Drone Defense Scan

Scan

Drone Defense Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 35 rows · screens, not recommendations

Drone-defense is the broken-tape sector of the batch: the pure-play small-cap drones and several primes are in death-cross / strong-down regimes, deep below SMA200, with RSIs washing down toward oversold. AVAV (RSI 31, -47% vs SMA200, -67% from high), KTOS (RSI 31, -42% vs SMA200, -65% from high), NOC (RSI 30.9, -18% vs SMA200) and DRSHF (RSI 23.5) are the deepest. These are NOT oversold-quality — they sit BELOW SMA200 in death crosses, so washed RSI = falling-knife, not entry. The only constructive names are the broad ETFs (ITA RSI 57.2 strong-up near highs, DFEN RSI 55.7) and RTX (RSI 55.9, +SMA200) — but even ITA/RTX carry death-cross flags on the index legs. No clean CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT in the single names.

Latest bar Thursday 2026-06-25. ENTRY-HUNT framing: washed RSI below SMA200 in a death cross is a broken trend, not an oversold-quality buy — call out the trap explicitly.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 Broadly broken — pure-play drones (AVAV, KTOS, RCAT, ONDS, DRSHF, PL) in strong-down/collapse below SMA200; primes (NOC death-cross, LMT death-cross) weak; only the broad ETFs (ITA, DFEN) and RTX hold above SMA200
Key insight Low RSIs here are FALLING-KNIFE, not oversold-quality. AVAV/KTOS/NOC (RSI ~31) and DRSHF (RSI 23.5) are all below SMA200 in death crosses — washed but trend-broken. The only above-SMA200 holds are ITA (RSI 57.2, near high) and RTX (RSI 55.9). LASR is the cleanest pullback (RSI 40, +25% vs SMA200, golden cross, thesis intact)

Price Table

Stock Price RSI Trend 7D% 30D% 3M% vs SMA20 vs SMA200 52wkHi% Signal
ITA $237.64 57.2 strong-up -1.38% +3.62% +8.03% +1.8% +7.4% -5.19% 🔒 Hold (ETF, near high)
RTX $186.59 55.9 up -1.17% +4.26% -2.84% +2.7% +2.6% -13.01% 🔒 Hold (death-cross flag)
DFEN $75.50 55.7 up -4.44% +8.15% +16.46% +4.2% +9.9% -22.76% 🔍 Watch (ETF, death-cross)
TDY $627.19 53.4 weak-down -1.11% -0.12% +2.64% +1.4% +6.4% -9.55% 🔍 Watch (basing)
AXON $447.05 53.2 weak-up +10.32% +16.03% -0.76% -1.4% -17.0% -49.54% 🔍 Watch (below SMA200)
LMT $504.82 43.1 strong-down -3.83% -4.65% -19.02% -3.0% -5.4% -27.05% ❌ Avoid (death-cross, <SMA200)
EOPSF $6.40 43.9 neutral -16.03% +0.79% -0.16% -11.7% n/a -29.05% 🔍 Watch (thin)
UMAC $18.81 42.2 weak-down -16.37% +8.85% +39.96% -27.1% +27.0% -45.26% 🔍 Watch (volatile)
KRKNF $4.77 40.4 down -8.04% -19.02% -19.56% -10.1% -7.2% -41.33% ❌ Avoid (<SMA200)
LASR $62.70 40.0 weak-down -1.71% -23.13% -1.82% -8.7% +24.8% -27.89% 🔍 Watch (golden cross, intact)
ESLT $732.33 36.1 weak-down -5.20% -13.98% -17.54% -11.1% +7.7% -27.92% 🔍 Watch (golden cross, >SMA200)
RCAT $8.91 37.2 strong-down -13.43% -8.80% -36.36% -26.4% -22.4% -52.56% ❌ Avoid (death-cross, <SMA200)
ONDS $7.74 34.6 down -14.87% -20.78% -18.01% -24.8% -17.4% -49.38% ❌ Avoid (<SMA200)
AVEX $15.60 33.9 neutral -16.97% -46.00% -42.07% -34.8% n/a -63.14% ❌ Avoid (too-young, collapse)
AMPX $12.35 33.8 down -17.41% -30.73% -28.03% -30.2% -10.4% -49.00% ❌ Avoid (<SMA200)
AVAV $136.69 31 strong-down -14.17% -25.00% -30.23% -23.1% -46.7% -67.29% ❌ Avoid (death-cross, -47% SMA200)
KTOS $46.65 31 strong-down -9.98% -17.87% -38.51% -18.3% -41.5% -65.19% ❌ Avoid (death-cross, -42% SMA200)
NOC $501.57 30.9 strong-down -4.23% -9.52% -27.20% -6.6% -17.8% -35.20% ❌ Avoid (death-cross, <SMA200)
PL $26.00 31 weak-down -1.87% -46.19% -19.75% -25.8% +7.2% -49.75% 🔍 Watch (>SMA200, washed)
DRSHF $1.63 23.5 strong-down -11.34% -28.51% -43.21% -19.5% -32.7% -62.87% ❌ Avoid (death-cross, collapse)

Tier Analysis

Constructive / Hold (above SMA200, RSI 53-57): ITA (RSI 57.2, strong-up, only -5.2% from high — the broad aerospace/defense ETF is the one clean uptrend), RTX (RSI 55.9, up, +2.6% vs SMA200 — the prime holding best; carries a death-cross flag on a crossing average), DFEN (RSI 55.7, leveraged defense ETF, +9.9% vs SMA200 but death-cross flagged), TDY (RSI 53.4, basing). These are the only names not in a broken trend.

Constructive pullback / Watch (above SMA200, golden cross, washed RSI): LASR (RSI 40.0, +24.8% vs SMA200, golden cross, thesis intact, -23% 30D — the cleanest single-name pullback in the book), ESLT (RSI 36.1, +7.7% vs SMA200, golden cross — Israeli prime, pullback not breakdown), PL (RSI 31, +7.2% vs SMA200 but -46% 30D — washed, still above SMA200; watch only). These are pullbacks-of-uptrends, not breakdowns — the watch list within the wreckage.

Below SMA200 / death-cross — FALLING-KNIFE, Avoid: AVAV (RSI 31, death-cross, -47% vs SMA200, -67% from high), KTOS (RSI 31, death-cross, -42% vs SMA200, -65% from high), NOC (RSI 30.9, death-cross, -18% vs SMA200), RCAT (RSI 37.2, death-cross, -22% vs SMA200), DRSHF (RSI 23.5, death-cross, collapse), LMT (RSI 43.1, death-cross, -5% vs SMA200), ONDS (RSI 34.6, -17% vs SMA200), AMPX (RSI 33.8, -10% vs SMA200), AVEX (RSI 33.9, too-young, collapse), KRKNF (RSI 40.4, -7% vs SMA200). Washed RSIs but trend-broken — these are NOT oversold-quality. AVAV/KTOS at RSI 31 sitting -47%/-42% below SMA200 is the classic falling-knife trap; do not confuse with entry.

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
LASR $62.70 40.0 -23.13% Cleanest setup: golden cross, +25% vs SMA200, thesis intact, -23% 30D pullback. Watch for SMA20 reclaim ($69) and trend turn — the one buyable pullback if it bottoms
ESLT $732.33 36.1 -13.98% Golden cross, +7.7% vs SMA200; pullback not breakdown. Israeli prime; watch for floor near SMA200 ($680)
ITA $237.64 57.2 +3.62% Already the strong-up leader near highs — not an entry-hunt name (no pullback), the safe core defense exposure

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD ITA, RTX, DFEN, TDY Above SMA200, constructive; ITA near high, RTX best prime
🔍 WATCH LASR, ESLT, PL Pullbacks of uptrends, above SMA200; LASR cleanest, watch for floors
❌ AVOID (falling-knife) AVAV, KTOS, NOC, RCAT, DRSHF, ONDS, AMPX, AVEX, KRKNF Below SMA200, death-cross/collapse — washed RSI is broken trend, not oversold-quality
❌ AVOID LMT Strong-down, death-cross, below SMA200 — prime in active downtrend

What Changed

  • Pure-play drones broadly brokenAVAV (-67% from high), KTOS (-65%), RCAT (-53%), DRSHF (-63%), AVEX (-63%) all deep below SMA200 in death-cross/collapse
  • NOC joined the broken primes — RSI 30.9, death-cross, -18% vs SMA200, -35% from high; LMT also strong-down death-cross
  • Only ITA/RTX/DFEN hold above SMA200 — the broad ETFs and RTX are the lone constructive exposure; even they carry death-cross flags on crossing averages
  • LASR is the one clean pullback — RSI 40, golden cross, +25% vs SMA200, thesis intact; the buyable-on-floor candidate
  • PL washed -46% 30D but still above SMA200 — RSI 31, watch-only; not a death-cross breakdown like AVAV/KTOS
  • No CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT single name — the sector is in correction; the only "up" names are ETFs near highs (no pullback to buy) and broken single names (no trend to buy)

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
AVAV/KTOS at RSI ~31 are -47%/-42% below SMA200 in death crosses Textbook falling-knife: washed RSI ≠ oversold-quality when the trend is broken. Do not buy
ITA/RTX are the only constructive exposure, both with death-cross flags on crossing legs Even the "healthy" defense exposure is mid-transition; ITA near-high is the cleanest, but it's not an entry-hunt name (no pullback)
LASR is the only single name that's a pullback (>SMA200, golden cross) rather than a breakdown The one buyable-on-floor candidate in an otherwise broken sector

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
Buying AVAV/KTOS/NOC on "RSI 31, looks oversold" All three are below SMA200 in death crosses — trend broken, RSI washed = falling-knife, not entry
Treating DRSHF RSI 23.5 as the best buy Lowest RSI but collapse regime, -33% vs SMA200, thin micro-cap — deepest knife, not deepest value
Chasing ITA at the high as an "entry" Already strong-up near high, no pullback — it's a hold/core, not an entry-hunt setup

Open Questions

  • Is the drone/prime selloff a budget/order-cycle catalyst or broad risk-off rotation? (needs event verify — not in this scan)
  • Does LASR's pullback hold above SMA200 to set up the one clean entry, or roll into the broken cohort? (watch SMA200 / SMA20)
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.