Mega-cap AI in capitulation cluster — META RSI 26 and AMZN RSI 25 at extreme oversold levels, MSFT RSI 31 and GOOGL RSI 32 near washout, AMD down 20% in 30 days. NVDA and AVGO/MRVL are the neutral anchors holding the space together.

META — RSI 26, $655.66, -2.3% vs SMA

• Was at $780 on Feb 3 (30D ago). Sold off 16% to oversold. RSI 26 is a buy level in any historical backtest.
• 30D return: +6.9% — the recent close is still above 30D open but intraday was much higher (peaked ~$780). The RSI 26 represents technical washout on recent distribution.
• MACD: -5.38, signal -7.50 — bearish but histogram improving (was -6.95 on Feb 13, now -5.38 = divergence).
• Entry: $640-660. Target: SMA retest $670+ = 2-3% near-term, $700+ = 6-7% medium-term.

AMZN — RSI 25, $210.11, -5.2% vs SMA

• Down 9.2% over 30 days from $231. RSI 25 = extreme washout. MACD histogram improving (-5.38 vs lower earlier).
• Was RSI 17 on Feb 16 per prior market pulse — has bounced from extreme lows but still at capitulation levels.
• Entry: $205-212. Target: SMA retest $221+ = 5% near-term.

MSFT — RSI 31, $397.23, -5.6% vs SMA

• Down 10.4% over 30 days. -$46 from $443. RSI 31 approaching generational entry for MSFT.
• MACD -5.16, signal -8.59 — deeply negative but was worse on 2/13 (now improving slightly).
• Entry: $390-400. Target: $420 SMA retest = 5-6%.

GOOGL — RSI 32, $314.98, -2.6% vs SMA

• Down 4.1% over 30 days. RSI 32 in buy territory. 7D: +3.0% — showing early reversal attempt.
• MACD: -3.07, histogram improving (+0.12 → +0.21 → +0.39 over last 3 sessions).
• Strongest recovery attempt in the oversold cluster. Entry: $308-318. Target: $323 SMA retest = 3%.

AMD — RSI 34, $200.15, -10.2% vs SMA

• 🔴 Most structurally damaged: -19.9% over 30 days. $250 → $200. SMA at $222.87 = 11% overhead resistance.
• Requires significant recovery just to reach SMA. Higher risk vs other names.
• Entry: $195-205 only. Target: $215 = 7%. Avoid chasing.

NVDA — RSI 49, $189.82, +1.9% vs SMA

• Holding up best in the AI space. +3.5% over 30 days while peers sold off. RSI neutral = healthy.
• Relative strength vs AMD/MSFT/META is striking. Hold existing positions.

AVGO — RSI 51, $332.65, +0.9% vs SMA

• Clean neutral. +1.2% 30D. Holding SMA. No action needed.

MRVL — RSI 51, $79.48, -0.1% vs SMA

• Essentially at SMA. RSI neutral 51. MACD -0.61, histogram +0.13 = slight improvement.
• 30D: -3.7% — mild underperformance but stabilizing.

Bottom line: GOOGL and AMZN are showing the strongest near-term recovery attempts. META at RSI 26 is the highest-conviction entry if you believe in a mean reversion. AMD is the wounded name — avoid size until it shows a clear SMA recovery path. NVDA is the safe hold.

Key Discoveries:

• 🏆 META + AMZN at simultaneous RSI 25-26 is a rare capitulation cluster — historically a high-conviction reversal setup in mega-cap names
• GOOGL MACD histogram has been improving for 3 consecutive sessions — early divergence signal
• NVDA's relative strength (+3.5% 30D vs AMD -20%, MSFT -10%) is a leadership signal for the AI theme

Mistakes to Avoid:

• AMD: Avoid building full position here — -10% below SMA means overhead resistance is significant. Scale in small.
• Don't buy the oversold cluster if VIXY spikes above 35 — that signals more selling to come
• META's 30D is +6.9% which seems contradictory to RSI 26 — this is because the 30D range started at $612 (Jan 21) and peaked at $738 before selling back to $655. The RSI captures the recent distribution.

Open Questions:

• Is META/AMZN RSI 25-26 a final washout or early innings of a structural downtrend?
• When does VIXY roll over and provide the all-clear for the growth bounce?
• Why is AMD -20% while NVDA is +3.5% over the same period — is this AMD-specific or a segmentation in AI (inference vs training)?