Campaigns
Campaigns
Investment claims with their own evidence, ideas and reviews. Short windows and long convictions can live alongside one another.
Compare two campaigns →Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: The historical scenario links a Qatar helium/LNG outage to inventory depletion and fabrication risk; the supply premise and equity transmission are separate hypotheses.
closedDirect Qatar operator evidence plus measured helium allocation or fabrication impact would justify a new, narrowly scoped successor.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: The original broad war-resolution rotation evolved into a monitored concentrated risk-on/AI leadership lens; several original branches were retired.
closedOnly a new independent market claim with direct evidence warrants a successor. A peace headline alone does not restore this campaign.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: The historical anomaly concerns whether gold reliably responds to risk-off catalysts and a softer dollar; recovery and miners-versus-metal are distinct tests.
closedA defined event study separating dollar, rates and risk effects plus an actionable claim could support a successor.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: A completed IPO case tests allocation funding, peer multiple changes and a sector halo as separate hypotheses. Its retrospective must not be replaced with a different issuer's prospective listing.
closedRecover original filed terms and contemporaneous event-window observations for a retrospective only.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: A cattle disease shock could increase animal-health demand and induce protein substitution. These two transmission paths require separate evidence.
closedAn official APHIS detection plus identified commercial animal-health demand or protein substitution would justify a focused successor.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: Agent and reinforcement-learning workloads may add server CPU demand, constraining advanced substrates and packaging. Merchant CPUs, captive processors and substrate suppliers can capture different economics.
closedPrimary CPU allocation/pricing evidence plus ABF or OSAT utilization and a named beneficiary would justify a separate successor.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: Chinese offshore equities may reflect overlapping VIE/governance, regulatory and domestic macro discounts distinct from earnings growth.
closedA specific governance or regulatory change with an earnings-versus-multiple study and a dated decision window would justify a successor.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: Physical AI may create demand for scarce sensors, vision, control, actuators and test components. Established commercial suppliers and speculative robot brands require different evidence.
closedA named component supplier with disclosed robot-program orders and profitable revenue conversion would justify a narrow successor.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: Policy support and financing can keep quantum development alive without proving commercial advantage. Balance-sheet runway and repeatable commercial demand are different tests.
closedFiled funding terms and repeatable paid customer demand with a specific economic mechanism would justify a successor.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: The cross-issuer lens tests allocation flows, free float, lockups, index entry and disclosed AI demand. Separate issuance events may have different liquidity effects.
closedAn actual filing with reconciled float, lockup and index dates, plus a measurable funding-flow hypothesis, would justify a new event campaign.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: The narrow event study tests direct presidential statements against ticker moves, accounting for earnings, analyst and sector confounds.
closedA direct primary policy action with a specific economic transmission and a response surviving earnings and sector confounds would justify a successor.
Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: The historical election-cycle tendency is a low-confidence scenario, not a calendar entry rule. The thesis monitors an early breadth/cyclical turn and a failed-window branch.
closedA distinct evidence-backed election mechanism beyond the calendar could justify a successor; ordinary breadth changes go to climate review.
Historical crypto/geopolitics and miner-transition research. No current market claim is adopted.
closedNo standing review. A user-requested historical audit or a new evidence-backed successor is required.
Historical energy-to-food transmission scenario. No current market claim is adopted.
closedNo standing review. A user-requested historical audit or a new evidence-backed successor is required.
Historical GLP-1 and downstream commercial research. No current market claim is adopted.
closedNo standing review. A user-requested historical audit or a new evidence-backed successor is required.
Historical Iran-related oil supply-shock scenario, previously absorbed. No new call is issued.
closedNo standing review. A user-requested historical audit or a new evidence-backed successor is required.
Historical geopolitical transmission into cybersecurity demand. No current market claim is adopted.
closedNo standing review. A user-requested historical audit or a new evidence-backed successor is required.
Historical extreme oil-price scenario, previously retired. Its old numerical target is not renewed.
closedNo standing review. A user-requested historical audit or a new evidence-backed successor is required.
Desk reviews
Dated passes across the desk. Each preserves its entry map and original calls.
Campaign 1 — capital deployment window
Desk review · 2026-09-06 · data as of 2026-09-04
Import the completed desk-wide Campaign 1 without reissuing its calls
Completed desk-wide review for the September 8 decision window. Historical campaign name retained; the entry map contains the original 16 issued calls. Campaign membership remains unassigned pending an explicit scope review.
Read the entry map →16 original calls referenced · 1/1 directional calls have 30-day outcomes · 0/1 directional calls have 90-day outcomes
- 2026-10-06: 30-day outcomes
- 2026-12-05: 90-day outcomes; next manual desk review also eligible on a regime flip or major focus-lane event
Original calls and current outcomes
Issued calls · returns compare the symbol with SPY after 30 and 90 days. Positive excess supports a BUY; negative excess supports TRIM or SELL. WAIT and research ideas have no score. These are call outcomes, not a campaign return.
WAIT: close above $489.46 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current orders, customer spending and export-exposure review; dip volume was not light. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $407.06 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $299.73 (Sept 4 high; canonical pivot 296.62 already crossed); Hold long-average/pivot reclaim and form a flag; future PPAs are not delivered output. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $296.36 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $299.22 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus supplier allocation and margin verification; dip distribution elevated. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $276.44 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $971.98 (20-day average); Reclaim after initial pop and hold a flag; jagged blocks BUY. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $886.12 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $154.59 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus issuer demand, capacity and margin evidence. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $143.78 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $45.66 (200-day average); Long-average reclaim and held flag; later delivery/funding remain conditional. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $43.57 (volume-profile support) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $312.76 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current orders, memory spending and capacity evidence. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $260.90 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $224.58 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current design-win conversion, demand and margin verification; dip volume not light. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $151.77 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
BUY while the cleared 989.96 flag ceiling holds; losing it returns the entry to WAIT for a new confirmed reclaim. Historical-pattern admission; strict current-RSI screen remains EXTENDED.
Invalidation: A close below 887.61 breaks the observed flag; 606.48 is the distinct SMA200 long-trend invalidation. BUY permission already ends on loss of 989.96.
WAIT: close above $226.58 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); New post-rebound flag; verify later financing/dilution terms. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $154.79 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $236.54 (established pivot; preserved predecessor); Settled volume-supported breakout plus fresh supply, margins and customer-demand review. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $210.57 (50-day average; preserved predecessor) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $1740.00 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); Strict close above reference after a NEW flag; Friday jump alone is not a flag. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $1003.97 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $523.42 (20-day average; first reclaim reference, not 575.88 pivot); Reclaim then flag; current fund exposures and constituent thesis admission required; no scheduled accumulation. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $431.53 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $461.47 (established pivot); Settled volume-supported breakout plus current company capacity, demand and margin review; local flag ceiling was not cleared Friday. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $372.83 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $280.99 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus current issuer orders, backlog conversion and margin evidence. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $257.40 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $468.19 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus current allocation, pricing and capacity evidence. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $372.81 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.