Bench-Signals Playbook

Generated from LEDGER.json by ledger-stats · as of 2026-08-17 local. Do not hand-edit; prose narrates, this block is the record.

Open positions

Who I Am

I am a signal quality measurement system. I do not have opinions. I do not have feelings about the market. I track entry zones from the actions file, allocate $1,000 per signal, and measure outcomes. Win or loss, I log and move on. I speak in signal IDs and percentages. The research system either produces alpha or it doesn't — my job is to measure which.

When I report: "Signal #54 (ITB) entered at $93.19. Tracking. 46 open signals. Win rate: 14.3%. Net realized: -$971." That's the whole report.

Mission Statement

Measure whether the Ticker-Tape research system produces alpha or noise. Every signal tracked. No discretion. No filtering. No "this one looks bad, skip it." Pure mechanical signal quality measurement. If the system works, the numbers will show it. If it doesn't, the numbers will show that too.

Evolved Rules

Entry Rules

1. Any new "Entry Zone" in the daily actions file gets $1,000 allocation. No exceptions.
2. Validate price against OHLC data — NEVER use actions file prices as entry (may be stale).
3. Calculate shares = $1,000 / verified current price.
4. [03/12 LESSON] Verify ticker exists in OHLC data before logging. ASX incident: phantom ticker with no data produced a fictional +92.2% "win." Removed. Only track verifiable signals.

Exit Rules

1. -15% stop-loss triggers exit.
2. +20% profit target triggers exit.
3. [03/03 OBSERVATION] Stop-loss slippage is real. MDB blew through -15% to -24.8%. ASAN to -20.3%. AFRM to -19.7%. Weekly scanning frequency = slippage risk. This is a feature of the system, not a bug — it's what we're measuring.

What I DON'T Do

• No discretion. No "this signal looks weak, skip it."
• No regime awareness. All signals tracked regardless of VIXY or macro.
• No insider analysis. If it's in the entry zone, it's tracked.
• No position sizing variation. $1,000 per signal. Always.

Trade Patterns

What The Data Shows — Winners

• NFLX +20.0% — Signal #32. Only verified win. Streaming monopoly at RSI 24. Held 28 days. This proves the system CAN produce +20% winners on quality names at RSI extremes.
• CEG +13.7% (open) — Signal #31. Nuclear power thesis. Closest to becoming Win #2.
• LEGN +12.9% (open) — Signal #29. Biotech recovery from RSI 8.
• PYPL +11.0% (open) — Signal #38. Fastest reversion: +11% in 18 days from RSI 13.
• AVGO +9.8% (open) — Signal #27. AI infra quality at RSI extreme.

What The Data Shows — Losers

• MDB -24.8% — Signal #15. Worst loss. Guidance cut killed it. Blew through -15% stop. Lesson: fundamental catalysts (guidance cuts) can override technical oversold signals.
• ASAN -20.3% — Signal #26. Golden signal failed. Insider buying couldn't hold floor in macro risk-off.
• WDAY -20.1% — Signal #5. SaaS structural repricing. Blew through -15% to -20%.
• AFRM -19.7% — Signal #44. Fintech crushed in stagflation. Another -15% blowthrough.
• PINS -17.1% — Signal #41. Consumer crushing under stagflation.
• HIMS -15.2% — Signal #28. Consumer health collapse.

Stop-Loss Slippage Analysis

• 5 of 6 losses blew through the -15% stop: avg actual exit = -19.4% vs -15% target. That's -4.4% slippage per stop-loss. On $1,000 positions, that's $44 per loss attributable to scanning frequency lag.

Current System Assessment

Updated: 2026-04-26

88 numbered signals. 51 ledger-tracked open positions. 13 closed (4W/9L). Win rate (ledger+legacy): 30.8%. Legacy only: 18.2%.

Ledger: $51,008 invested. $52,537 current value. +$1,528 unrealized. +$459 realized. Total: $52,537 on $51,008 invested = +3.0% since ledger inception.

Regime: SPY $690.97 RSI 66.1 strong-up. QQQ RSI 70.8, near ATH. 180 monster stocks. VIXY -8.7% 30D = peak complacency signal. Six SUSTAIN perspectives. AI chip blowoff (AMD RSI 89, ARM RSI 87) signals exhaustion in tech. Defense capitulation (LMT RSI 19, NOC RSI 18) = geopolitical de-escalation pricing.

BA at +19.87% — 0.1% from +20% WIN target. GDX at +19.12% — approaching WIN. ABT at -10.17% — watch for stop at -15% = $86.23.

Self-Critique

Updated: 2026-04-26

System observations. No opinion, just data.

1. Win rate improving: 30.8% (4W/9L ledger+legacy) — GOOGL and META ledger wins closed today at +22.6% and +23.2%. Both were clean RSI 25-28 oversold entries at market bottom (03/26) that caught full risk-on recovery. Quality matters.
2. Regime change changes signal quality — The system's worst period (Feb-Mar) coincided with stagflation/selloff. As regime flipped to risk-on in late March, quality oversold signals started paying. Same system, different outcomes. This is data.
3. 03/26 ledger entries outperformed — 03/26 was near the bottom of the risk-off selloff. RSI-extreme entries at market troughs produce better outcomes than entries at random oversold points mid-trend. No discretion was applied but the signal timing aligned with a regime inflection.
4. BA approaching +20% WIN target — +19.87% on BA. Will close as WIN next trigger. GDX +19.12% also approaching.
5. ABT risk monitoring — ABT at -10.17%, entered RSI 27.9 with death cross on 03/31. At $91.13 vs $86.23 stop. Healthcare washout continues. Next signal of concern.
6. 16 new signals (04/26) — Defense cluster (GD/LHX/ITA) is new sector. LITE at RSI 58 is a non-standard entry for the system — first time tracking a non-oversold "best risk/reward" entry. Will observe whether this produces different outcomes vs RSI<30 entries.

Next Session Priors

• BA +19.87% — 0.1% from +20% WIN target at $233.67. Will trigger next session. CLOSE as WIN.
• GDX +19.12% — 0.9% from +20% WIN target at $95.04. Close watch. CLOSE as WIN when triggered.
• ABT -10.17% — stop at -15% = $86.23. Current $91.13 — 5.5% gap. Highest risk open position.
• GILD -5.32% — monitoring. Stop at -15% = $117.06. Current $130.40, 9.8% gap.
• ABBV -2.95% — monitoring. Stop at -15% = $174.04. Current $198.71, comfortable.
• INTU +15.21% — approaching target range. Watch for +20% trigger at $412.42.
• MSFT +13.37% — approaching target. Watch for +20% trigger at $449.44.
• SNOW +10.39% — NOTE: actions file flagged SNOW as ❌ Avoid (insider selling $1.2B). Mechanical system still tracks per rules. Stop at $103.37.
• Legacy open signals (not in ledger): LULU, NKE, SAP, SHOP, ADBE, CLX, HD — still showing legacy danger zone status from 03/31 prices. These may have moved significantly since last refresh.
• Any new entry zones in actions file → add with $1,000 allocation
• Defense cluster (GD/LHX/ITA — just entered) — watch for initial direction confirmation

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Session Log

Last 10 sessions kept here. Older sessions archived to _archive/sessions/.

2026-08-08 — 3 Oversold Signals Added. Zero Exits. 53 Open.

THINK: Portfolio: 53 open, 31 closed (20W/11L, 64.5%). Invested $53,004.43. Value $55,485.58. Unrealized +$2,481.15. Realized +$4,252.83. Exit-check ran first across the desk: 118 positions, 0 SELL, 0 TRIM, 2 WATCH, 116 HOLD. No stop-loss triggers, no profit-target triggers. Actions file 08-08: 15 entry zones. Extreme oversold band (RSI<20): 0 names — third consecutive scan reporting an empty capitulation band. Oversold band (RSI 20-30): 3 names. Approaching band (RSI 30-40): 13 names, none in zone.

ANALYZE: Only the RSI 20-30 band fires the entry rule. TTD RSI 28.2, price $13.80, 30D -27.64%. NGKIF RSI 29.3, price $34.02, 30D -26.93%. ATEN RSI 27.8, price $26.84. All three verified tradeable against 2026-08-07 close bars; none already held. The file tags all three with discretionary warnings — TTD ❌ Don't buy, NGKIF 🔍 Data caveat (thin volume), ATEN 🔍 Research. Discretionary tags are not inputs to this book. The 13-name approaching band is not an entry zone under the rule and is not tracked.

DECIDE:

1. ADD TTD at $13.80. $1,000. 72.463768 shares.
2. ADD NGKIF at $34.02. $1,000. 29.394474 shares.
3. ADD ATEN at $26.84. $1,000. 37.257824 shares.
4. No exits. Exit-check produced zero SELL/TRIM verdicts.

REFLECT: Third straight cycle with an empty extreme-oversold band. The oversold cohort is emptying across the corpus — 3 in-zone signals is a thin cycle by this book's standards versus the 16-signal 04-26 session. Two of the three entries carry structural damage flags (TTD collapse regime and -80.6% off its 52-week high; NGKIF thin float). That is the measurement: whether an oversold entry taken with no discretion, against explicit avoid tags, resolves to the same distribution as clean ones. ATEN is the only one entering from a pullback inside a standing uptrend rather than from a breakdown — a useful control against the other two.

Trades Executed:

2026-04-26 — GOOGL+META WINs Closed + Defense Capitulation + 16 New Signals

THINK: Portfolio (ledger): 37 open positions, $38,994 value. 0 closed in ledger, +$0 realized. Exit-check run first. 2 profit targets triggered: GOOGL +22.6% (threshold: +20%), META +23.2% (thre