SemiAnalysis — rising H100 rents break the depreciation curve lenders underwrite, with $7T of debt coming

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SemiAnalysis — rising H100 rents break the depreciation curve lenders underwrite, with $7T of debt coming

SemiAnalysis opened a group on how GPU clusters get financed, starting from an odd fact: H100 rental prices rose on a chip lenders model as losing value, and that depreciation curve sets how much a neocloud can borrow against its fleet. After the October 8 OpenAI revenue scare this is the credit-side view of the same demand question, covering Nvidia's backstops and SemiAnalysis's own ClusterMAX ratings as a credit signal; the episode is linked in the thread (YouTube, Spotify).

Open on X SemiAnalysis (@SemiAnalysis_)
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Oct 9

"It's like a zombie apocalypse, but you don't know how many waves of zombies are coming." H100 rental prices went up, on a GPU that should be sliding down its depreciation curve. That curve is what lenders underwrite, and there's $7 trillion of debt coming by 2029. @dnishball

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SemiAnalysis opened a group on how GPU clusters get financed, starting from an odd fact: H100 rental prices rose on a chip lenders model as losing value, and that depreciation curve sets how much a neocloud can borrow against its fleet. After the October 8 OpenAI revenue scare this is the credit-side view of the same demand question, covering Nvidia's backstops and SemiAnalysis's own ClusterMAX ratings as a credit signal; the episode is linked in the thread (YouTube, Spotify).

9 events
DateTypeEvent
Oct 9 ArticleAI Money Bought Running Power Plants and Sold the Build-Out Oct 15 tweetMarkos (AAIG) — neocloud returns now come down to yield on cost vs. 6–9% financing; watch dollar-per-megawatt pricing Oct 2 tweetSemiAnalysis — Google's GPU cloud climbs to Gold in ClusterMAX, but CoreWeave and Nebius are still the Platinum names it holds up as the bar Oct 16 tweetMarkos - Neocloud systemic risk is the B/C-tier wave borrowing against weak contracts, not the big names Oct 1 tweetKawzInvests — open models now carry 61% of Vercel gateway tokens while H200/B200 rents rise and H100/A100 rents fall Sep 16 tweetParadis — Nebius raises rates on four-year-old H100s, and the GPU-depreciation bear case with them Sep 10 tweetM. V. Cunha — Nebius management at Goldman: demand visibility stretches to 24+ months, older GPUs stay economically relevant Oct 5 Deep DiveCoreWeave's Interest Bill Now Takes a Quarter of Its Revenue Oct 13 tweetM. V. Cunha — Nebius reportedly signs an LOI for a big share of a planned 600 MW AI campus in Rotterdam

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