AI Scan
Scan
AI Scan
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 45 rows · screens, not recommendations superseded by2026-05-01-ai-scanported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-02-26-ai-scan.mdscan slugai-scansource typescan-archive
ORCL in freefall (RSI 15, -20% 30D, -16% vs SMA) and GOOGL approaching oversold (RSI 29), while ARM and TSM surge to overbought (RSI 71); AVGO took a -6.2% 7D hit; AMAT data missing. The AI space is bifurcating sharply between overbought semiconductors and oversold software/cloud.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟠 BIFURCATED — Hard split: ARM/TSM at RSI 71 (overbought) vs ORCL RSI 15 and GOOGL RSI 29 (extreme oversold). Not a clean bull or bear setup — sector rotation within AI. |
| Risk appetite | 🟡 Mixed — Semiconductor hardware (ARM, TSM, ASML) outperforming strongly. Software/cloud (ORCL, GOOGL) being sold aggressively. AVGO took a -6.2% 7D hit despite neutral RSI. |
| Key insight | ORCL RSI 15 is the loudest signal in the scan — this is capitulation territory. However with data from Feb 3 (3+ weeks stale) and -20% 30D, the thesis needs validation before entry. GOOGL at RSI 29 is a cleaner, fresher signal with partial recovery attempt. ARM/TSM overbought — don't chase. |
Price Table (Validated 2026-02-26)
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | $152.95 | -12.6% | -20.4% | 15 | $182.03 | -16.0% | 🟢 Capitulation | ✅ Research First |
| GOOGL | $306.33 | +1.2% | -8.1% | 29 | $319.01 | -4.0% | 🟢 Oversold | 📈 Accumulate |
| AMZN | $206.73 | +0.9% | -13.3% | 34 | $214.94 | -3.8% | 🟢 Oversold | 📈 Accumulate |
| META | $656.98 | +1.9% | -2.3% | 44 | $666.50 | -1.4% | 🟡 Recovering | 🔍 Watch |
| MSFT | $401.58 | +0.8% | -14.4% | 56 | $404.83 | -0.8% | 🟡 Near SMA | 🔍 Watch |
| MRVL | $77.86 | -2.2% | -4.8% | 58 | $78.87 | -1.3% | 🟡 Near SMA | 🔒 Hold |
| AVGO | $313.30 | -6.2% | -3.6% | 51 | $329.13 | -4.8% | 🟡 Below SMA | 🔍 Watch |
| NVDA | $185.57 | -1.2% | -0.5% | 63 | $186.78 | -0.7% | 🟡 Neutral-strong | 🔒 Hold |
| ASML | $1,457.69 | -0.1% | +3.3% | 66 | $1,434.01 | +1.7% | 🟢 Above SMA | 🔒 Hold |
| TSM | $372.88 | +3.5% | +12.1% | 71 | $357.61 | +4.3% | 🟠 Near overbought | ⚠️ Don't Chase |
| ARM | $127.53 | +0.5% | +11.2% | 71 | $120.29 | +6.0% | 🟠 Near overbought | ⚠️ Don't Chase |
| AMAT | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 🔍 No data |
Tier Analysis
Tier 1 — Capitulation (RSI < 25) — Extreme Caution / Highest Potential
ORCL — RSI 15, $152.95, -16.0% vs SMA, -20.4% 30D
- Data is from Feb 3 (3+ weeks stale) — the $152.95 close and -12.6% 7D may reflect a specific earnings/catalyst event. RSI 15 is the lowest in the scan by far.
- SMA at $182.03 = $30 overhead resistance. This is not a quick bounce setup — it needs time to rebuild.
- Key question: Is this a post-earnings gap down that's stabilized, or is it still falling? 30D: -20.4% = severe damage. Stale data makes entry dangerous.
- If data is real: RSI 15 with thesis intact = aggressive entry zone. Needs fresh data confirmation.
- Entry zone: $148-158 (current range). Stop: $140. Target: $175 (SMA recovery) = +14%. Only if thesis holds.
Tier 2 — Oversold (RSI 25-40) — Entry Zone
GOOGL — RSI 29, $306.33, -4.0% vs SMA, -8.1% 30D
- Fresh data (Feb 26). RSI 29 is approaching the same extreme seen in the broader AI selloff of mid-Feb.
- -8.1% over 30 days from $333 starting point. 7D: +1.2% = early recovery attempt.
- Was RSI 32 on Feb 22 ($314.98) — RSI has dropped further despite small price recovery. Unusual.
- Entry: $300-310. Stop: $290. Target: SMA retest $319 = +4% near-term, $330 = +8% medium.
AMZN — RSI 34, $206.73, -3.8% vs SMA, -13.3% 30D
- Still in buy zone from Feb 22 scan (was RSI 25 then, now 34 = partially recovered). -13.3% 30D.
- Thesis intact: e-commerce + AWS + advertising flywheel. Entry zone remains valid.
- Entry: $200-210. Stop: $192. Target: $220 SMA = +6%.
Tier 3 — Neutral / Recovering (RSI 40-65)
META — RSI 44, $656.98, -1.4% vs SMA, -2.3% 30D
- Recovering from RSI 26 (Feb 22). Now at 44 — the bounce is underway. Partial position may already be profitable from Feb entry.
- At RSI 44, less urgent to add. Watch for SMA reclaim ($666.50) as confirmation.
MSFT — RSI 56, $401.58, -0.8% vs SMA, -14.4% 30D
- RSI has recovered significantly from RSI 31 (Feb 22) to 56 now. Nearly back to SMA. -14.4% 30D still shows damage.
- At RSI 56, near SMA — risk/reward less compelling. Hold existing; don't add at SMA.
AVGO — RSI 51, $313.30, -4.8% vs SMA, -3.6% 30D
- Significant 7D drop: -6.2%. May be responding to earnings or guidance. RSI still neutral at 51 but -4.8% below SMA is notable.
- Watch if this becomes an oversold opportunity. If RSI drops to 35-40, entry zone activates.
NVDA — RSI 63, $185.57, -0.7% vs SMA, -0.5% 30D
- Holding up best in the space. Neutral-to-bullish. The relative strength leader in AI.
MRVL — RSI 58, $77.86, -1.3% vs SMA, -4.8% 30D
- Near SMA, neutral. Small 7D dip (-2.2%) but not alarming. Hold.
Tier 4 — Overbought (RSI 70+) — Avoid / Let Run
ARM — RSI 71, $127.53, +6.0% vs SMA, +11.2% 30D
- Running hot. +11.2% over 30 days. Don't chase at RSI 71.
TSM — RSI 71, $372.88, +4.3% vs SMA, +12.1% 30D
- Strong performer. +12.1% 30D. At RSI 71, approaching overbought. Hold existing; don't add.
ASML — RSI 66, $1,457.69, +1.7% vs SMA, +3.3% 30D
- The cleanest setup in the semis — RSI 66 (not yet overbought), +1.7% above SMA, steady +3.3% 30D. Best entry if semis continue.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry Zone | RSI | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | $148-158 | 15 | Capitulation post-event — verify data freshness first; -16% vs SMA |
| GOOGL | $300-310 | 29 | Alphabet AI/search moat; approaching Feb lows; fresh data |
| AMZN | $200-210 | 34 | AWS + commerce flywheel; still in oversold zone |
| AVGO | $300-315 | 51 | Watch only — if RSI drops to 35-40, activates as entry |
| ASML | $1,420-1,460 | 66 | EUV monopoly; cleanest risk/reward in semis at current RSI |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔍 RESEARCH FIRST | ORCL | RSI 15 = massive signal, but data 3+ weeks stale — confirm before acting |
| ✅ ACCUMULATE | GOOGL | RSI 29, fresh data, -8% 30D, recovery attempt underway |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | AMZN | RSI 34, -13% 30D, thesis intact, still in buy zone |
| 🔒 HOLD | NVDA, MRVL, ASML | Core AI/semi positions — leaders holding well |
| 🔍 WATCH | META, MSFT, AVGO | META/MSFT recovering from oversold; AVGO — watch for deeper dip |
| ⚠️ AVOID | ARM, TSM | RSI 71 — overbought, don't chase 11-12% 30D movers |
| 🔍 NO DATA | AMAT | File missing — need fresh fetch before any action |
What Changed vs 2026-02-22
| Stock | Feb 22 RSI | Feb 26 RSI | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | 26 | 44 | 🟢 +18 pts | Strong bounce from capitulation |
| AMZN | 25 | 34 | 🟢 +9 pts | Recovering, still oversold |
| MSFT | 31 | 56 | 🟢 +25 pts | Major recovery — near SMA |
| GOOGL | 32 | 29 | 🔴 -3 pts | Moved more oversold despite price +1.2% |
| NVDA | 49 | 63 | 🟢 +14 pts | Accelerating, relative strength leader |
| AVGO | 51 | 51 | 🟡 Flat | But -6.2% 7D = watch closely |
| ARM | New | 71 | — | Added: overbought, avoid |
| TSM | New | 71 | — | Added: overbought, avoid |
| ASML | New | 66 | — | Added: clean semi setup |
| ORCL | New | 15 | — | Added: capitulation alert, data stale |
Bottom line: The Feb 22 oversold cluster (META RSI 26, AMZN 25, MSFT 31) has bounced sharply — MSFT recovered +25 RSI points. GOOGL is the laggard, actually getting more oversold. New names ARM/TSM/ASML show the semiconductor side is running hot while cloud/software stays weak. ORCL is the wildcard — RSI 15 is extreme but stale data means verify before acting.
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| GOOGL RSI dropped from 32 → 29 while price rose +1.2% | RSI/price divergence = distribution continuing under the surface; not a clean reversal |
| MSFT recovered from RSI 31 → 56 in 4 days | The fastest recovery in the scan — MSFT is the resilience leader in software |
| ARM + TSM both at RSI 71 with +11-12% 30D | Semiconductor hardware is running well ahead of the broader AI space |
| ORCL RSI 15 with stale data | A potential golden signal OR a stale data artifact — must verify before acting |
| AVGO -6.2% 7D while RSI stays 51 | Price is dropping but RSI not yet in buy zone — watch for RSI 35-40 entry activation |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Acting on ORCL RSI 15 without data verification | Stale data (Feb 3) = 3+ week-old signal. Verify current price before any action. |
| Chasing ARM/TSM at RSI 71 | These have already run +11-12% — momentum can reverse quickly at overbought levels |
| Assuming GOOGL is recovering because 7D +1.2% | RSI actually fell from 32 → 29 despite the price uptick — not confirmed reversal |
Open Questions
- What caused ORCL -20% 30D and -12.6% 7D? Earnings miss? Guidance cut? Validates/invalidates thesis.
- Why is GOOGL RSI declining even as price recovers — is there hidden selling pressure?
- AMAT data missing — need fresh fetch. Where does Applied Materials sit in the semi equipment cycle?
- Will AVGO -6.2% 7D extend into a deeper pullback (entry zone) or stabilize here?
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.