Crypto
Update
Crypto
BTC via ETF. Both GBTC and IBIT near oversold. IBIT still the better vehicle (lower fees).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 OVERSOLD - BTC ETFs near RSI 29, -17% in 30D |
| Key insight | BTC crashed hard since 02/01. GBTC RSI 29, IBIT RSI 29. Both near oversold. Switch to IBIT for fees. |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 WATCH | IBIT | RSI 29↓ near oversold, 0.25% fees, better than GBTC |
| 🔍 SWITCH | GBTC -> IBIT | Same BTC exposure, 1.5% vs 0.25% fees |
Legend
- RSI
↓= Oversold (<30) - potential buying opportunity - RSI
↑= Overbought (>70) - FOMO warning, may pullback - 52wkHi = % from 52-week high (how far below peak)
Data (Validated 2026-02-05, data as of 02/02)
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | 52wkHi | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBTC | $60.82 | -7.5% | -17.4% | -27.0% | -39.0% | 29↓ | 🟢 Near Oversold | 📈 Watch |
| IBIT | $44.22 | -6.5% | -17.3% | -25.0% | -32.0% | 29↓ | 🟢 Near Oversold | 📈 Watch |
Note: Data is from 02/02 close. BTC may have moved significantly since. Verify current prices before acting.
Analysis
GBTC - Grayscale Bitcoin Trust
Thesis: BTC exposure via ETF. Saudi Arabia accumulation rumor.
| Metric | Value | Change from 02/01 |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $60.82 | -$0.02 (flat) |
| RSI | 29↓ | Was 29↓ (same) |
| 30D | -17.4% | Was -17% |
| Fees | 1.5% | Unchanged |
- Still near oversold at RSI 29
- -17% in 30 days = significant BTC pullback
- Saudi thesis remains unverified rumor
- 1.5% expense ratio is STILL HIGH
Verdict: 🔍 Watch, but switch to IBIT for fee savings
IBIT - iShares Bitcoin Trust (PREFERRED)
Thesis: BTC exposure via ETF. Lower fees = better vehicle.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $44.22 |
| RSI | 29↓ (Near oversold) |
| 30D | -17.3% |
| Fees | 0.25% |
- Same BTC exposure as GBTC at 1/6th the cost
- RSI 29 = near oversold, same as GBTC
- If buying BTC exposure, IBIT is the clear winner
- Consider entry if RSI drops below 25
Verdict: 📈 Preferred BTC vehicle. Watch for oversold confirmation.
Update from 02/01 (4 Days Stale)
| What Changed | Detail |
|---|---|
| Price | GBTC $60.84 -> $60.82 (essentially flat) |
| RSI | Was 29, still 29 |
| Recommendation | Same: switch GBTC -> IBIT |
| Market | BTC held ~$97K area, tariff fears weighed on crypto |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| GBTC has 1.5% fees | IBIT/FBTC are 0.25% - switch immediately |
| Saudi thesis is rumor | Don't trade on unverified info |
| BTC ETFs are commoditized | Fees matter, switch to cheapest |
| Both near RSI 29 | BTC may be finding a floor here |
Mistakes
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Paying 1.5% fees on GBTC | Should have been in IBIT from day one |
| Data 4 days stale | Need to refresh crypto data more frequently |
Open Questions
- Should I switch GBTC -> IBIT? (YES, do it)
- Tax implications of GBTC -> IBIT switch?
- Is BTC bottoming at ~$97K or more downside?
- Will tariff uncertainty continue to weigh on crypto?
Next Actions
- Execute GBTC -> IBIT switch (calculate tax impact first)
- Refresh crypto data (4 days stale)
- Watch IBIT for RSI <25 entry
- Monitor BTC price action around $95-100K support
- Decision: switch or hold by end of week
Commands
cd stonks
the desk's own tooling
the desk's own tooling
the desk's own tooling
the desk's own tooling
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.