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Gaetano · (@crux_capital_) · 2026-08-12

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$COHR pre-earnings thoughts:

Q4 guide is $1.91B-$2.05B rev, 39%-41% gross margin and $1.52-$1.72 EPS. Would love to see revenue clear $2B. Just like LITE getting over the $1B psychological mark.

They already said FY27 growth should accelerate vs FY26. Want more clarity on how much.

6-inch InP is probably my biggest focus. Need confirmation the ramp is ahead/on plan, yields remain strong, and the cost advantage is showing up more meaningfully in margins. Also more discussion around what exactly is being produced at scale on the 6-inch.

Gross margin was 39.6% last quarter vs. a long-term target above 42%. Want continued progress toward that level.

Expecting a very strong 1.6T ramp alongside continued 800G growth. COHR has both EML and SiPh exposure, so I want to hear how that mix is developing.

LITE just gave a monster OCS update. Now I want COHR to show when its $4B+ OCS opportunity becomes major revenue and why its technology can take share. LITE very confident in their differntiated tech.

CPO/NPO will be a major focus after LITE’s call. Want scale-out timing, scale-up timing, customer breadth and more clarity on what COHR specifically means by “scale-up.”

COHR’s CPO opportunity goes way beyond the laser. ELS modules, fiber attach, isolators, thermals, etc. Want them to highlight this positioning

Expecting another strong scale-across read-through. Multi-Rail should begin contributing in H1 CY2027. Should be even more wind in the sails for $CIEN and $NOK but they did move a lot today.

Want more LTAs, longer order visibility and customer-funded capacity expansion. Orders already extend into 2028 and some agreements run through the end of the decade.

And I want their latest view on China / domestic manufacturing and whether customers are increasingly prioritizing U.S.-based optical supply.

Expecting a strong print.

After LITE yesterday, the bar is definitely higher.

Why it's worth your time

Coherent printed Q4 revenue of $2.05B, up 34% year over year and at the very top of its own guide, per @crux_capital_'s same-day read — and the account graded the print against the pre-earnings checklist it published hours before (6-inch InP ramp, gross-margin path toward 42%, the 1.6T transceiver ramp, the $4B+ OCS opportunity). A public scorecard paired with the print makes the optical thesis's next legs named and checkable — and with LITE's OCS update a day earlier, the lane's big earnings are two for two, with CIEN and NOK called out as read-throughs.