AI Scan
AI Scan
Broad AI selloff: NVDA down -6.6% in 7 days (RSI 41), GOOGL at RSI 36 approaching oversold, AMD at RSI 33 in buy zone — while quantum plays (IONQ, RGTI, SOUN, BBAI) are in full capitulation with RSIs of 14-22 and 30D losses of 30-56%. PLTR is the lone bright spot at RSI 59, +14% in 7 days.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 RISK-OFF ACROSS AI — Large-cap AI down broadly: NVDA -6.6% 7D, GOOGL -2.4% 7D, AMD -10.7% 7D. Small speculative AI (IONQ -29.6% 7D, RGTI -24.5% 7D) in free fall. Market is rotating out of AI risk across the board. |
| Leaders | PLTR (+14.3% 7D, RSI 59), META (+2.5% 7D, RSI 42), MSFT (+3.8% 7D, RSI 44) |
| Laggards | IONQ (-29.6% 7D, RSI 22), RGTI (-24.5% 7D, RSI 20), SOUN (-19.1% 7D, RSI 15), BBAI (-26.1% 7D, RSI 22) |
| Key insight | Two distinct worlds: megacap AI (NVDA/GOOGL/AMZN) selling off but thesis intact, quantum/voice AI (IONQ/RGTI/SOUN) in capitulation with data that may be stale (Feb 5). PLTR is defying gravity — insider selling at $4.7B was flagged 2/26; stock has since surged +14%. |
Price Table (Validated 2026-03-03)
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $180.05 | 41 | $185.27 | -2.8% | -6.6% | -1.8% | 🟡 Below SMA, approaching oversold |
| AMD | $191.02 | 33 | $206.06 | -7.3% | -10.7% | -12.2% | 🟢 Oversold — buy zone |
| MSFT | $403.94 | 44 | $400.38 | +0.9% | +3.8% | -15.8% | 🟡 Above SMA, recovering |
| GOOGL | $303.53 | 36 | $314.15 | -3.4% | -2.4% | -4.4% | 🟢 Approaching oversold |
| META | $655.08 | 42 | $656.28 | -0.2% | +2.5% | -0.9% | 🟡 At SMA, neutral |
| AMZN | $208.73 | 52 | $210.16 | -0.7% | +0.1% | -8.9% | 🟡 Near SMA, stabilizing |
| AAPL | $263.61 | 42 | $268.58 | -1.9% | -3.1% | -7.1% | 🟡 Below SMA |
| PLTR | $147.22 | 59 | $136.98 | +7.5% | +14.3% | -17.3% | 🟡 Above SMA, recovering strong |
| AI | $11.69 | 44 | $12.36 | -5.4% | +7.1% | -27.3% | 🟡 Below SMA (data: Feb 9) |
| BBAI | $4.08 | 22 | $5.67 | -28.1% | -26.1% | -27.9% | 🔴 Capitulation (data: Feb 5) |
| SOUN | $7.35 | 15 | $10.01 | -26.5% | -19.1% | -34.6% | 🔴 Extreme capitulation (data: Feb 5) |
| IONQ | $30.43 | 22 | $45.26 | -32.8% | -29.6% | -47.0% | 🔴 Capitulation (data: Feb 5) |
| RGTI | $14.98 | 20 | $22.26 | -32.7% | -24.5% | -56.4% | 🔴 Capitulation (data: Feb 5) |
Note: BBAI, SOUN, IONQ, RGTI data is from Feb 5 — ~4 weeks stale. Current prices may be materially different.
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI < 25) — Falling Knife Territory
All four are speculative plays with stale data (Feb 5). Caution: prices may have continued falling.
Oversold (RSI 25–40) — Potential Entry Zone
Neutral (RSI 40–60) — Watch Closely
- NVDA RSI 41 — approaching oversold from neutral; was a leader
- AAPL RSI 42 — consumer device exposure, below SMA
- META RSI 42 — at SMA, stabilizing after prior bounce
- MSFT RSI 44 — above SMA despite -15.8% 30D; showing strength
- AMZN RSI 52 — most stable megacap; AWS thesis intact
- AI (C3.ai) RSI 44 — stale data caveat
- PLTR RSI 59 — relative strength standout; well above SMA
Strong (RSI 60+)
- None in this scan today — no AI name is overbought
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry Zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| AMD | $185–195 | RSI 33, -7.3% below SMA, -12.2% 30D. PC + data center GPU play. AMD gaining market share. Entry zone now. |
| GOOGL | $295–308 | RSI 36 and falling toward 2/26 levels of RSI 29. Alphabet AI/search moat intact. Cloud acceleration thesis. |
| NVDA | $170–180 | RSI 41, approaching oversold. Blackwell ramp intact. Any further weakness below $175 is a strong DCA zone. |
| MSFT | $395–405 | RSI 44, above SMA despite -15.8% 30D. Azure AI copilot narrative intact. Strong relative performance. |
| PLTR | N/A | RSI 59, +7.5% above SMA — do NOT chase. Thesis intact but extended relative to peers. Wait for RSI <45. |
| IONQ/RGTI/SOUN | Avoid | RSI 15-22, stale data, no clear floor. These are falling knives — thesis unclear at current prices. |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 🟢 | ✅ Strong Buy | RSI 33, -7.3% below SMA. Semiconductor thesis intact. This is the entry zone. |
| GOOGL | 🟢 | 📈 Accumulate | RSI 36, approaching the 2/26 RSI 29 oversold low. Alphabet AI moat unchanged. |
| NVDA | 🟡 | 📈 Accumulate | RSI 41, -2.8% below SMA. Core AI position — DCA on weakness. |
| MSFT | 🟡 | 🔒 Hold | RSI 44 but above SMA — showing relative strength vs peers at -15.8% 30D. |
| AMZN | 🟡 | 🔒 Hold | RSI 52, most stable megacap in the group. AWS flywheel intact. |
| META | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | RSI 42, at SMA. Recovered from prior RSI 26 lows. Watch for SMA reclaim. |
| AAPL | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | RSI 42, below SMA, -7.1% 30D. Not oversold yet. Wait for RSI <35. |
| PLTR | 🟡 | ⚠️ Avoid | RSI 59, +14.3% 7D — don't chase. Wait for pullback to RSI <45. |
| AI (C3.ai) | 🟡 | ⏳ Waiting | RSI 44, stale data. Need fresh data before acting. |
| BBAI | 🔴 | ❌ Don't Buy | RSI 22, -28% below SMA, stale data. Falling knife. |
| SOUN | 🔴 | ❌ Don't Buy | RSI 15, -26.5% below SMA. Extreme distress. No clear floor. |
| IONQ | 🔴 | ❌ Don't Buy | RSI 22, -47% 30D. Quantum de-rating continues. Wait for stabilization. |
| RGTI | 🔴 | ❌ Don't Buy | RSI 20, -56.4% 30D. Capitulation territory, stale data. |
What Changed vs 2026-02-26
| Stock | Feb 26 RSI | Mar 3 RSI | Change | Feb 26 Price | Mar 3 Price | 7D Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 63 | 41 | 🔴 -22 pts | $185.57 | $180.05 | -3.0% |
| GOOGL | 29 | 36 | 🟢 +7 pts | $306.33 | $303.53 | -0.9% |
| AMZN | 34 | 52 | 🟢 +18 pts | $206.73 | $208.73 | +1.0% |
| META | 44 | 42 | 🟡 -2 pts | $656.98 | $655.08 | -0.3% |
| MSFT | 56 | 44 | 🔴 -12 pts | $401.58 | $403.94 | +0.6% |
| PLTR | ~35 | 59 | 🟢 +24 pts | ~$128 | $147.22 | +14.9% |
| AMD | 33 | 33 | 🟡 Flat | ~$190 | $191.02 | +0.5% |
Key shift: NVDA lost 22 RSI points since 2/26 — the prior AI leader is now approaching oversold. PLTR is the massive reversal: from deep selloff territory to RSI 59 in 5 days. AMZN recovered strongly (RSI 34 → 52). MSFT lost 12 RSI points but held its SMA. GOOGL bounced slightly from prior RSI 29 lows.
The Gold
Key Discoveries:
- PLTR defied the AI selloff completely: +14.3% in 7 days to RSI 59 while NVDA dropped 22 RSI points simultaneously — suggests PLTR is trading on defense/gov AI narrative separately from consumer AI
- NVDA's RSI drop from 63 → 41 in 5 days is the sharpest decline among megacap AI — Blackwell supply constraints or macro fears may be accelerating the rotation
- SOUN at RSI 15 with -34.6% 30D is the loudest distress signal in the scan, but the thesis (voice AI) is unclear and data is stale
Mistakes to Avoid:
Open Questions:
Related
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