Airlines Scan — October 2, 2026 Close
Airlines Scan — October 2, 2026 Close
The airline rally of the last scan did not hold: all six names carry a negative seven-day change at today's close, the sector ETF ($JETS) gave back the 200-day average it reclaimed on September 25, and only Delta ($DAL) still has a clean long-term structure. American ($AAL) is the weak spot of the week (-6.71% over seven days, -27.79% over three months), and Alaska ($ALK) slid further below its 200-day (-13.0%). Today itself was quiet — four of six rose less than 1.6% and Delta and American slipped — so this is a week-long fade, not a one-day break. Nothing here is oversold; the lowest RSI is 41.2.
Data as-of the 2026-10-02 close for all six tickers, including the sector ETF ($JETS). Numbers from the pre-computed airlines summary. Comparison scan: the September 25, 2026 close.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Fade after last week's bounce — every name down on the week, but only Alaska and American are in real trouble |
| Leaders | Delta (strong-up, 10.9% above its 200-day, +47.32% over one year, alpha +32.31); Southwest (+31.45% over one year, 1D +1.51% today, best of the cohort) |
| Laggards | Alaska (-13.0% vs 200-day, -19.29% over one year, alpha -34.3, regime collapse); American (-6.71% over seven days, -27.79% over three months) |
| Caveat | Price/RSI-only screen; no per-ticker news explains the week (see What To Watch Next) |
What's Going On
The cohort flipped from last scan's all-green close to a drift lower. Seven-day changes run from Southwest's -0.49% (the mildest) to American's -6.71%, with the sector ETF at -2.9% and Alaska at -3.44%. Today's one-day moves were small and mixed: Southwest +1.51%, United +0.65%, Alaska +0.1%, $JETS +0.18%, Delta -0.05% and American -1.45%.
Longer-horizon structure is split. Delta remains above its 200-day by 10.9% with a golden cross and a strong-up tag, and a +47.32% one-year return. United is still above its line (+3.1%) with positive alpha (+3.64), but its trend tag is weak-down. Southwest is 2.4% under its 200-day yet carries a weak-up tag, +31.45% over the year and alpha of +16.44. $JETS (-1.4% vs 200-day) and American (-1.8%) both sit just under their lines on positive one-year returns (+13.65% and +13.21%) but negative alpha. Alaska is the only name flat-or-down over the year with deeply negative alpha, and it is the actually broken one.
Fuel context: a CNBC item on October 1 reported Brent jumping more than 4%, which is a plausible headwind for carriers. That is context only; the news pulls for the six names (Delta and United pulled October 1, returning no items; Southwest September 19; Alaska August 28; American July 9; $JETS June 21) do not tie any move to oil, and the stock-events record shows only upcoming earnings (Delta October 8-9, United October 20-21). The cause of the week's decline is unknown from the corpus; the pulls for Southwest, Alaska, American and $JETS predate the move and say nothing either way.
What Changed Since 2026-09-25
- $JETS: reclaimed its 200-day on September 25 (+1.5%); now -1.4% — lost it. Trend tag back to down.
- Alaska: 200-day gap narrowed to -10.5% last scan; now -13.0% — the narrowing did not follow through.
- American: was -0.2% from its 200-day, nearly reclaimed; now -1.8%.
- Delta: cushion over 200-day eased from +12.6% to +10.9%; trend stays strong-up.
- United: cushion eased from +4.6% to +3.1%; trend tag weak-down.
- Southwest: gap went from -1.8% to -2.4%, but its trend tag improved from strong-down to weak-up.
- No name is oversold; none is overbought.
How To Read The Board
RSI measures recent buying vs selling pressure on a 0-100 scale; under 30 is oversold. The trend tag is a short-window read, not a verdict on the multi-year story. The 200-day gap, one-year change and alpha (return versus the market) are the longer-horizon check. This board is raw screen evidence, not a set of setups.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D | 30D | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | $84.09 | 55 | $81.4 | 3.3% | -1% | 7.61% | 47.32% | 10.9% | 🟢 Only clean structure: strong-up trend, golden cross, well above its 200-day |
| UALE | $112.51 | 50.7 | $110.32 | 2% | -1.3% | 3.84% | 18.64% | 3.1% | 🟡 Above its 200-day but trend tag weak-down; cushion thinner than last scan |
| LUV | $42.47 | 57.1 | $40.68 | 4.4% | -0.49% | 10% | 31.45% | -2.4% | 🟡 Trend tag upgraded to weak-up, but back under its 200-day |
| JETS | $28.14 | 43 | $28.33 | -0.7% | -2.9% | -0.67% | 13.65% | -1.4% | 🟠 Gave back the 200-day it reclaimed last scan; trend tag down |
| AAL | $12.94 | 41.2 | $13.18 | -1.8% | -6.71% | -1.3% | 13.21% | -6.6% | 🔴 Under its 200-day again; worst 7D and worst 3-month in the cohort |
| ALKE | $39.53 | 42.6 | $40.35 | -2% | -3.44% | -4.95% | -19.29% | -13% | 🔴 Collapse regime, gap to the 200-day widened again; only negative year |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation, RSI under 25: None.
Oversold, RSI 25-40: None. Lowest are American (41.2) and Alaska (42.6), just above the band, with $JETS at 43.
Neutral to strong, RSI 40+: All six. Southwest (57.1) and Delta (55) are highest; United is 50.7.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| DAL | Pullback toward its 20-day / 50-day area (below $84) | Intact trend in a flag-type consolidation (base eight weeks); pivot near $93.3 |
| UALE | Hold above 200-day | Needs the trend tag to repair |
| LUV | Reclaim of the 200-day | Price strength vs a lagging structure |
| JETS | Reclaim of the 200-day | Sector gauge; just under the line |
| AAL | None | Under 200-day, deep 3-month damage |
| ALKE | None | Collapse regime; wait for a base |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | DAL | Only name with strong-up trend, golden cross and large positive alpha |
| 🔍 WATCH | UAL, LUV, JETS | Hovering around the 200-day; trend tags unsettled |
| ⚠️ AVOID / CAUTION | AAL | Back under its 200-day, worst week and quarter |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | ALKE | Collapse regime, negative year, alpha -34.3 |
What To Watch Next
Does Delta hold its 20-day area into its October 8-9 earnings? Do $JETS and Southwest reclaim their 200-days, or does the fade extend? Does Alaska's gap widen further? And does oil's October 1 jump get confirmed as a driver in any ticker-level news — today it is context, not a stated cause.
Sources
- Tape: pre-computed airlines summary as of the 2026-10-02 close (airlines).
- Comparison: 2026-09-25-airlines.
- Oil context: CNBC, October 1, 2026, "Brent oil jumps more than 4%..." (2026-10-01-cnbc-brent-oil-jumps-more-than-4-as-u-s-reportedly-sends-third-ai-108370821).
- News/event check: stocks{DAL,UAL,LUV,JETS,AAL,ALK}/news/latest.json
(fetched_at dates above);research/stock-events/` has only upcoming earnings rows for these names.
Related
8 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.