | 45.8 | $206.27 | -2.1% | -2.18% | -0.2% | 31.66% | 10.5% | 🟢 Intact |
| EWZ | $41.83 | 61.7 | $39.98 | 4.6% | -3.93% | 11.61% | 43.06% | 13.2% | 🟢 Intact |
| FXI | $33.84 | 45.7 | $34.03 | -0.6% | -1.17% | -0.24% | -15.38% | -6% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| INDA | $47.66 | 52.4 | $47.06 | 1.3% | 3.54% | 0.42% | -11.86% | -3.7% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| KWEB | $24.41 | 44.5 | $24.59 | -0.7% | -2.09% | 0.7% | -38.25% | -14.7% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| TAN | $41.85 | 36.1 | $43.85 | -4.6% | -4.34% | -6.21% | -12.87% | -23.3% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year, near oversold |
| ICLN | $16.33 | 34.8 | $17.12 | -4.6% | -5.5% | -5.72% | -2.74% | -13.4% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year, near oversold |
| URA | $35.43 | 30.7 | $39.57 | -10.5% | -8.92% | -14.36% | -36.44% | -25.9% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year, near oversold |
| JETS | $25.85 | 31.2 | $27.8 | -7% | -5.83% | -7.01% | 3.65% | -9.2% | 🟡 Below 200-day, year still positive, near oversold |
| DRAM | $46.45 | 27.1 | $58.18 | -20.2% | -18.78% | -16.05% | n/a | n/a | 🟡 Short history, no long-trend read, oversold |
| RONB | $24.17 | 49.8 | $24.18 | 0% | -3.44% | 2.98% | n/a | 2% | 🟡 Above 200-day, short history |
| DISK | $28.7 | 24.8 | $37.04 | -22.5% | -20.34% | -20.06% | n/a | n/a | 🟡 Short history, no long-trend read, oversold |
| LAZR | $36.41 | 30.7 | $44.21 | -17.6% | -19.12% | -14.33% | n/a | n/a | 🟡 Short history, no long-trend read, near oversold |
| IGPT | $89.36 | 28.7 | $100.44 | -11% | -10.83% | -4.64% | 57.82% | 9% | 🟢 Intact, oversold |
| AIS | $61.83 | 27.9 | $73.49 | -15.9% | -16.22% | -8.99% | 63.79% | 1.6% | 🟢 Intact, oversold |
| TQQQ | $68.21 | 33.8 | $78.8 | -13.4% | -16.08% | 0.41% | 33.67% | 5.2% | ⚠️ Avoid (leveraged) |
| SPXL | $280.17 | 42.5 | $290.46 | -3.5% | -5.97% | 3.17% | 36.58% | 10.9% | ⚠️ Avoid (leveraged) |
| UPRO | $146.43 | 42.4 | $151.82 | -3.5% | -5.97% | 3.05% | 35.67% | 10.7% | ⚠️ Avoid (leveraged) |
| SOXL | $93.67 | 30 | $141.49 | -33.8% | -32.98% | -9.91% | 130.88% | -23.3% | ⚠️ Avoid (leveraged) |
| SOXS | $49.23 | 67.6 | $34.89 | 41.1% | 43.15% | -1.76% | -93.88% | -72.5% | ⚠️ Avoid (inverse, structural decay) |
| TNA | $52.71 | 30.7 | $58.53 | -9.9% | -9.29% | -14.94% | 13.45% | -13.5% | ⚠️ Avoid (leveraged) |
| TECL | $188.71 | 32.5 | $232.31 | -18.8% | -22.13% | -2.65% | 49.71% | 12.6% | ⚠️ Avoid (leveraged) |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): DISK (24.8) — a young fund with no long-trend read.
Oversold (RSI 25-40): CQTM (25.8), WQTM (26.8), DRAM (27.1), AIS (27.9), IGPT (28.7), QTUM (29.5), JEPQ (30), URA (30.7), LAZR (30.7), JETS (31.2), SMH (31.4), IWM (31.9), HYG (32.4), XLK (33.3), FTEC (34.1), VGT (34.3), ICLN (34.8), QQQM (35), QQQ (35), XBI (35.9), TAN (36.1), QYLD (37.9), SKYY (39.9). Leveraged in the band: SOXL (30), TNA (30.7), TECL (32.5), TQQQ (33.8). Momentum washed, 200-day above and positive year: AIS, IGPT, QTUM, SMH, XLK, FTEC, VGT, QQQM, QQQ, XBI, QYLD, SKYY. Long trend under test (at or under the 200-day): WQTM, JEPQ, URA, JETS, IWM, HYG, ICLN, TAN. No long-trend read: CQTM, DRAM, LAZR.
Neutral / Strong (RSI 40+): everything else. Nothing is above 70; the highest are DOGG (67), SCHD (65.4), EWZ (61.7).
Entry Zones
Conditions, not advice. Levels come from the price summaries.
| Fund | Entry Zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| SMH | Current $539.79; 200-day $511.35, 20-day $601.04, support shelf $396.81 | Pullback after a 57.24% one-year gain; the 200-day is the first line that decides whether it stays a flag |
| QQQM | Current $292.26; 20-day $305.74, 200-day $277.88, shelf $255.43 | Intact year (one-year gain 18.32%) with momentum at RSI 35; a 20-day reclaim comes before any breakout |
| XBI | Current $144.32; 200-day $140.16, shelf $128.82 | Close to its 200-day after a 33.74% one-year gain; holding it is the condition |
| IWM | Current $270.44; 200-day $277.65, shelf $262.27 | Under the 200-day with a positive year; a reclaim is the condition |
| WCLD / SKYY | WCLD $41.5 (20-day $41.74, 200-day $33.02); SKYY $158.51 (20-day $167.44, shelf $138.28) | Intact trends, off their highs; a flag needs the 20-day area to hold |
| EWZ | Current $41.83; 20-day $39.98, shelf $38.65, 200-day $36.94 | Cooled from overbought after a 43.06% one-year gain; the shelf is the line before the runoff |
| HYG / LQD | HYG $76.86 (200-day $79.71); LQD $103.4 (200-day $108.02) | Negative years under the 200-day; a reclaim is the condition |
| GLD | Current $382.01; shelf $375.7, 200-day $414.98 | Negative year, -7.9% vs the 200-day, close to its shelf; no zone until the shelf holds |
| URA / TAN | URA $35.43 (200-day $47.81); TAN $41.85 (200-day $54.57) | Negative years deep under 200-days; damage, not zones |
Action Matrix
| Fund | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMH, XLK, VGT, FTEC | 🟢 | 🔍 Watch | Intact trends in a washout; SMH is the flag candidate |
| QQQM, QQQ | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Under their 20-days, above their 200-days |
| VOO, VTI | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Shallow pullback, above 200-days |
| WCLD, CLOU, SKYY | 🟢 | 🔍 Watch | Off highs, trends intact |
| IGV | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Above its 200-day, year still negative |
| XBI, IBB | 🟢 | 📈 Accumulate | XBI near its 200-day; trends intact |
| IWM | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Lost its 200-day, year positive |
| IGPT, AIS, QTUM | 🟢 | 🔍 Watch | Oversold momentum, thin to moderate cushions |
| SCHD, VYM, DOGG, JEPI | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Rose in a down week |
| JEPQ, QYLD | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Nasdaq-linked income gave back; JEPQ under its 200-day |
| EWZ | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Cooled; runoff scheduled October 25 |
| HYG, LQD | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Negative years under 200-days |
| GLD, GDX | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Below 200-days |
| URA, TAN, ICLN | 🔴 | ❌ Don't buy | Negative years, deep under 200-days |
| KWEB, FXI, INDA | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Under 200-days with negative years |
| DRAM, DISK, LAZR, CQTM, WQTM, JETS | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Too young or too weak for a long-trend verdict |
What To Watch Next
- SMH's 200-day ($511.35). It closed at $539.79; a close under that line turns a pullback into a trend under test.
- QQQM's 20-day ($305.74) and 200-day ($277.88). A reclaim of the first is the first repair; a close under the second would break the core.
- IWM's 200-day ($277.65). A close back above reverses this week's break.
- Do HYG and LQD reclaim their 200-days ($79.71 and $108.02)?
- GLD's shelf ($375.70). A break extends a year already negative.
- Brazil's runoff, scheduled for October 25 (per the October 9 scan), against EWZ's shelf ($38.65).
- Do the young funds stabilize? DISK sits at RSI 24.8; a second weekly drop of 15% or more would be a pattern.
Sources
- Tape data: pre-computed price summary, settled 2026-10-16 close (etf-ideas); provider per row: Polygon (Massive).
- Brazil runoff date and the prior-week readings quoted for comparison: prior edition 2026-10-09-etf-universe (which cites CNBC, October 5, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/05/brazilian-stocks-jump-bolsonaro-now-heavy-favorite-to-win-presidency.html, and Semafor, October 5, https://www.semafor.com/article/10/05/2026/brazilian-stock-markets-surges-following-bolsonaro-victory).
- No news or capture pull was run for this edition; moves are described, not explained.
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