Airlines Scan — October 9, 2026 Close
Airlines Scan — October 9, 2026 Close
Airlines fell for a second straight week: all six names are negative over seven days, United ($UAL, -4.49%) lost its 200-day average, and Delta ($DAL) is now the only name above that line (8% over, +37.94% over one year), a pullback inside an intact trend. American ($AAL) and the airline fund ($JETS) slipped into the RSI 25–40 band, and Alaska ($ALK) is still the broken name. Delta was scheduled to report before Friday's open; no results are on file, and the stock closed flat on the heaviest volume in the group.
Data as of the 2026-10-09 close for all six tickers, from the desk's airlines summary (Polygon bars). Comparison: the October 2, 2026 close.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟠 Second down week in a row; five of six now under their 200-day averages |
| Leaders | Delta (only name above its 200-day, positive one-year alpha, golden cross intact); Southwest (strong year, best RSI in the group) |
| Laggards | Alaska (collapse regime, only negative year); American (downtrend regime, deepest three-month loss); United (lost its 200-day this week) |
| Caveat | Delta's report results are not on file; news receipts for four of six names predate the week |
What's Going On
The tape change is breadth, not depth. Seven-day changes as of the October 9 close run from Alaska's -0.43% to United's -4.49%, with $JETS -2.45%, Delta -2.28%, Southwest -1.91% and American -1.39%. Friday itself was flat, with one-day moves between Alaska's -0.4% and Southwest's +0.73%. Over thirty days the group splits: Southwest (+7.7%) and Delta (+4.34%) are up, United is flat (+0.32%), and $JETS (-2.03%), Alaska (-2.48%) and American (-1.39%) are down. All six are negative over three months, from Delta's -5.97% to American's -24.72%.
Long-horizon structure separates the names. Delta is the one intact long trend: 8% above its 200-day, +37.94% over one year and +61.18% over two, one-year alpha +21.93, golden cross in place. Its short trend tag has slipped to weak-down and it sits 14.12% under its 52-week high, so this is a pullback inside the trend, not a breakdown. Southwest has the other strong year (+31.5%, alpha +15.5) but sits 4.3% under its 200-day with a strong-down short tag and its 50-day under its 200-day, so its long trend is under test. United's year is modest (+6.04%, alpha -9.96) and it closed 1.4% under its 200-day. $JETS (+10.55% on the year, alpha -5.45, 3.8% under its line) and American (+9.81%, alpha -6.19, 7.4% under, 32.09% off its 52-week high) trail the market. Alaska is broken: -19.92% over one year, -8.04% over two, alpha -35.92, 12.8% under its 200-day, collapse regime.
Cause of the week's slide is not on file. United's news, pulled October 8, holds quote and investor-relations pages with nothing on the move; Delta's, pulled the same evening, holds earnings-date pages from before its report. The Southwest (September 19), Alaska (August 28), American (October 3) and $JETS (June 21) pulls predate most of the week, so news was not pulled for this move. The stock-events record holds only Delta's scheduled report and upcoming October dates for the rest. Article and social captures for October 3–9 name no airline except an unverified social post on October 7 reporting a ground collision between a Delta A350 and an Air Canada 777 at Los Angeles; nothing ties it to the price. Fuel is context, not a cause on file: CNBC and Semafor reported oil jumping on October 8 on Iranian tanker attacks and Houthi strikes on Riyadh, and the October 8 market brief flagged airlines as exposed, but the October 5 market brief recorded all six airlines falling on a day crude fell.
Delta was scheduled to report before Friday's open (a provider estimate). The stock-events record still lists the report as scheduled with no results captured, and no October 9 article captures exist. Delta closed +0.04% on 1.49 times its average volume, the heaviest in the group; the session drew interest, but the reaction cannot be read against numbers that are not on file.
What Changed Since 2026-10-02
- Seven-day direction: all six negative again, the second straight week.
- Names under the 200-day: five of six, up from four. United went from 3.1% above its line on October 2 to 1.4% under.
- Delta: cushion over the 200-day narrowed from 10.9% to 8%; short trend tag fell from strong-up to weak-down; golden cross intact.
- Southwest: short trend tag went from weak-up to strong-down; 200-day gap widened from -2.4% to -4.3%.
- American: 200-day gap widened from -1.8% to -7.4%; RSI from 41.2 to 39.6, now inside the 25–40 band; now labeled a downtrend.
- $JETS: 200-day gap widened from -1.4% to -3.8%; RSI from 43 to 37.3.
- Alaska: 200-day gap essentially unchanged (-13.0% to -12.8%); still in a collapse regime.
- No name is overbought; none is in capitulation.
How To Read The Board
RSI measures recent buying versus selling pressure on a 0–100 scale; under 30 is oversold and 25–40 is the watch band used below. The short trend tag (up, weak-down, strong-down) reads only the last few weeks. The longer-horizon checks are the gap to the 200-day average, the one- and two-year changes, and one-year alpha (return versus the market). None of these names carries a desk thesis rating, so everything here is raw price evidence, not a setup; a low RSI in a down trend is not an entry. Table values show each row's data date; prose figures are as of the October 9 close.
Price Table
| Stock | Price ($) | RSI | SMA20 ($) | vs SMA20 (%) | 7D (%) | 30D (%) | 1Y (%) | vs SMA200 (%) | As of | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 82.17 | 48.3 | 82.3 | -0.2 | -2.28 | 4.34 | 37.94 | 8 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Only name above its 200-day; pullback in an intact trend |
| LUV | 41.66 | 51 | 41.39 | 0.7 | -1.91 | 7.7 | 31.5 | -4.3 | 2026-10-09 | 🟡 Strong year, but under its 200-day with a strong-down short tag |
| UALE | 107.46 | 42.3 | 110.52 | -2.8 | -4.49 | 0.32 | 6.04 | -1.4 | 2026-10-09 | 🟠 Lost its 200-day this week; worst seven days in the group |
| JETS | 27.45 | 37.3 | 28.21 | -2.7 | -2.45 | -2.03 | 10.55 | -3.8 | 2026-10-09 | 🟠 Sector fund further under its 200-day; RSI in the watch band |
| AAL | 12.76 | 39.6 | 13.15 | -3 | -1.39 | -1.39 | 9.81 | -7.4 | 2026-10-09 | 🔴 Downtrend regime; deepest three-month loss |
| ALKE | 39.36 | 42.7 | 40.01 | -1.6 | -0.43 | -2.48 | -19.92 | -12.8 | 2026-10-09 | 🔴 Collapse regime; only negative year |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation, RSI under 25: None.
Oversold, RSI 25–40: $JETS (37.3) and $AAL (39.6) as of October 9. Both sit under their 200-days with negative one-year alpha, so the low reading comes from damaged structure, not a dip in a healthy trend.
Neutral to strong, RSI 40+: United (42.3), Alaska (42.7), Delta (48.3), Southwest (51). Southwest is the highest.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry zone | Condition and thesis |
|---|---|---|
| DAL | $76.1–$82.3 (200-day to 20-day) | Intact long trend in a pullback. Condition: the 200-day holds and price reclaims the 20-day after the report's numbers are on file |
| LUV | Above $43.53 (200-day) | Strong year, lagging structure. Condition: a close back above the 200-day that holds |
| UALE | Above $109.03 (200-day) | Modest year, negative alpha. None until the 200-day is reclaimed |
| JETS | Above $28.53 (200-day) | Sector gauge. A reclaim would be the first sign the group's slide is over |
| AAL | None | Downtrend regime; wait for a base above the 50-day |
| ALKE | None | Collapse regime and negative year; wait for a base |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 🟢 | ⏳ Waiting | Intact long trend; report numbers and a 20-day reclaim are the confirmation |
| LUV | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Strong year, but under its 200-day |
| UALE | 🟠 | ⚠️ Caution | Lost its 200-day; modest year, negative alpha |
| JETS | 🟠 | ⚠️ Caution | Under its 200-day; negative alpha |
| AAL | 🔴 | ❌ Don't buy | Downtrend regime, widening 200-day gap |
| ALKE | 🔴 | ❌ Don't buy | Collapse regime, negative one- and two-year changes |
What To Watch Next
- Delta's report: what it printed and how the next session trades it. Above, the breakout level is the base pivot near $92.21 (an eight-week base, October 9 summary); below, the 200-day.
- United: a close back above its 200-day, or a widening gap into its October 20 report (after the close, provider estimate).
- Oil after the October 8 jump: whether any airline's own news names fuel costs as a driver. Today it is context only.
- The remaining reports (provider estimates): Alaska October 20 after the close, Southwest October 21 after the close, American October 22 before the open.
- Whether $JETS and American bounce from the 25–40 band or slide toward 30 with their 200-day gaps still widening.
Sources
- Tape: the desk's airlines summary as of the 2026-10-09 close (airlines).
- Comparison: the October 2, 2026 airlines scan (2026-10-02-airlines).
- Delta report schedule: stock-events rows 2026-10-09-dal-earnings (status scheduled, provider estimate) and 2026-10-08-dal-earnings (superseded); other upcoming report rows in
research/stock-events/for UAL, ALK, LUV, AAL. - News receipts: stocks{DAL,UAL,LUV,JETS,AAL,ALK}/news/latest.json` (fetched dates above).
- Oil context: CNBC, October 8, 2026, Oil prices jump as Iran steps up tanker attacks, hurricane threatens U.S. Gulf production (2026-10-08-cnbc-oil-prices-jump-as-iran-steps-up-tanker-attacks-hurricane-th-108374533); Semafor, October 8, 2026, Oil prices surge after second day of Houthi strikes on Riyadh; market briefs of October 5 and October 8 (2026-10-05-market-brief, 2026-10-08-market-brief).
- Social (unverified): @aviationbrk, October 7, 2026 (2026-10-07-social-search-air).
Related
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