Last week's pure-play short-covering bounce fully reversed — AVAV, KTOS, UMAC, and AVEX all gave back their prior week's double-digit pops and are now posting fresh double-digit weekly declines, exactly the outcome the prior scan flagged as the likely path. AXON, last week's flagged rollover risk (RSI 79.4, "parabolic"), did roll over — price down from $622.35 to $565.80, RSI cooled to 61.1. The durable defense-ETF/prime layer (ITA, DFEN, RTX) also cooled sharply this week, though from a much healthier starting point.

Data as-of 2026-07-10 close for all 22 names — a full, fresh pull, no staleness in this cycle. (Note: LASR's read this cycle is complete and current, showing a genuine improvement, not a data gap.) Prior scan: 2026-07-07-drone-defense (data as-of 2026-07-06 close).

Last scan's central caution — "the pure-play bounce hasn't repaired the trend yet... treat as short-covering, not a turn" — played out directly. AVAV, KTOS, UMAC, and AVEX each posted a sharp +13% to +34% seven-day gain on 2026-07-06; this cycle, every one of them is back in a double-digit weekly decline (AVAV -19.77%, KTOS -10.45%, UMAC -14.92%, AVEX -18.06%), and AVAV's regime label downgraded further from "downtrend" to "collapse." None of the four ever earned a trend or regime upgrade during the bounce, so nothing about this reversal contradicts the prior read — it confirms it. AXON, flagged last week as the book's clearest overbought/rollover risk (RSI 79.4, regime "parabolic," +32.12% 30-day), rolled over as expected: price fell from $622.35 to $565.80 and RSI cooled to 61.1. The steadier defense-ETF/prime layer (ITA, DFEN, RTX) also cooled meaningfully this week — DFEN's RSI eased from 69.5 to 50.1 alongside a 12.61% weekly pullback — but all three still show positive 30-day gains and no regime downgrade, reading as digestion after a strong run rather than a break. LASR is the one clean improvement in the book: RSI moved from 47.2 to 55.1, trend upgraded from weak-down to strong-up, and its distance from its 52-week high improved from -24.90% to -17.14%.

• AVAV: the week's biggest bounce (+33.83% 7D) fully reversed to -19.77% 7D; trend downgraded weak-up → strong-down, regime downgraded downtrend → collapse; -65.40% from 52-week high (was -57.68%).
• KTOS: +17.61% 7D bounce reversed to -10.45% 7D; stayed in collapse regime; -64.04% from high (was -60.04%).
• UMAC: +16.91% 7D bounce reversed to -14.92% 7D; trend downgraded strong-up → weak-down; -45.26% from high (was -36.99%).
• AVEX: +13.13% 7D bounce reversed to -18.06% 7D; -61.12% from high (was -53.71%).
• AXON: the flagged rollover risk materialized — RSI 79.4 → 61.1, price $622.35 → $565.80, though still +26.8% on 30 days.
• DFEN: RSI 69.5 → 50.1 on a -12.61% weekly pullback; still +2.51% 30-day, no regime downgrade.
• ITA: RSI 69.9 → 51.8; distance from 52-week high widened from -0.09% to -4.94% — the week's leader cooled the hardest among the durable holds.
• LASR: RSI 47.2 → 55.1, trend upgraded weak-down → strong-up, distance from high improved -24.90% → -17.14% — the one name with a genuine structural improvement this week.
• PL: fresh -18.67% 7D decline (was +4.53%); distance from high widened -40.38% → -49.67% — a new deterioration, not previously flagged.
• KRKNF, ONDS, DRSHF, RCAT, AMPX, DPRO: all remained in collapse/downtrend regimes with continued negative 30-day reads — no change to the structural-avoid read.

"Trend" and "regime" are chart-structure labels, not recommendations. A sharp weekly bounce inside a "collapse" or "downtrend" regime (as AVAV/KTOS/UMAC/AVEX showed last cycle) is short-covering until the regime label itself changes — this cycle's full reversal of that bounce is the confirmation, not a new surprise. "Pullback" regime on a strong-up/golden-cross name (ITA, DFEN, RTX, LASR) means digestion inside an intact trend, not a warning sign.

Tier A — Durable uptrends, cooling but intact (RSI 49.7+): AXON, RTX, MSI, LASR, ITA, NOC, TDY, DFEN, LMT. All still positive-to-flat on 30 days; the pullback is a reset after a strong run, not a break. LASR stands out as the one name that genuinely strengthened rather than merely cooled.

Tier B — Failed bounce, reversed fully (RSI 39-43): AVAV, KTOS, UMAC, AVEX. Every name that popped last week on short covering gave it back this week — none earned a trend/regime upgrade during the bounce, so this is confirmation of the prior caution, not new information.

Tier C — Fresh deterioration: PL (-18.67% 7D, distance from high widened to -49.67%), ESLT (RSI 52.9 → 42.4, cooled into weak-down).

Tier D — Structural avoid, unchanged (regime collapse/downtrend): KRKNF, RCAT, ONDS, DPRO, DRSHF, AMPX. No repair signal in any of these; all remain deeply negative on 30 days.