Drone / Defense Scan
Drone / Defense Scan
The pure-play drone names are in broad collapse — AVAV (RSI 43.9, -59% from high, collapse), KTOS (RSI 44.0, -41% 3M, -58% from high, collapse), AVEX (RSI 37, -32% 3M), KRKNF (RSI 42, -32% 3M, collapse), RCAT (RSI 45.2, -36% 3M, collapse), DRSHF (RSI 36.8, -57% from high), PL (RSI 34, -34% 30D — the lowest RSI). The strength is entirely in the broad-defense ETFs and primes: DFEN (RSI 62.9, +34.7% 30D), ITA (RSI 64, near high), RTX (RSI 60.1, strong-up). UMAC (RSI 54.7, +74% 30D) is the one drone name bucking the trend. No oversold (<30) names; many drone names mid-RSI but in collapse/downtrend regime.
Latest bar Thursday 2026-06-18 (Fri 06-19 Juneteenth, closed). Many names 2d stale from yfinance throttle (06-16/06-17) — flagged inline. EOPSF/DRSHF/KRKNF are OTC ADRs.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 Sharply bifurcated and risk-off in the drone layer — pure-play drone/counter-UAS names (AVAV, KTOS, KRKNF, RCAT, AVEX, DRSHF, PL) in collapse/downtrend, -32% to -59% from highs. Broad-defense ETFs + primes (DFEN, ITA, RTX) holding strong uptrends |
| Key insight | The ETFs (DFEN +34.7% 30D, ITA RSI 64) and primes mask a deep drawdown in the speculative drone tail. Mid-RSI readings (40s) hide collapse regimes — these are NOT oversold dips, they're trend breakdowns. PL is the lowest (RSI 34, -34% 30D); UMAC (+74% 30D) is the lone drone winner |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITA | $242.79 | 64.0 | +5.2% | +0.44% | +11.28% | +6.88% | -4.65% | 🔒 Hold (06-17, 2d stale) |
| DFEN | $80.72 | 62.9 | +14.5% | +1.14% | +34.69% | +11.92% | -20.99% | 🔒 Hold (06-17, 2d stale) |
| RTX | $186.77 | 60.1 | +4.6% | +1.69% | +6.59% | -7.76% | -12.93% | 🔒 Hold (06-16, 2d stale) |
| UMAC | $25.20 | 54.7 | +5.0% | +1.65% | +74.39% | +20.52% | -26.66% | 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale) |
| LMT | $535.95 | 53.0 | +1.8% | +0.79% | +2.11% | -15.22% | -22.55% | 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale) |
| TDY | $629.76 | 53.0 | +1.8% | +1.04% | +1.97% | -2.07% | -9.18% | 🔍 Watch (06-17, 2d stale) |
| ESLT | $821.82 | 47.9 | -1.4% | -3.93% | +6.59% | -13.95% | -22.42% | 🔍 Watch (06-17, 2d stale) |
| NOC | $551.21 | 47.1 | +0.7% | -0.32% | +0.66% | -23.53% | -28.78% | 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale) |
| AXON | $423.40 | 45.4 | -4.6% | -4.74% | +7.92% | -15.69% | -52.21% | 🔍 Watch |
| RCAT | $10.90 | 45.2 | -8.0% | +2.13% | +22.06% | -35.77% | -41.96% | 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale) |
| KTOS | $56.34 | 44.0 | -3.6% | +0.56% | +3.91% | -40.89% | -57.96% | 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale) |
| AVAV | $169.61 | 43.9 | -7.7% | -1.07% | +5.85% | -19.75% | -59.41% | 🔍 Watch |
| AMPX | $16.17 | 43.8 | -11.6% | -4.15% | +4.46% | -15.38% | -33.25% | 🔍 Watch |
| LASR | $66.26 | 43.6 | -8.3% | +3.60% | -6.45% | -6.86% | -23.80% | 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale) |
| ONDS | $9.21 | 42.3 | -13.1% | -2.96% | -5.05% | -18.35% | -39.73% | 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale) |
| KRKNF | $5.01 | 42.0 | -8.5% | -2.85% | -3.09% | -31.93% | -38.38% | 🔍 Watch (06-16, 2d stale) |
| EOPSF | $6.38 | 41.8 | -10.5% | +14.17% | +4.08% | -6.45% | -19.79% | 🔍 Watch (06-17, 2d stale) |
| AVEX | $18.30 | 37.0 ↓ | -30.4% | -16.69% | -30.50% | -32.05% | -56.78% | 🔍 Watch (too-young) |
| DRSHF | $1.98 | 36.8 ↓ | -6.9% | -6.28% | -3.41% | -32.88% | -56.61% | 🔍 Watch (06-17, 2d stale) |
| PL | $28.23 | 34.0 ↓ | -27.3% | -13.21% | -33.55% | +4.71% | -45.50% | 🔍 Watch |
Tier Analysis
ETFs / Primes — Hold (RSI 53-64): ITA (RSI 64, near 52wk high, strong-up, basing), DFEN (RSI 62.9, +34.7% 30D, +14.5% vs SMA20 — the leveraged defense ETF ripping), RTX (RSI 60.1, strong-up, +6.6% 30D). LMT (RSI 53.0, -15.2% 3M pullback) and TDY (RSI 53.0, basing) are flatter. The broad-defense exposure is the strength of the scan.
Mid-RSI Pullbacks / Watch (RSI 42-48): ESLT (RSI 47.9, -14% 3M), NOC (RSI 47.1, -23.5% 3M, strong-down, death cross), AXON (RSI 45.4, -52% from high, downtrend), LASR (RSI 43.6, pullback, thesis intact), AMPX (RSI 43.8, -15.4% 3M). Off their highs but not yet capitulating.
Drone Pure-Plays — Collapse / Watch (RSI 36-45): AVAV (RSI 43.9, -59% from high, -19.8% 3M, collapse regime, death cross — the flagship counter-UAS name deeply broken), KTOS (RSI 44.0, -41% 3M, -58% from high, collapse, death cross), KRKNF (RSI 42, -32% 3M, collapse), RCAT (RSI 45.2, -36% 3M, collapse, +22% 30D dead-cat bounce), DRSHF (RSI 36.8, -57% from high, collapse), AVEX (RSI 37, -32% 3M, -30.4% vs SMA20, too-young). These read mid-RSI but are in collapse/downtrend regimes — NOT oversold dips. ONDS (RSI 42.3, downtrend).
Lowest RSI / Watch (RSI 34): PL (RSI 34.0, -34% 30D, -27.3% vs SMA20, -45.5% from high) — the single lowest RSI and the sharpest 30D drawdown; pullback regime but breaking down. EOPSF (RSI 41.8, +14.2% 7D bounce).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL | $28.23 | 34.0 ↓ | -33.55% | Lowest RSI, -34% 30D, -27% vs SMA20; sharp breakdown, no floor confirmed — watch for RSI <30 capitulation, not a buy here |
| AVAV | $169.61 | 43.9 | +5.85% | Flagship drone name -59% from high, collapse + death cross; structurally broken, needs trend turn |
| KTOS | $56.34 | 44.0 | +3.91% | -58% from high, -41% 3M, collapse; same regime as AVAV — watch only (06-16, 2d stale) |
| UMAC | $25.20 | 54.7 | +74.39% | The one drone name in uptrend (+74% 30D, +37.6% vs SMA50); extended — watch for pullback to SMA20 ($24) (06-16, 2d stale) |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | DFEN, ITA, RTX | Broad-defense ETFs/primes in strong uptrends, RSI 60-64 |
| 🔍 WATCH | LMT, TDY, ESLT, NOC, AXON, LASR, AMPX, UMAC | Mid-RSI; primes/components off highs (UMAC the lone drone uptrend, extended) |
| 🔍 WATCH | AVAV, KTOS, KRKNF, RCAT, AVEX, DRSHF, ONDS, PL | Drone pure-plays in collapse/downtrend — no floors confirmed, contrarian only |
| 🔍 WATCH | EOPSF | +14% 7D bounce off lows; counter-UAS, too-young (foreign ADR) |
What Changed
- Drone pure-plays in broad collapse — AVAV (-59% from high), KTOS (-58%), DRSHF (-57%), AVEX (-57%), all collapse/downtrend regimes; the speculative drone tail is deeply broken
- PL is the sharpest fresh drop — RSI 34, -33.6% 30D, -27.3% vs SMA20; lowest RSI in the scan
- ETFs masking the drawdown — DFEN (+34.7% 30D) and ITA (RSI 64, near high) ripping while their drone components collapse; the index hides the dispersion
- UMAC the lone winner — RSI 54.7, +74.4% 30D, strong-up; only drone name in an uptrend
- Primes mixed — RTX strong-up (RSI 60.1), but NOC (-23.5% 3M, death cross) and LMT (-15.2% 3M) lagging
- No oversold names — lowest RSI is PL 34.0; collapse regimes at mid-RSI (40s) are the trap, not a dip
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| ETFs (DFEN/ITA) ripping while drone components (AVAV/KTOS/RCAT) collapse | Index strength is broad-defense/primes, NOT the drone theme — don't read DFEN as a drone buy signal |
| Mid-RSI (40s) drone names are in collapse/downtrend regimes | RSI alone misleads here — AVAV RSI 43.9 looks neutral but is -59% from high; check regime, not just RSI |
| UMAC +74% 30D is the only drone uptrend | Dispersion is extreme — one winner vs a basket of collapses; not a sector-wide buy |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Buying AVAV/KTOS on "mid-RSI looks safe" | Both are collapse regime + death cross, -58/-59% from highs; RSI 44 ≠ healthy |
| Treating RCAT's +22% 30D as a turn | Still -36% 3M, collapse regime; a dead-cat bounce inside a downtrend |
Open Questions
Related
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