Trump Policy Ticker Catalysts — Source-Tier Event Study

perspective

Trump Policy Ticker Catalysts — Source-Tier Event Study

active thesis

status monitoring priority low thesis tickers 5 scan-mentioned tickers 5 events 7 latest

Narrow event-study claim under test: do DIRECT presidential posts/policy remarks move individual tickers or sector baskets attributably — not the vibes claim that every move in a mentioned name is Trump-driven. Method is source tiers first (direct post > media-only-with-transcript > resurfaced/secondary), then 1D/3D/5D reaction vs earnings/analyst/sector-beta confounds. First pass (2026-06-01): the strongest ticker evidence was secondary or resurfaced, NOT clean direct posts; $NOK is the standing negative control (stock ripped, Trump-pump receipt failed). Promotes to an active thesis only on a clean direct-post example or a repeatable policy basket. Folded from the retired Story Track system 2026-07-22 (user call).

Watch for: A clean dated direct-post example whose ticker move survives the confound checks (promotion trigger); a repeatable policy basket (tariffs/defense/chips) forming rather than one-off mentions.

macro3d agoas of
paradigm track record 83% · 2.5/3 verdicts macro · high confidence · small sample (n=3) US Energy Dominance: HITGold Crash: HITWar Ends Playbook: PARTIAL

The thesis basket — the 5 tickers this perspective actually tracks. Everything else it has touched is folded below.

PLTR $172.55 +30.3% 30d coming into play DELL $479.81 +21.3% 30d in trend IBM $228.85 +8.4% 30d retreating INTC $103.49 +8.9% 30d coming into play NOK $10.78 +6.5% 30d coming into play

The Thread

The thesis as it unfolds — by source type (the symbol grid above is the current state).

Recent Shifts

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Calendar & Lifecycle

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