Drone Defense Scan
Drone Defense Scan
Drone-defense is the broken-tape sector of the batch: the pure-play small-cap drones and several primes are in death-cross / strong-down regimes, deep below SMA200, with RSIs washing down toward oversold. AVAV (RSI 31, -47% vs SMA200, -67% from high), KTOS (RSI 31, -42% vs SMA200, -65% from high), NOC (RSI 30.9, -18% vs SMA200) and DRSHF (RSI 23.5) are the deepest. These are NOT oversold-quality — they sit BELOW SMA200 in death crosses, so washed RSI = falling-knife, not entry. The only constructive names are the broad ETFs (ITA RSI 57.2 strong-up near highs, DFEN RSI 55.7) and RTX (RSI 55.9, +SMA200) — but even ITA/RTX carry death-cross flags on the index legs. No clean CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT in the single names.
Latest bar Thursday 2026-06-25. ENTRY-HUNT framing: washed RSI below SMA200 in a death cross is a broken trend, not an oversold-quality buy — call out the trap explicitly.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 Broadly broken — pure-play drones (AVAV, KTOS, RCAT, ONDS, DRSHF, PL) in strong-down/collapse below SMA200; primes (NOC death-cross, LMT death-cross) weak; only the broad ETFs (ITA, DFEN) and RTX hold above SMA200 |
| Key insight | Low RSIs here are FALLING-KNIFE, not oversold-quality. AVAV/KTOS/NOC (RSI ~31) and DRSHF (RSI 23.5) are all below SMA200 in death crosses — washed but trend-broken. The only above-SMA200 holds are ITA (RSI 57.2, near high) and RTX (RSI 55.9). LASR is the cleanest pullback (RSI 40, +25% vs SMA200, golden cross, thesis intact) |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | vs SMA20 | vs SMA200 | 52wkHi% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITA | $237.64 | 57.2 | strong-up | -1.38% | +3.62% | +8.03% | +1.8% | +7.4% | -5.19% | 🔒 Hold (ETF, near high) |
| RTX | $186.59 | 55.9 | up | -1.17% | +4.26% | -2.84% | +2.7% | +2.6% | -13.01% | 🔒 Hold (death-cross flag) |
| DFEN | $75.50 | 55.7 | up | -4.44% | +8.15% | +16.46% | +4.2% | +9.9% | -22.76% | 🔍 Watch (ETF, death-cross) |
| TDY | $627.19 | 53.4 | weak-down | -1.11% | -0.12% | +2.64% | +1.4% | +6.4% | -9.55% | 🔍 Watch (basing) |
| AXON | $447.05 | 53.2 | weak-up | +10.32% | +16.03% | -0.76% | -1.4% | -17.0% | -49.54% | 🔍 Watch (below SMA200) |
| LMT | $504.82 | 43.1 | strong-down | -3.83% | -4.65% | -19.02% | -3.0% | -5.4% | -27.05% | ❌ Avoid (death-cross, <SMA200) |
| EOPSF | $6.40 | 43.9 | neutral | -16.03% | +0.79% | -0.16% | -11.7% | n/a | -29.05% | 🔍 Watch (thin) |
| UMAC | $18.81 | 42.2 | weak-down | -16.37% | +8.85% | +39.96% | -27.1% | +27.0% | -45.26% | 🔍 Watch (volatile) |
| KRKNF | $4.77 | 40.4 | down | -8.04% | -19.02% | -19.56% | -10.1% | -7.2% | -41.33% | ❌ Avoid (<SMA200) |
| LASR | $62.70 | 40.0 | weak-down | -1.71% | -23.13% | -1.82% | -8.7% | +24.8% | -27.89% | 🔍 Watch (golden cross, intact) |
| ESLT | $732.33 | 36.1 | weak-down | -5.20% | -13.98% | -17.54% | -11.1% | +7.7% | -27.92% | 🔍 Watch (golden cross, >SMA200) |
| RCAT | $8.91 | 37.2 | strong-down | -13.43% | -8.80% | -36.36% | -26.4% | -22.4% | -52.56% | ❌ Avoid (death-cross, <SMA200) |
| ONDS | $7.74 | 34.6 | down | -14.87% | -20.78% | -18.01% | -24.8% | -17.4% | -49.38% | ❌ Avoid (<SMA200) |
| AVEX | $15.60 | 33.9 | neutral | -16.97% | -46.00% | -42.07% | -34.8% | n/a | -63.14% | ❌ Avoid (too-young, collapse) |
| AMPX | $12.35 | 33.8 | down | -17.41% | -30.73% | -28.03% | -30.2% | -10.4% | -49.00% | ❌ Avoid (<SMA200) |
| AVAV | $136.69 | 31 | strong-down | -14.17% | -25.00% | -30.23% | -23.1% | -46.7% | -67.29% | ❌ Avoid (death-cross, -47% SMA200) |
| KTOS | $46.65 | 31 | strong-down | -9.98% | -17.87% | -38.51% | -18.3% | -41.5% | -65.19% | ❌ Avoid (death-cross, -42% SMA200) |
| NOC | $501.57 | 30.9 | strong-down | -4.23% | -9.52% | -27.20% | -6.6% | -17.8% | -35.20% | ❌ Avoid (death-cross, <SMA200) |
| PL | $26.00 | 31 | weak-down | -1.87% | -46.19% | -19.75% | -25.8% | +7.2% | -49.75% | 🔍 Watch (>SMA200, washed) |
| DRSHF | $1.63 | 23.5 | strong-down | -11.34% | -28.51% | -43.21% | -19.5% | -32.7% | -62.87% | ❌ Avoid (death-cross, collapse) |
Tier Analysis
Constructive / Hold (above SMA200, RSI 53-57): ITA (RSI 57.2, strong-up, only -5.2% from high — the broad aerospace/defense ETF is the one clean uptrend), RTX (RSI 55.9, up, +2.6% vs SMA200 — the prime holding best; carries a death-cross flag on a crossing average), DFEN (RSI 55.7, leveraged defense ETF, +9.9% vs SMA200 but death-cross flagged), TDY (RSI 53.4, basing). These are the only names not in a broken trend.
Constructive pullback / Watch (above SMA200, golden cross, washed RSI): LASR (RSI 40.0, +24.8% vs SMA200, golden cross, thesis intact, -23% 30D — the cleanest single-name pullback in the book), ESLT (RSI 36.1, +7.7% vs SMA200, golden cross — Israeli prime, pullback not breakdown), PL (RSI 31, +7.2% vs SMA200 but -46% 30D — washed, still above SMA200; watch only). These are pullbacks-of-uptrends, not breakdowns — the watch list within the wreckage.
Below SMA200 / death-cross — FALLING-KNIFE, Avoid: AVAV (RSI 31, death-cross, -47% vs SMA200, -67% from high), KTOS (RSI 31, death-cross, -42% vs SMA200, -65% from high), NOC (RSI 30.9, death-cross, -18% vs SMA200), RCAT (RSI 37.2, death-cross, -22% vs SMA200), DRSHF (RSI 23.5, death-cross, collapse), LMT (RSI 43.1, death-cross, -5% vs SMA200), ONDS (RSI 34.6, -17% vs SMA200), AMPX (RSI 33.8, -10% vs SMA200), AVEX (RSI 33.9, too-young, collapse), KRKNF (RSI 40.4, -7% vs SMA200). Washed RSIs but trend-broken — these are NOT oversold-quality. AVAV/KTOS at RSI 31 sitting -47%/-42% below SMA200 is the classic falling-knife trap; do not confuse with entry.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LASR | $62.70 | 40.0 | -23.13% | Cleanest setup: golden cross, +25% vs SMA200, thesis intact, -23% 30D pullback. Watch for SMA20 reclaim ($69) and trend turn — the one buyable pullback if it bottoms |
| ESLT | $732.33 | 36.1 | -13.98% | Golden cross, +7.7% vs SMA200; pullback not breakdown. Israeli prime; watch for floor near SMA200 ($680) |
| ITA | $237.64 | 57.2 | +3.62% | Already the strong-up leader near highs — not an entry-hunt name (no pullback), the safe core defense exposure |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | ITA, RTX, DFEN, TDY | Above SMA200, constructive; ITA near high, RTX best prime |
| 🔍 WATCH | LASR, ESLT, PL | Pullbacks of uptrends, above SMA200; LASR cleanest, watch for floors |
| ❌ AVOID (falling-knife) | AVAV, KTOS, NOC, RCAT, DRSHF, ONDS, AMPX, AVEX, KRKNF | Below SMA200, death-cross/collapse — washed RSI is broken trend, not oversold-quality |
| ❌ AVOID | LMT | Strong-down, death-cross, below SMA200 — prime in active downtrend |
What Changed
- Pure-play drones broadly broken — AVAV (-67% from high), KTOS (-65%), RCAT (-53%), DRSHF (-63%), AVEX (-63%) all deep below SMA200 in death-cross/collapse
- NOC joined the broken primes — RSI 30.9, death-cross, -18% vs SMA200, -35% from high; LMT also strong-down death-cross
- Only ITA/RTX/DFEN hold above SMA200 — the broad ETFs and RTX are the lone constructive exposure; even they carry death-cross flags on crossing averages
- LASR is the one clean pullback — RSI 40, golden cross, +25% vs SMA200, thesis intact; the buyable-on-floor candidate
- PL washed -46% 30D but still above SMA200 — RSI 31, watch-only; not a death-cross breakdown like AVAV/KTOS
- No CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT single name — the sector is in correction; the only "up" names are ETFs near highs (no pullback to buy) and broken single names (no trend to buy)
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| AVAV/KTOS at RSI ~31 are -47%/-42% below SMA200 in death crosses | Textbook falling-knife: washed RSI ≠ oversold-quality when the trend is broken. Do not buy |
| ITA/RTX are the only constructive exposure, both with death-cross flags on crossing legs | Even the "healthy" defense exposure is mid-transition; ITA near-high is the cleanest, but it's not an entry-hunt name (no pullback) |
| LASR is the only single name that's a pullback (>SMA200, golden cross) rather than a breakdown | The one buyable-on-floor candidate in an otherwise broken sector |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Buying AVAV/KTOS/NOC on "RSI 31, looks oversold" | All three are below SMA200 in death crosses — trend broken, RSI washed = falling-knife, not entry |
| Treating DRSHF RSI 23.5 as the best buy | Lowest RSI but collapse regime, -33% vs SMA200, thin micro-cap — deepest knife, not deepest value |
| Chasing ITA at the high as an "entry" | Already strong-up near high, no pullback — it's a hold/core, not an entry-hunt setup |
Open Questions
- Is the drone/prime selloff a budget/order-cycle catalyst or broad risk-off rotation? (needs event verify — not in this scan)
- Does LASR's pullback hold above SMA200 to set up the one clean entry, or roll into the broken cohort? (watch SMA200 / SMA20)
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.