Software massacre. 27 entry zones active. MSFT RSI 29, CRM RSI 18, SNOW RSI 18, NOW RSI 24. BE stop-loss hit. ISRG RSI 9.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🔴 Risk-off -- broad tech selloff, software/cloud getting destroyed, VIX rising |
| Key insight |
Software is in capitulation territory. 27 entry zones open. MSFT, CRM, NOW, SNOW at multi-month lows. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Stocks |
Why |
| ✅ STRONG BUY |
MSFT, CRM, NOW, SNOW, ISRG, NET, LULU, ESTC |
RSI <30 or extreme pullback + thesis intact |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE |
AMZN, CRSP, BEAM, MDB, DDOG, NVDA |
DCA into quality on weakness |
| 🔒 HOLD |
GOOGL, AAPL, META, GILD, BIIB, JEPI, SOXX |
Strong positions, don't sell |
| 🔍 WATCH |
TSLA, LLY, BNTX, ILMN, ALNY, AS, IWM, CFLT |
Need clarity or more pullback |
| ⚠️ AVOID |
GILD (new), IBRX, SLV, GLD (new) |
Overbought or too volatile |
| ❌ DON'T BUY |
EDIT, LEGN, BLUE, ARKF |
Falling knives, structural issues |
Legend
- RSI
↓ = Oversold (<30) - potential buying opportunity
- RSI
↑ = Overbought (>70) - FOMO warning, may pullback
- 52wkHi = % from 52-week high (how far below peak)
- 27 entry zones referenced from today's actions file
Market Pulse
| Indicator |
ETF |
7D |
30D |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| S&P 500 |
VOO |
-2.4% |
-2.1% |
37 |
🟡 Weakening |
🔍 Watch |
| Nasdaq-100 |
QQQM |
-5.1% |
-4.2% |
35 |
🔴 Selling off |
🔍 Approaching buy zone |
| VIX/Fear |
VIXY |
+8.2% |
+12.5% |
62 |
🔴 FEAR RISING |
⚠️ Caution |
| Gold |
GLD |
-10.9% |
+6.9% |
55 |
🟡 Volatile pullback |
🔍 Watch |
| Small Caps |
IWM |
-2.9% |
-0.1% |
35 |
🟡 Weakening |
🔍 Watch |
Overall: 🔴 RISK-OFF - VIX rising sharply, tech in selloff mode, software/cloud in capitulation. Defensive names (GILD, BIIB, JEPI) outperforming.
Key Events Today
| Event |
Detail |
| BE SOLD |
Stop-loss triggered at $136.60 -- energy thesis reversed |
| MSFT RSI 29 |
Entering buy zone, -17.7% 30D |
| CRM RSI 18 |
Extreme oversold, -27.7% 30D |
| SNOW RSI 18 |
Extreme oversold, -33.2% 30D |
| NOW RSI 24 |
Extreme oversold, -31.0% 30D |
| ISRG RSI 9 |
Historically extreme, surgical robotics leader |
| IGV RSI 13 |
Software ETF in capitulation |
| LULU RSI 27 |
Consumer discretionary weakness |
Theme Summaries
AI Infrastructure
| Stock |
Price |
7D |
30D |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| AMZN |
$222.69 |
-7.9% |
-7.6% |
36 |
🟡 Selling |
📈 Accumulate |
| NVDA |
$171.88 |
-10.7% |
-8.2% |
34 |
🟡 Pullback |
📈 Accumulate |
| MSFT |
$393.67 |
-9.2% |
-17.7% |
29↓ |
🔴 OVERSOLD |
✅ Strong Buy |
Big Tech (MAG7)
| Stock |
Price |
7D |
30D |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| AAPL |
$275.91 |
+6.8% |
+5.2% |
69 |
🟢 Strong |
🔒 Hold |
| AMZN |
$222.69 |
-7.9% |
-7.6% |
36 |
🟡 Selling |
📈 Accumulate |
| GOOGL |
$331.25 |
-2.1% |
+5.4% |
48 |
🟢 Holding |
🔒 Hold |
| META |
$670.21 |
-9.2% |
+1.5% |
61 |
🟡 Pullback from highs |
🔒 Hold |
| MSFT |
$393.67 |
-9.2% |
-17.7% |
29↓ |
🔴 OVERSOLD |
✅ Strong Buy |
| NVDA |
$171.88 |
-10.7% |
-8.2% |
34 |
🟡 Pullback |
📈 Accumulate |
| TSLA |
$397.21 |
- |
- |
34 |
🟡 Pullback |
🔍 Watch |
Cloud/SaaS (MASSACRE)
| Stock |
Price |
7D |
30D |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| CRM |
$189.97 |
-11.3% |
-27.7% |
18↓ |
🔴 EXTREME OVERSOLD |
✅ Strong Buy |
| NOW |
$102.63 |
-12.1% |
-31.0% |
24↓ |
🔴 EXTREME OVERSOLD |
✅ Strong Buy |
| SNOW |
$156.71 |
-21.4% |
-33.2% |
18↓ |
🔴 EXTREME OVERSOLD |
✅ Strong Buy |
| DDOG |
$106.73 |
-16.7% |
-22.2% |
39 |
🟡 Pullback |
📈 Accumulate |
| MDB |
$326.50 |
-12.7% |
-25.1% |
30 |
🟡 Approaching oversold |
📈 Accumulate |
| ESTC |
$57.16 |
-15.6% |
-24.4% |
22↓ |
🔴 EXTREME OVERSOLD |
✅ Strong Buy |
| CFLT |
$30.36 |
-0.7% |
+0.6% |
35 |
🟡 Holding |
🔍 Watch |
| DOCN |
$57.66 |
+2.7% |
+6.8% |
59 |
🟢 Relative strength |
🔍 Watch |
| FSLY |
$7.96 |
-17.3% |
-21.0% |
36 |
🔴 Falling |
❌ Don't buy |
Web/Cloud
| Stock |
Price |
7D |
30D |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| NET |
$163.05 |
-9.6% |
-17.7% |
40 |
🟡 Pullback |
✅ Strong Buy |
Consumer/Retail
| Stock |
Price |
7D |
30D |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| AS |
$35.73 |
-4.3% |
-7.5% |
42 |
🟡 Pullback |
🔍 Watch |
| LULU |
$170.09 |
-1.4% |
-21.2% |
27↓ |
🔴 OVERSOLD |
✅ Strong Buy |
Energy/Data Centers
| Stock |
Price |
7D |
30D |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| BE |
$136.60 |
-12.7% |
+32.6% |
49 |
🟡 SOLD |
Stop-loss hit 02/05 |
| EOSE |
$11.28 |
-30.0% |
-20.3% |
27↓ |
🔴 OVERSOLD |
🔍 Watch, volatile |
Biotech
| Stock |
Price |
7D |
30D |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| ISRG |
$476.32 |
-6.2% |
-19.7% |
9↓ |
🔴 EXTREME OVERSOLD |
✅ Strong Buy |
| LLY |
$1,020.84 |
-0.3% |
-4.1% |
48 |
🟡 Pullback |
🔍 Watch |
| GILD |
$149.37 |
+7.0% |
+23.1% |
93↑ |
🔴 OVERBOUGHT |
⚠️ Don't chase |
| BIIB |
$185.36 |
+5.2% |
+1.5% |
73↑ |
🟢 Strong |
🔒 Hold |
| CRSP |
$45.88 |
-14.0% |
-21.2% |
36 |
🟡 At target zone |
📈 Accumulate |
| BEAM |
$24.73 |
-15.6% |
-12.7% |
26↓ |
🔴 OVERSOLD |
📈 Accumulate |
| MRNA |
$40.87 |
-12.8% |
+14.6% |
53 |
🟡 Fading |
🔍 Watch |
Crypto
| Stock |
Price |
7D |
30D |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| GBTC |
$60.82 |
-11.0% |
-17.4% |
29↓ |
🔴 OVERSOLD |
🔍 Swap to IBIT |
| BTC |
$34.49 |
-11.0% |
-17.3% |
28↓ |
🔴 NEAR STOP |
🔍 Monitor $34 stop |
| IBIT |
$44.22 |
-10.9% |
-17.3% |
29↓ |
🔴 OVERSOLD |
🔍 Swap target |
| Stock |
Price |
7D |
30D |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| GLD |
$441.88 |
-10.9% |
+6.9% |
55 |
🟡 Volatile |
🔍 Watch |
| SLV |
$66.69 |
-36.8% |
-9.5% |
40 |
🔴 CRASHED |
⚠️ Avoid, too volatile |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| Software capitulation |
CRM, NOW, SNOW all RSI <25 -- sector-wide, not company-specific |
| MSFT RSI 29 entry |
Azure miss overreaction continues, entering buy zone |
| ISRG RSI 9 historic |
Surgical robotics monopoly at extreme oversold -- best biotech entry signal |
| BE stop-loss worked |
System worked -- removed before further decline |
| 27 entry zones active |
Most since portfolio inception -- deployment opportunity |
| IGV RSI 13 |
Software ETF entry -- basket approach vs single stock |
| GILD breakout |
Defensive pharma leading -- confirms risk-off rotation |
| SLV crashed -37% in 1wk |
Silver can be extremely volatile -- not a safe haven |
| DOCN relative strength |
+6.8% 30D while sector down -25% average -- investigate why |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| Didn't set BE stop earlier |
Would have caught higher, but system still worked |
| Missed MU (+45%) |
Waited too long to research HBM thesis |
| Almost bought CRSR |
"Cheap" isn't a thesis - falling knife |
| Bought ARKX for SpaceX |
ARKX has NO SpaceX - need ARKVX |
| GBTC fees |
Still paying 1.5% when IBIT is 0.25% |
| SLV position |
Silver too volatile for core holding |
Open Questions
- Is the software selloff a buying opportunity or start of something bigger?
- When does MSFT bottom? RSI 29 but Azure growth narrative damaged
- Is ISRG RSI 9 a gift or sign of fundamental concern?
- Should I deploy into 5-10 of the 27 entry zones or wait for VIX to spike higher?
- BTC at $34.49 -- hold through stop or let it trigger at $34?
- Is CRM at $190 (was $263 a month ago) the entry of the year?
Emotion Check
Before any trade:
- Is this FOMO? (GILD, BIIB running -- DON'T CHASE)
- Is this panic? (BE stop was disciplined, not panic)
- Is this capitulation buying too early? (Software could fall more)
- Does thesis exist for each entry?
- Position size appropriately -- many entry zones, don't overcommit to one
Key rule today: 27 entry zones means SPREAD capital, don't concentrate. Max 2-3% per new position.
Next Actions
- IMMEDIATE: Decide BTC position -- $34.49 near $34 stop
- TODAY: Evaluate top 5 from 27 entry zones for deployment
- PRIORITY: MSFT, CRM, ISRG -- rank by conviction
- PRIORITY: Swap GBTC -> IBIT for fee savings
- RESEARCH: IGV vs individual software names for entry
- MONITOR: VIX/VIXY for fear spike (contrarian buy signal)
- Wait for ASML pullback to enter semis
- Monitor LULU catalyst - Wilson proxy vote date
- Review SLV position after crash stabilizes
Commands
cd stonks
the desk's own tooling
the desk's own tooling
the desk's own tooling
Next portfolio: Create when major move (>5%), weekly review, or catalyst fires.
Theme Deep Dives