Reason: HIMS has crossed below its 200-day this cycle - vs 200-day now -2.4% (was +0.8%), regime downgraded to downtrend, trend to down - the deterioration flagged last cycle as approaching the line has now confirmed. NKE remains essentially unchanged, a genuine breakdown across every window (1-year change -49.04%, alpha -67.69). CROX has compressed further - 1-year change now +32.03% (was +41.65%), alpha +13.38 (was +21.78) - still a deep pullback in an intact trend but the margin is thinning. SBUX cooled modestly (1-year change +20.07%, was +22.53%).

Tape Read

$HIMS has crossed the line flagged last cycle: price $27.71, RSI 43.3, golden-cross, trend down (downgraded from weak-down), regime downtrend (downgraded from pullback), thesis unrated, 1D -0.4%, 7D -3.85%, 30D -12.45% (down from +15.36%), -57.57% off its 52-week high (worse than -55.83%) — 1-year change -42.4% (worse than -34.63%), 1-year alpha -61.05 (worse than -54.5), and it is now -2.4% below its 200-day (vs 200-day, was +0.8% above last cycle): the cushion the desk flagged as nearly vanished has now fully disappeared. $NKE: price $38.4, RSI 40.1, death-crossed, regime collapse, thesis unrated, 1D -0.95%, 7D -3.01%, 30D -9.54% (worse than -8.38%), 25.3% below its 200-day (vs 200-day -25.3, worse than -23.9%), 1-year change -49.04% (roughly unchanged from -49.18%), 1-year alpha -67.69 (roughly unchanged from -69.05), -50.11% off its high — a genuine breakdown across every window, essentially unchanged from last cycle. $CROX: price $117.53, RSI 37.9, golden-cross, trend weak-down, regime pullback, thesis unrated, 1D +1.31%, 7D -3.86%, 30D -14.41% (worse than -8.46%), -16.81% off its high (worse than -13.48%) — 1-year change +32.03% (down from +41.65%), 13.8% above its 200-day (down from +19.5%), 1-year alpha +13.38 (down from +21.78): still a deep pullback in an intact trend, but the margin is compressing. $SBUX: price $104.47, RSI 44.9, golden-cross, trend weak-down, regime uptrend, thesis unrated, 1D -1.28%, 7D -3.13%, 30D -1.44% (down from +3.56%), -5.47% off its high (worse than -2.41%), 1-year change +20.07% (down slightly from +22.53%), 1-year alpha +1.42 (down slightly from +2.66) — modestly intact, roughly market-matching. Source: full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-04 close — consumer.

• $HIMS — PASS: crossed below its 200-day (was above), regime downgraded to downtrend, 1-year change -42.4%, 1-year alpha -61.05 — the deterioration flagged last cycle has now confirmed.
• $NKE — PASS: 25.3% below its 200-day, 1-year change -49.04%, 1-year alpha -67.69 — a genuine breakdown, unchanged.
• $CROX — WATCH: 1-year change +32.03% (down from +41.65%), 13.8% above its 200-day, 1-year alpha +13.38 — deep pullback in an intact trend, compressing.
• $SBUX — WATCH: golden-cross, uptrend, 1-year change +20.07%, 1-year alpha roughly flat (+1.42) — steady but unremarkable.

Lead pick: $HIMS is the story this cycle — the "cushion nearly vanished" read from last cycle has resolved into an actual break below the 200-day, with the regime tag downgraded to downtrend and both 1-year change and alpha worsening materially. $NKE remains the clear structural laggard, essentially unchanged. $CROX is still the basket's best "deep pullback in an intact trend" case, though its margin is compressing.

Sources

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year change/1-year alpha): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-04 close — consumer.