Reason: The complex posted a hot 7D board but the long horizon tells a different story: BTC-USD is RSI 81.3 on a +22.71% week yet change1y is -28.55% with alpha1y -50.37; DOGE-USD is RSI 95.7 in a parabolic regime yet change1y is -57.14% with alpha1y -78.96 - both are short-term squeezes inside year-over-year underperformance, not confirmed uptrends. HOOD is similar - a hot week (+13.2%) but change1y only +1.72% and alpha1y -20.09. RIOT is the one name genuinely positive on both horizons (change1y +61.61%, alpha1y +39.8).

Tape Read

$BTC-USD: price $77,334.89, RSI 81.3 (extreme, overbought), death-crossed, trend up, regime pullback, thesis unrated, 7D +22.71%, 30D +18.89%, 12.1% above its 200-day average (vsSma200) — but change1y is -28.55% and alpha1y -50.37, still -38.72% off its 52-week high: this is a short-term squeeze inside a year of underperformance, not a confirmed uptrend. $DOGE-USD: price $0.09, RSI 95.7 (extreme), death-crossed, regime parabolic, 7D +28.57%, 30D +28.57%, 1.5% above its 200-day — yet change1y -57.14% and alpha1y -78.96, still -70.97% off its 52-week high: same pattern, a violent squeeze, not leadership. $HOOD: price $108.13, RSI 62.5, golden-cross, trend strong-up, regime pullback, thesis unrated, 7D +13.2%, 12.5% above its 200-day — but change1y is only +1.72% and alpha1y -20.09, still -29.72% off its 52-week high: the strong-up tag and hot week are not backed by the year. $RIOT: price $19.83, RSI 46.4, golden-cross, trend weak-down (short-window), regime pullback, thesis unrated, 7D +4.21%, 30D -15.18%, -34.6% off its high — but change1y +61.61% and alpha1y +39.8: the one name in the complex genuinely positive on both the short and long horizon, a deep pullback in an intact trend rather than a breakdown. Note: BTC-USD and DOGE-USD are sourced from yfinance with a latestDate of 2026-08-22 — same-day for crypto's 24/7 tape, so treated here as an intraday snapshot rather than a settled close; HOOD and RIOT are Schwab-sourced as of the 2026-08-21 settled close. Source: full-scan pre-computed summaries — crypto.

• $BTC-USD — WATCH: RSI 81.3, +22.71% week, but change1y -28.55% and alpha1y -50.37 — a squeeze inside underperformance, not a confirmed uptrend.
• $DOGE-USD — PASS: RSI 95.7, parabolic regime, but change1y -57.14% and alpha1y -78.96 — the sharpest short-term move in the complex sits on the weakest long-horizon record.
• $HOOD — WATCH: hot week (+13.2%), but change1y only +1.72% and alpha1y -20.09 — flat-to-lagging over the year.
• $RIOT — WATCH: weak-down short tag but change1y +61.61% and alpha1y +39.8 — the one name here that is a genuine deep pullback in an intact trend, not a squeeze.

Lead pick: The complex's best 7D board is misleading read book-blind: $BTC-USD and $DOGE-USD are posting overbought short-term squeezes (RSI 81-96) on top of deeply negative change1y and alpha1y — underperformance, not leadership. $RIOT is the only name here confirmed on both horizons. $HOOD sits in between: a real week, but a flat year with negative alpha keeps it short of a clean promote.

Sources

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/change1y/alpha1y): full-scan pre-computed summaries — crypto (HOOD/RIOT: Schwab, 2026-08-21 settled close; BTC-USD/DOGE-USD: yfinance, 2026-08-22 intraday snapshot).