Reason: The extreme short-term readings from last cycle have cooled - BTC-USD RSI down to 68.9 from 81.3, DOGE-USD down to 52.8 from a parabolic 95.7 - but the long horizon still tells a weak story: BTC-USD 1-year change is -28.55%->-28.57% with 1-year alpha -48.44; DOGE-USD has slipped BELOW its 200-day (vs 200-day -9.5%, was +1.5%) with 1-year change worsening to -61.9%. HOOD is flat on the year (1-year change +0.55%) with 1-year alpha -19.32. RIOT stays the one name positive on both horizons, though 1-year change has compressed to +37.61% (was +61.61%) and its cushion above the 200-day is now thin at +2.5%.

Tape Read

$BTC-USD: price $77,315.16, RSI 68.9 (cooled from an extreme 81.3 last cycle), death-crossed, trend up, regime pullback, thesis unrated, 7D -1.3%, 30D +20.98%, 11.6% above its 200-day average (vs 200-day) — but 1-year change is still -28.57% and 1-year alpha -48.44, still -38.74% off its 52-week high: the extreme squeeze has faded but the year of underperformance persists. $DOGE-USD: price $0.08, RSI 52.8 (cooled sharply from a parabolic 95.7), death-crossed, regime downtrend (downgraded from parabolic), 7D -11.11%, 30D +14.29% — and it has now slipped below its 200-day (vs 200-day -9.5%, was +1.5% last cycle), 1-year change worsening to -61.9% and 1-year alpha -81.78, still -74.19% off its 52-week high: genuine deterioration, not just a cooled squeeze. $HOOD: price $104.26, RSI 54.1, golden-cross, trend strong-up, regime pullback, thesis unrated, 7D -3.58%, 30D +16.05%, 9.3% above its 200-day — but 1-year change is only +0.55% (down from +1.72%) and 1-year alpha -19.32, still -32.24% off its 52-week high: flat-to-lagging over the year. $RIOT: price $18.99, RSI 43.4, golden-cross, trend weak-down (short-window), regime pullback, thesis unrated, 7D -4.19%, 30D +4.11%, -37.37% off its high — 1-year change has compressed to +37.61% (was +61.61%) and 1-year alpha to +17.74 (was +39.8), with only a thin +2.5% cushion above its 200-day: still the one name in the complex positive on both the short and long horizon, but the margin has narrowed sharply. Note: BTC-USD and DOGE-USD are sourced from yfinance with a data date of 2026-08-28 — same-day for crypto's 24/7 tape, so treated here as an intraday snapshot rather than a settled close; HOOD and RIOT are Schwab-sourced as of the 2026-08-28 settled close. Source: full-scan pre-computed summaries — crypto.

• $BTC-USD — WATCH: RSI cooled to 68.9 from 81.3, but 1-year change -28.57% and 1-year alpha -48.44 — the squeeze has faded, the underperformance has not.
• $DOGE-USD — PASS: now below its 200-day (was above), 1-year change worsened to -61.9% and 1-year alpha -81.78 — genuine deterioration since last cycle, not just a cooled parabolic move.
• $HOOD — WATCH: 30D +16.05%, but 1-year change only +0.55% and 1-year alpha -19.32 — flat-to-lagging over the year.
• $RIOT — WATCH: 1-year change +37.61% and 1-year alpha +17.74 (both down from last cycle) — still the one genuine deep pullback in an intact trend, but the margin above its 200-day is now thin (+2.5%).

Lead pick: $RIOT remains the only name in the complex confirmed on both horizons, though its cushion above the 200-day has compressed sharply since last cycle and bears watching. $BTC-USD's extreme RSI has cooled, but its year-over-year underperformance is unchanged. $DOGE-USD has genuinely deteriorated — it has now crossed below its 200-day where it was previously above it.

Sources

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year change/1-year alpha): full-scan pre-computed summaries — crypto (HOOD/RIOT: Schwab, 2026-08-28 settled close; BTC-USD/DOGE-USD: yfinance, 2026-08-28 intraday snapshot).