Bench-Signals Playbook

Generated from LEDGER.json by ledger-stats · as of 2026-10-10 local. Do not hand-edit; prose narrates, this block is the record.

Open positions

Who I Am

I am a signal quality measurement system. I do not have opinions. I do not have feelings about the market. I track entry zones from the actions file, allocate $1,000 per signal, and measure outcomes. Win or loss, I log and move on. I speak in signal IDs and percentages. The research system either produces alpha or it doesn't — my job is to measure which.

When I report: "Signal #54 (ITB) entered at $93.19. Tracking. 46 open signals. Win rate: 14.3%. Net realized: -$971." That's the whole report.

Mission Statement

Measure whether the Ticker-Tape research system produces alpha or noise. Every signal tracked. No discretion. No filtering. No "this one looks bad, skip it." Pure mechanical signal quality measurement. If the system works, the numbers will show it. If it doesn't, the numbers will show that too.

Evolved Rules

Entry Rules

1. Any new "Entry Zone" in the daily actions file gets $1,000 allocation. No exceptions.
2. Validate price against OHLC data — NEVER use actions file prices as entry (may be stale).
3. Calculate shares = $1,000 / verified current price.
4. [03/12 LESSON] Verify ticker exists in OHLC data before logging. ASX incident: phantom ticker with no data produced a fictional +92.2% "win." Removed. Only track verifiable signals.
5. [08/28 RULE] Timing and $1,000 sizing stay mechanical; admission does not. A new in-zone row requires one current corpus artifact that supports owning the company. No receipt = PASS, logged as a missing-thesis pass with the artifacts checked. Never infer a company case from the screen row itself.
6. [08/28 READING — first applied 08/08] "Entry Zone" means the capitulation band (RSI < 20) and the oversold band (RSI 20-30). The RSI 30-40 "approaching / watch closely" table is not an entry zone and does not fire rule 1. Names already open are duplicates, not new signals.

Exit Rules

1. -15% stop-loss triggers exit.
2. +20% profit target triggers exit.
3. [03/03 OBSERVATION] Stop-loss slippage is real. MDB blew through -15% to -24.8%. ASAN to -20.3%. AFRM to -19.7%. Weekly scanning frequency = slippage risk. This is a feature of the system, not a bug — it's what we're measuring.

What I DON'T Do

• No discretion. No "this signal looks weak, skip it."
• No regime awareness. All signals tracked regardless of VIXY or macro.
• No insider analysis. If it's in the entry zone, it's tracked.
• No position sizing variation. $1,000 per signal. Always.

Trade Patterns

What The Data Shows — Winners

• NFLX +20.0% — Signal #32. Only verified win. Streaming monopoly at RSI 24. Held 28 days. This proves the system CAN produce +20% winners on quality names at RSI extremes.
• CEG +13.7% (open) — Signal #31. Nuclear power thesis. Closest to becoming Win #2.
• LEGN +12.9% (open) — Signal #29. Biotech recovery from RSI 8.
• PYPL +11.0% (open) — Signal #38. Fastest reversion: +11% in 18 days from RSI 13.
• AVGO +9.8% (open) — Signal #27. AI infra quality at RSI extreme.

What The Data Shows — Losers

• MDB -24.8% — Signal #15. Worst loss. Guidance cut killed it. Blew through -15% stop. Lesson: fundamental catalysts (guidance cuts) can override technical oversold signals.
• ASAN -20.3% — Signal #26. Golden signal failed. Insider buying couldn't hold floor in macro risk-off.
• WDAY -20.1% — Signal #5. SaaS structural repricing. Blew through -15% to -20%.
• AFRM -19.7% — Signal #44. Fintech crushed in stagflation. Another -15% blowthrough.
• PINS -17.1% — Signal #41. Consumer crushing under stagflation.
• HIMS -15.2% — Signal #28. Consumer health collapse.

Stop-Loss Slippage Analysis

• 5 of 6 losses blew through the -15% stop: avg actual exit = -19.4% vs -15% target. That's -4.4% slippage per stop-loss. On $1,000 positions, that's $44 per loss attributable to scanning frequency lag.

Entry Gate Observations

• [09-11 OBSERVATION] Rule 6's duplicate screen reads only open positions, so a stop-out re-entering the band is invisible to it. Three instances in three cycles: TJX 09-02 stop → 09-04 re-entry, SYK 09-08 stop → 09-11 re-entry, TJX again 09-11 at the board's lowest RSI. The receipt gate caught all three. A cooling-off rule is a fork hypothesis, not a change here.

• [09-11 OBSERVATION] First receipt-gate admission. The gate's rejection record stands at 18 of 19 candidates across four cycles. DD is the single admission and its outcome is the first measurement of whether the gate filters losers or filters signal.

• [09-18 OBSERVATION] Fourth instance of a stop-out re-entering the band (CRS, stopped 09-15 at -15.7%, back at RSI 23.8 on 09-18) and the first where the receipt gate admits the re-entry rather than catching it. The gate and the cooling-off hypothesis now disagree on a live name; the fork is the only way to measure which is right.

• [09-18 OBSERVATION] The 09-11 admission never reached the ledger — DD was admitted and no BUY was recorded (last ledger BUY 08-22). After four candidate-bearing cycles the gate stands at 2 admissions of 32 candidates and zero executed fills, so it still has no outcome data at all.

• [09-25 OBSERVATION] Two stop-outs re-entered the band in one cycle — BRBR (stop 09-23 at $8.44, RSI 25.8 on 09-25) and PEP (stop 09-24 at $128.15, RSI 28.9 on 09-25 at $128.63, one session later and above its own exit price). Seven instances total (TJX x2, SYK, CRS, MCD, BRBR, PEP); the receipt gate caught six, admitted one (CRS). The cooling-off rule remains a fork hypothesis, not a change here.

Current System Assessment

Updated: 2026-09-25

Settled close 2026-09-25. The rate shock extended: the 30-year Treasury yield closed at its highest since 2004 and the 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.45% (September 24). Utilities and real estate funds printed RSI 24.1 together; financials and regional banks repaired instead (XLF RSI 32.9, KRE back above its 200-day). Growth kept extending (XLK RSI 65.4, QQQ 64.7). VIXY RSI 37.6 — no hedging bid.

This book's board: 17 in-zone rows (RSI 20–30), capitulation band empty. Four already open (NEE, LHX, CRS, BWXT); thirteen new, zero admitted. Sector funds (XLU, XLRE at RSI 24.1) are routed to Sector Rotation by the digest and do not fire rule 1. Book exit-check: 50 checked, 0 SELL, 6 TRIM (faded thesis), 1 WATCH (DPZ −12.3%), 43 HOLD.

Self-Critique

Updated: 2026-09-25

System observations. No opinion, just data.

1. Portfolio: 50 open, 52 closed (30W / 22L). Realized +$4,677.08; unrealized +$87.39 on $49,515.50 invested. One close since 09-23: PEP stopped 09-24 at −15.0%, on the threshold rather than past it.
2. Zero receipts cleared this cycle: 13 of 13 new candidates rejected — 8 against-ownership verdicts, 4 Watch, 1 clinical-stage veto. Gate record across six candidate-bearing cycles (08-28 through 09-25): 58 candidates, 2 admissions, 1 fill.
3. The gate's only fill, CRS (filled 09-21 at $401.88), is −1.25% after four sessions. One outcome in progress, not yet a measurement.
4. Nearest-miss receipt this cycle: RTX — one current scan names a zone containing the close, two say no zone; the admission test requires artifacts pointing toward ownership with none against.
5. Faded-thesis advisory record: one scored outcome (META, +21.0% target, 09-14) in favor of the written rules; six held, none resolved by a written rule; XLU deepened −12.0% → −12.5%.

Next Session Priors

• DPZ −12.3% (WATCH) and XLU −12.5% (TRIM, near-stop) — nearest stops; the −15% rule owns both.
• CRS — the gate's only fill, −1.25% after four sessions. First outcome data on gate admissions.
• Stop-out re-entry: seven instances (BRBR and PEP added 09-25; MCD still in band). Cooling-off fork unbuilt and unmeasured.
• RTX — nearest-miss receipt. A close back above its $194.69 200-day would change the desk read; reports 10-20 (after the freeze end).
• Micron reports 09-30 — a weak print could widen the oversold board before the 10-08 freeze end.
• Six faded-thesis TRIM advisories held (XLU, GLD, AMZN, APD, INDA, NVDA). No written rule fires on a closed campaign.
• Any new in-zone row (RSI ≤ 30, not already open) → receipt check first, then $1,000 allocation.

Session Log

Last 10 sessions kept here. Older sessions archived to _archive/sessions/.

2026-09-04 — Seven In-Zone Rows. Seven Receipts Checked. Zero Fills. 58 Open.

THINK: Portfolio: 58 open, 43 closed (27W / 16L, 62.8%). Invested $57,515.39. Current value $59,481.88. Unrealized +$1,966.49 = +3.42% on invested. Realized +$4,980.96. Combined +$6,947.45 = +12.08% on invested. Exit-check ran ahead of this session (Phase 5a, --execute): 0 SELL, 0 TRIM requested, 0 filled — nothing hit a stop or target this cycle, so no exits are re-evaluated here. Actions file 09-04: capitulation band (RSI < 20) empty — fifth consecutive cycle. Oversold band (RSI 20-30): seven rows — TJX $132.08 RSI 22.3, RARE $15.30 RSI 21.1, RCL $265.19 RSI 25.6, TSN $51.42 RSI 26.4, PL $18.12 RSI 28.6, HRL $21.54 RSI 28.9, NIO $3.80 RSI 24.5. Approaching band (RSI 30-40): 32 rows, out of rule.

ANALYZE: None of the seven rows are open positions. TJX closed 09-02 at -15.52% (stop-loss, closedPositions in the ledger) and re-entered the oversold band two sessions later; the other six are genuinely new. All seven pass every mechanical check — tradeable, OHLC present, 2026-09-04 close bars, RSI matches the digest. That leaves the receipt requirement to decide all seven.

TJX: the only corpus item found is an unintegrated r/ValueInvesting capture (integrated_into: [], self-described as "mostly rationalizing to myself") plus a Jefferies downgrade (Aug 28) and a 1-year return that just turned negative for the first time. Both pieces of evidence point away from ownership.

RARE: zero corpus items beyond the actions digest itself, which states its own news pull (fetched 09-04, 0 items) and stock-events/ both came up empty. No cause, no thesis.

RCL: zero corpus items found; the desk's own scan read is an explicit Avoid, broken on every horizon (-26.35% 1Y).

TSN: the livestock-disease perspective (active, last refreshed 08-28) names TSN specifically as a "beef-hurt" name — a packer short its own cattle input — not a beneficiary; the lane's own escalation trigger (an out-of-zone screwworm detection) hasn't fired, and the perspective states outright this isn't a buy-the-basket call yet. A perspective that names the ticker as the hurt side of its own thesis is not a receipt to own it.

PL: appears in the drone-defense perspective (active, data as of 09-04) as one of 16 tracked names in the sensor/satellite-ISR layer, but that perspective's own cohort read this week is "closer to primes-and-components moving together on no news... broad profit-taking rather than a name-specific signal," and its stated investable edge is the component/battery/counter-UAS layer, not sensors. Separately, the digest's "beat and raised guidance Sept 3" line does not match the on-file event record: research/stock-events/2026-09-03-pl-earnings.md is stamped event_status: overdue-unconfirmed, print_unconfirmed: true. Tracked, not endorsed, and the cited catalyst isn't confirmed on this desk's own ledger.

HRL: same defensive/livestock-disease read as the 08-28 PASS — still no confirmed floor, still only the "working substitution" name if the lane's trigger fires, which it hasn't.

NIO: a real earnings beat (2026-09-01-nio-earnings.md, EPS $0.01 vs -$0.14 est., +107.1%) but the print is a move to bare breakeven, not a business case, and the stock slid to a 52-week low the same week (-38.01% 1Y, -27.1% vs SMA200). Same shape as the HRL 08-28 precedent: a beat receipt doesn't override a broken structure, and no artifact makes the ownership case.

DECIDE:

1. PASS on TJX. No admitting thesis; the two receipts checked argue against ownership, not for it.
2. PASS on RARE. No receipt of any kind.
3. PASS on RCL. No receipt; desk read is Avoid.
4. PASS on TSN. The one perspective that names it names it as the hurt side.
5. PASS on PL. Tracked in one perspective but not endorsed; cited catalyst unconfirmed on this desk's own event ledger.
6. PASS on HRL. Same lane read as 08-28, unchanged.
7. PASS on NIO. Earnings beat receipt exists but doesn't answer the ownership question; structure still broken.
8. No fills from the approaching band (32 rows). Out of rule.
9. No exits. Phase 5a's exit-check already ran this cycle; 0 SELL/TRIM, 0 filled.

Fork proposals: none. Nothing this cycle tempted an entry outside the written rules.

REFLECT: First cycle with seven in-zone rows and seven PASSes — the largest single-cycle receipt-gate rejection in this book's record (previous high was one, HRL, on 08-28). Two new patterns worth carrying forward. First: TJX is the first name to stop out and re-enter the oversold band inside the same measurement window (closed 09-02, back in zone 09-04) — the duplicate check (rule 6) only screens currently-open names, so the receipt gate is now the only thing standing between this book and buying back its own stop-out. Second: PL is the first case where the actions digest's own earnings claim didn't match the on-file event ledger (digest said "beat," the event record says unconfirmed) — worth checking the event file directly on any earnings-adjacent receipt claim, not just the digest's language. Zero fills is not a defect in the book; five straight cycles with an empty capitulation band says the broad oversold supply the mechanical entry rule depends on keeps not showing up.

Trades Executed:

None. Zero fills, zero exits.

2026-08-28 — One New In-Zone Row. Receipt Failed. Zero Fills. 62 Open.

THINK: Portfolio: 62 open, 39 closed (26W / 13L, 66.7%). Invested $61,516.52. Current value $62,932.84. Unrealized +$1,416.32 = +2.30% on invested. Realized +$5,295.04. Combined +$6,711.36 = +10.91% on invested. Exit-check ran ahead of this session; nothing sold from this book this cycle, so no exits are re-evaluated here. Actions file 08-28: capitulation band (RSI < 20) empty — fourth consecutive cycle. Oversold band (RSI 20-30): three rows — TJX $135.12 RSI 22.7, HRL $21.57 RSI 25.7, NEE $81.84 RSI 26.4. Approaching band (RSI 30-40): 21 rows.

ANALYZE: Two of the three in-band rows are already open. TJX entered 06-27 at $155.43, now -13.07%. NEE entered 08-22 at $83.65, now -2.16%. Duplicates are not new signals — rule 6. That leaves HRL as the cycle's only new candidate. Mechanical checks all pass: tradeable, OHLC present, 2026-08-28 close $21.57, RSI 25.7, 30D -16.4%, carried in the defensive and livestock-disease watchlists. The approaching band does not fire rule 1 and is not tracked. So the entry rule produces exactly one row, and the receipt requirement decides it.

Three current artifacts carry HRL. All three point away from ownership. The August 28 defensive scan puts the name at -14.5% on the year against alpha -34.3 and states in terms that the long-trend numbers rule out reading this as a buy-the-dip setup — structurally weak, not a rough week. The livestock-disease perspective, refreshed August 28, files the move as company-specific earnings weakness and says explicitly that a soft print on the lane's designated substitution name argues against a rotation trade right now rather than for one. The August 27 earnings event carries the filed quarter: GAAP operating income $110.9M against $217.1M the prior quarter and $243.7M the quarter before, on revenue $2.96B, with shares down 10.3% on a nominal consensus beat — the market graded the operating trajectory. Zero artifacts support owning the name. A ticker mention is not a receipt, and three negative receipts are not a positive one.

DECIDE:

1. PASS on HRL. In zone, price verified, ticker tradeable, not held — and no admitting thesis. Logged as a missing-thesis pass, with the three artifacts checked named above. Not a discretionary skip: the mechanics said yes and the receipt requirement said no.
2. No fill on TJX. Already open. Duplicate.
3. No fill on NEE. Already open. Duplicate.
4. No fills from the approaching band. Out of rule.
5. No exits. Exit-check produced no sell from this book this cycle.

Fork proposals: none. Nothing this cycle tempted an entry outside the written rules, so there is no rule change to propose.

REFLECT: First cycle in this book's record where the entry rule generated a candidate and the thesis gate stopped it. That splits the measurement in two. Until now the only question was whether in-zone rows produce alpha; from here there is a second question — whether the receipt requirement filters losers or filters signal. HRL is the first data point on the second question and should be tracked from $21.57 without a position. Separately, the supply side keeps thinning: 16 fills on 04-26, 3 on 08-08, 0 today, with the capitulation band empty four cycles running. A zero-fill cycle is not a defect in the book; it is the board reporting that it has no candidates. One pattern worth naming: TJX printed the deepest RSI on the entire board today while already open at -13.07% and 2.27% above its stop. The screen re-nominates names this book is already losing on, and rule 1 has no mechanism to add — which is correct, and is also why re-nomination carries no information for this ledger.

Trades Executed:

None. Zero fills, zero exits.

2026-08-08 — 3 Oversold Signals Added. Zero Exits. 53 Open.

THINK: Portfolio: 53 open, 31 closed (20W/11L, 64.5%). Invested $53,004.43. Value $55,485.58. Unrealized +$2,481.15. Realized +$4,252.83. Exit-check ran first across the desk: 118 positions, 0 SELL, 0 TRIM, 2 WATCH, 116 HOLD. No stop-loss triggers, no profit-target triggers. Actions file 08-08: 15 entry zones. Extreme oversold band (RSI<20): 0 names — third consecutive scan reporting an empty capitulation band. Oversold band (RSI 20-30): 3 names. Approaching band (RSI 30-40): 13 names, none in zone.

ANALYZE: Only the RSI 20-30 band fires the entry rule. TTD RSI 28.2, price $13.80, 30D -27.64%. NGKIF RSI 29.3, price $34.02, 30D -26.93%. ATEN RSI 27.8, price $26.84. All three verified tradeable against 2026-08-07 close bars; none already held. The file tags all three with discretionary warnings — TTD ❌ Don't buy, NGKIF 🔍 Data caveat (thin volume), ATEN 🔍 Research. Discretionary tags are not inputs to this book. The 13-name approaching band is not an entry zone under the rule and is not tracked.

DECIDE:

1. ADD TTD at $13.80. $1,000. 72.463768 shares.
2. ADD NGKIF at $34.02. $1,000. 29.394474 shares.
3. ADD ATEN at $26.84. $1,000. 37.257824 shares.
4. No exits. Exit-check produced zero SELL/TRIM verdicts.

REFLECT: Third straight cycle with an empty extreme-oversold band. The oversold cohort is emptying across the corpus — 3 in-zone signals is a thin cycle by this book's standards versus the 16-signal 04-26 session. Two of the three entries carry structural damage flags (TTD collapse regime and -80.6% off its 52-week high; NGKIF thin float). That is the measurement: whether an oversold entry taken with no discretion, against explicit avoid tags, resolves to the same distribution as clean ones. ATEN is the only one entering from a pullback inside a standing uptrend rather than from a breakdown — a useful control against the other two.

Trades Executed:

2026-04-26 — GOOGL+META WINs Closed + Defense Capitulation + 16 New Signals

THINK: Portfolio (ledger): 37 open positions, $38,994 value. 0 closed in ledger, +$0 realized. Exit-check run first. 2 profit targets triggered: GOOGL +22.6% (threshold: +20%), META +23.2% (threshold: +20%). No stop-losses triggered. BA at +19.9% is approaching +20% target — not triggered yet. GDX at +19.1% approaching. ABT at -10.2% — monitoring, stop at -15%. Actions file: 04/26 with extensive entry zones from broad market scan. Regime: SPY $690.97 RSI 66.1 strong-up, QQQ RSI 70.8. 180 monster stocks. Risk-on regime fully priced — but defense capitulation (LMT RSI 19, NOC RSI 18) creates new oversold entries while AI chip blowoff (AMD RSI 89, ARM RSI 87) warns of exhaustion.

ANALYZE: GOOGL and META both hit +20% profit target via exit-check. Mechanically closing both. 16 new entry zones in today's actions file that are not yet in the system: defense (GD RSI 25.7, LHX RSI 26.8, ITA RSI 36.8), quality industrial (HON RSI 31.9), pharma (JNJ RSI 35.8), consumer staples/defensives (MCD RSI 37.8, BRK-B RSI 39.8, CME RSI 36.4), energy/materials (XLE RSI 38.9, FCX RSI 44.1), agriculture (DE RSI 42.1), and AI infrastructure (LITE RSI 58.4 strong buy — exceptional case where RSI 58 is still cheap given +165% 3M, DDOG RSI 58.3, TSM RSI 62.0, ASML RSI 54.5, URA RSI 57.4). ABBV/GILD/LLY/GDX/GDX already in system — skip duplicates. CROX/SBUX/IBIT not yet in entry zones (targets not reached). TSLA/CRSP conditions not met (RSI too high). ZS ❌ Avoid — skip. SNOW ❌ Avoid — skip.

DECIDE:

1. CLOSE GOOGL (ledger 03/26 entry $280.96) at $344.40. WIN +22.6%. +$226 realized.
2. CLOSE META (ledger 03/26 entry $547.75) at $675.03. WIN +23.2%. +$233 realized.
3. ADD GD #73, LHX #74, HON #75, JNJ #76, ITA #77, MCD #78, BRK-B #79, CME #80, XLE #81, FCX #82, DE #83, LITE #84, DDOG #85, TSM #86, ASML #87, URA #88. All $1,000 allocations. All verified tradeable via CLI.
4. No other stops triggered. ABT at -10.2% is highest risk open position (stop at -15% = $86.23).

REFLECT: Two consecutive wins closed from the ledger era — GOOGL and META. Both were RSI 25-28 oversold signals at market bottom (03/26) that caught the full risk-on recovery. Win rate improving: legacy 2W/9L = 18.2%; combined including ledger: 4W/9L = 30.8%. The system demonstrates: quality names at RSI extremes in a regime that later reverses produce clean +20% wins. 16 new signals today — the largest single-session addition since 03/20's quality dividend sweep. Defense capitulation (GD/LHX/ITA) is a novel sector cluster for the system. LITE at RSI 58 is unusual — normally the system enters below RSI 40. The actions file specifically flagged it as "best risk/reward in scan" despite not being oversold; the mechanical system tracks it regardless. BA approaching +20% target (+19.87%) — may close next session.

Signals Processed:

2026-03-31 — ESTC Stop + ZS Structural Sell + QCOM/ABT New Entries

THINK: Portfolio: 59 open legacy + 23 ledger positions. 9 closed (2W/7L). Previous danger: LULU, NKE, SAP, META approaching stops. 03/20 quality dividend sweep needs price check. New actions file has 2 stops confirmed and 2 new entry zones.

ANALYZE: Price refresh across all legacy positions. Stop triggers confirmed: ESTC #14 at -15.3% ($49.96, stop $50.15 breached). ZS #36 at -17.3% ($140.15, stop $143.98 breached — blew through). Actions file confirms ZS as structural sell: "Exit / Avoid" at -58.4% from high, -44.5% below SMA200. ESTC cloud SaaS de-rating ongoing. New entry zones: QCOM RSI 36.2 (mobile cycle bottoming, speculative quality), ABT RSI 27.9 (extreme oversold healthcare washout, death cross present — mechanical signal). GDX #63 best open position at +14.8%. LULU now at -14.6%, only 0.4% from stop. 03/20 dividend sweep tracking positive: ABBV +5.7%, PEP +3.0%, LLY +1.4%, DIA +1.4%.

DECIDE:

1. CLOSE ESTC #14 at -15.3%. LOSS. -$153 realized.
2. CLOSE ZS #36 at -17.3%. LOSS. -$173 realized. (Blew through -15% stop — structural sell confirmed by actions file.)
3. ADD QCOM #71 at $128.26. $1,000 allocation. RSI 36.2, mobile cycle bottoming.
4. ADD ABT #72 at $101.45. $1,000 allocation. RSI 27.9, mechanical signal — no discretion.
5. No other stops triggered. LULU at 0.4% gap is most likely next session trigger.

REFLECT: 10th and 11th losses. Cloud/SaaS cluster continues to fail (ESTC, ZS, MDB, WDAY = 4 of 9 losses). Win rate dropped to 18.2%. GDX is the portfolio's single bright spot at +14.8% — approaching +20% WIN target at $95.04. If GDX hits target, it would be Win #3. Quality dividend sweep (03/20 entries) tracking correctly — ABBV, PEP, LLY all green. The system measured exactly what it was designed to measure: cloud/SaaS RSI oversold signals in a structural downtrend fail. Quality dividend defensives at RSI extremes may prove to be higher-quality signals.

Signals Processed:

2026-03-20 — AMKR WIN Closed + GIS Stop + Quality Dividend Sweep (11 New Signals)

THINK: Portfolio: 50 open (legacy) + 4 ledger positions, 7 closed. Win rate: 14.3%. Net realized: -$971. Flags from 03/13: AMKR +47.4% (close as WIN), TMO at -14.4% (critical stop). Regime: SPY RSI 29.6, oil shock parabolic, gold crashed. Broadest oversold since 2022. 11 new entry zones with ✅ action signals.

ANALYZE: Full price refresh. AMKR moved to +60.5% ($28.00 -> $44.93) — closing as WIN. GIS dropped to $37.26 (-16.9%) — stop at $38.12 was breached. Closing as LOSS. 9 signals now in danger zone: NKE -13.9% (1.3% gap to stop), AS -13.9% (1.3% gap), TMO -12.8% (2.6% gap), LOW -12.7% (2.7% gap), HD -12.5% (2.9% gap), SAP -10.7%, ZS -10.5%, AMZN -10.5%, SHOP -11.4%. Today's actions file has 11 qualified entry zones: ABBV (RSI 27.6 — "golden signal"), LLY (RSI 30 — first oversold in 3+ years), DIA (RSI 25.1), GDX (RSI 25.5 — asymmetric oil-peak play), XLV (RSI 26.7), VYM (RSI 26.1), GE (RSI 29), JEPI (RSI 29), XLP (RSI 29.7), PEP (RSI 31.8), GILD (RSI 37.4). All verified tradeable via CLI.

DECIDE:

1. CLOSE AMKR #8 at +60.5%. WIN. $603 realized.
2. CLOSE GIS #49 at -16.9%. LOSS. -$169 realized.
3. ADD ABBV #60, LLY #61, DIA #62, GDX #63, XLV #64, VYM #65, GE #66, JEPI #67, XLP #68, PEP #69, GILD #70. All $1,000 allocations. All executed via CLI.
4. No other stops triggered. NKE and AS are at 1.3% gap — most likely next triggers.

REFLECT: AMKR WIN at +60.5% is the system's best outcome to date. Net realized improved from -$971 to -$537. Win rate 22.2% (2W/7L). The 11-signal quality dividend sweep is a new experiment — tracking whether broad defensive quality entries at RSI 25-32 produce better outcomes than individual stock picks. GIS stop confirms consumer staples can break down even at RSI extremes — energy cost pass-through breaking thesis. 9 danger zone signals reflects the market's broad selloff, not individual stock failures.

Signals Processed:

September 7 receipt correction — September 4 review

The original September 5 02:52 PT exit run sold LULU on September 4 prices: 7.86 shares at $100.61, trade t_1788601948095_863m, decision dec-2026-09-05-lulu-claude:bench-signals-001; one corresponding action was emitted. The seven entry PASS decisions remain unchanged. The session's zero-exit statements do not describe that run. No sale was repeated.

Evidence: /tmp/ticker-repair-r3-eow-five-session-carry-review.json and the actual September 5 daily exit log.

2026-09-11 — Fourteen In-Zone Rows. One Receipt Cleared. 55 Open.

THINK: Portfolio: 55 open, 46 closed (27W / 19L). Invested $54,515.50. Current value $55,819.77. Unrealized +$1,304.27. Realized +$4,631.05. Ledger shape unchanged: startingCapital $0.00, cash $0.00, reconciles: false, unreconciled $49,884.45 — the notional signal-tracker signature, not a data fault. Three closes since 09-04, all mechanical: SYK 09-08 at $276.43, −17.9%, stop; MCD 09-09 at $253.48, −15.3%, stop; NGKIF 09-10 at $33.42, closed on coverage retirement of a thin pink-sheet mirror. Two more stop blow-throughs — 6 of the last 8 stops exited past −15%.

Exit-check ran ahead of this session desk-wide and again scoped to this book: 55 checked, 0 SELL, 7 TRIM, 0 WATCH, 48 HOLD. All 7 TRIM carry [perspective-fading], every one stamped "Original P&L verdict: No exit rules triggered."

Actions file 09-11: capitulation band (RSI < 20) has one row after five consecutive empty cycles — TJX $126.02 RSI 17.8. Oversold band (RSI 20-30) carries 13 rows: RARE 20.2, HRL 23.2, PL 23.5, RCL 24.4, LHX 24.9, NIO 27.3, SYK 27.8, NCLH 28.3, ITA 28.5, DD 29.2, HON 29.3, BKNG 30.0, CCL 30.0. Approaching band (RSI 30-40): 31 rows, out of rule. Fourteen in-zone rows is this book's widest board since 04-26.

ANALYZE: Three of the 14 are already open — LHX, ITA, HON. Rule 6, duplicates, no fill. Eleven are new signals and all eleven pass every mechanical check: tradeable, OHLC present, 2026-09-11 close bars, RSI matching the digest. The receipt requirement decides all eleven.

Two of the eleven are this book's own recent stop-outs re-entering the band. SYK stopped 09-08 at −17.9% and printed RSI 27.8 three sessions later. TJX stopped 09-02 at −15.5% and printed RSI 17.8 nine sessions later, the board's lowest read of the stretch. This is the second and third instance of the case shape first recorded on 09-04: rule 6 only screens names still open, so the receipt gate is again the only thing between this ledger and buying back its own stop-outs.

Ten of the eleven fail the receipt requirement, documented row by row above. The failures split three ways. Four have no usable artifact at all and a checked, dated absence of cause — RARE (news 09-04, nothing new; no stock-event), SYK (news pulled fresh 09-11, routine coverage only; no stock-event), TJX (news 08-28, a three-week-old downgrade), BKNG (news 08-04, nothing covering a −10.02% week). Two have receipts too old to read anything from, so no absence claim is available either — NCLH (06-21) and CCL (07-07). Four have current artifacts that argue against ownership rather than for it — PL carries thesisState: broken and a confirmed guidance cut; RCL, NIO and HRL are all below their 200-day with negative years and a scan read that names each a breakdown. HRL's prior receipt path is now gone entirely: the livestock-disease perspective that carried the 08-28 and 09-04 reads is no longer in the active perspective set.

DD is the exception and the first candidate in this book's record to clear the gate. Two current artifacts, both pointing toward ownership, neither against. The 08-04 earnings event is stamped event_status: reported, overall: beat, basis actual-vs-analyst-consensus from yfinance, fetched 2026-08-12: EPS $1.88 actual against $1.76 estimate, +6.75% surprise, the stock +4.3% across the print. Its own relevance_until runs to 2026-11-02, so it is current by the corpus's stamp, not by my read of it. Caveat recorded: actuals_pending: true — no filed quarter covers the print yet, so this is a consensus comparison, not filing authority. The 09-11 chemicals scan corroborates independently: DuPont is the cohort's clear long-term winner, +29.77% on the year with the sector's best alpha at +13.55, against a cohort where Dow's alpha just flipped negative and Sherwin-Williams, Air Products and Linde all crossed or deepened below their 200-day.

The long-horizon read on DD, stated straight: change1y +29.77%, alpha1y +13.55, regime basing — but vsSma200 −7.3%. The year is strongly positive; the 200-day is not cleared. By the desk's own two-number test this is a mixed case, not a cleanly intact trend, and the 200-day is the level that decides which it becomes. That does not change this book's mechanics — it has no trend rule — but it is the honest frame, and it is the first line of what breaks the thesis.

Entry planning coverage: trade-plan DD --as-of 2026-09-11 returns support: research-only, entry state research, with both warnings set — no receipted tactic, no receipted archetype, therefore no entry predicate, sizing anchor or invalidation. Logged as a coverage gap; no plan fields invented. Timing and $1,000 sizing come from this book's own written rules, as they always have.

Thin thesis, DD:

• What must be true: DuPont keeps out-earning the chemicals cohort. The 08-04 beat (EPS $1.88 vs $1.76 consensus, +6.75%, yfinance basis, no filed quarter yet) has to be a run rate, not a peak, and the +29.77% one-year lead over a visibly deteriorating sector has to hold.
• Why now: RSI 29.2 puts it in the oversold band on a −12.04% thirty-day decline, and it is the only in-zone row this cycle whose one-year return and alpha are both positive.
• What breaks it: failure to reclaim the 200-day, which it now sits 7.3% below; the 11-05 print missing; or the one-year lead compressing toward the cohort's negative-alpha group. Mechanically, the −15% stop and +20% target own the exit as always.

DECIDE:

1. BUY DD at $126.99. $1,000. Receipt: the 08-04 earnings event, current through 11-02. Plan coverage: gap, research-only.
2. PASS on TJX, RARE, HRL, PL, RCL, NIO, SYK, NCLH, BKNG, CCL. Ten missing-thesis passes, each with its checked artifacts named above.
3. No fill on LHX, ITA, HON. Already open. Duplicates.
4. No fills from the 31-row approaching band. Out of rule.
5. HOLD all 7 TRIM advisories — XLU, GLD, NVDA, AMZN, INDA, APD, META. Every one is [perspective-fading] with "No exit rules triggered" in its own P&L line. This book's written exit rules are −15% and +20%, and "no regime awareness" is an explicit written constraint. A closed perspective is not one of the two exits. No sell proposed.

Fork proposals: one. Rule 6's duplicate screen reads only currently-open positions, and this cycle produced two of this book's own recent stop-outs back in the band (SYK, TJX) — three instances in three cycles now. A forked book with a cooling-off rule ("a name closed by stop-loss is not re-entered for N sessions") would isolate whether re-entry after a stop is where this system loses money. That is a hypothesis for a separate scientist book, not an edit to this one; both names were caught by the receipt gate this cycle anyway.

REFLECT: First fill since 08-08, and the first candidate ever to clear the receipt gate in this book. That matters for the measurement more than the position does. The gate has now run four cycles: 08-28 one candidate, one rejection; 09-04 seven candidates, seven rejections; 09-11 eleven candidates, ten rejections and one admission. A gate that only ever says no is measuring nothing except its own strictness — DD is the first evidence it discriminates rather than blocks, and DD's outcome is now the first real data point on the second question the 08-28 session opened: does the receipt requirement filter losers, or filter signal.

Second finding: the supply story inverted. Five cycles of an empty capitulation band ended with 14 in-zone rows, the widest board since April — and the widening is concentrated in travel/leisure (RCL, NCLH, BKNG, CCL all in band at once), defense (LHX, ITA), and consumer (TJX, HRL). The mechanical entry rule finally has candidates again; the receipt corpus does not have theses to match them. Ten of eleven rejections and six of those with a news receipt older than the move itself is the actual bottleneck this cycle, not the screen.

Third: the stop keeps slipping. SYK exited at −17.9% and MCD at −15.3% against a −15% rule, both this week. That is 6 of the last 8 stops closing past the threshold, consistent with the 03-03 observation and with weekly scanning frequency being the cause.

Trades Executed:

Evolved Rules — additions

No rule text changes. Two observations appended under Trade Patterns, neither operative:

• [09-11 OBSERVATION] Rule 6's duplicate screen reads only open positions, so a stop-out re-entering the band is invisible to it. Three instances in three cycles: TJX 09-02 stop → 09-04 re-entry, SYK 09-08 stop → 09-11 re-entry, TJX again 09-11 at the board's lowest RSI. The receipt gate caught all three. A cooling-off rule is a fork hypothesis, not a change here.
• [09-11 OBSERVATION] First receipt-gate admission. The gate's rejection record stands at 18 of 19 candidates across four cycles. DD is the single admission and its outcome is the first measurement of whether the gate filters losers or filters signal.

2026-09-18 — Eighteen In-Zone Rows. One Receipt Cleared. 52 Open.

THINK: Portfolio: 52 open, 49 closed (29W / 20L). Invested $51,515.50. Current value $51,854.93. Unrealized +$339.43. Realized +$4,672.13. Cash $0.00, starting capital $0.00, reconciles false, unreconciled $46,843.37 — the notional signal-tracker signature, unchanged. Three closes since 09-11, all mechanical: META 09-14 at $665.60, +21.0%, profit target; RBLX 09-14 at $51.29, +33.7%, profit target; CRS 09-15 at $415.32, -15.7%, stop. Two targets in one session is this book's first such pair since 04-26; the prior target was DE on 09-01.

Exit-check ran ahead of this session (Phase 5a, --execute): 131 positions desk-wide, 0 SELL, 20 TRIM, 3 WATCH, 108 HOLD. This book's rows: 6 TRIM, 1 WATCH (PEP -14.0%, approaching the -15% stop), 45 HOLD. All six TRIM carry [perspective-fading], every one stamped "Original P&L verdict: No exit rules triggered."

Actions file 09-18: capitulation band (RSI < 20) empty. Oversold band (RSI 20-30): 18 rows — RCL 22.6, CASY 23.8, CRS 23.8, ENVA 25.2, IONS 25.4, PEP 25.4, ITA 26.1, NCLH 26.5, CCL 27.1, BKNG 27.4, RARE 28.1, ELVN 28.3, HD 28.3, SBUX 28.8, PPA 29.4, CVS 29.6, PL 29.8, KOD 29.9. Approaching band (RSI 30-40): out of rule. Eighteen in-zone rows is this book's widest board on record; the prior high was 14 on 09-11.

One ledger fact first: the DD entry admitted on 09-11 never filled. The last BUY in this ledger is dated 08-22. DD prints RSI 40.5 today and is out of the band, so rule 1 does not re-fire.

ANALYZE: Five of the 18 are already open — PEP, ITA, HD, SBUX, CVS. Rule 6, duplicates, no fill. Thirteen are new signals and all thirteen pass every mechanical check: tradeable, OHLC present, 2026-09-18 close bars, RSI matching the digest. The receipt requirement decides thirteen.

CRS clears, and it is the second candidate ever to do so. Two current artifacts point toward ownership. The 09-18 supply-chain-traces scan: RSI 23.8, the lowest reading in that book since tracking began, on a -7.91% week and a -19.97% month, and "the horizon check still favors Carpenter: up 65.4% over the trailing year with alpha of +50.39" — a deep pullback, with $408-437 named as the zone. The company's own receipt, from a pull completed 2026-09-18: record operating income up 34% year over year in the last reported quarter, FY2027 guidance for further growth, an additional $1.0 billion repurchase authorization, and an SEC filing item carrying operating income of $206.9 million and diluted EPS of $3.23. Against that: it lost its 200-day this week and sits 6.7% below it, the -7.91% week has no dated cause on the pull, and the July quarter is not on this desk's event record as a filed event — the October 22 print is the only CRS entry in the events record. Entry planning coverage: the shared plan returns support research-only, no receipted tactic, no receipted archetype, therefore no entry predicate, sizing anchor or invalidation. Logged as a coverage gap, exactly as DD was; no plan fields invented.

CRS is also this book's own stop-out from three sessions ago — closed 09-15 at -15.7%, back in the band at 23.8. That is the fourth instance of the shape first recorded on 09-04, and the first one where the receipt gate admits the re-entry instead of catching it. Rule 6 screens only currently-open names and rule 1 carries no exception, so the mechanics say buy.

Twelve fail the receipt requirement, and they split three ways. Six carry a current desk verdict that argues against ownership rather than for it: RCL, NCLH and CCL are ❌ DON'T BUY in the travel scan with one-year losses of 24.55% to 44.43% and alpha worse than -39; IONS is ❌ Avoid at a new cut-low with no established cause; RARE has a real dated FDA clearance and the biotech scan's verdict on that exact fact is still ❌ Avoid — "an approval stopped the slide; it has not turned the trend"; PL is rated broken for the third straight cycle. Two fail on business class: ELVN and KOD are clinical-stage biotechs, and neither has a receipt newer than June 21. Two are baskets or cohorts where the desk's own read is explicitly against: PPA, where the defense scan says buying the fund buys L3Harris and Boeing too, with zero of twelve defense names above their 200-day; BKNG, whose break keeps compounding with no covering receipt. Two are the interesting failures. CASY has the cycle's best mechanical case for a receipt — a filed 09-08 quarter, EPS $7.37 against $6.82 consensus, +8.09%, current on the corpus's own stamp to 12-07 — but neither desk artifact endorses owning it: the retail scan rates it Watch and the retail candidate file files it in "the desk's genuinely broken cohort," 18.2% below its 200-day with alpha -5.12, and the stock fell on the beat. That is the NIO shape, not the DD shape. ENVA has a fresh pull and no scan discussion at all: the bullish item in the pull is a July 23 quarterly release, the September 3 item is a valuation caution, and nothing covers the -21.82% week.

The six TRIM advisories are the same class this book declined on 09-11, and that decision now has an outcome attached. META was one of the seven declined at +17.9%; it closed three sessions later at +21.0% on the +20% rule. The written exits remain -15% and +20%; "no regime awareness" remains a written constraint; a closed campaign is neither.

DECIDE:

1. BUY CRS. $1,000. Proposed after Friday's settled close; per the next-noon fill policy the canonical fill lands Monday 2026-09-21 at 12:00 ET — no price invented ahead of that fill. Receipt: the 09-18 supply-chain-traces scan plus the company's 2026-09-18 pull. Plan coverage: gap, research-only.
2. PASS on RCL, CASY, ENVA, IONS, NCLH, CCL, BKNG, RARE, ELVN, PPA, PL, KOD. Twelve missing-thesis passes, each with its checked artifacts named above.
3. No fill on PEP, ITA, HD, SBUX, CVS. Already open. Duplicates.
4. No fills from the approaching band. Out of rule.
5. HOLD all six TRIM advisories — XLU, GLD, APD, AMZN, INDA, NVDA. Every one is [perspective-fading] with "No exit rules triggered" in its own P&L line. No sell, no partial.
6. No re-proposal of DD. Out of the band at RSI 40.5; the 09-11 proposal is recorded as admitted-and-unfilled, not as a position.

Fork proposals: one, restated and now sharper. The cooling-off hypothesis — "a name closed by stop-loss is not re-entered for N sessions" — has been on the record since 09-11 as a hypothesis for a separate scientist book. Until today the receipt gate caught every stop-out that re-entered the band (TJX twice, SYK once). CRS is the first where the gate admits the re-entry, so the two mechanisms now genuinely disagree and the fork is the only way to measure which is right. Not an edit to this book.

REFLECT: Three findings. First, the gate's measurement is still at zero outcomes. DD was admitted on 09-11 and never reached the ledger, so after four candidate-bearing cycles and 32 candidates the gate has produced two admissions and no fills. Whether the receipt requirement filters losers or filters signal remains untested, and CRS is now the first chance to answer it.

Second, the faded-thesis advisory got its first score, and it went against the advisory. META was declined at +17.9% on 09-11 and closed at +21.0% on the mechanical target three sessions later. One data point, in favor of the written rules over the advisory — which is the entire reason this book exists frozen through 10-08.

Third, the supply side widened again while the receipt side stayed narrow: 18 in-zone rows, the widest board on record, and 12 of 13 new candidates rejected. Six of the twelve carry an explicit desk verdict against ownership, which is a different bottleneck from the corpus-freshness gap that dominated 09-11. This week the desk has read the names and does not want them.

Stop slippage continues: CRS exited at -15.7% against the -15% rule, making 7 of the last 9 stops close past the threshold.

Trades Executed:

2026-09-23 — Seventeen In-Zone Rows. Zero Receipts Cleared. One Stop. 51 Open.

THINK: Portfolio: 51 open, 51 closed (30W / 21L). Invested $50,515.50. Current value $50,601.17. Unrealized +$85.67. Realized +$4,827.45. Cash $0.00, starting capital $0.00, reconciles false, unreconciled $45,688.05 — the notional signal-tracker signature, unchanged. Closes since 09-18: one target-side close by 09-22 (record 29W → 30W on the ledger stats; ARM, +13.3% on 09-18, is no longer in the open list) and BRBR tonight on the stop. CRS, proposed 09-18, filled Monday 09-21 at $401.88 — the first receipt-gate admission to reach this ledger. Tonight: -1.7%.

Exit-check ran ahead of this session (--execute): 52 checked, 1 SELL, 6 TRIM, 1 WATCH, 44 HOLD. SELL executed: BRBR 98.135427 shares at $8.44, -17.2%, P&L -$171.74, stop. TRIM: XLU -12.0% (near-stop + faded thesis), GLD -5.8%, AMZN +0.8%, APD +3.0%, INDA +3.1%, NVDA +6.8% (faded thesis). WATCH: PEP -13.7%.

Actions file 09-23: capitulation band (RSI < 20) empty; deepest print RCL 20.5. Oversold band (RSI 20-30): 17 rows — RCL 20.5, CRS 21.2, BKNG 21.4, HRL 23.0, CVS 24.4, LHX 24.5, NKTR 24.6, MCD 25.9, GD 26.2, SBUX 26.3, ABNB 26.5, CASY 27.0, IONS 27.3, NVO 27.5, BCE 27.7, NCLH 28.2, IMVT 28.5. Approaching band (RSI 30-40): out of rule. Cross-asset, per the digest: five-year Treasury above 5% for the first time since 2007; nine of eleven sector funds down over 30 days. Logged; not an input to this book.

ANALYZE: Four of the 17 are open — CRS, CVS, LHX, SBUX. Rule 6, duplicates. Thirteen are new. The receipt requirement decides thirteen. No 09-18 company profile and no 09-20 to 09-23 deep dive exists for any of the thirteen; the 09-23 scans and candidate files are the only current artifacts.

Desk verdict against ownership, nine rows: RCL and BKNG — travel scan DON'T BUY, alpha worse than -45, breaches widening. NCLH — DON'T BUY, death cross confirmed, -44.54% 1Y. HRL and MCD — defensive scan Avoid, below the 200-day on flat-to-negative years, both news files predating the moves (08-31, 08-04); retail scan also Avoid on MCD. IONS and NVO — biotech scan Avoid; NVO has a sourced cause (09-20 2030 growth targets) and no confirmed floor, -35.9% 1Y. BCE — AI scan Avoid, confirmed damage, no sourced cause. NKTR — biotech scan Avoid, capitulation print with no cause; news file last pulled 06-21, a coverage gap, not an absence; long test flipped to failing (-3.26% 1Y, -11.9% vs 200-day).

Watch verdict, no endorsement, three rows: GD — defense scan Watch, 3.4% below its 200-day, +6.23% 1Y, the $355.39 reclaim named as the level. CASY — retail scan and retail candidate file Watch, 18.2% below its 200-day, base not found; same failure as 09-18. ABNB — travel scan Watch and insider scan Alert: first oversold-plus-insider-selling flag this cycle, cushion 5.0% above its 200-day from 17.2%, +21.12% 1Y.

Business class, one row: IMVT — the biotech scan reads it as a deep pullback in an intact trend (+131.8% 1Y, +10.0% vs 200-day) with verdict Watch; the digest applies the clinical-stage business-quality veto. Same class as ELVN and KOD on 09-18.

MCD is this book's 09-09 stop-out (-15.3%) back in the band — fifth instance of the stop-out-re-entry shape. The receipt gate catches it.

The six TRIM advisories are the same class held on 09-11 and 09-18. Written exits: -15% and +20%. "No regime awareness" is a written constraint. XLU at -12.0% is inside the -15% stop. A closed campaign is not an exit rule.

DECIDE:

1. PASS on RCL, BKNG, HRL, NKTR, MCD, GD, ABNB, CASY, IONS, NVO, BCE, NCLH, IMVT. Thirteen missing-thesis passes, artifacts checked named above.
2. No fill on CRS, CVS, LHX, SBUX. Already open. Duplicates.
3. No fills from the approaching band. Out of rule.
4. HOLD all six TRIM rows — XLU, GLD, AMZN, APD, INDA, NVDA. No written exit fires. No partial.
5. PEP WATCH, -13.7%. Observation only; the stop owns it.
6. BRBR closed by the stop, executed ahead of this session. No further action.

Fork proposals: none new. The cooling-off hypothesis stands as recorded 09-11 and 09-18; MCD is its fifth instance.

REFLECT: Gate record: five candidate-bearing cycles, 45 candidates, 2 admissions, 1 fill. CRS -1.7% after two sessions — one outcome in progress, not a measurement yet. Tonight 13 of 13 rejected; 9 of 13 carry an explicit Avoid or DON'T BUY, 3 a Watch, 1 a business-class veto. Supply side: 17 in-zone rows, second-widest on record after 18 on 09-18. Stop slippage: BRBR -17.2% against a -15% rule — 8 of the last 10 stops past the threshold. Faded-thesis advisory record: one scored outcome (META, 09-14, +21.0% target), in favor of the written rules; six held, none resolved by a written rule this week.

Trades Executed:

2026-09-25 — Seventeen In-Zone Rows. Zero Receipts Cleared. Two Stop-Outs Back in Zone. 50 Open.

THINK: Portfolio: 50 open, 52 closed (30W / 22L). Invested $49,515.50. Current value $49,602.89. Unrealized +$87.39. Realized +$4,677.08. Cash $0.00, starting capital $0.00, reconciles false, unreconciled $44,838.42 — the notional signal-tracker signature, unchanged. One close since 09-23: PEP 09-24, 6.63 shares at $128.15, −15.0%, stop. It closed on the threshold, not through it. CRS, the gate's only fill (09-21 at $401.88), is at $396.84, −1.25%, four sessions in.

Exit-check ran before this session (--execute, 14:25 PT). This book: 50 checked, 0 SELL, 6 TRIM, 1 WATCH, 43 HOLD. TRIM: XLU −12.5% (near-stop + faded thesis); GLD −5.7%, AMZN +1.0%, APD +1.1%, INDA +2.7%, NVDA +6.6% (faded thesis only). WATCH: DPZ −12.3%. Breakers: this book has no breaker row.

Actions file 09-25: capitulation band (RSI < 20) empty; deepest print HRL 21.6. Oversold band (RSI 20–30): 17 rows — HRL 21.6, BCE 22.1, NEE 22.8, GD 23.2, LHX 23.5, CRS 24.5, MCD 24.7, IMVT 25.1, BRBR 25.8, NKTR 27.1, CASY 27.5, PEP 28.9, RTX 29.1, INTU 29.6, BWXT 29.7, NIO 29.7, IONS 29.8. The approaching band (RSI 30–40) has 73 rows, out of rule. XLU and XLRE both print RSI 24.1, but the digest routes sector funds to Sector Rotation, not Entry Zones, so rule 1 does not fire on either. Recorded, not an input.

ANALYZE: Four of the 17 are open: NEE, LHX, CRS, BWXT. Rule 6, duplicates. Thirteen are new, all with 2026-09-25 bars. The receipt requirement decides all thirteen.

Two of the thirteen are this book's own stop-outs back in the band:

• BRBR stopped 09-23 at $8.44 (−17.2%) and now prints RSI 25.8 at $7.91.
• PEP stopped 09-24 at $128.15 (−15.0%) and printed RSI 28.9 at $128.63 one session later, above its own exit price.

These are the sixth and seventh instances of the stop-out re-entry shape. MCD, the fifth (stopped 09-09), is still in the band. The receipt gate caught all three.

Desk verdict against ownership, eight rows:

• HRL: defensive scan Avoid, "a watch item, not an entry"; the 09-24 news pull holds nothing on the slide; −19.25% 1Y.
• BCE: AI scan Avoid, confirmed damage; the only news is a generic item that names no cause; −9.02% 1Y.
• MCD:
  • Defensive scan Avoid; retail scan Alert, "a falling knife, not a discount"; bargain-bin, "not zones — damage".
  • Cause on file: the 09-23 investor-day remodel and ad-spend plan, and the CEO saying high inflation and flat traffic will persist.
  • −21.77% 1Y, 19.0% below its 200-day.
• BRBR: cultural-thesis scan Don't buy, thesis broken; the 09-23 company profile reads "a mid-20s RSI is a symptom, not an entry"; −78.41% 1Y.
• NKTR: biotech scan Avoid, no cause found. The news pull is dated 06-21, a coverage gap rather than proof of no news. −12.8% vs 200-day.
• IONS: biotech scan Avoid, fails both long tests; −29.33% 1Y, −37.5% vs 200-day.
• PEP: bargain-bin Avoid; the 09-19 news pull predates the move; −8.07% 1Y.
• INTU: today's software industry report, verdict "too early, with value-trap risk". The FY27 growth guide was cut to 9–10%, the thesis has been rated broken seven straight weeks, and the report says to revisit only after a base above $262.24 and a close over the 50-day. −60.19% 1Y.

Watch verdict, no endorsement, four rows:

• GD: Watch in the defense and geopolitical scans, "no zone", break deepened to −5.3% vs its 200-day. A 07-29 beat (EPS +6.86%, consensus basis, current to 10-27) is on file, but a beat alone is not an ownership case (the CASY and NIO precedent).
• CASY: retail scan and retail candidates both Watch, "watch the 50-day before any zone", floor not found. Third straight PASS.
• NIO: EV/clean-energy scan Watch, "no zone"; −52.07% 1Y, −29.7% vs 200-day; the 09-06 news pull predates the move.
• RTX: the closest call tonight.
  • For: +18.0% 1Y and a 07-23 beat on file (EPS +13.71%, consensus basis, current to 10-21). The drone-defense scan names a $189–198 zone ("pullback-shaped, not broken"), which contains tonight's $189.40.
  • Against: that same scan's action is Watch, and the defense-contractors and geopolitical scans both say "no zone, break deepened" (−2.7% vs the $194.69 200-day). The defense scan calls a reclaim of $194.69 "the first evidence this stays a pullback". Alpha is +0.78, barely positive.
  • The 09-11 admission test was "both pointing toward ownership, neither against"; RTX's artifacts split, so it fails.

Business class, one row:

• IMVT: +112.51% 1Y, +5.7% vs 200-day, biotech scan Watch ("confirm a floor before adding"). Clinical-stage veto, and no news file is on record.

DECIDE:

1. PASS on HRL, BCE, GD, MCD, IMVT, BRBR, NKTR, CASY, PEP, RTX, INTU, NIO, IONS: thirteen missing-thesis passes, with the artifacts checked named above.
2. No fill on NEE, LHX, CRS, BWXT. Already open. Duplicates.
3. No fills from the approaching band (73 rows). Out of rule.
4. HOLD all six TRIM rows (XLU, GLD, AMZN, APD, INDA, NVDA). No written exit fires, no partial.
5. DPZ WATCH, −12.3%. Observation only; the stop owns it.
6. PEP was closed by the stop before this session. No further action.

Fork proposals: none new. The cooling-off hypothesis ("a name closed by stop-loss is not re-entered for N sessions") stands as recorded 09-11 and 09-18. It has seven instances now, two of them in this cycle, and PEP re-entered one session after its stop, the fastest yet. It belongs to a separate scientist book, not this one.

REFLECT:

• Gate record: six candidate-bearing cycles, 58 candidates, 2 admissions, 1 fill. Tonight 13 of 13 were rejected: 8 Avoid / Don't Buy / pass verdicts, 4 Watch, 1 business-class veto.
• Supply: 17 in-zone rows, level with 09-23 (17). The 18 on 09-18 is still the record.
• Scored outcomes: the gate's only fill, CRS, is −1.25% after four sessions; one outcome in progress, not yet a measurement. The faded-thesis advisory has one scored outcome, META (+21.0% target, 09-14), in favor of the written rules. The six held advisories were not resolved by a written rule this cycle; XLU deepened from −12.0% to −12.5%.
• Stops: PEP closed at −15.0%, on the threshold rather than through it.
• Freeze: it ends 10-08.

Trades Executed:

2026-10-02 — Thirty In-Zone Rows. Zero Receipts Cleared. Zero Exits. 50 Open.

THINK: Portfolio: 50 open, 52 closed (30W / 22L). Invested $49,515.50. Current value $49,388.10. Unrealized −$127.40. Realized +$4,677.08. Cash $0.00, starting capital $0.00, reconciles false, unreconciled $44,838.42 — the notional signal-tracker signature, unchanged. Closes since 09-25: none. CRS, the gate's only fill (09-21 at $401.88), is at $388.47, −3.34%, nine sessions in. Breakers: this book has no breaker row.

Exit-check ran before this session (--execute). This book: 50 checked, 0 SELL, 6 TRIM, 4 WATCH, 40 HOLD. TRIM, faded thesis only: XLU −11.8%, GLD −8.9%, APD −0.4%, INDA −0.2%, AMZN +1.7%, NVDA +10.8%. WATCH, near-stop: BWXT −14.0%, TTD −13.5%, WMT −13.3%, HD −12.1%. Nearest target: TTMI +19.3%.

Actions file 10-02: capitulation band (RSI < 20) has one row, BCE 18.2 — the first sub-20 print since TJX on 09-11. Oversold band (RSI 20–30): 29 rows — HLSQ 20.8, GD 21.0, NESR 21.2, NKTR 22.0, BRBR 22.9, MCD 23.8, RTX 23.9, NOC 24.9, NIO 25.1, LOW 25.4, PEP 25.5, XPEV 25.6, HD 25.8, LHX 26.0, HROW 26.1, BMRN 26.7, NVO 27.0, FMC 27.1, AXGN 27.5, MT 28.1, CRS 28.2, NKE 28.2, AXSM 28.5, KRKNF 28.5, IMVT 28.6, RYTM 29.3, TTD 29.6, ABT 29.7, DNTH 29.7. Thirty in-zone rows is the widest board on record (prior high 18, 09-18). Approaching band (RSI 30–40): out of rule. Bond, credit and sector funds go to Sector Rotation, not Entry Zones. Recorded, not an input.

ANALYZE: Four of the 30 are open: HD, LHX, CRS, TTD. Rule 6, duplicates. KRKNF is an OTC line of a Canadian primary, research-only, refused by the doors. Twenty-five are new, all with 2026-10-02 bars. Nine repeat from 09-25 (BCE, GD, MCD, IMVT, BRBR, NKTR, PEP, RTX, NIO). Sixteen are first-time rows. The receipt requirement decides all twenty-five.

Against ownership, nine rows:

• LOW: the 09-28 company profile's call is "Out — no entry while below the 200-day", with entry only after a reclaim. −21.9% vs 200-day, −26.9% 1Y.
• NOC: defense scan Don't Buy, down on the year, deep gap. −20.99% 1Y.
• FMC: food-security scan Don't buy, worst on every window. −73.15% 1Y.
• BRBR: cultural-thesis Don't Buy, thesis broken. −79.28% 1Y.
• HLSQ: drone-defense Don't Buy. A biotech-to-defense pivot micro-cap after a 1:10 reverse split; business-quality veto.
• NKE: cultural-thesis Avoid, bargain-bin Don't buy. Sourced cause: the 10-01 print beat on EPS and missed on sales, with restructuring layoffs. −54.58% 1Y, −30.5% vs 200-day.
• MCD: defensive scan Avoid, retail scan Watch with trend broken. This week's slide has no cause on file. −22.67% 1Y.
• ABT, HROW: healthcare scan Avoid, below the 200-day on negative years (−26.69% and −36.14% 1Y).

Watch verdict, no endorsement, six rows:

• RTX: defense scan Watch with "no entry until the line is retaken"; drone-defense Watch. −5.2% vs the 200-day, 1-year alpha now −4.17 (it passed last week). The October 20 report is the scheduled test.
• GD: defense scan Watch, need the 200-day. −7.1% vs 200-day, and its year has turned negative (−3.21%).
• PEP: bargain-bin Watch, wait for repair. −14.5% vs 200-day.
• NIO, XPEV: EV scan Watch, washout in a broken trend, no company-specific receipt. −57.29% and −61.15% 1Y.
• BMRN: biotech scan "no entry zone", mixed long trend. Lost its 200-day this week (−2.5%).

Business class, four rows:

• NKTR: clinical-stage veto, fails both long tests (−33.4% vs 200-day).
• IMVT, DNTH: intact trends (+100.96% and +138.86% 1Y), clinical-stage veto.
• NVO: biotech Watch/laggard, −36.47% 1Y, no floor.

Screen row only, no company case on disk, six rows:

• MT: the digest's only Accumulate tag — +69.05% 1Y, +3.9% vs 200-day, alpha +54.05. The only corpus item is a monster-scan Steady Climbers table row. The digest's own pending-research row says to pull news for the week's drop before treating the print as an entry. A screen nominates; a thesis admits. No receipt.
• NESR, AXGN, AXSM: monster-scan Secular rows only, large positive years, all just under their 200-days, causes unknown, news stale or empty.
• RYTM: monster-scan row only, negative alpha, fails the horizon check.
• BCE: AI-scan Research verdict, cause unknown, −15.07% 1Y. Second straight PASS.

BRBR (stopped 09-23), PEP (stopped 09-24) and MCD (stopped 09-09) are this book's own stop-outs, still in the band. No new instances; seven total. The receipt gate caught all three again.

The six TRIM advisories are the same class held 09-11 through 09-25. Written exits: −15% and +20%. "No regime awareness" is a written constraint. A closed campaign is not an exit rule.

DECIDE:

1. PASS on BCE, HLSQ, GD, NESR, NKTR, BRBR, MCD, RTX, NOC, NIO, LOW, PEP, XPEV, HROW, BMRN, NVO, FMC, AXGN, MT, NKE, AXSM, IMVT, RYTM, ABT, DNTH: twenty-five missing-thesis passes, with the artifacts checked named above.
2. No fill on HD, LHX, CRS, TTD. Already open. Duplicates.
3. KRKNF: research-only. Not a candidate.
4. No fills from the approaching band. Out of rule.
5. HOLD all six TRIM rows (XLU, GLD, APD, INDA, AMZN, NVDA). No written exit fires, no partial.
6. BWXT, TTD, WMT, HD WATCH. Observation only; the stop owns each.

Fork proposals: none new. The cooling-off hypothesis stands as recorded 09-11 and 09-18 (seven instances).

REFLECT:

• Gate record: seven candidate-bearing cycles, 83 candidates, 2 admissions, 1 fill. Tonight 25 of 25 were rejected: 9 against-ownership verdicts, 6 Watch, 4 business-class vetoes, 6 screen-row-only.
• Supply: 30 in-zone rows, a record (prior 18, 09-18). Widening and quality moved opposite ways. Every non-biotech row except MT and NESR sits below its 200-day. MT is the first non-biotech intact-trend row in the band since this log began tracking it. Its pass is a missing-receipt pass, not a negative verdict. Measuring MT from $64.51 without a position is the cleanest test yet of whether the gate filters signal.
• Scored outcomes: CRS, the gate's only fill, is −3.34% after nine sessions; no outcome yet. The faded-thesis advisory still has one scored outcome, META (+21.0% target, 09-14), in favor of the written rules. XLU improved from −12.5% to −11.8%; NVDA from +6.6% to +10.8%.
• Stops: none fired this week. Four names sit within 3 points of −15% (BWXT, TTD, WMT, HD). TTMI is 0.7 points from +20%.
• Freeze: it ends 10-08, the next session.

Trades Executed:

2026-10-09 — Twenty-Six In-Zone Rows. Zero Receipts Cleared. Two Targets Hit. 48 Open.

THINK: Portfolio: 48 open, 54 closed (32W / 22L). Invested $47,515.50. Current value $47,870.88. Unrealized +$355.38. Realized +$5,084.61. Cash $0.00 and starting capital $0.00. Reconciles false, unreconciled $42,430.89: the notional signal-tracker signature, unchanged.

Two closes since 10-02, both +20% targets:

• TTMI on 10-05: 9.046499 shares at $133.14, +20.4%.
• TLN on 10-07: 3.180055 shares at $378.32, +20.3%.

Realized moved +$407.53. Both entered 08-22, before the receipt rule.

CRS, the gate's only fill (09-21 at $401.88), is at $385.81, −4.0%, fourteen sessions in. Breakers: this book has no breaker row. The term-sheet freeze ended 10-08 and the row still reads frozen.

Phase 5a outcome: exit-check ran before this session and executed. This book: 48 checked, 0 SELL, 6 TRIM, 2 WATCH, 40 HOLD.

• TRIM, faded thesis only: XLU −8.3%, GLD −7.8%, INDA −1.2%, APD +0.9%, AMZN +6.2%, NVDA +8.6%.
• WATCH, near-stop: BG −13.8%, TTD −12.5%.
• Nearest targets: ONON +16.9%, XLE +16.6%.

Actions file 10-09:

• Capitulation band (RSI < 20): 2 rows. BCE 17.1, NESR 19.7.
• Oversold band (RSI 20–30): 24 rows. IMVT 20.5, HLSQ 21.8, VZ 21.8, AXSM 22.7, BMRN 22.9, NKTR 22.9, DNTH 23, MOS 23.1, ELVN 23.8, HROW 24.3, HRL 25, RCAT 25.3, AXGN 25.7, ARGX 25.9, T 25.9, JAZZ 26.9, BBAI 27.6, PLUG 27.6, EOSE 28.7, SBUX 28.8, ESLT 29.1, TMUS 29.1, UUUU 29.4, SOUN 29.9.

That is 26 in-zone rows, down from the record 30 on 10-02. The approaching band is out of rule. Funds route to Sector Rotation. Recorded, not an input.

ANALYZE: Two of the 26 are open, VZ and SBUX: rule 6, duplicates. Twenty-four are new. Ten repeat from 10-02 (BCE, NESR, IMVT, HLSQ, AXSM, BMRN, NKTR, DNTH, HROW, AXGN) and fourteen are first-time rows against last cycle. The receipt requirement decides all 24.

Against ownership, ten rows (Don't Buy or a sourced negative cause):

• T, TMUS: sourced competitive shock. SpaceX agreed after the October 8 close to buy 800 MHz spectrum for Starlink mobile (CNBC, October 8), and the carriers fell Friday (CNBC, October 9). Both trends were broken before it: T −15.02% 1Y; TMUS −34.32% 1Y and −22.0% vs its 200-day.
• MOS: Don't Buy; fails every long window; −43.96% 1Y. The sector-wide fertilizer drop has no cause on file.
• HLSQ: Don't Buy; a sub-$1 biotech-to-defense pivot; business-quality veto.
• RCAT: Don't Buy; a knife, not a base; −60.64% 1Y.
• BBAI, SOUN: Don't Buy; speculative; business-quality veto.
• PLUG: Don't Buy; broken, no base; −55.56% 1Y.
• EOSE: Don't Buy. The Form 4 report puts net insider selling at −$25.1M, and aggregator items (StocksToTrade, Timothy Sykes, October 8) cite a litigation probe. −82.79% 1Y.
• UUUU: Don't Buy; broken on every window; −49.44% 1Y.

Broken trend with the cause unknown, three rows:

• BCE: deepest print on the board; −19.88% 1Y, −20.8% vs its 200-day. Third straight PASS.
• HRL: −19.27% 1Y, −16.8% vs its 200-day. Sixth PASS.
• HROW: −27.63% 1Y, −26.5% vs its 200-day.

Business class, four rows:

• IMVT: clinical-stage veto. It lost its 200-day this week (−4.4%).
• NKTR, DNTH, ELVN: clinical-stage veto.

Watch, no endorsement, two rows:

• ESLT: drone-defense scan Watch, with the gap under the 200-day widening to −15.6%. The drone-defense campaign (status monitoring) names it at the sensors layer. That is a mention, not an ownership case.
• BMRN: biotech scan reads a mixed long trend; −6.6% vs its 200-day on a +1.76% year. It reports 10-26.

Screen row only, no company case on file, four rows:

• NESR, AXSM, AXGN: monster-scan or carried rows only, with causes unknown.
• JAZZ: the digest's only Accumulate tag. +58.1% 1Y, +2.3% vs its 200-day, alpha +42.1.
  • What is on file: a monster-scan Steady Climbers row, two earnings stock events, and a September 6 classification row (no perspective, thesis unrated).
  • The 8-K filed October 9 (event October 6) is a filing-watch notice with its body unread. The capture itself says raw inputs are not a thesis source.
  • The JAZZ news file was pulled October 5 and holds only quote pages and earnings items, no news on the slide. The week's −9.49% 30D is cause unknown.
  • Same shape as MT on 10-02. No receipt.

Receipt on file but invalidated, one row:

• ARGX: the June 29 deep dive was BUY-eligible at medium conviction. Its stated break: "a clean break voids the uptrend structure (SMA200 ~$815 the deeper line)."
  • Tonight it closed at $825.03, under both the 50-day ($956.34) and the 200-day ($851.97, −3.2%). The receipt's own invalidation has fired.
  • The dive also predates the October 8 drop (Weiss Ratings and Mitrade, October 8). Mitrade ties the drop to the discontinued Phase 3 UNITY study; that is aggregator-reported, with no company release on file. The same day's company release reports positive Phase 2 celiac results (GlobeNewswire, October 8).
  • A frame older than the last big event on its subject is history. No current receipt.

Stop-out re-entry: zero instances this cycle. MCD (36.7), PEP (36.9) and BRBR (48.2) have left the band. The total stays at seven.

Book-exposure data, not a rule: VZ (−9.8%) is in the sourced telecom shock. BG (−13.8%), CF (−8.3%) and NTR (+0.3%) sit in Friday's fertilizer and grain drop, which has no cause on file. The −15% stop owns all four.

The six TRIM rows are the same class held from 09-11 through 10-02. The written exits are −15% and +20%.

DECIDE:

1. PASS on 24 rows, all missing-thesis passes, with the artifacts checked named above: BCE, NESR, IMVT, HLSQ, AXSM, BMRN, NKTR, DNTH, MOS, ELVN, HROW, HRL, RCAT, AXGN, ARGX, T, JAZZ, BBAI, PLUG, EOSE, ESLT, TMUS, UUUU, SOUN.
2. No fill on VZ or SBUX. Already open. Duplicates.
3. No fills from the approaching band. Out of rule.
4. HOLD all six TRIM rows (XLU, GLD, INDA, APD, AMZN, NVDA). No written exit fires.
5. BG and TTD are WATCH. Observation only; the stop owns each.

Fork proposals: none new. The cooling-off hypothesis stands as recorded on 09-11 and 09-18, at seven instances with none added.

REFLECT:

• Gate record: eight candidate-bearing cycles, 107 candidates, 2 admissions, 1 fill. Tonight 24 of 24 were rejected: 10 against ownership, 3 broken with the cause unknown, 4 business-class vetoes, 2 Watch, 4 screen-row-only, and 1 receipt invalidated by its own break line.
• Pre-gate cohort: two 08-22 mechanical fills hit +20% this week (TTMI, TLN). Pre-gate entries keep producing scored wins while the gate has produced one open fill. The comparison is not yet measurable: the gate has no closed outcome.
• Untaken-signal tracking: MT, passed 10-02 at $64.51, is at $64.11 (−0.62%) and still above its 200-day. JAZZ starts its untaken measurement from $218.42.
• CRS: −4.0% after fourteen sessions, now −12.9% under its 200-day, regime collapse. Pending.
• Faded-thesis advisory: still one scored outcome, META (+21.0% target, 09-14). XLU improved from −11.8% to −8.3%; NVDA moved from +10.8% to +8.6%.
• Freeze: it ended 10-08. This session changed no rule. Any post-freeze change goes through the fork process or a human call.

Trades Executed: