AI Infrastructure
Update
AI Infrastructure
AI infrastructure plays - semis, networking, power, packaging. PLTR RSI 22↓, MRVL weak.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 MIXED - Infrastructure holding, software/defense names crushed |
| Key insight | PLTR RSI 22↓ from -19.8% 30D selloff. ARM -9.7% 30D weak. |
| Memory ripping | MU/STX/WDC all RSI 72-77↑ - HBM thesis playing out but extended |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 WATCH | PLTR | RSI 22↓ oversold, but -32.8% from high |
| 🔍 RESEARCH | MRVL | -18.2% 30D, custom ASICs thesis |
| ⚠️ AVOID | MU, STX, WDC | RSI 72-77↑ overbought after parabolic run |
| 🔒 HOLD | TSM, ASML | Quality foundry/equipment |
Data (Validated 2026-02-04)
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | 52wkHi | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | $232.99 | -2.6% | -0.0% | -6.9% | -9.9% | 46 | 🟡 Sideways | 📈 DCA zone |
| NVDA | $174.19 | -5.8% | -7.4% | -10.8% | -17.9% | 41 | 🟡 Pullback | 🔍 Watch |
| ASML | $1339.13 | -1.8% | +9.0% | +28.3% | -10.3% | 58 | 🟢 Strong | 🔒 Hold |
| TAC | $12.59 | -5.0% | -2.2% | -25.4% | -29.6% | 55 | 🟡 Weak | 🔍 Research |
| TSM | $325.74 | -1.1% | +1.1% | +11.2% | -7.3% | 49 | 🟡 Neutral | 🔒 Hold |
| PLTR | $139.54 | -3.1% | -19.8% | -25.7% | -32.8% | 22↓ | 🟢 OVERSOLD | 📈 Watch |
| MRVL | $73.73 | -10.0% | -18.2% | -20.6% | -39.5% | 32 | 🟢 Near oversold | 🔍 Research |
| ARM | $104.90 | -5.4% | -9.7% | -34.5% | -42.7% | 50 | 🟡 Weak | 🔍 Watch |
Memory (Extended - Avoid Adding)
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | RSI | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | $437.80 | +6.6% | +40.3% | 76↑ | ⚠️ Overbought |
| STX | $432.95 | +12.8% | +49.4% | 77↑ | ⚠️ Overbought |
| WDC | $270.23 | +3.3% | +43.8% | 72↑ | ⚠️ Overbought |
Key Positions
PLTR - Palantir (Watching)
Thesis: AI/defense software. Government + enterprise AI platform.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current | $139.54 |
| 30D | -19.8% |
| RSI | 22↓ (Oversold) |
| 52wk High | -32.8% |
Analysis:
- RSI 22 = significant oversold
- AI hype cycle turning - PLTR caught in rotation
- Fundamentals still strong (profitable, growing)
- Government contracts = stable revenue base
Action: 📈 Watch for stabilization. Don't catch falling knife.
MRVL - Marvell (Research)
Thesis: Custom ASICs for AI. Celestial AI partnership.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current | $73.73 |
| 30D | -18.2% |
| RSI | 32 |
| 52wk High | -39.5% |
Analysis:
- Custom silicon for hyperscalers (Google, Amazon)
- Celestial AI optical interconnect partnership
- Competition from NVDA custom silicon
- Needs deeper research
Action: 🔍 Research thesis before entry
Memory Stocks (Avoid)
MU, STX, WDC all RSI 72-77↑ after parabolic 40-50% runs.
Analysis:
- HBM thesis correct - memory demand for AI real
- BUT: +40-50% 30D runs = extremely extended
- Wait for pullback to RSI <50 before considering
Action: ⚠️ Avoid adding at current levels
Entry Zones Status
| Stock | Entry Zone | Current | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | <$120 | $139.54 | 🔍 Above zone but oversold |
| MRVL | <$70 | $73.73 | 🔍 Near zone (needs research) |
| MU | <$350 | $437.80 | ⚠️ Way above (wait pullback) |
Next Actions
- Watch PLTR for stabilization at current oversold levels
- Deep dive MRVL custom ASIC thesis
- Monitor memory (MU/STX/WDC) for pullback
- Track TAC Alberta catalyst
Commands
cd stonks
the desk's own tooling
the desk's own tooling
the desk's own tooling
the desk's own tooling
Related
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