Campaigns
Campaigns
Investment claims with their own evidence, ideas and reviews. Short windows and long convictions can live alongside one another.
Compare two campaigns →Drone and counter-UAS procurement will improve selected suppliers’ operating economics if funded orders convert to deliveries and margins faster than dilution and execution costs.
monitoringCheck the AeroVironment fiscal Q2 2027 10-Q (print provider-estimated for 2026-12-02) for diluted weighted shares, GAAP operating income, segment adjusted EBITDA by segment, Switchblade revenue versus the fiscal Q1 order delays, and funded backlog versus $1,457.8M at August 1, completing the two-report dilution test; earlier on a material funded award, stop-work or cancellation on AVAV, KTOS or RCAT, a primary receipt for the LOCUST E-HEL award's funded status, or the KTOS (2026-11-03) and RCAT (November) prints.
Improving biotech funding will reach tools and CRO revenue through net new orders and project activity, rather than remaining confined to issuance and stock-market enthusiasm.
monitoringSecond-cycle multi-supplier test: Medpace (October 21 after the close, issuer-confirmed; net awards, cancellations, book-to-bill), Danaher (October 21, issuer-confirmed call), Thermo Fisher and ICON (October 21, calendar dates); IQVIA (October 27) and Repligen (November 3) as follow-through. Promote only on net awards or bookings growth tied to biotech customers at more than one supplier. Review earlier on material cancellation or customer cash-constraint news, or if the pending October IPOs (Lycia, TRexBio, Retension, City) are withdrawn.
AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings.
activeRead GE Vernova's third-quarter release (scheduled 2026-10-28 before the open, provider estimate): orders, equipment backlog, shipments and segment margins judged separately from bookings, with any cancellation or deferral named; read Quanta's report (2026-10-29) for grid-construction backlog conversion in the same pass. Before it, link the October 6 Constellation–Google 20-year agreement (890 MW of new PJM capacity, including uprate investment) from an issuer or primary source, and obtain primary PJM 2028/29 capacity-auction results and the FERC action on PJM's reliability backstop, which Talen's coverage cites only through aggregator pages. Earlier on a material equipment cancellation, a power-contract amendment, an adverse ERCOT Batch Zero determination for a tracked project (eligibility report stated for 2026-12-10), or a verified behind-the-meter commissioning that supplies usable load ahead of grid conversion.
Nuclear demand will improve fuel-cycle supplier economics only if utility commitments become fuel contracts, production and margins.
monitoringRead the third-quarter reports of Cameco (2026-10-30), BWX Technologies (2026-11-02) and Centrus (2026-11-04), all provider-estimated dates: contracted volumes and pricing, production, segment margins, and whether Centrus's HALEU contracts appear in backlog with disclosed terms, set against the dilution from its September offering. Before then, link the Centrus–Antares HALEU contract (September 17 release or 8-K) and read Cameco's October 1 6-K, which is captured but unread. Earlier on a funded DOE award, a fuel contract with disclosed volume or price, a production milestone or failure, or a cancellation. Generator power agreements, reactor permits and lane-wide price moves remain context; promote only on supplier-level economics.
Counter-case to persistent optical and memory gains: by March 2027, AI spending reductions and weaker supplier orders reverse the pricing or margin gains those campaigns expect.
monitoringEarlier on a verified capital-spending guide-down or a customer cancellation disclosed in a filing or on an earnings call; earlier also on a new Oracle equity or convertible authorisation, since the $20 billion at-the-market program is exhausted and a replacement filing would confirm the funding gap is structural rather than a timing effect. Otherwise review at the October hyperscaler reporting cycle, beginning with Microsoft's scheduled October 28 report (Microsoft investor-relations calendar, 2:30 PM PT), and test the financing channel — issuance terms, prepayment recurrence and credit marks — separately from the order channel. Aggregator-reported capital-spending figures do not satisfy the disclosure test; a filing or transcript does.
The Saudi phase of the Iran war transmits to Western households through refining, freight and interest rates — not, so far, through grain and fertilizer. Reviewed on the 2026-09-18 settled close: the distillate and shipping links are fully priced (US retail diesel a record $5.901/gal on 2026-09-08 with crude ~$28/bbl below its 2022 level; ULSD crack $108.02/bbl intraday 2026-09-03; Hormuz transits 4 vessels on 2026-09-14 against a pre-war ~125/day; war-risk cover quoted at 40x normal; 2026 tanker orders more than twice 2025's count, ~$20bn, per Semafor 2026-09-18) while the food link is not (August CPI, released 2026-09-11: food at home 0.0% m/m and +2.2% y/y, decelerating from 2.7%, against energy +16.3% y/y and fuel oil +52.0% y/y; the agriculture fund closed 2026-09-18 at $28.15, RSI 41.4, -2.7% on the week and 0.3% under its 50-day). The testable claim is that hardship in the US and Europe arrives this cycle as fuel, freight and borrowing costs — the Fed hiked 25bp on 2026-09-16, its first hike since 2023, with the 10-year Treasury yield at or above 5% on 2026-09-15, 2026-09-16 and 2026-09-18 and on every observation since 2026-09-23 (5.24% on 2026-09-28, the latest) — and that the food-price link completes only if the September CPI (released 2026-10-14) or a cold European winter against 68.7% storage (2026-09-16) forces it.
activeThe October CPI release on 2026-11-10 is the second dated test; the September print (2026-10-14) left it undecided: food at home fell 0.1% while energy rose 5.2% (seasonally adjusted), so neither branch held. Food at home turning positive on the month while energy stays elevated confirms transmission into the food link and promotes the case; a second flat-to-negative food-at-home month against decelerating energy fails that link and reduces the case to energy-to-freight-to-rates. If food at home is flat-to-negative again while energy stays elevated, the review restates the 'decelerating energy' qualifier for the user's decision rather than treating either branch as met. Review earlier on an official EU storage or TTF break, a pipeline restart or Hormuz transit normalization notice, or the first dated European or US household-energy relief measure.
Growth in cloud storage and higher disk density will support HDD supplier margins if unit supply remains disciplined and customers absorb new capacity.
activeFirst report of the two-report test: Western Digital's results on October 22 after the close (date now on the company's investor-relations page; the Business Wire release text is not yet captured), then Seagate's scheduled October 27 results (provider calendar). Read pricing, lead times, gross margin, exabyte shipments, the HAMR ramp, long-term-agreement coverage, ruthenium cost and any Toshiba capacity comment. Review earlier on a primary Toshiba capacity release, a confirmed TDK magnetic-head transaction, or a reported price concession or order cut by any nearline supplier. Both price triggers have already fired: Western Digital's settled close under its 200-day average on October 8 and Seagate's on October 16; further price moves alone are not a trigger. Do not renew the scarcity claim until competitor unit timing is established.
Increasing optical content in AI networks will sustain supplier demand and margin gains through the next two reporting cycles, before added capacity or substitution removes the advantage.
activeFabrinet's report, provider-estimated for November 2 (observed August 18), opens the two-report failure test; Coherent follows on November 4 after the close (company's investor-relations page) and Lumentum on November 5 (provider calendar). Read orders, delivered optical revenue, gross margin, pricing, capacity adds and any co-packaged-optics or substitution comment; keep management guidance separate from delivered results. Review earlier if an issuer confirms Thai flood disruption, or on a primary (issuer release, filing or call transcript) allocation, ramp, cancellation or capacity update. The capacity clause has already fired on secondary reports: Lumentum's CEO saying capacity is sold out through early 2029 (Bloomberg, relayed on X October 8-9) and that 2027 supply covers about 30% of demand (forum remarks transcribed on X, October 2), reviewed October 16 as guidance rather than delivered results; further restatements of the same claim are not a trigger.
Rising datacenter power density will increase the commercial content of rack-to-chip conversion and cooling suppliers, provided design wins become revenue without eroding margins.
activeRead the first of the two quarterly reports the horizon names. Vicor (scheduled 2026-10-20): product revenue against royalties, whether the September 21 raise and the relayed September 30 raise appear in filed results, and margins. Vertiv (provider estimate 2026-10-28, observed October 15; the October 21 date is superseded): whether the $14B sales outlook holds, with acquired revenue separated from organic content. Monolithic Power (scheduled 2026-10-29, after the close): third-quarter revenue against the $1.14–1.16B guide, Enterprise Data mix and operating margin. Navitas (provider estimate 2026-11-03; previously November 2) and Eaton (2026-11-03) roll into the following check. Earlier on a named design-out, a licence termination or dispute, or a guidance cut. The licence clause was checked on October 16 and did not fire: the only dispute on record is Vicor's own patent complaint, which the US International Trade Commission opened as an investigation (October 12 per the company's press-room listing; the release is not yet read); the company's own enforcement filing is not a trigger. Promote only on reported product revenue with stable or rising margins; royalties alone keep the case bounded.
AI memory demand and disciplined capacity additions will sustain DRAM/HBM and NAND supplier pricing and economics through the next two reporting cycles; track each product separately.
activeRead SK hynix (provider-estimated 2026-10-27) and SanDisk (provider-estimated 2026-10-29) results for product pricing, HBM orders and capacity. Micron's fiscal 2026 10-K (filed 2026-10-09) was read in the 2026-10-16 review: it adds commitment evidence and new risk language on customer inventories built under long-term agreements, and verifies no failure leg. Earlier on a negative contract-price report, a customer order reduction, or an industry greenfield or equipment acceleration (the greenfield clause fired on secondary reports only, Nanya's Fab 5A addition and SK Group's expansion directive of 2026-10-11 and 2026-10-12, and counts once an issuer release or named wire confirms it). Micron's fiscal Q1 2027 margin versus ~86.25% and its fiscal Q2 guide are the named tripwire.
Persistent physical energy-supply disruption can improve selected exporters’ realized economics until flows recover; oil, gas and LNG transmission must be proved separately.
monitoringRead ExxonMobil and Chevron third-quarter results (scheduled 2026-10-30, provider estimates) and Cheniere (2026-10-29) for realized oil, gas and LNG prices and upstream margins against the pre-war base; ConocoPhillips, EOG and Targa follow on 2026-11-05. Before then, capture the October Short-Term Energy Outlook as a source and read it against the September outlook (released 2026-10-06 per news coverage, but only a one-paragraph summary is on file), read the bodies of ExxonMobil's 8-K (2026-09-25) and Chevron's 8-K (2026-10-05), and capture the late-September flow reports (Kpler near 80% of pre-war, CNBC crude exports at pre-war, Fortune October 4) so they can be linked. Earlier on an official Hormuz closure or re-escalation notice, tanker attacks that reverse the flow recovery, or a change to the G7 stock release. As of the 2026-10-16 review: the re-escalation and the attack half of the tanker condition have fired on named-wire reports (2026-10-06 to 2026-10-16), so further attack reports or price moves alone are not a trigger; the reversal half has only secondary support, and a primary or named-wire Hormuz crude flow count after 2026-10-08 completes it; the stock-release clause did not fire, since the International Energy Agency decisions of 2026-10-07 and 2026-10-15 carry out the G7 and partners' 2026-10-02 release of up to 100 million barrels, and added volume beyond it, or a halt, is the change. Official crude flows at pre-war with inventories rebuilding and no third-quarter realized-margin advantage complete the failure condition for the crude branch; gas and LNG are judged separately.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: The historical scenario links a Qatar helium/LNG outage to inventory depletion and fabrication risk; the supply premise and equity transmission are separate hypotheses.
closedDirect Qatar operator evidence plus measured helium allocation or fabrication impact would justify a new, narrowly scoped successor.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: The original broad war-resolution rotation evolved into a monitored concentrated risk-on/AI leadership lens; several original branches were retired.
closedOnly a new independent market claim with direct evidence warrants a successor. A peace headline alone does not restore this campaign.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: The historical anomaly concerns whether gold reliably responds to risk-off catalysts and a softer dollar; recovery and miners-versus-metal are distinct tests.
closedA defined event study separating dollar, rates and risk effects plus an actionable claim could support a successor.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: A completed IPO case tests allocation funding, peer multiple changes and a sector halo as separate hypotheses. Its retrospective must not be replaced with a different issuer's prospective listing.
closedRecover original filed terms and contemporaneous event-window observations for a retrospective only.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: A cattle disease shock could increase animal-health demand and induce protein substitution. These two transmission paths require separate evidence.
closedAn official APHIS detection plus identified commercial animal-health demand or protein substitution would justify a focused successor.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: Agent and reinforcement-learning workloads may add server CPU demand, constraining advanced substrates and packaging. Merchant CPUs, captive processors and substrate suppliers can capture different economics.
closedPrimary CPU allocation/pricing evidence plus ABF or OSAT utilization and a named beneficiary would justify a separate successor.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: Chinese offshore equities may reflect overlapping VIE/governance, regulatory and domestic macro discounts distinct from earnings growth.
closedA specific governance or regulatory change with an earnings-versus-multiple study and a dated decision window would justify a successor.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: Physical AI may create demand for scarce sensors, vision, control, actuators and test components. Established commercial suppliers and speculative robot brands require different evidence.
closedA named component supplier with disclosed robot-program orders and profitable revenue conversion would justify a narrow successor.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: Policy support and financing can keep quantum development alive without proving commercial advantage. Balance-sheet runway and repeatable commercial demand are different tests.
closedFiled funding terms and repeatable paid customer demand with a specific economic mechanism would justify a successor.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: The cross-issuer lens tests allocation flows, free float, lockups, index entry and disclosed AI demand. Separate issuance events may have different liquidity effects.
closedAn actual filing with reconciled float, lockup and index dates, plus a measurable funding-flow hypothesis, would justify a new event campaign.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: The narrow event study tests direct presidential statements against ticker moves, accounting for earnings, analyst and sector confounds.
closedA direct primary policy action with a specific economic transmission and a response surviving earnings and sector confounds would justify a successor.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: The historical election-cycle tendency is a low-confidence scenario, not a calendar entry rule. The thesis monitors an early breadth/cyclical turn and a failed-window branch.
closedA distinct evidence-backed election mechanism beyond the calendar could justify a successor; ordinary breadth changes go to climate review.
Historical crypto/geopolitics and miner-transition research. No current market claim is adopted.
closedNo standing review. A user-requested historical audit or a new evidence-backed successor is required.
Historical energy-to-food transmission scenario. No current market claim is adopted.
closedNo standing review. A user-requested historical audit or a new evidence-backed successor is required.
Historical GLP-1 and downstream commercial research. No current market claim is adopted.
closedNo standing review. A user-requested historical audit or a new evidence-backed successor is required.
Historical Iran-related oil supply-shock scenario, previously absorbed. No new call is issued.
closedNo standing review. A user-requested historical audit or a new evidence-backed successor is required.
Historical geopolitical transmission into cybersecurity demand. No current market claim is adopted.
closedNo standing review. A user-requested historical audit or a new evidence-backed successor is required.
Historical extreme oil-price scenario, previously retired. Its old numerical target is not renewed.
closedNo standing review. A user-requested historical audit or a new evidence-backed successor is required.
Desk reviews
Dated passes across the desk. Each preserves its entry map and original calls.
Campaign 1 — capital deployment window
Desk review · 2026-09-06 · data as of 2026-09-04
Import the completed desk-wide Campaign 1 without reissuing its calls
Completed desk-wide review for the September 8 decision window. Historical campaign name retained; the entry map contains the original 16 issued calls. Campaign membership remains unassigned pending an explicit scope review.
Read the entry map →16 original calls referenced · 1/1 directional calls have 30-day outcomes · 0/1 directional calls have 90-day outcomes
- 2026-10-06: 30-day outcomes
- 2026-12-05: 90-day outcomes; next manual desk review also eligible on a regime flip or major focus-lane event
Original calls and current outcomes
Issued calls · returns compare the symbol with SPY after 30 and 90 days. Positive excess supports a BUY; negative excess supports TRIM or SELL. WAIT and research ideas have no score. These are call outcomes, not a campaign return.
WAIT: close above $489.46 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current orders, customer spending and export-exposure review; dip volume was not light. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $407.06 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $299.73 (Sept 4 high; canonical pivot 296.62 already crossed); Hold long-average/pivot reclaim and form a flag; future PPAs are not delivered output. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $296.36 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $299.22 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus supplier allocation and margin verification; dip distribution elevated. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $276.44 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $971.98 (20-day average); Reclaim after initial pop and hold a flag; jagged blocks BUY. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $886.12 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $154.59 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus issuer demand, capacity and margin evidence. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $143.78 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $45.66 (200-day average); Long-average reclaim and held flag; later delivery/funding remain conditional. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $43.57 (volume-profile support) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $312.76 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current orders, memory spending and capacity evidence. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $260.90 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $224.58 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current design-win conversion, demand and margin verification; dip volume not light. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $151.77 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
BUY while the cleared 989.96 flag ceiling holds; losing it returns the entry to WAIT for a new confirmed reclaim. Historical-pattern admission; strict current-RSI screen remains EXTENDED.
Invalidation: A close below 887.61 breaks the observed flag; 606.48 is the distinct SMA200 long-trend invalidation. BUY permission already ends on loss of 989.96.
WAIT: close above $226.58 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); New post-rebound flag; verify later financing/dilution terms. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $154.79 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $236.54 (established pivot; preserved predecessor); Settled volume-supported breakout plus fresh supply, margins and customer-demand review. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $210.57 (50-day average; preserved predecessor) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $1740.00 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); Strict close above reference after a NEW flag; Friday jump alone is not a flag. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $1003.97 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $523.42 (20-day average; first reclaim reference, not 575.88 pivot); Reclaim then flag; current fund exposures and constituent thesis admission required; no scheduled accumulation. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $431.53 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $461.47 (established pivot); Settled volume-supported breakout plus current company capacity, demand and margin review; local flag ceiling was not cleared Friday. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $372.83 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $280.99 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus current issuer orders, backlog conversion and margin evidence. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $257.40 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $468.19 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus current allocation, pricing and capacity evidence. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $372.81 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.