The defense-prime layer that anchored the book last cycle cracked this week — NOC joined the collapse tier for the first time (RSI 51.1 → 43.5, regime downgraded), AXON's flagged rollover deepened further (RSI 61.1 → 48.1), and DFEN followed through on last cycle's cooldown into an outright downtrend downgrade. The collapse-regime bucket grew from six names to ten, with PL and DPRO the freshest additions. RTX and TDY remain the steadiest holds in the book.

Data as-of 2026-07-17 close for 21 of 22 names. MSI carries a 2026-07-16 bar this cycle. Prior scan: 2026-07-11-drone-defense (data as-of 2026-07-10 close).

Last cycle's steadier defense-prime/ETF layer (RTX, TDY, ITA, DFEN, NOC) was reading as digestion after a strong run. This cycle, part of that layer broke: NOC's regime downgraded to collapse for the first time — RSI fell from 51.1 to 43.5 and its distance from its 52-week high widened to -32.61%. DFEN followed the cooldown flagged last cycle into an actual downtrend downgrade, with its 30-day reading flipping from +2.51% to -11.86%. AXON's rollover, first flagged two cycles ago at RSI 79.4, continued to deepen — RSI is now 48.1 (was 61.1), price down another -5.81% today alone, and its regime is now tagged downtrend. MSI's regime also flipped to downtrend, though its read is a day behind the rest of the book. Inside the pure-play pocket, PL and DPRO both crossed into collapse regime this cycle — PL's RSI fell to 29.6 and DPRO's to 29.6 as well, tying them for the lowest readings in the book. KRKNF's decline accelerated sharply, its 30-day swinging from -6.29% to -24.5%. ITA and RTX/TDY remain the steadiest names — RTX's RSI held at 54.1 and TDY's actually improved slightly to 52.1, both still in a basing regime. LASR, last cycle's clean improvement story, cooled from RSI 55.1 to 51.7 but its thesis stays rated intact.

• NOC: regime newly tagged "collapse" (was reading as one of the durable holds); RSI 51.1 → 43.5, -32.61% from high (was -30.28%).
• AXON: RSI 61.1 → 48.1, regime newly tagged "downtrend"; price fell another -5.81% today alone, -42.4% from high (was -36.13%).
• DFEN: RSI 50.1 → 39.9, regime newly tagged "downtrend" (was strong-up with no regime downgrade last cycle); 30-day flipped from +2.51% to -11.86%.
• MSI: RSI 59.5 → 51.2, regime newly tagged "downtrend"; data is a day behind the rest of the book (2026-07-16 bar).
• PL: RSI 35.5 → 29.6, regime newly tagged "collapse" (was weak-down last cycle's "fresh deterioration" flag); -56.59% from high (was -49.67%).
• DPRO: RSI 36.5 → 29.6, regime downgraded downtrend → collapse; -70.9% from high (was -66.81%).
• KRKNF: RSI 47.5 → 37.6, 30-day deepened sharply from -6.29% to -24.5% — a real acceleration this cycle.
• AVEX: RSI 39.2 → 36.2, still too-young regime; a -8.34% single-day drop today on 3.28x relative volume.
• ONDS: RSI 36.7 → 33.2, still collapse regime; today's volume is 2.7x average (largest dollar flow in the book at ~$1.4B).
• LASR: RSI 55.1 → 51.7, thesis still rated intact; 30-day actually accelerated from +2.65% to +6.98% despite the trend label cooling to weak-down.
• RTX/TDY: both held steady — RTX RSI 59.6 → 54.1, TDY RSI 50.6 → 52.1 — the only two names in the book without fresh deterioration this cycle.

Regime labels describe chart structure, not a trade call. NOC crossing into collapse this cycle is the single most structurally significant move in the book — it's the first time a major defense prime has carried that label here. DFEN and AXON's fresh downtrend tags confirm the cooling flagged last cycle rather than resolving it into a base. UMAC and AVAV both carry deep price damage (-50% to -66% from highs) without a collapse-regime downgrade yet — that lag is worth watching, not treating as a green light.

Tier A — Durable holds (uptrend/basing regime): ITA, RTX, TDY. Still cooling, but no regime damage this cycle — the steadiest structure in the book.

Tier B — Pullback zone, structure intact: LASR (thesis intact), ESLT, LMT, UMAC. UMAC's deep price damage (-50.73% from high) hasn't yet triggered a collapse-regime tag.

Tier C — Fresh downtrend downgrades: DFEN, AXON, MSI. All three newly carry a downtrend regime label this cycle after reading as cooling-but-intact last scan.

Tier D — Structural avoid, collapse regime (10 of 22 names): AVAV, KTOS, NOC, KRKNF, ONDS, DRSHF, RCAT, AMPX, PL, DPRO. NOC, PL, and DPRO are fresh entries to this tier this cycle.

Tier E — Data caveat: AVEX, EOPSF (too-young regime, thin trading history).

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-17 close — *.