AI · Power · Energy12–36 months; test order quality and delivery conversion at each quarterly release.

2026-09-11Scheduled

2026-10-28

Read GE Vernova's third-quarter release (scheduled 2026-10-28 before the open, provider estimate): orders, equipment backlog, shipments and segment margins judged separately from bookings, with any cancellation or deferral named; read Quanta's report (2026-10-29) for grid-construction backlog conversion in the same pass. Before it, link the October 6 Constellation–Google 20-year agreement (890 MW of new PJM capacity, including uprate investment) from an issuer or primary source, and obtain primary PJM 2028/29 capacity-auction results and the FERC action on PJM's reliability backstop, which Talen's coverage cites only through aggregator pages. Earlier on a material equipment cancellation, a power-contract amendment, an adverse ERCOT Batch Zero determination for a tracked project (eligibility report stated for 2026-12-10), or a verified behind-the-meter commissioning that supplies usable load ahead of grid conversion.

Energy · Geopolitics · Food · Shipping · InflationWeeks to two quarters. Freight and insurance costs land on Western shelves with a one-to-two-quarter lag, so the case is graded through the 2026-27 northern winter and closed or promoted by the March 2027 CPI cycle.

2026-10-14Scheduled

2026-11-10

The October CPI release on 2026-11-10 is the second dated test; the September print (2026-10-14) left it undecided: food at home fell 0.1% while energy rose 5.2% (seasonally adjusted), so neither branch held. Food at home turning positive on the month while energy stays elevated confirms transmission into the food link and promotes the case; a second flat-to-negative food-at-home month against decelerating energy fails that link and reduces the case to energy-to-freight-to-rates. If food at home is flat-to-negative again while energy stays elevated, the review restates the 'decelerating energy' qualifier for the user's decision rather than treating either branch as met. Review earlier on an official EU storage or TTF break, a pipeline restart or Hormuz transit normalization notice, or the first dated European or US household-energy relief measure.

AI · Storage6–24 months; review demand, capacity and margins at each quarterly release.

2026-10-16Scheduled

2026-10-23

First report of the two-report test: Western Digital's results on October 22 after the close (date now on the company's investor-relations page; the Business Wire release text is not yet captured), then Seagate's scheduled October 27 results (provider calendar). Read pricing, lead times, gross margin, exabyte shipments, the HAMR ramp, long-term-agreement coverage, ruthenium cost and any Toshiba capacity comment. Review earlier on a primary Toshiba capacity release, a confirmed TDK magnetic-head transaction, or a reported price concession or order cut by any nearline supplier. Both price triggers have already fired: Western Digital's settled close under its 200-day average on October 8 and Seagate's on October 16; further price moves alone are not a trigger. Do not renew the scarcity claim until competitor unit timing is established.

AI · Optics6–18 months; the shared test with the AI-spending counter-case runs through March 2027.

2026-10-16Scheduled

2026-11-02

Fabrinet's report, provider-estimated for November 2 (observed August 18), opens the two-report failure test; Coherent follows on November 4 after the close (company's investor-relations page) and Lumentum on November 5 (provider calendar). Read orders, delivered optical revenue, gross margin, pricing, capacity adds and any co-packaged-optics or substitution comment; keep management guidance separate from delivered results. Review earlier if an issuer confirms Thai flood disruption, or on a primary (issuer release, filing or call transcript) allocation, ramp, cancellation or capacity update. The capacity clause has already fired on secondary reports: Lumentum's CEO saying capacity is sold out through early 2029 (Bloomberg, relayed on X October 8-9) and that 2027 supply covers about 30% of demand (forum remarks transcribed on X, October 2), reviewed October 16 as guidance rather than delivered results; further restatements of the same claim are not a trigger.

AI · Power6–24 months; test socket conversion and margins at the next two quarterly reports.

2026-10-16Scheduled

2026-10-30

Read the first of the two quarterly reports the horizon names. Vicor (scheduled 2026-10-20): product revenue against royalties, whether the September 21 raise and the relayed September 30 raise appear in filed results, and margins. Vertiv (provider estimate 2026-10-28, observed October 15; the October 21 date is superseded): whether the $14B sales outlook holds, with acquired revenue separated from organic content. Monolithic Power (scheduled 2026-10-29, after the close): third-quarter revenue against the $1.14–1.16B guide, Enterprise Data mix and operating margin. Navitas (provider estimate 2026-11-03; previously November 2) and Eaton (2026-11-03) roll into the following check. Earlier on a named design-out, a licence termination or dispute, or a guidance cut. The licence clause was checked on October 16 and did not fire: the only dispute on record is Vicor's own patent complaint, which the US International Trade Commission opened as an investigation (October 12 per the company's press-room listing; the release is not yet read); the company's own enforcement filing is not a trigger. Promote only on reported product revenue with stable or rising margins; royalties alone keep the case bounded.

AI · Memory6–18 months; evaluate the common spending counter-case through March 2027.

2026-10-16Scheduled

2026-10-30

Read SK hynix (provider-estimated 2026-10-27) and SanDisk (provider-estimated 2026-10-29) results for product pricing, HBM orders and capacity. Micron's fiscal 2026 10-K (filed 2026-10-09) was read in the 2026-10-16 review: it adds commitment evidence and new risk language on customer inventories built under long-term agreements, and verifies no failure leg. Earlier on a negative contract-price report, a customer order reduction, or an industry greenfield or equipment acceleration (the greenfield clause fired on secondary reports only, Nanya's Fab 5A addition and SK Group's expansion directive of 2026-10-11 and 2026-10-12, and counts once an issuer release or named wire confirms it). Micron's fiscal Q1 2027 margin versus ~86.25% and its fiscal Q2 guide are the named tripwire.