Campaigns
Campaigns
Investment claims with their own evidence, ideas and reviews. Short windows and long convictions can live alongside one another.
Compare two campaigns →Drone and counter-UAS procurement will improve selected suppliers’ operating economics if funded orders convert to deliveries and margins faster than dilution and execution costs.
monitoringCheck the AeroVironment fiscal Q2 2027 10-Q (print provider-estimated for 2026-12-02) for diluted weighted shares, GAAP operating income, segment adjusted EBITDA by segment, Switchblade revenue versus the fiscal Q1 order delays, and funded backlog versus $1,457.8M at August 1, completing the two-report dilution test; earlier on a material funded award, stop-work or cancellation on AVAV, KTOS or RCAT, a primary receipt for the LOCUST E-HEL award's funded status, or the KTOS (2026-11-03) and RCAT (November) prints.
Improving biotech funding will reach tools and CRO revenue through net new orders and project activity, rather than remaining confined to issuance and stock-market enthusiasm.
monitoringSecond-cycle multi-supplier test: Medpace (October 21 after the close, issuer-confirmed; net awards, cancellations, book-to-bill), Danaher (October 21, issuer-confirmed call), Thermo Fisher and ICON (October 21, calendar dates); IQVIA (October 27) and Repligen (November 3) as follow-through. Promote only on net awards or bookings growth tied to biotech customers at more than one supplier. Review earlier on material cancellation or customer cash-constraint news, or if the pending October IPOs (Lycia, TRexBio, Retension, City) are withdrawn.
Nuclear demand will improve fuel-cycle supplier economics only if utility commitments become fuel contracts, production and margins.
monitoringRead the third-quarter reports of Cameco (2026-10-30), BWX Technologies (2026-11-02) and Centrus (2026-11-04), all provider-estimated dates: contracted volumes and pricing, production, segment margins, and whether Centrus's HALEU contracts appear in backlog with disclosed terms, set against the dilution from its September offering. Before then, link the Centrus–Antares HALEU contract (September 17 release or 8-K) and read Cameco's October 1 6-K, which is captured but unread. Earlier on a funded DOE award, a fuel contract with disclosed volume or price, a production milestone or failure, or a cancellation. Generator power agreements, reactor permits and lane-wide price moves remain context; promote only on supplier-level economics.
Counter-case to persistent optical and memory gains: by March 2027, AI spending reductions and weaker supplier orders reverse the pricing or margin gains those campaigns expect.
monitoringEarlier on a verified capital-spending guide-down or a customer cancellation disclosed in a filing or on an earnings call; earlier also on a new Oracle equity or convertible authorisation, since the $20 billion at-the-market program is exhausted and a replacement filing would confirm the funding gap is structural rather than a timing effect. Otherwise review at the October hyperscaler reporting cycle, beginning with Microsoft's scheduled October 28 report (Microsoft investor-relations calendar, 2:30 PM PT), and test the financing channel — issuance terms, prepayment recurrence and credit marks — separately from the order channel. Aggregator-reported capital-spending figures do not satisfy the disclosure test; a filing or transcript does.
Persistent physical energy-supply disruption can improve selected exporters’ realized economics until flows recover; oil, gas and LNG transmission must be proved separately.
monitoringRead ExxonMobil and Chevron third-quarter results (scheduled 2026-10-30, provider estimates) and Cheniere (2026-10-29) for realized oil, gas and LNG prices and upstream margins against the pre-war base; ConocoPhillips, EOG and Targa follow on 2026-11-05. Before then, capture the October Short-Term Energy Outlook as a source and read it against the September outlook (released 2026-10-06 per news coverage, but only a one-paragraph summary is on file), read the bodies of ExxonMobil's 8-K (2026-09-25) and Chevron's 8-K (2026-10-05), and capture the late-September flow reports (Kpler near 80% of pre-war, CNBC crude exports at pre-war, Fortune October 4) so they can be linked. Earlier on an official Hormuz closure or re-escalation notice, tanker attacks that reverse the flow recovery, or a change to the G7 stock release. As of the 2026-10-16 review: the re-escalation and the attack half of the tanker condition have fired on named-wire reports (2026-10-06 to 2026-10-16), so further attack reports or price moves alone are not a trigger; the reversal half has only secondary support, and a primary or named-wire Hormuz crude flow count after 2026-10-08 completes it; the stock-release clause did not fire, since the International Energy Agency decisions of 2026-10-07 and 2026-10-15 carry out the G7 and partners' 2026-10-02 release of up to 100 million barrels, and added volume beyond it, or a halt, is the change. Official crude flows at pre-war with inventories rebuilding and no third-quarter realized-margin advantage complete the failure condition for the crude branch; gas and LNG are judged separately.
Desk reviews
Dated passes across the desk. Each preserves its entry map and original calls.
Campaign 1 — capital deployment window
Desk review · 2026-09-06 · data as of 2026-09-04
Import the completed desk-wide Campaign 1 without reissuing its calls
Completed desk-wide review for the September 8 decision window. Historical campaign name retained; the entry map contains the original 16 issued calls. Campaign membership remains unassigned pending an explicit scope review.
Read the entry map →16 original calls referenced · 1/1 directional calls have 30-day outcomes · 0/1 directional calls have 90-day outcomes
- 2026-10-06: 30-day outcomes
- 2026-12-05: 90-day outcomes; next manual desk review also eligible on a regime flip or major focus-lane event
Original calls and current outcomes
Issued calls · returns compare the symbol with SPY after 30 and 90 days. Positive excess supports a BUY; negative excess supports TRIM or SELL. WAIT and research ideas have no score. These are call outcomes, not a campaign return.
WAIT: close above $489.46 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current orders, customer spending and export-exposure review; dip volume was not light. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $407.06 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $299.73 (Sept 4 high; canonical pivot 296.62 already crossed); Hold long-average/pivot reclaim and form a flag; future PPAs are not delivered output. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $296.36 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $299.22 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus supplier allocation and margin verification; dip distribution elevated. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $276.44 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $971.98 (20-day average); Reclaim after initial pop and hold a flag; jagged blocks BUY. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $886.12 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $154.59 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus issuer demand, capacity and margin evidence. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $143.78 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $45.66 (200-day average); Long-average reclaim and held flag; later delivery/funding remain conditional. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $43.57 (volume-profile support) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $312.76 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current orders, memory spending and capacity evidence. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $260.90 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $224.58 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current design-win conversion, demand and margin verification; dip volume not light. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $151.77 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
BUY while the cleared 989.96 flag ceiling holds; losing it returns the entry to WAIT for a new confirmed reclaim. Historical-pattern admission; strict current-RSI screen remains EXTENDED.
Invalidation: A close below 887.61 breaks the observed flag; 606.48 is the distinct SMA200 long-trend invalidation. BUY permission already ends on loss of 989.96.
WAIT: close above $226.58 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); New post-rebound flag; verify later financing/dilution terms. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $154.79 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $236.54 (established pivot; preserved predecessor); Settled volume-supported breakout plus fresh supply, margins and customer-demand review. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $210.57 (50-day average; preserved predecessor) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $1740.00 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); Strict close above reference after a NEW flag; Friday jump alone is not a flag. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $1003.97 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $523.42 (20-day average; first reclaim reference, not 575.88 pivot); Reclaim then flag; current fund exposures and constituent thesis admission required; no scheduled accumulation. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $431.53 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $461.47 (established pivot); Settled volume-supported breakout plus current company capacity, demand and margin review; local flag ceiling was not cleared Friday. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $372.83 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $280.99 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus current issuer orders, backlog conversion and margin evidence. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $257.40 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.
WAIT: close above $468.19 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus current allocation, pricing and capacity evidence. Price alone cannot authorize BUY.
Invalidation: Settled close below $372.81 (200-day average) invalidates this entry watch; re-review the business separately.