Airlines fell for a third straight week, and Friday was the sharpest leg: all six names closed down between 2.67% and 5.14% on the day and between 5.18% and 10.75% over seven days. Delta ($DAL), the one name above its 200-day average a week ago, slipped 1.2% under it, so none of the six is above that line now. Five of six sit in the RSI 25–40 band and Alaska ($ALK) is under 30, but only Delta still carries a long record that makes this a pullback (+24.78% over one year, positive alpha); American ($AAL) and Alaska are the broken ones.

Data as of the 2026-10-16 close for all six tickers, from the desk's airlines summary (Polygon bars). Comparison: the October 9, 2026 scan.

The tape change is depth, not just breadth. A week ago the seven-day losses ran from -0.43% to -4.49%; as of the October 16 close they run from Southwest's -5.18% to Alaska's -10.75%, with United -10.57%, Delta -8.28%, American -6.9% and $JETS -5.83%. Friday alone: United -5.14%, Alaska -3.75%, Delta -3.47%, Southwest and American -3.26% each, $JETS -2.67%. Alaska (1.24 times average volume) and United (1.09) traded above their usual volume; the other four traded at 0.63 to 0.84 times. Over thirty days only Southwest is positive (+0.89%); the rest run from Delta's -3.21% to Alaska's -11.47%, and three-month losses run from -10.46% (Delta) to -22.81% (Alaska).

Long-horizon structure still separates the names. Delta is the only one with a strong long record: +24.78% over one year, +33.85% over two, alpha +9.25, golden cross in place, 21.23% off its 52-week high. It now sits 1.2% under its 200-day ($76.29), so its long trend is under test at the line, not broken. Southwest has a positive year (+18.65%, alpha +3.12) but is 9.2% under its 200-day with its 50-day under its 200-day (death cross). $JETS is +3.65% on the year with alpha -11.88 and 9.2% under. United is -2.13% on the year (alpha -17.66, though +33.44% over two years) and 11.6% under its line. American is flat on the year (-0.08%, alpha -15.62, -7.84% over two years), 13.2% under, 36.77% off its high, and its regime label moved from downtrend to collapse. Alaska is the broken one: -26.48% over one year, -24.27% over two, alpha -42.01, 21.5% under its 200-day, 42.06% off its high.

What the files say about causes. Delta reported September-quarter results before the October 9 open: EPS $1.72 against a $1.76 consensus (yfinance), a miss; CNBC headlined a 2026 forecast cut on a fuel surge, though coverage disagrees on the guidance direction. A news summary dated October 14 (a single secondary source) has Goldman Sachs cutting American's target to $11 with a Sell rating, American warning of roughly $1B in extra fourth-quarter fuel costs, and Delta's miss weighing on the sector. For Friday itself, CNBC and Bloomberg captures dated October 16 report crude rising sharply as Iran escalated attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent touching $110 for the first time since May, and Bloomberg ties the S&P 500's weekly loss in part to that crude spike. None of those items names an airline, and the airline news pulls were taken the evening of October 15 (Southwest, Alaska and $JETS are older still), so news was not pulled for Friday's move: the oil link is tape-timing context, not a sourced cause.

• Seven-day direction: all six negative again, the third straight week; every name's loss is deeper than on October 9.
• Names under the 200-day: six of six, from five. Delta went from 8% above its line to 1.2% under.
• RSI 25–40 band: five names (Alaska 29.8, United 30.4, $JETS 31.2, Delta 33, American 33.7), up from two ($JETS 37.3, American 39.6). Southwest fell from 51 to 41.3.
• 200-day gaps widened: United -1.4% to -11.6%, Southwest -4.3% to -9.2%, $JETS -3.8% to -9.2%, American -7.4% to -13.2%, Alaska -12.8% to -21.5%.
• Regime labels: American moved from downtrend to collapse; Alaska stays collapse.
• Alaska is the only name under RSI 30; none is under 25 and none is overbought.

RSI measures recent buying versus selling pressure on a 0–100 scale; under 30 is oversold and 25–40 is the watch band used below. The short trend tag (up, down, strong-down) reads only the last few weeks. The longer-horizon checks are the gap to the 200-day average, the one- and two-year changes, and one-year alpha (return versus the market). None of these names carries a desk thesis rating, so everything here is raw price evidence, not a setup; a low RSI under a falling 200-day gap is not an entry. Table values show each row's data date; prose figures are as of the October 16 close.

Capitulation, RSI under 25: None.

Oversold, RSI 25–40: Alaska (29.8), United (30.4), $JETS (31.2), Delta (33) and American (33.7) as of October 16. Only Delta's reading is a dip in a name with a strong long record, and even it is now under its 200-day; the other four reflect damaged structure (negative or thin one-year returns, negative alpha, 200-day gaps of 9% to 21.5%).

Neutral to strong, RSI 40+: Southwest (41.3) alone. Nothing is overbought.

• Delta at its 200-day: a close back above $76.29 with the shelf at $71.12 intact keeps the pullback reading; a close under the shelf would put the long trend itself at risk.
• Oil over the weekend and Monday: whether any airline's own statement names fuel costs, since today the oil link is context only.
• Reports (provider estimates): United and Alaska October 20 after the close, Southwest October 21 after the close, American October 22 before the open.
• United's shelf near $94.79 and $JETS' near $25.50: both sit within a point or two of the last close (October 16 summary levels).
• Whether Alaska's RSI under 30 marks a low or just the next leg; a second week under the shelf-less 200-day gap of -21.5% would say the latter.

• Tape: the desk's airlines summary as of the 2026-10-16 close (airlines).
• Comparison: the October 9, 2026 airlines scan (2026-10-09-airlines).
• Delta report: stock-events row 2026-10-09-dal-earnings (yfinance actual vs consensus); CNBC, October 9, 2026, Delta Air Lines cuts 2026 forecast on fuel surge, but CEO says demand is still strong (2026-10-09-cnbc-delta-air-lines-cuts-2026-forecast-on-fuel-surge-but-ceo-say-108372451).
• American news summary: timothysykes.com, October 14, 2026, via latest (fetched 2026-10-14, model-synthesized summary).
• Oil context: CNBC, October 16, 2026, Brent oil touches $110 as Iran escalates Hormuz attacks; Bloomberg, October 16, 2026, Oil tops $110 for first time since May as supply risk grows and S&P 500 suffers worst week since June (2026-10-16-*).
• News receipts: stocks{DAL,UAL,LUV,JETS,AAL,ALK}/news/latest.json` (DAL and UAL fetched 2026-10-15 evening PT, AAL 2026-10-14, LUV 2026-09-19, ALK 2026-08-28, JETS 2026-06-21).
• Report schedule: stock-events rows 2026-10-20-ual-earnings, 2026-10-20-alk-earnings.md, 2026-10-21-luv-earnings.md, 2026-10-22-aal-earnings.md (provider estimates; superseded duplicate rows ignored).