Drone / Defense Scan

Scan

Drone / Defense Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 35 rows · screens, not recommendations

The pure-play drone names are in broad collapse — AVAV (RSI 43.9, -59% from high, collapse), KTOS (RSI 44.0, -41% 3M, -58% from high, collapse), AVEX (RSI 37, -32% 3M), KRKNF (RSI 42, -32% 3M, collapse), RCAT (RSI 45.2, -36% 3M, collapse), DRSHF (RSI 36.8, -57% from high), PL (RSI 34, -34% 30D — the lowest RSI). The strength is entirely in the broad-defense ETFs and primes: DFEN (RSI 62.9, +34.7% 30D), ITA (RSI 64, near high), RTX (RSI 60.1, strong-up). UMAC (RSI 54.7, +74% 30D) is the one drone name bucking the trend. No oversold (<30) names; many drone names mid-RSI but in collapse/downtrend regime.

Latest bar Thursday 2026-06-18 (Fri 06-19 Juneteenth, closed). Many names 2d stale from yfinance throttle (06-16/06-17) — flagged inline. EOPSF/DRSHF/KRKNF are OTC ADRs.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 Sharply bifurcated and risk-off in the drone layer — pure-play drone/counter-UAS names (AVAV, KTOS, KRKNF, RCAT, AVEX, DRSHF, PL) in collapse/downtrend, -32% to -59% from highs. Broad-defense ETFs + primes (DFEN, ITA, RTX) holding strong uptrends
Key insight The ETFs (DFEN +34.7% 30D, ITA RSI 64) and primes mask a deep drawdown in the speculative drone tail. Mid-RSI readings (40s) hide collapse regimes — these are NOT oversold dips, they're trend breakdowns. PL is the lowest (RSI 34, -34% 30D); UMAC (+74% 30D) is the lone drone winner

Price Table

Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% 52wkHi% Signal
ITA $242.79 64.0 +5.2% +0.44% +11.28% +6.88% -4.65% 🔒 Hold (06-17, 2d stale)
DFEN $80.72 62.9 +14.5% +1.14% +34.69% +11.92% -20.99% 🔒 Hold (06-17, 2d stale)
RTX $186.77 60.1 +4.6% +1.69% +6.59% -7.76% -12.93% 🔒 Hold (06-16, 2d stale)
UMAC $25.20 54.7 +5.0% +1.65% +74.39% +20.52% -26.66% 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale)
LMT $535.95 53.0 +1.8% +0.79% +2.11% -15.22% -22.55% 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale)
TDY $629.76 53.0 +1.8% +1.04% +1.97% -2.07% -9.18% 🔍 Watch (06-17, 2d stale)
ESLT $821.82 47.9 -1.4% -3.93% +6.59% -13.95% -22.42% 🔍 Watch (06-17, 2d stale)
NOC $551.21 47.1 +0.7% -0.32% +0.66% -23.53% -28.78% 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale)
AXON $423.40 45.4 -4.6% -4.74% +7.92% -15.69% -52.21% 🔍 Watch
RCAT $10.90 45.2 -8.0% +2.13% +22.06% -35.77% -41.96% 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale)
KTOS $56.34 44.0 -3.6% +0.56% +3.91% -40.89% -57.96% 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale)
AVAV $169.61 43.9 -7.7% -1.07% +5.85% -19.75% -59.41% 🔍 Watch
AMPX $16.17 43.8 -11.6% -4.15% +4.46% -15.38% -33.25% 🔍 Watch
LASR $66.26 43.6 -8.3% +3.60% -6.45% -6.86% -23.80% 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale)
ONDS $9.21 42.3 -13.1% -2.96% -5.05% -18.35% -39.73% 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale)
KRKNF $5.01 42.0 -8.5% -2.85% -3.09% -31.93% -38.38% 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale)
EOPSF $6.38 41.8 -10.5% +14.17% +4.08% -6.45% -19.79% 🔍 Watch (06-17, 2d stale)
AVEX $18.30 37.0 -30.4% -16.69% -30.50% -32.05% -56.78% 🔍 Watch (too-young)
DRSHF $1.98 36.8 -6.9% -6.28% -3.41% -32.88% -56.61% 🔍 Watch (06-17, 2d stale)
PL $28.23 34.0 -27.3% -13.21% -33.55% +4.71% -45.50% 🔍 Watch

Tier Analysis

ETFs / Primes — Hold (RSI 53-64): ITA (RSI 64, near 52wk high, strong-up, basing), DFEN (RSI 62.9, +34.7% 30D, +14.5% vs SMA20 — the leveraged defense ETF ripping), RTX (RSI 60.1, strong-up, +6.6% 30D). LMT (RSI 53.0, -15.2% 3M pullback) and TDY (RSI 53.0, basing) are flatter. The broad-defense exposure is the strength of the scan.

Mid-RSI Pullbacks / Watch (RSI 42-48): ESLT (RSI 47.9, -14% 3M), NOC (RSI 47.1, -23.5% 3M, strong-down, death cross), AXON (RSI 45.4, -52% from high, downtrend), LASR (RSI 43.6, pullback, thesis intact), AMPX (RSI 43.8, -15.4% 3M). Off their highs but not yet capitulating.

Drone Pure-Plays — Collapse / Watch (RSI 36-45): AVAV (RSI 43.9, -59% from high, -19.8% 3M, collapse regime, death cross — the flagship counter-UAS name deeply broken), KTOS (RSI 44.0, -41% 3M, -58% from high, collapse, death cross), KRKNF (RSI 42, -32% 3M, collapse), RCAT (RSI 45.2, -36% 3M, collapse, +22% 30D dead-cat bounce), DRSHF (RSI 36.8, -57% from high, collapse), AVEX (RSI 37, -32% 3M, -30.4% vs SMA20, too-young). These read mid-RSI but are in collapse/downtrend regimes — NOT oversold dips. ONDS (RSI 42.3, downtrend).

Lowest RSI / Watch (RSI 34): PL (RSI 34.0, -34% 30D, -27.3% vs SMA20, -45.5% from high) — the single lowest RSI and the sharpest 30D drawdown; pullback regime but breaking down. EOPSF (RSI 41.8, +14.2% 7D bounce).

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
PL $28.23 34.0 -33.55% Lowest RSI, -34% 30D, -27% vs SMA20; sharp breakdown, no floor confirmed — watch for RSI <30 capitulation, not a buy here
AVAV $169.61 43.9 +5.85% Flagship drone name -59% from high, collapse + death cross; structurally broken, needs trend turn
KTOS $56.34 44.0 +3.91% -58% from high, -41% 3M, collapse; same regime as AVAV — watch only (06-16, 2d stale)
UMAC $25.20 54.7 +74.39% The one drone name in uptrend (+74% 30D, +37.6% vs SMA50); extended — watch for pullback to SMA20 ($24) (06-16, 2d stale)

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD DFEN, ITA, RTX Broad-defense ETFs/primes in strong uptrends, RSI 60-64
🔍 WATCH LMT, TDY, ESLT, NOC, AXON, LASR, AMPX, UMAC Mid-RSI; primes/components off highs (UMAC the lone drone uptrend, extended)
🔍 WATCH AVAV, KTOS, KRKNF, RCAT, AVEX, DRSHF, ONDS, PL Drone pure-plays in collapse/downtrend — no floors confirmed, contrarian only
🔍 WATCH EOPSF +14% 7D bounce off lows; counter-UAS, too-young (foreign ADR)

What Changed

  • Drone pure-plays in broad collapseAVAV (-59% from high), KTOS (-58%), DRSHF (-57%), AVEX (-57%), all collapse/downtrend regimes; the speculative drone tail is deeply broken
  • PL is the sharpest fresh drop — RSI 34, -33.6% 30D, -27.3% vs SMA20; lowest RSI in the scan
  • ETFs masking the drawdownDFEN (+34.7% 30D) and ITA (RSI 64, near high) ripping while their drone components collapse; the index hides the dispersion
  • UMAC the lone winner — RSI 54.7, +74.4% 30D, strong-up; only drone name in an uptrend
  • Primes mixedRTX strong-up (RSI 60.1), but NOC (-23.5% 3M, death cross) and LMT (-15.2% 3M) lagging
  • No oversold names — lowest RSI is PL 34.0; collapse regimes at mid-RSI (40s) are the trap, not a dip

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
ETFs (DFEN/ITA) ripping while drone components (AVAV/KTOS/RCAT) collapse Index strength is broad-defense/primes, NOT the drone theme — don't read DFEN as a drone buy signal
Mid-RSI (40s) drone names are in collapse/downtrend regimes RSI alone misleads here — AVAV RSI 43.9 looks neutral but is -59% from high; check regime, not just RSI
UMAC +74% 30D is the only drone uptrend Dispersion is extreme — one winner vs a basket of collapses; not a sector-wide buy

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
Buying AVAV/KTOS on "mid-RSI looks safe" Both are collapse regime + death cross, -58/-59% from highs; RSI 44 ≠ healthy
Treating RCAT's +22% 30D as a turn Still -36% 3M, collapse regime; a dead-cat bounce inside a downtrend

Open Questions

  • Is the drone-name collapse (AVAV/KTOS/RCAT/KRKNF) a funding/order-pause event or sector derating? (needs event verify — not in this scan)
  • What drove UMAC's +74% 30D divergence from the rest of the drone book? (catalyst unknown — verify before acting)
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.