SemiAnalysis — HBM de-specs to bandwidth; hybrid bonding goes from when to if

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SemiAnalysis — HBM de-specs to bandwidth; hybrid bonding goes from when to if

SK Hynix has now said publicly that 16-high HBM stacks are hard, and buyers are picking bandwidth over capacity. That removes the stack-height problem hybrid bonding was supposed to solve, and SemiAnalysis adds that Samsung's wafer-to-wafer process for its next DRAM node is about two years out and is a different tool set. It's a supply-side read on HBM, and a direct challenge to the bonding-equipment estimates the firm says still assume the technology.

Open on X SemiAnalysis (@SemiAnalysis_)
SemiAnalysis✓ @SemiAnalysis_
Oct 8

Memory suppliers are finally acknowledging our HBM de-spec call. SK Hynix publicly said 16-hi is difficult, and the market is now prioritizing bandwidth over capacity. Hybrid bonding’s case in HBM was always stack height, and at 4-hi and 8-hi there is no height problem to solve.

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SK Hynix has now said publicly that 16-high HBM stacks are hard, and buyers are picking bandwidth over capacity. That removes the stack-height problem hybrid bonding was supposed to solve, and SemiAnalysis adds that Samsung's wafer-to-wafer process for its next DRAM node is about two years out and is a different tool set. It's a supply-side read on HBM, and a direct challenge to the bonding-equipment estimates the firm says still assume the technology.

9 events
DateTypeEvent
Oct 15 tweetZephyr — the physics of SK Hynix's HBM4 problem: halving the die gap cuts underfill flow 8x Oct 16 tweetSerenity - KeyBanc checks: Google discussing memory supply agreements through 2035, Samsung 70% allocated through 2031 Sep 16 pickReuters — SK Hynix in talks to build memory in the US with Intel for the first time Sep 10 tweetTerry — Citi Global TMT readout: NAND TAM $50B to $500B by 2027, AMD CPU TAM $60B to $220B, optical testing capacity about 100x short Sep 10 tweetSerenity — HBM scarcity has pushed Chinese AI accelerator prices up 20-50% in two months Sep 6 ArticleSK hynix: memory pricing and supply plans Aug 26 Market SignalThe AI Money Went Into the Ecosystem, Not Into Nvidia Jul 31 tweetKorean retail's 2x inverse SK Hynix ETF lost ~60% in one day when the squeeze snapped back Jul 31 NewsKOSPI's largest one-day gain in history; the unwind's anatomy gets numbers — captured 2026-07-31 EOW

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