1. The Read
Memory closed ten-for-ten green while the tanker complex priced a possible Hormuz reopening, and the S&P 500 finished flat on top of both. SPY ended at -0.0% and the equal-weighted RSP at +0.1%, so the index said nothing; the lanes underneath it said a great deal, in opposite directions.
Macro. Nothing broke in rates or volatility. VIX closed at 14.21, down 4.4%, deep in its calm band; on Monday's rate prints the 10-year was 4.96% and the 2-year 4.76%. The event of the day was geopolitical. CNBC reported that Iran says it can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States eases military pressure, and Bloomberg reported that a US team met Iranian representatives in New York — a rare direct contact in a war now nearly seven months old. Oil took it immediately: USO fell 2.8% on the day and is down 11.0% on the week.
The breadth picture underneath a flat index is the more durable story. Over thirty days the S&P is up 1.0% and the equal-weighted index is down 4.0% — a five-point gap wider than on all but about one percent of sessions since 2006. Technology is the only one of eleven sectors ahead of the index over that window. The market is not rotating between sectors so much as running on one of them.
Micro. Inside that one sector, the move today was memory and the equipment that builds it. Memory closed +4.8% at the median with all ten names up, DRAM +5.0% (4 of 4), NAND +3.5% (5 of 5), and HBM +2.9% with all fifteen names green. The step upstream is the part worth watching: etch equipment +2.9% (6 of 6), wafer-fab test and metrology +2.8% (13 of 13), specialty process chemicals +3.0% (5 of 5). Those are the tool and materials makers that capacity additions pay for, and they have been accelerating for a week before today's session made it visible. Among the names, SanDisk rose 6.8% and Micron 5.0%, both in strong uptrends.
The other side of the tape was everything tied to the war premium. The Iran transmission lane fell 3.8% at the median with one of seven names up, and the losses sat almost entirely in crude tankers: DHT -4.7%, International Seaways -4.7%, Scorpio -4.5%, Frontline -3.8%. The tanker ETF BWET fell 18.2%. Financials were the weakest broad lane, -2.0% with four of twenty-two up, and alternative asset managers closed zero-for-ten.
What the news adds. Three of the day's largest moves have a filed cause. Vicor rose 19.9% after raising third-quarter guidance from roughly 10% sequential growth to more than 20%, on royalties from a new Vertical Power Delivery license. Butterfly Network rose 22.0% on a release reporting record revenue up 39% year over year and a raised full-year guide. Celldex fell 11.6% on 17 times normal volume despite reporting positive Phase 3 results for barzolvolimab in chronic spontaneous urticaria — the pull carries the good news and not the reason it sold, so the cause of the decline is unknown.
Four large moves have no cause on the record. Xanadu Quantum fell 21.6% on 20.9 times normal volume, Viking Therapeutics rose 35.7% on 19.1 times, Maze Therapeutics rose 26.8% and Goosehead fell 11.5%; the news pulls for all four ran and returned only quote pages. That is a gap in the evidence, not an absence of news.
Meta held the entire 11.3% gap it opened on Monday, closing at $736.60, down 0.6%, the day before its Connect keynote.
Watch Wednesday: Meta Connect's keynote at 4:00pm Pacific, where the only number that matters is whether Muse engagement gets restated with a figure; General Mills before the open and Stitch Fix after the close; then Costco and BlackBerry after Thursday's close. On the tape, the test is whether the tankers keep giving back war premium on follow-through from the Hormuz report or recover it on a denial, and whether equal-weight breadth starts closing the five-point gap by the other ten sectors rising rather than technology falling.
Extended analysis
Leaders and laggards
628 advancing 480 declining 62% above the 200-day Color is 7-day price direction, not a buy or sell call.
Leaders
top 7D gainersLaggards
top 7D losers2. What Changed Since the Last Brief
Screen CROSSINGS between the previous brief's close ( ) and this one — a name appears only on the session it crossed, not for as long as it stays there. Every name carries its before → after.
New oversold (18) — LHX RSI 30.1 → 25, GSHD RSI 31.3 → 25.3, BAC RSI 31.1 → 25.4, LTH RSI 32.1 → 25.5, GD RSI 33.6 → 26.3, KRMN RSI 30.1 → 27.4, RTXE RSI 31.7 → 27.5, ALLYE RSI 31.7 → 28, CLDX RSI 42.9 → 28.3, NKTR RSI 38.2 → 28.4, BCE RSI 31.7 → 28.6, JBS RSI 30.4 → 28.6, DFEN RSI 31.2 → 29.3, CW RSI 34.2 → 29.4, CG RSI 31.3 → 29.5, ITA RSI 31.9 → 29.6, +2 more.
New overbought (12) — TWLO RSI 68.4 → 73.8, A RSI 69 → 73.6, DNA RSI 60.8 → 73.3, MRNA RSI 69.6 → 72.2, BHYP RSI 69.8 → 72.1, HYPG RSI 69.7 → 72, HALO RSI 66.5 → 71.9, ADA-USD RSI 68.8 → 71.8, ARM RSI 69.5 → 71.4, 2449.TW RSI 67.1 → 71.3, VKTX RSI 38.5 → 71.2, RNG RSI 67.8 → 70.7.
Golden crossings (3) — GLNK -0.45% → 0.68%, QCOM -0.03% → 0.07%, XRP-USD 0% → 0.79%.
Death crossings (7) — BG 0.19% → -0.01%, CMG 0.17% → -0.03%, CMI 0.4% → -0.07%, DTM 0.01% → -0.33%, EIX 0.59% → -0.01%, ENS 0.11% → -0.21%, MYRG 0.77% → -0.09%.
New monsters (19) — 8046.TW 43.8% → 57.1%, CAKE 39.4% → 43.9%, IQE.L 37.5% → 41.1%, 4958.TW 35.8% → 40.6%, LABU 31.2% → 40.1%, SOXL 25.8% → 34%, IBRX 22.5% → 33.9%, SAIL 26.7% → 33.1%, KYMR 28.5% → 32.8%, AVT 28.8% → 32.1%, ELF 26.6% → 32%, PRLB 29.4% → 31.7%, BBY 29.1% → 31.1%, RGEN 26.9% → 31.1%, HOOD 29.9% → 31%, OUST 24.2% → 30.8%, +3 more.
Newly near a 52-week high (19) — XMTR -6.17% → -0.9% from high, AYA -5.66% → -0.95% from high, BFLY -19% → -1.19% from high, MTD -6.21% → -2.26% from high, ZCSH -5.34% → -2.8% from high, IOVA -7.19% → -3.1% from high, GH -5.25% → -3.46% from high, PRLB -5.72% → -3.81% from high, WST -6.27% → -3.86% from high, IBBQ -5.4% → -3.91% from high, KO -5.81% → -4.2% from high, CGAU -6.4% → -4.28% from high, INCY -6% → -4.28% from high, PFE -5.03% → -4.38% from high, FTRE -6.4% → -4.49% from high, XBI -6.86% → -4.72% from high, +3 more.
Newly in an entry zone (3) — BE $276.53 · $275-$300, LMT $522.34 · $490-$530, WMT $110.12 · $108–111 (base first) → confirm on SMA200 reclaim $116.71.
3. Focus List
4. Sector Scorecard
DRAM — +5.0%, four of four; the rotation map's leading lane on a thirty-day basis. NAND flash — +3.5%, five of five. HBM — +2.9%, fifteen of fifteen; the broadest unanimous lane on the tape. Power supplies and power shelves — +4.1%, six of six, led by Vicor's guidance raise. Etch equipment — +2.9%, six of six; the semiconductor-equipment step upstream. Wafer-fab test and metrology — +2.8%, thirteen of thirteen. Specialty process chemicals — +3.0%, five of five. Iran war transmission — -3.8%, one of seven; the tankers carried the whole decline. Defence contractors — -1.7%, three of twelve. Alternative asset managers — -1.5%, zero of ten.
ETF tape · 42 funds
The desk's curated ETF read — one fund per lane it tracks, not every fund on the watchlists — grouped by what the fund is exposed to, and where each closed on the issue date. The big number and the tile's shade are that session's move (1D); 7D and 30D are the trailing windows behind it, and RSI is the 14-day reading (above 70 is stretched, below 30 washed out). Shades near flat stay gray — a ±0.25% day is not a color.
Index & international · 9 funds
Tech, AI & cloud · 9 funds
Health & biotech · 3 funds
Commodities, energy & metals · 7 funds
Rates, credit, dollar & vol · 6 funds
Crypto · 2 funds
Income & real assets · 3 funds
The desk's assessments cover 3 of 122 lanes. 10 authored assessments matched no lane (dram, nand flash, hbm, power supplies and power shelves, etch equipment, wafer-fab test and metrology, specialty process chemicals, iran war transmission, defence contractors, alternative asset managers) — kept in the chapter text above.
5. The Wild & Whacky
A tanker ETF lost 18.2% in a session in which oil fell 2.8%. Celldex met its Phase 3 primary endpoint and every key secondary and fell 11.6%. Xanadu Quantum traded almost twenty-one times its normal volume on a 21.6% decline and left no explanation anywhere in the news pull. And the S&P 500 closed at -0.0% on a day twenty-eight separate lanes closed at least ninety percent green.
6. What I'd Tell a Friend
The index is hiding the market. Over the past month it is up because one sector is up; the average stock is down 4%. Today that one sector's strongest corner was memory and the equipment that makes it, which is where the momentum is, but a leadership block this narrow is also a single point of failure. The other thing moving is oil: a credible-sounding Hormuz headline took tankers down 4-5% in a day, so anything priced for a long war is now priced for a headline. Tomorrow's one thing to watch is Meta's keynote — the stock already paid for good news, and it needs a number, not a demo.
7. The Front Page
Monster Watch · 179 of 1124 tracked names
Sector Rotation Radar · 122 themes
Flow means 30-day relative strength versus SPY, not dollars moving: Inflow beat SPY by more than 2 points, Outflow trailed by more than 2, and Neutral stayed inside that band.
reference_jasonl_capital_kopn_check.md). Kopin Corporation, $3.97 microcap. Claimed: MicroLED… IBB Outflow -1.8% 30D Biotechnology cohort spanning large-cap therapeutics, rare disease, gene editing, diagnostics, life-science tools, and CROs. Canadian OG Outflow -1.9% 30D Canadian oil & gas — ATH (Athabasca), TVE (Tamarack Valley), WCP (Whitecap), BTE (Baytex), GTE (Gran Tierra). Theo Loveday picks. EWC (Canada ETF) and XLE (Energy sector) as benchmarks. NNRG (Ninepoint Energy Fund, Eric… Healthcare Outflow -1.9% 30D Healthcare/Pharma/Medical Devices - Medical devices (SYK, ISRG, MDT, DXCM, ABT), pharma (PFE, MRK, LLY, GILD, AMGN, BIIB, VRTX, MRNA), healthcare services (JNJ, UNH, CVS), lab/diagnostics (TMO), life sciences software… Healthcare Outflow -1.9% 30D Healthcare sector scan - Medical devices (SYK, ISRG, MDT, DXCM, ABT), pharma (PFE, MRK, LLY, GILD, AMGN, BIIB, VRTX, MRNA), healthcare services (JNJ, UNH, CVS, GRDN specialty pharmacy), lab/diagnostics (TMO), life… Thebuildout Semiconductor Fab Construction Engineering Outflow -1.9% 30D TheBuildout · Semiconductor Fab Construction & Engineering — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/semiconductor-fab-construction-engineering), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist.… WFE Test Metrology Outflow -1.9% 30D Semiconductor wafer-fab equipment, process control, metrology, test, packaging, and materials suppliers. Macro Commodities Outflow -2.0% 30D Macro & commodities - oil (USO/BNO), natgas (UNG), gold (GLD/GDX/GDXJ/GDRZF), silver (SLV/SIL), copper (COPX), agriculture (DBA/WEAT/CORN/SOYB/AGRO), specialty chemicals (CE), uranium (URA), dollar (UUP), euro (FXE),… Thebuildout Grid Infrastructure Transmission Outflow -2.3% 30D TheBuildout · Grid Infrastructure & Transmission — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/grid-infrastructure-transmission), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Electricity Outflow -2.4% 30D The electricity layer of the AI buildout, consolidated: generation, grid and transmission, transformers, distribution and busways, turbines, nuclear, fuel cells, UPS and storage, power semiconductors and PSUs. Created… Robotics Outflow -2.7% 30D Robotics & physical-AI across the stack — seeded 2026-06-27 from @mkfilko + @MMatters22596 robotics baskets (live rotation theme). Layers: brain/compute (NVDA Isaac/GR00T, BB/QNX OS), vision (CGNX, AMBA), lidar/sensors… Thebuildout Eda Software Outflow -3.0% 30D TheBuildout · EDA Software — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/eda-software), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the free-tier visible head: 6… Thebuildout Fuel Cells Alternative Dc Power Outflow -3.3% 30D TheBuildout · Fuel Cells & Alternative DC Power — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/fuel-cells-alternative-dc-power), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… Biotech Outflow -3.4% 30D Biotech scan - broader universe for opportunity discovery. ETFs (XBI, IBB, IBBQ), Large cap pharma (ABBV, GILD, AMGN, LLY, VRTX, REGN), GLP-1 (NVO, LLY), mRNA (BNTX, MRNA), gene editing (CRSP, BEAM, EDIT, NTLA),… Space Outflow -3.5% 30D Space plays — expanded 2026-05-27 for SpaceX IPO catalyst (debut 2026-06-12 NASDAQ:SPCX, $1.75T-$2T target, $40-80B raise, largest IPO ever). Originally only RKLB / ARKX / GSAT (3 names). Launch / rockets: RKLB… Financials Outflow -3.7% 30D Financials - Banks/Investment firms (JPM, BAC, GS, MS, BLK), brokers (SCHW, HOOD), insurance (AMP, PGR, MET, BDN), fintech (FIS, FISV), card-network (COF — absorbed Discover/DFS via 2025 acquisition), exchanges (CME),… Thebuildout Deposition Equipment Outflow -3.7% 30D TheBuildout · Deposition Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/deposition-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the free-tier… Thebuildout Metrology Inspection Outflow -3.8% 30D TheBuildout · Metrology & Inspection — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/metrology-inspection), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… Thebuildout Nuclear Energy Data Centers Outflow -4.0% 30D TheBuildout · Nuclear Energy for Data Centers — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/nuclear-energy-data-centers), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR… China Tech Outflow -4.3% 30D Chinese internet and platform leaders with broad mainland, Hong Kong, and technology ETF exposure. Biotech Outflow -4.5% 30D Biotech - pharma innovation (LLY), lab tools (TMO), mRNA (MRNA), gene editing (CRSP, NTLA, VRTX), immunotherapy (IBRX) Thebuildout Renewable Energy Hyperscaler Ppas Outflow -4.7% 30D TheBuildout · Renewable Energy Developers (Hyperscaler PPAs) — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/renewable-energy-hyperscaler-ppas), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice… Thebuildout Etch Equipment Outflow -4.7% 30D TheBuildout · Etch Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/etch-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the free-tier visible… Geopolitical Outflow -4.7% 30D Geopolitical risk watchlist - defense contractors (LMT/RTX/NOC/GD/LHX/BA), oil producers (XOM/CVX/OXY/COP/SLB/HAL/DVN/EOG — XOM absorbed PXD/Pioneer via 2024 acquisition), energy ETFs (USO/UNG/XLE/OIH/XOP), safe havens… Defensive Outflow -5.2% 30D Defensive/Value - ETFs (XLP consumer staples, XLU utilities). Telecom (T, VZ), consumer staples (WMT, MCD, COST, SBUX, TGT), food/protein (HRL, TSN, PPC), industrial (ECL), home improvement (HD, LOW). Rotation… Thebuildout Semiconductor Bonding Interconnect Materials Outflow -5.5% 30D TheBuildout · Semiconductor Bonding & Interconnect Materials — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/semiconductor-bonding-interconnect-materials), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged… Thebuildout Advanced Packaging Equipment Outflow -5.5% 30D TheBuildout · Advanced Packaging Equipment — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/advanced-packaging-equipment), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines… Thebuildout Cmp Slurries Consumables Outflow -5.6% 30D TheBuildout · CMP Slurries & Consumables — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/cmp-slurries-consumables), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… Consumer Staples Outflow -5.7% 30D Consumer staples - Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Colgate, Clorox, Mondelez, General Mills. Recession-proof dividend plays. BALL = Ball Corp aluminum packaging (KO/PEP customer supply-chain… Thebuildout Specialty Electronic Gases Outflow -6.2% 30D TheBuildout · Specialty & Electronic Gases — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/specialty-electronic-gases), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of… Thebuildout Specialty Gases Process Chemicals Outflow -6.2% 30D TheBuildout · Specialty Gases & Process Chemicals — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/specialty-gases-process-chemicals), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice =… EV Clean Energy Outflow -6.9% 30D EV makers + clean energy + related ETFs. Solar tracking (NXT Nextracker), industrial energy storage/batteries (ENS EnerSys). Lithium pure-plays added 2026-05-10 from… Chemicals Outflow -7.3% 30D Chemicals & specialty materials — industrial cycle, energy input costs, diversified chemical producers. Defense Contractors Outflow -7.3% 30D Defense contractors - ETFs (ITA aerospace/defense, PPA aerospace/defense). Lockheed Martin, RTX (Raytheon), Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, L3Harris, Boeing. Trace Lng Liquefaction Shipping And Regasification Outflow -7.4% 30D LNG supply-chain bottlenecks across liquefaction, shipping, and regasification. Research trace from 2026-04-12 with 2 unanimous and 2 strong-convergence findings. Copper Outflow -7.5% 30D Copper miners and broad copper funds tracking electrification, grid, construction, and data-center demand. Quantum Computing Outflow -7.7% 30D Quantum-compute pure-plays. Gate/trapped-ion (IONQ), superconducting (RGTI/Rigetti), annealing (QBTS/D-Wave), photonic (QUBT/Quantum Computing Inc, XNDU/Xanadu — de-SPAC 2026-03), cold-atom/Rydberg (INFQ/Infleqtion —… Peptide Economy Outflow -8.7% 30D Peptide / GLP-1 economy — principals + next-gen pipeline + consumer/distribution layer. Surfaced 2026-05-05 as a coverage gap: no focused lens existed despite GLP-1s being the largest pharma run of the past 18 months.… Drone Defense Outflow -8.9% 30D Drone & counter-drone defense — offense (AVAV AeroVironment, AVEX AEVEX Corp — newly-public April 2026 full-stack drone + AI ISR, KTOS Kratos, RCAT Red Cat — small-cap manufacturer), counter-drone (EOPSF Electro Optic… Retail Outflow -9.0% 30D Retail/Consumer - ETFs (XRT retail). Home Improvement (HD, LOW), E-commerce (SHOP), Athletic/Apparel (AS, LULU, NKE, DECK, CROX, ANF), Food/Beverage (SBUX, MCD, CMG, DPZ, YUM), General Retail (COST, WMT, TGT, TJX) Nuclear Fuel Cycle Outflow -9.1% 30D Nuclear fuel cycle — AI-DRIVEN nuclear-demand thesis (sibling to ai-power-bottleneck, NOT a rotation away from AI; the mechanism is COMPLEMENTARY — hyperscaler data-center power demand pulls through the entire nuclear… Thebuildout Lithium Battery Metals Outflow -9.6% 30D TheBuildout · Lithium & Battery Metals — their curated supply-chain list (https://thebuildout.ai/lists/lithium-battery-metals), imported 2026-08-19 as a brand-tagged watchlist. Our slice = US-listed/ADR lines of the… Lazarus Outflow -10.4% 30D Fallen-quality WATCH list (NOT buys): former leaders down 40-80% held in quarantine until they prove a trend reversal — the 'Lazarus signal' (pop -> flag -> breakout / life pouring in). Entry only on confirmation, never… Livestock Disease Outflow -10.5% 30D Livestock-disease / beef supply-shock — single consolidated watchlist + alert hub for the New World Screwworm → cattle-supply thesis (first US case 2026-06-03; US herd 75-yr low; record beef). ROLES: (A) Animal-health… Alt Managers Outflow -10.8% 30D Publicly-traded alternative asset managers — fee-related-earnings cohort plus the Brookfield parent. Brookfield axis: BAM (Brookfield Asset Management — fee-light spinout, ~$540B FBE AUM, FRE-growth thesis), BN… Consumer Outflow -11.4% 30D Consumer brands - ETFs (XLY consumer discretionary). Athleisure (AS, LULU, NKE, DECK, CROX), food/beverage (SBUX, CMG, DPZ), health/wellness (HIMS), payments (PYPL, XYZ — Block Inc, ticker renamed from SQ in 2025),… Cultural Thesis Outflow -11.8% 30D Cultural thesis watchlist — stocks driven by consumer behavior shifts, social arbitrage signals, and cultural cascades. HIMS = telehealth / GLP-1 cultural arbitrage (replaced BRBR as the protein-economy vehicle… Travel Leisure Outflow -12.6% 30D Travel & leisure — war-ends playbook beneficiary. Oil drop → travel cost reduction, pent-up demand, cruise recovery. 8. Key Signals
Recorded signals · 57
9. Paper Trade Report Card
yolo $111,296 +11.3% 10 open · updated 2026-09-22
claude trader $110,604 +10.6% 18 open · updated 2026-09-22
dip buyer $100,000 0.0% 0 open · updated n/a
momentum trader $97,725 -2.3% 2 open · updated 2026-09-22
bench signals $51,868 n/a 52 open · updated 2026-09-22
10. Active Perspectives
AI power: rack and chip conversion active high latest 2026-09-06
AI optics: bandwidth becomes supplier earnings active high latest 2026-09-06
AI memory: pricing discipline through the supply ramp active high latest 2026-09-06
Nearline storage: density and supplier discipline active high latest 2026-09-06
Nuclear fuel: contracting reaches enrichment and supply monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
Biotech funding: conversion into tools and CRO orders monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
Energy disruption: physical flows and exporter economics monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
Drone defense: contracts become profitable deliveries monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
AI spending: the supplier earnings reversal case monitoring medium latest 2026-09-06
AI power: generation and grid equipment active high latest 2026-09-06
Energy shock to hardship: the Saudi phase of the Iran war active high latest n/a
Today's Actions · 145 NFLX $72.16 · ADBE $238.25 · BA $197.72
exit · 43
NFLXE $72.16 breaking down — -7.4% this week, 42.2% off its 52-week high and still falling; down 41.2% over the past year and 15.2% below its 200-day — the long trend agrees
ADBE $238.25 breaking down — -7.6% this week, 35.4% off its 52-week high and still falling; down 34.6% over the past year and 9.8% below its 200-day — the long trend agrees
BA $197.72 breaking down — -5.7% this week, 22.3% off its 52-week high and still falling; down 6.8% over the past year and 10.6% below its 200-day — the long trend agrees
AAUC tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
AEIS tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
AG tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
ALM tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
ARES tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
ASHR tape broken — Confirmed tape transition basing → downtrend.
BELFA tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
BIPC tape broken — Confirmed tape transition basing → downtrend.
BKD tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
BN tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
BTU tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
CCJ tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend. trend-hold
CRS tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
DNN tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
DOW tape broken — Confirmed tape transition basing → downtrend.
DYN tape broken — Confirmed tape transition uptrend → downtrend.
EIX tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
ENVA tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
ESI tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
GSHD tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
HD tape broken — Confirmed tape transition basing → downtrend.
HLIT tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
HYG tape broken — Confirmed tape transition basing → downtrend.
ICHR tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
ITRI tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
KRC tape broken — Confirmed tape transition basing → downtrend.
NVO tape broken — Confirmed tape transition basing → downtrend.
OPTX tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
PEG tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
Q tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
RIVN tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
STE tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
TJX tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
TPG tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
TTMI tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
URA tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
VECO tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
VIAV tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
VKTX tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → downtrend.
VRT tape broken — Confirmed tape transition pullback → collapse.
entry · 102
QQQ breaking out at a fresh 52-week high after a +6.1% week · a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
AMD breaking out at a fresh 52-week high after a +23.7% week
MRNA breaking out 2.5% off its 52-week high after a +27.0% week — a +199% three-month run, not a one-week pop
TSLA coming into play — 24.0% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+6.3% this week)
GLD coming into play — 21.5% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+1.5% this week)
WMT $108–111 coming into play — 18.5% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+1.9% this week) · in its $108–111 buy zone
ITA $210–220 in its $210–220 buy zone
LMT $490–530 in its $490–530 buy zone
VZ $44–48 in its $44–48 buy zone
AMGN $410.24 basing after run — new this week
AVGO $364.54 vwap reclaim — new this week
BEAM $25.93 bottom pop — new this week
BNTX $100.87 vwap reclaim — new this week
CRAK $64.03 basing after run — new this week
CRCL $94.59 vwap reclaim — new this week
DNA $9.37 vwap reclaim — new this week
FCX $74.35 basing after run — new this week
FN $403.80 bottom pop — new this week
IFNNY $69.13 bottom pop — new this week
LASR $41.20 bottom pop — new this week
MOD $195.96 bottom pop — new this week
KRE watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
SPY watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · a real base is forming — watch for the breakout trend-hold
AES a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
AIQ a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
ARKX a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
AVAL a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
AVUV a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
BALL a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
BDN a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
BJAN a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
BOCT a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
BUZZ a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
COST a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
DIVO a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
DUK a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
ELPC a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
FTEC a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
GSAT a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
IWM a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
IWO a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
JEPI a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
KRYS a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
LGND a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
LLY a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
MJ a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
MSGS a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
NEE a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
NTES a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
OGN a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
PG a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
POCT a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
QQQM a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
QUAL a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
RSP a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
SCHB a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
SCHG a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
SCHX a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
SLP a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
TDY a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
UJAN a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
UOCT a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
USA a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
UUP a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
VGT a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
VOO a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
VTI a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
VTV a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
VUG a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
VYM a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
WST a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
XLK a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
XLY a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
XRT a real base is forming — watch for the breakout
LRCX $312.76 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime); trigger at $312.76
MXL $91 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime); trigger at $91 trend-hold
PANW watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime) trend-hold
UMAC watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime)
AAPL no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, +2.5% this week, 1.6% off its 52-week high
AMZN no setup today — under its 50-day but still above its 200-day, +2.6% this week, 11.2% off its 52-week high
ARGX no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, -1.6% this week, 10.2% off its 52-week high
ARM no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, +37.8% this week, 26.4% off its 52-week high
ARQQ no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, +26.1% this week, 62.8% off its 52-week high
GOOGL no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, +1.8% this week, 14.0% off its 52-week high
HQ no setup today — no trend read yet (under a year of price history), +19.2% this week, 65.0% off its 52-week high
ILMN no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, +11.3% this week, 1.0% off its 52-week high
INFQ no setup today — recovering, back above its 50- and 200-day, +11.0% this week, 48.9% off its 52-week high
IONQ no setup today — above its 50-day but not its 200-day, +10.0% this week, 51.9% off its 52-week high
LAES no setup today — under both averages, 50-day below the 200, +2.2% this week, 73.0% off its 52-week high
MSFT no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, +0.2% this week, 10.1% off its 52-week high trend-hold
MU no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, +18.2% this week, 12.7% off its 52-week high
NET no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, +7.9% this week, 1.1% off its 52-week high trend-hold
NTR no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, -4.2% this week, 11.6% off its 52-week high
NVDA no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, +7.9% this week, 3.2% off its 52-week high
OUST no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, +22.8% this week, 36.9% off its 52-week high
PL no setup today — under both averages, 50-day below the 200, +5.6% this week, 67.3% off its 52-week high
QBTS no setup today — under both averages, 50-day below the 200, +7.0% this week, 62.4% off its 52-week high
QUBT no setup today — above its 50-day but not its 200-day, +15.8% this week, 64.9% off its 52-week high
RGTI no setup today — above its 50-day but not its 200-day, +9.5% this week, 71.6% off its 52-week high
SHOP no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, +13.8% this week, 18.9% off its 52-week high
SNDK no setup today — in trend, above its 50- and 200-day, +23.3% this week, 19.9% off its 52-week high
XNDU no setup today — under both averages, 50-day below the 200, -25.9% this week, 86.4% off its 52-week high
All Scans 2 complete · 29 without a dated artifact
market pulse missing
ai scan missing
ai infrastructure missing
biotech scan missing
nvda ecosystem missing
defensive scan missing
healthcare scan missing
consumer scan missing
retail scan missing
cloud etfs missing
cybersec missing
ev clean energy missing
etf universe missing
insider scan missing
bargain bin missing
tech insider buys missing
crypto scan missing
macro commodities missing
defense contractors missing
geopolitical risk missing
optical supply chain missing
drone defense missing
supply chain traces missing
wfe test metrology missing
food security missing
cultural thesis missing
airlines missing
chemicals missing
travel leisure missing
The desk's frozen record The machine-built sections as this issue recorded them — the tape, calls, and wires that were true on this date (desk plumbing and file-path lines removed for reading).
Regime State
- State counts: collapse: 133, pullback: 419, uptrend: 252, downtrend: 135.
- Latest transition batch: 2026-09-22 vs 2026-09-21; 41 confirmed state-to-state flips, 0 entries, 0 exits.
- Confirmed flips: $AAOI collapse -> pullback; $ANF uptrend -> pullback; $ARMK uptrend -> basing; $ASHR basing -> downtrend; $ASX pullback -> uptrend; $ATZ.TO collapse -> pullback.
Rates & Macro
Source: FRED last-good series under macro; values are aligned to the desk date without interpolation.
| Series | Observation | Tape alignment | Receipt |
|---|---|---|---|
2Y Treasury (DGS2) |
4.76% as of 2026-09-21 | carried | fresh |
10Y Treasury (DGS10) |
4.96% as of 2026-09-21 | carried | fresh |
10Y minus 2Y curve (T10Y2Y) |
0.25% as of 2026-09-22 | direct | fresh |
Effective fed funds (DFF) |
3.88% as of 2026-09-21 | carried | fresh |
10Y real yield (DFII10) |
2.62% as of 2026-09-21 | carried | fresh |
CPI (all urban consumers) (CPIAUCSL) |
334.1 as of 2026-08-01 | carried | fresh |
US high-yield option-adjusted spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) |
2.66% as of 2026-09-21 | carried | fresh |
Broad US dollar index (DTWEXBGS) |
119.5 as of 2026-09-18 | carried | fresh |
VIX close (VIXCLS) |
14.87 as of 2026-09-21 | carried | fresh |
Chicago Fed financial conditions (NFCI) |
-0.56 as of 2026-09-11 | carried | fresh |
Cross-sector Rotation
- Money rotating INTO Thebuildout Dram Memory (RS +13.4, 50% strong-up, today +4.2%), Thebuildout High Speed Pcbs Server Networking (RS +13.2, 100% strong-up, today +2.8%), Cybersec (RS +12.5, 100% strong-up, today +0.4%) — OUT OF Travel Leisure (RS -14.4), Lazarus (RS -13.3), Alt Managers (RS -12.9). Benchmark SPY +1.0% 30d. ⚡ EMERGING (turning up before the trailing board): Thebuildout Advanced Packaging Equipment (accel +13.2, 50% up), WFE Test Metrology (accel +13.1, 62% up), Optical Supply Chain (accel +13.1, 64% up), Thebuildout Lithography Equipment (accel +12.0, 67% up), Thebuildout Package Substrate Interposer Ecosystem (accel +11.5, 67% up). ◔ EARLY TURN (accelerating, breadth unconfirmed — probe, not a call): Thebuildout Etch Equipment (accel +12.9, 33% up, led by ENTG/LRCX/MKSI), Thebuildout Deposition Equipment (accel +12.4, 33% up, led by LRCX/AMAT/KLAC), Thebuildout Cmp Slurries Consumables (accel +11.4, 25% up, led by ENTG/AMAT/Q), Thebuildout Semiconductor Bonding Interconnect Materials (accel +9.7, 40% up, led by MKSI/GLW/Q), AI Power (accel +8.9, 44% up, led by VICR/RIOT/KEEL). TURNING LAGGARDS (30d RS still negative; 7d RS now positive): Quantum Computing (30d -8.8, 7d +6.1, divergence +14.8), Thebuildout Advanced Packaging Equipment (30d -4.5, 7d +10.2, divergence +14.7), Thebuildout Etch Equipment (30d -3.5, 7d +10.2, divergence +13.7), Thebuildout Cmp Slurries Consumables (30d -4.6, 7d +8.5, divergence +13.0), Cultural Thesis (30d -12.3, 7d +0.5, divergence +12.8), Thebuildout Deposition Equipment (30d -2.0, 7d +10.1, divergence +12.0), Thebuildout Metrology Inspection (30d -2.9, 7d +8.3, divergence +11.2), Thebuildout Semiconductor Bonding Interconnect Materials (30d -4.1, 7d +6.8, divergence +11.0), Thebuildout Eda Software (30d -1.9, 7d +8.7, divergence +10.6), Copper (30d -5.6, 7d +5.0, divergence +10.6), Nuclear Fuel Cycle (30d -8.8, 7d +1.6, divergence +10.4), Peptide Economy (30d -6.8, 7d +2.2, divergence +9.0), EV Clean Energy (30d -7.4, 7d +0.3, divergence +7.7), Space (30d -1.8, 7d +5.7, divergence +7.5), IBB (30d -1.7, 7d +5.8, divergence +7.5), Thebuildout Ups Energy Storage Data Centers (30d -0.9, 7d +5.9, divergence +6.8), Thebuildout Transformers Grid Interconnect (30d -1.1, 7d +5.7, divergence +6.8), Thebuildout Fuel Cells Alternative Dc Power (30d -4.0, 7d +2.8, divergence +6.7), Spacex S1 Supply Chain (30d -1.7, 7d +4.9, divergence +6.6), Thebuildout Specialty Gases Process Chemicals (30d -5.7, 7d +0.8, divergence +6.5), Grid Buildout (30d -2.1, 7d +3.7, divergence +5.8), AI Infrastructure (30d -1.8, 7d +3.8, divergence +5.7), Thebuildout Natural Gas Turbines Dc Power (30d -2.0, 7d +3.6, divergence +5.6), Biotech (30d -3.3, 7d +2.2, divergence +5.5), Robotics (30d -2.4, 7d +3.1, divergence +5.4), Thebuildout Industrial Robotics Automation (30d -2.9, 7d +2.4, divergence +5.3), China Tech (30d -4.7, 7d +0.4, divergence +5.1), Biotech (30d -2.3, 7d +2.3, divergence +4.5), Electricity (30d -3.4, 7d +1.0, divergence +4.4), Thebuildout Semiconductor Fab Construction Engineering (30d -3.2, 7d +0.8, divergence +4.1). Fading leaders: Trace Iran War Second And Third Order Effects (accel -4.5, today -3.8%).
- ⚡ Front-run (emerging, turning up before the trailing board): Thebuildout Advanced Packaging Equipment (accel +13.2, 50% up); WFE Test Metrology (accel +13.1, 62% up); Optical Supply Chain (accel +13.1, 64% up); Thebuildout Lithography Equipment (accel +12.0, 67% up); Thebuildout Package Substrate Interposer Ecosystem (accel +11.5, 67% up).
- ↗ Turning laggards (30d RS still negative; 7d RS now positive): quantum-computing (30d -8.8, 7d +6.1, divergence +14.8); thebuildout-advanced-packaging-equipment (30d -4.5, 7d +10.2, divergence +14.7); thebuildout-etch-equipment (30d -3.5, 7d +10.2, divergence +13.7); thebuildout-cmp-slurries-consumables (30d -4.6, 7d +8.5, divergence +13.0); cultural-thesis (30d -12.3, 7d +0.5, divergence +12.8); thebuildout-deposition-equipment (30d -2.0, 7d +10.1, divergence +12.0); thebuildout-metrology-inspection (30d -2.9, 7d +8.3, divergence +11.2); thebuildout-semiconductor-bonding-interconnect-materials (30d -4.1, 7d +6.8, divergence +11.0); thebuildout-eda-software (30d -1.9, 7d +8.7, divergence +10.6); copper (30d -5.6, 7d +5.0, divergence +10.6); nuclear-fuel-cycle (30d -8.8, 7d +1.6, divergence +10.4); peptide-economy (30d -6.8, 7d +2.2, divergence +9.0); ev-clean-energy (30d -7.4, 7d +0.3, divergence +7.7); space (30d -1.8, 7d +5.7, divergence +7.5); ibb (30d -1.7, 7d +5.8, divergence +7.5); thebuildout-ups-energy-storage-data-centers (30d -0.9, 7d +5.9, divergence +6.8); thebuildout-transformers-grid-interconnect (30d -1.1, 7d +5.7, divergence +6.8); thebuildout-fuel-cells-alternative-dc-power (30d -4.0, 7d +2.8, divergence +6.7); spacex-s1-supply-chain (30d -1.7, 7d +4.9, divergence +6.6); thebuildout-specialty-gases-process-chemicals (30d -5.7, 7d +0.8, divergence +6.5); grid-buildout (30d -2.1, 7d +3.7, divergence +5.8); ai-infrastructure (30d -1.8, 7d +3.8, divergence +5.7); thebuildout-natural-gas-turbines-dc-power (30d -2.0, 7d +3.6, divergence +5.6); biotech-scan (30d -3.3, 7d +2.2, divergence +5.5); robotics (30d -2.4, 7d +3.1, divergence +5.4); thebuildout-industrial-robotics-automation (30d -2.9, 7d +2.4, divergence +5.3); china-tech (30d -4.7, 7d +0.4, divergence +5.1); biotech (30d -2.3, 7d +2.3, divergence +4.5); electricity (30d -3.4, 7d +1.0, divergence +4.4); thebuildout-semiconductor-fab-construction-engineering (30d -3.2, 7d +0.8, divergence +4.1).
- Leadership shifts since last run: Thebuildout Dram Memory (new-leader); Crypto (lost-leadership); Alt Managers (new-laggard); Lazarus (new-laggard); Consumer (left-laggards); Cultural Thesis (left-laggards).
Lane Tape
- Reference: SPY -0.0%, RSP +0.1%. 122 lanes with 3+ settled names; 28 closed at least 90% up, 2 at least 90% down.
| Lane | Med 1D | Up | 30d phase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thebuildout Dram Memory | +5.0% | 4/4 | leading (RS +13.4) |
| Memory | +4.8% | 10/10 | leading (RS +9.0) |
| Thebuildout Semiconductor Test Burn In Equipment | +4.5% | 3/3 | leading (RS +8.9) |
| Thebuildout Power Supplies Psu Power Shelves | +4.1% | 6/6 | leading (RS +3.3) |
| Nearline Storage | +3.7% | 3/3 | leading (RS +7.2) |
| Thebuildout Nand Flash Memory | +3.5% | 5/5 | leading (RS +12.4) |
| Copper | +3.2% | 7/7 | emerging (RS -5.6) |
| Thebuildout Specialty Electronic Gases | +3.0% | 3/3 | neutral (RS -5.7) |
| … 106 more | |||
| Faang | -1.1% | 1/5 | neutral (RS +0.9) |
| Canadian OG | -1.1% | 2/7 | lagging (RS -3.6) |
| Geopolitical | -1.3% | 6/28 | lagging (RS -5.9) |
| Government Compute | -1.4% | 1/6 | neutral (RS -1.9) |
| Alt Managers | -1.5% | 0/10 | neutral (RS -12.9) |
| Defense Contractors | -1.7% | 3/12 | neutral (RS -9.2) |
| Financials | -2.0% | 4/22 | lagging (RS -6.8) |
| Trace Iran War Second And Third Order Effects | -3.8% | 1/7 | fading (RS +3.9) |
What moved together
- Memory +4.8% median, 10 of 10 up, 4.9 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Thebuildout Power Supplies Psu Power Shelves +4.1% median, 6 of 6 up, 4.1 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Thebuildout Nand Flash Memory +3.5% median, 5 of 5 up, 3.5 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Copper +3.2% median, 7 of 7 up, 3.2 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Thebuildout Specialty Gases Process Chemicals +3.0% median, 5 of 5 up, 3.0 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Thebuildout Etch Equipment +2.9% median, 6 of 6 up, 2.9 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Thebuildout HBM Memory +2.9% median, 15 of 15 up, 2.9 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- WFE Test Metrology +2.8% median, 13 of 13 up, 2.9 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- CPU Shortage Supply Chain +2.8% median, 8 of 8 up, 2.8 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
- Thebuildout Semiconductor Ip Licensors +2.8% median, 7 of 7 up, 2.8 points above the S&P 500 — the lane moved as one.
Movers and their cohorts
- $VKTX +35.7% on 19.1× volume — attribution: contrary; Peptide Economy +2.2% (9/10), Biotech Capital Cycle +2.0% (26/37)
- $MAZE +26.8% on 6.8× volume — attribution: blindside; no lane on file
- $BFLY +22.0% on 4.4× volume — attribution: watched; no lane on file
- $XNDU -21.6% on 20.9× volume — attribution: watched; Quantum Computing -0.3% (5/13), Focus +0.6% (15/25)
- $VICR +19.9% on 2.5× volume — attribution: expected; Thebuildout Power Supplies Psu Power Shelves +4.1% (6/6), Thebuildout Data Center Power Semiconductors +2.6% (11/12), AI Power +1.3% (37/54), Electricity +0.2% (29/55)
- $BWET -18.2% — attribution: watched; War Sensitivity +0.4% (13/24)
- $CLDX -11.6% on 17.2× volume — attribution: watched; no lane on file
- $GSHD -11.5% on 4.8× volume — attribution: expected; no lane on file
- $HYMC +10.5% — attribution: blindside; no lane on file
- $NKTR -8.8% on 4.0× volume — attribution: watched; IBB lane +2.0% (30/37), Biotech +1.8% (34/39)
- $ONON +7.6% on 5.0× volume — attribution: unavailable; Retail +0.7% (16/22)
- $RCL -6.1% on 4.2× volume — attribution: unavailable; Travel Leisure -0.1% (3/9)
Mover bar: a 1D move of 10%+, or 3× volume with a 1D move of 5%+; price $1+, $50M+ dollar volume; daily-reset leveraged and synthetic-income wrappers excluded.
Volatility Gate
- VIX 14.21 (CALM) · 1d -4.4%. 😴 VIX CALM — 14.21 (<16). Complacent; no fear discount available.
- No fire-sale trigger (rule: >=30% one-day spike is the trigger; the level alone is context).
- Credit tape (7d): HYG +0.4% · LQD +0.8% · IEF +0.4% — the flush-vs-break discriminator: orderly credit means the selling is positioning, not a credit event.
Crowd Odds
- Bitcoin reaches $80,000 by December 31, 2026 (crypto-geopolitics reopen trigger level) — RESOLVED YES (Polymarket, settled 2026-08-24)
- Fed hikes 25bps at the September 2026 meeting (Polymarket cross-check) — RESOLVED YES (Polymarket, settled 2026-09-16)
- Fed holds (0bps) at the September 16, 2026 meeting — RESOLVED NO (Kalshi, settled 2026-09-16)
- Government shutdown by October 1, 2026 (Polymarket cross-check) — 1% (Polymarket, as of 09-22; wk +0pt)
- US government shut down on Oct 1, 2026 — 1% (Kalshi, as of 09-22; wk +0pt)
- NVIDIA is the largest company by market cap on December 31, 2026 — 78% (Polymarket, as of 09-22; wk +9pt)
- US recession by end of 2026 (Polymarket cross-check) — 9% (Polymarket, as of 09-22; wk -8pt)
- NBER-dated US recession in 2026 — 5% (Kalshi, as of 09-22; wk -4pt)
The Prints
- $ABVX — Reported EPS $-1.69 versus analyst consensus of $-0.86 (-97.0%).
Upcoming Prints (next 72h)
Tripwires
- Tripwires: no new trips since the 2026-09-22 duty pass.
Desk Calls
| Ticker | Stance | Entry | Review-by | 30d vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $DBA | watch | DBA back over its 50-day with RSI above 50 (Sept 18 close $28.15, RSI 41.4, 0.3%… | 2026-10-14 | pending |
| $MSTR | watch | Not this print. Strategy would have to hold $137.04 (its 200-day) and $134.95 (its… | 2026-10-02 | pending |
| $SNDK | watch | A new flag and held base, then a close strictly above $1740.00. Friday’s equal close… | 2026-09-30 | pending |
| $AMAT | watch | WAIT: close above $489.46 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current orders,… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $CEG | watch (invalidation?) | WAIT: close above $299.73 (Sept 4 high; canonical pivot 296.62 already crossed);… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $COHR | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $299.22 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus supplier allocation… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $GEV | watch (invalidation?) | WAIT: close above $971.98 (20-day average); Reclaim after initial pop and hold a… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $GLW | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $154.59 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $IREN | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $45.66 (200-day average); Long-average reclaim and held flag;… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $LRCX | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $312.76 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current orders, memory… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $MRVL | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $224.58 (20-day average); Reclaim/flag plus current design-win… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $MU | buy (in zone) | BUY while the cleared 989.96 flag ceiling holds; losing it returns the entry to WAIT… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $NBIS | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $226.58 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); New post-rebound… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $NVDA | watch | WAIT: close above $236.54 (established pivot; preserved predecessor); Settled… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $SNDK | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $1740.00 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); Strict close… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $SOXX | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $523.42 (20-day average; first reclaim reference, not 575.88… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $TSM | watch | WAIT: close above $461.47 (established pivot); Settled volume-supported breakout… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $VRT | watch (invalidation?) | WAIT: close above $280.99 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $WDC | watch (in zone) | WAIT: close above $468.19 (Sept 4 high; SMA20 already reclaimed); NEW flag plus… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | pending |
| $BE | watch | holds the 200-day average at $188.51 | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $GDX | watch | the confirming leg, not the broken one — 11.6% above its 200-day on a +62.48% year;… | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $GLD | watch | a close back above the 200-day ($414.79) that holds a full week; below that the… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | pending |
| $MKSI | watch | reclaims its 200-day average at $259.70 with RSI back above 45 | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $SIL | watch | same shape as GDX — 11.5% above its 200-day on a +75.94% year | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $SLV | pass | n/a — 7.7% below its own 200-day and widening; a reclaim of that average is the… | 2026-09-25 | pending |
| $AGIO | watch | after the current reset prints a higher low, reclaims the 50-day ($35.56) with RSI… | 2026-09-24 | pending |
| $DHR | watch (in zone) | after a pullback to the $210.39 volume shelf, holds and turns back above it with RSI… | 2026-09-24 | pending |
| $EWY | pass | the one-factor market: 16 of the last 45 sessions moved more than 4% — the template… | 2026-09-19 (overdue) | +4.9% |
| $GDX | watch | the policy-blink bid is real but entries are pullbacks, not +8% days — a hold of the… | 2026-09-19 (overdue) | -0.9% |
| $KRE | watch (invalidation?) | not a trade — the bank-stress tell the bond-fear feed keeps asserting; regionals are… | 2026-09-19 (overdue) | -2.0% |
| $BNO | watch (invalidation?) | not a trade — the oil leg of the monitor. BNO ~$57 is Brent ~$100 at the current… | 2026-09-19 (overdue) | +17.5% |
| $HYG | watch (invalidation?) | not a trade — the tell. Credit at -0.31% from its high while the long bond makes… | 2026-09-19 (overdue) | -0.4% |
| $PSX | pass | same as VLO — RSI 80 at the high; nothing here to chase | 2026-09-19 (overdue) | +13.3% |
| $SPY | watch | no new entry — the trend is intact 0.86% off its high; hold it while the 200-day… | 2026-09-19 (overdue) | 0.0% |
| $TLT | watch (in zone) | the historical equity low arrives AT the yield peak, so the long bond is only worth… | 2026-09-19 (overdue) | +0.8% |
| $VLO | pass | the diesel-crack trade is made — RSI 74.8, 0.96% off its high, +35.46% in three… | 2026-09-19 (overdue) | +18.5% |
| $AXON | watch | a pullback that holds the $576.14 shelf or the 20-day ($556.43) | 2026-09-30 | -17.4% |
| $ITA | pass | no entry 2.69% off a 52-week high with RSI 64.4; the wrapper prices the primes, not… | 2026-09-30 | -12.2% |
| $KTOS | pass | no entry while price sits 12.3% below the 200-day ($73.65) with a death cross intact… | 2026-09-30 | -23.3% |
| $RCAT | pass | no entry after a +20.85% week that stalled at the anchored VWAP from the low… | 2026-09-30 | -23.8% |
| $UMAC | watch | a pullback that bases in $21-$24, where the value-area high ($21.09), 50-day… | 2026-10-09 | -23.3% |
| $DUST | pass | n/a — the inverse side of the same instrument problem | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | n/a |
| $GDX | watch | don't chase RSI 70.3 after a +21.31% week — a first pullback that holds the 200-day… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +9.7% |
| $GLD | watch (in zone) | a close above the 200-day ($411.70) that holds with RSI above 55; $445 reopens the… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | +0.2% |
| $NUGT | pass | n/a — leveraged miner exposure compounds the whipsaw that already makes miners the… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +16.4% |
| $SIL | watch (in zone) | above its 200-day by 2.4% but RSI 67.1 after +20.0% — same pullback discipline as… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +10.0% |
| $SIMO | watch (in zone) | price back above the 20-day ($264.25) with the 30-day loss narrowing | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +18.9% |
| $SLV | watch | the laggard of the complex at 9.8% below its 200-day ($63.76) — a reclaim of that… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +0.8% |
| $SNDK | pass | no entry while price sits 13.0% below the 20-day ($1,393.06) and 28.2% below the… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +41.3% |
| $STX | watch (in zone) | holds the 20-day ($834.21) and turns RSI back above 50 | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +13.8% |
| $UUP | watch (invalidation?) | n/a — the dollar at RSI 39.5 is the tailwind, not the trade | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +0.4% |
| $GLD | watch (in zone) | a close above the 200-day ($411.72) that holds with RSI above 55; $445 reopens the… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | +2.9% |
| $CVX | watch | strongest RSI in the upstream cohort (67.2) — hold above the 20-day (~$185.34) to… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +2.0% |
| $GLD | watch | this is a signal to watch, not a trade — a reclaim of the 20-day (~$373.15) would be… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +7.3% |
| $HAL | avoid | not a trend-hold candidate yet — wait for a base and a reclaim of the 50-day… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +11.6% |
| $PSX | watch | RSI is a hair under overbought (69.7) — wait for a pullback to the 20-day (~$200.76)… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +13.8% |
| $USO | watch | the -5.5% weekly pullback holds above the 20-day (~$121.96) — a normal pullback… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +0.8% |
| $VLO | watch | same setup as PSX — a pullback to the 20-day (~$295.63); note this row is one… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +12.0% |
| $ELAN | watch (invalidation?) | a volume-confirmed (at least average volume) close through the 52-week high… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | -9.4% |
| $LEU | watch | first higher low after a clean Jul 29–30 capex read — the −18% month is a beta… | 2026-08-08 (overdue) | +8.9% |
| $CLMT | pass | RSI 83 on 2.7x volume, +165% in a year — parabolic-chaser material, not trend-hold;… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | +7.2% |
| $DK | pass | reopen if it builds a multi-week base above the 20-day ($52.58) and resumes — a… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | -0.1% |
| $MPC | watch | the lane's quality large-cap; interest begins on the first pullback that HOLDS the… | 2026-08-21 (overdue) | +9.5% |
| $PANW | watch | the lane's strongest structure (-2.7% from its 52-week high, +83% on the year);… | 2026-09-04 (overdue) | +3.6% |
| $PL | watch (invalidation?) | untouchable while the knife falls (RSI 30, −14% on the week); interest begins when… | 2026-09-11 (overdue) | +6.0% |
| $PSX | watch | the diversified laggard of the three (+70% on the year, midstream/chem mix dilutes… | 2026-08-21 (overdue) | +11.1% |
| $S | watch | the laggard catching up (+30% in 30 days, still only +9% on the year and -8.6% from… | 2026-09-10 (overdue) | +8.0% |
| $SMH | watch (in zone) | the complex switch: first close back above the 50-day ($597.33) after a higher low,… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | +2.2% |
| $STX | watch (in zone) | the complex's only accumulation-shaped bar: +5.7% on 1.35× volume, closed near the… | 2026-08-14 (overdue) | +19.9% |
| $VLO | watch | best 12-month tape of the pure refiners (+117%); same frame — first 20-day hold… | 2026-08-21 (overdue) | +6.7% |
| $ARM | watch (in zone) | reclaim the pre-registered $270 line and hold it — the trigger the thesis flag broke… | 2026-08-08 (overdue) | -2.4% |
| $CCJ | watch | washed out at RSI 30 — wait for the $84 shelf to hold and a first higher low; the… | 2026-09-15 (overdue) | +11.2% |
| $DUK | watch (invalidation?) | the one working expression — regulated rate-base growth from the same demand; a… | 2026-09-15 (overdue) | -5.1% |
| $LEU | watch (in zone) | only after a full-quarter base — the enrichment monopoly story is intact but the… | 2026-10-01 | +14.0% |
| $VST | watch (invalidation?) | reclaim the 200-day (~$166) and hold it — first sign the derate is done | 2026-09-15 (overdue) | -9.9% |
| $ABCL | watch (in zone) | the pop already happened (Feb low $2.78 to a $8.44 high) — this is the first flag;… | 2026-08-31 (overdue) | +25.3% |
| $CBRS | watch (in zone) | a close above the post-flush bounce high ($221.30) confirms the higher low and… | 2026-08-31 (overdue) | +13.0% |
| $META | watch (in zone) | second reclaim attempt off a higher low — buy interest is a close above ~$665,… | 2026-08-31 (overdue) | -8.6% |
| $MSFT | watch (in zone) | no turn signature yet — interest begins at the 200-day reclaim (~$442) after a base;… | 2026-10-01 | +28.8% |
| $NTLA | watch (invalidation?) | golden cross, +31% month, and a fresh impulse into $18.48 on July 2 — buy interest… | 2026-08-31 (overdue) | -25.0% |
| $ORCL | pass | reopen when the knife stops: the February low ($136) holds on this retest AND a +7%… | 2026-10-01 | +1.9% |
| $AXTI | pass | reopen only if it bases above its 200-day (~$42.55) for a full quarter AND revenue… | 2026-10-01 | +43.6% |
| $CIFR | pass | reopen only on revenue inflecting up AND visible de-leveraging of the $4.4B debt stack | 2026-10-01 | -25.1% |
| $CORZ | pass | reopen on a recapitalization that restores positive equity with the CoreWeave… | 2026-10-01 | -14.3% |
| $CRDO | buy (invalidation?) | elite fundamentals (33% operating margin on $1.34B FY26 revenue) with the… | 2026-09-15 (overdue) | -7.1% |
| $CRWV | pass | reopen only on a financing regime change — interest expense stabilizing while… | 2026-10-01 | -3.0% |
| $EQT | watch (in zone) | the fundamentals are the best in the sweep (net income nearly quadrupled in two… | 2026-10-01 | -2.7% |
| $HUT | pass | reopen on a financed capacity deal that closes the gap between $160M of cash and… | 2026-10-01 | -20.3% |
| $KGS | buy (invalidation?) | the sleeper — record Q1, raised full-year guidance to include the Distributed Power… | 2026-08-15 (overdue) | -18.0% |
| $MXL | watch (in zone) | wire-flagged inflection but already a 4.5x over the year and −16% this week on no… | 2026-08-15 (overdue) | -16.6% |
| $OKTA | pass | the rotation's confirming leader — but RSI 78 and 3% off its high is chasing; reopen… | 2026-09-15 (overdue) | -2.7% |
| $TER | buy (in zone) | the −21% week has no company event behind it — Q1 revenue rose 87% with a 21% EPS… | 2026-08-15 (overdue) | +4.2% |
| $WDAY | watch | the earnings proof-point of the rotation (beat + raised subscription guide) but… | 2026-09-15 (overdue) | +26.6% |
| $SKHY | watch (in zone) | first clean post-debut base — not the open (debut ~2026-07-10) | 2026-09-01 (overdue) | -12.1% |
| $ZM | watch (in zone) | 2 consecutive quarters of accelerating revenue; base over $92 | 2026-09-01 (overdue) | +16.0% |
| $STX | buy | own the cleanest un-hyped inflection — nearline-HDD margins compounding 23%→32% over… | 2026-09-01 (overdue) | -5.3% |
A desk call is an authored stance from a published report; entry and invalidation conditions are human-read, and the full ledger lives at /calls.
30d vs SPY is the raw name-vs-SPY move since the call — for trim/sell calls a NEGATIVE number means the call worked (the name fell after it).
From the Feeds
Curated picks from the last 7 days of the X / Reddit / Discord / web sweep — items the desk read and kept, not the raw capture firehose. Source: -pick- (type: curated-find).
webVikram Sekar — Vik's Newsletter — ECOC 2026 product announcements around optical scale-up $LITE $COHR $TER · link- A roundup of the optical-scale-up launches at this year's ECOC conference, naming Teradyne, ams OSRAM, Lumentum, Qualcomm and Coherent. Directly on the optics campaign's question of which suppliers turn bandwidth demand into products.
webCNBC — Monday's gain carried a breadth reading not seen since 1999 $SPY $RSP $QQQ · link- The cap-weighted index rose sharply while the average stock did not — the same split the settled tape shows, with the equal-weight S&P barely green. A useful outside read on how narrow the leadership is going into a week with a Trump-Xi summit and Q2 GDP.
webSemiAnalysis — how mixture-of-experts models map onto inference hardware $NVDA $MU $ALAB · link- A structural piece on computation and data movement when serving MoE models — the part of the AI stack where memory bandwidth and interconnect, not raw compute, set the cost. Worth the read for anyone holding a view on memory or interconnect demand from inference rather than training.
webBloomberg — a CoreWeave-leased data center goes to the junk-bond market for about $1.1 billion $CRWV $OWL · link- Goldman-led banks are selling roughly $1.1 billion of high-yield debt to build a Blue Owl-sponsored data center leased to CoreWeave. How neocloud capacity gets financed — and at what spread — is the digestion case's live question, and this is a dated, priced data point on it.
webCNBC — Texas governor orders a data-center permit halt weeks after a moratorium $VST $IREN $APLD $CRWV · link- Texas, the largest single market for new AI data-center power, is halting permits weeks after a moratorium, with data centers now a midterm-election issue. A policy constraint on the interconnection leg the AI power campaigns track.
webAju Press — Hormuz is down to four ships a day and war-risk cover costs 40 times normal $FRO $STNG $INSW · link- Transits fell from roughly 125 vessels a day before the war to four on Sept 14, a VLCC's war-risk premium now runs from $250,000 toward $10 million, and Bab el-Mandeb moved 23% of its August 2023 box capacity. This is the arithmetic that turns a Gulf strike into a shelf price in Europe and the US, on a one-to-two-quar…
webSemafor — shipowners ordered twice 2025's tanker count this year, the biggest buying spree in 25 years $FRO $DHT $STNG $INSW · link- Owners have committed roughly $20 billion to newbuilds and daily lease rates are up about tenfold year over year, because the shut Saudi East-West pipeline is pulling crude from the Americas on far longer voyages. Capital spending is the strongest form of a freight call: the market thinks the ton-mile shock outlasts t…
webCNBC — record diesel hits trucks and rails first, then everything they carry $VLO $PSX $MPC $DINO · link- Diesel is the fuel that prices freight, and it set records this month while crude sits well below its 2022 peak — the shortage is refining capacity, not oil. Worth reading beside the August inflation print, where the energy line has fully arrived and the grocery line has not: this piece is the mechanism by which the s…
web— SEC clears path for tokenized stocks, bringing the market closer to 24/7 trading $COIN $HOOD $BTC-USD · link- The structural item of the week, and the one with a real mechanism behind Coinbase's 11.66% Friday. The SEC's long-awaited Innovation Exemption landed September 17 — two days after the Senate blocked the Clarity Act market-structure bill, which had been the industry's top legislative priority. Securitize jumped the sa…
web— Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Just Stopped Selling After a 260,000 BTC Dump $BTC-USD $IBIT $MSTR · link- The only supply-side read on file for the week bitcoin jumped 6.26% in a single Friday session with no catalyst attached to it. Three days before that move, Yahoo Finance reported that long-term holders halted a 260,000-coin distribution. If Friday had a mechanism, a supply stoppage of that size is the most plausible…
redditReuters — Canada makes immediate capex write-offs permanent, cutting its effective tax rate on new investment to 6.4% · link- Canada will let businesses write off most new capital spending immediately and permanently, taking the marginal effective tax rate on new business investment from about 13% to 6.4% — by Ottawa's own claim the lowest of any major economy and less than half the US rate. Two-thirds of assets qualify, with mining and oil-…
webReuters — SK Hynix in talks to build memory in the US with Intel for the first time $INTC $SKHY $MU · link- SK Hynix is in exploratory talks to manufacture memory chips in the United States for the first time: one scenario has it leasing part of Intel's Ohio plant, another a joint venture with Intel and large cloud buyers. Nothing is decided and Seoul's resistance to moving the technology offshore is the named obstacle, but…
𝕏Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) — Serenity — Foxconn's interconnect chairman names CW lasers and fiber the photonics bottleneck $LITE $COHR $AAOI $GLW $MTSI $NVDA · link- Foxconn Interconnect's chairman singles out continuous-wave lasers and optical fiber as the binding constraint in photonics, and Foxconn is weighing joint investments upstream to secure that supply — the same move Nvidia made with Lumentum and Coherent. An assembler putting its own capital behind the bottleneck is a h…
𝕏SemiAnalysis (@SemiAnalysis_) — SemiAnalysis — Rubin NVL72 benches at 7x the performance per watt of GB300, not the 3x claimed $NVDA · link- SemiAnalysis says its own testing of Rubin NVL72 against GB300 NVL72 shows roughly 7x better performance per watt, against the 3x Nvidia claimed for the part at GTC. It is a measurement rather than a vendor slide, and if it holds the power drawn per unit of AI compute falls faster than the grid-constraint arithmetic c…
𝕏Paradis (@ParadisLabs) — Paradis — Nebius raises rates on four-year-old H100s, and the GPU-depreciation bear case with them $NBIS $CRWV $NVDA · link- Nebius raises on-demand GPU rates from October 1: H100 goes from $3.85 to $4.50 an hour, H200 to $5.40, B200 to $8.50, B300 to $9.50. The second-order read is the one worth having — pricing power on four-year-old H100s, alongside the A100 contract CoreWeave said on its earnings call runs into 2029, cuts against the GP…
Filings
- NEW: $DELL 4 filed 2026-09-22 (period 2026-09-18)
- NEW: $DELL 4 filed 2026-09-22 (period 2026-09-18)
- NEW: $DELL 4 filed 2026-09-22 (period 2026-09-18)
- NEW: $TEAM 4 filed 2026-09-22 (period 2026-09-20)
- NEW: $TEAM 4 filed 2026-09-22 (period 2026-09-20)
- NEW: $KLAC DEF 14A filed 2026-09-22 (period 2026-11-04)
- NEW: $UMC 4 filed 2026-09-22 (period 2026-09-22)
- NEW: $NVMI 4 filed 2026-09-22 (period 2026-09-21)
- NEW: $CGNX 8-K filed 2026-09-22 (period 2026-09-22)
- NEW: $BB 8-K filed 2026-09-22 (period 2026-09-22)
- NEW: $CIEN 4 filed 2026-09-22 (period 2026-09-20)
- NEW: $CIEN 4 filed 2026-09-22 (period 2026-09-20)
- …and 74 more in the source JSON.
- Last 14 days: $DELL 4 (2026-09-22); $DELL 4 (2026-09-22); $DELL 4 (2026-09-22); $TEAM 4 (2026-09-22); $TEAM 4 (2026-09-22); $KLAC DEF 14A (2026-09-22); $UMC 4 (2026-09-22); $NVMI 4 (2026-09-22); ….
Breadth And Movers
Price truth: *; primary summary date 2026-09-22. Row dates: 2026-09-22: 2527.
- Summary coverage: 2527/2527 rows at 2026-09-22; 1124 unique symbols after de-duplication.
- Non-derivative unique-symbol breadth: 624 up, 477 down, 16 flat across 1117 names; median 1D change +0.2%.
- Market-pulse breadth: 34 up, 21 down, 1 flat; median 1D change +0.1% from market-pulse.
Top gainers by 1D change (filtered to price >= $1, dollar volume >= $50M, finite RSI; daily-reset leveraged and synthetic-income funds excluded — their print is a geared restatement of an underlying, not a company move):
| Symbol | 1D | 7D | 30D | RSI | Signal | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $VKTX | +35.7% | +36.4% | +20.5% | 71.2 | Overbought | $40.85 | biotech-capital-cycle |
| $MAZE | +26.8% | +17.1% | -3.6% | 60.0 | weak-up | $28.38 | monster-discoveries |
| $BFLY | +22.0% | +27.3% | +4.0% | 67.3 | Overbought | $9.93 | monster-discoveries |
| $VICR | +19.9% | +45.9% | +33.8% | 69.8 | Overbought | $268.34 | ai-power |
| $HYMC | +10.5% | +9.6% | -16.2% | 50.2 | strong-down | $22.69 | monster-discoveries |
Top laggards by 1D change (same filter):
| Symbol | 1D | 7D | 30D | RSI | Signal | Price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $XNDU | -21.6% | -25.9% | -47.2% | 18.9 | Extreme oversold | $5.78 | focus |
| $BWET | -18.2% | -6.1% | +45.6% | 58.6 | strong-up | $682.01 | war-sensitivity |
| $CLDX | -11.6% | -13.0% | -17.0% | 28.3 | Oversold | $33.51 | monster-discoveries |
| $GSHD | -11.5% | -22.9% | -36.9% | 25.3 | Oversold | $45.76 | monster-discoveries |
| $NKTR | -8.8% | -8.5% | -17.6% | 28.4 | Oversold | $60.97 | biotech-scan |
- Excluded as derivative wrappers (7): $SOXS -8.2%, $SOXL +7.1%, $TQQQ +2.4%, $TECL +2.2%, $TNA +1.6%, $SPXL -0.1%, $UPRO -0.0% — read these in the tape scans, where leverage and the underlying travel with them.
Targets In Zone
| Target | Anchor date | Tickers | Mechanical status | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTNT entry-zone — $166-$174 | 2026-09-22 | $FTNT | APPROACHING — $174.26 is 0.1% above $166–$174; waiting for the pullback | $166-$174 |
| META entry-zone — $670-$690 | 2026-09-22 | $META | APPROACHING — $736.60 is 6.8% above $670–$690; waiting for the pullback | $670-$690 |
| OKTA entry-zone — $176-$184 | 2026-09-22 | $OKTA | APPROACHING — $196.62 is 6.9% above $176–$184; waiting for the pullback | $176-$184 |
| ZS entry-zone — $188-$198 | 2026-09-22 | $ZS | APPROACHING — $210.18 is 6.2% above $188–$198; waiting for the pullback | $188-$198 |
| ARM entry-zone — support shelf <$166.15 | 2026-08-28 | $ARM | APPROACHING — $333.20 is 100.5% above under $166.15; waiting for the pullback | <$166.15 |
| AVGO entry-zone — support shelf <$352.12 / 200-day test | 2026-08-28 | $AVGO | APPROACHING — $364.54 is 3.5% above under $352.12; waiting for the pullback | <$352.12 |
| AVAV profit-target — $276.00 | 2026-08-14 | $AVAV | APPROACHING — $156.11 is 43.4% below the $276 target, trend strong-down | $276.00 |
| UMAC profit-target — $45.00 | 2026-08-14 | $UMAC | APPROACHING — $24.03 is 46.6% below the $45 target, trend strong-up | $45.00 |
Convergence Leaders
- Stocks in projection: 738;
convergentCount0;divergentCount3.