Market Status Report

Article

Market Status Report

Regime: RISK-OFF ACCELERATING. VOO RSI 39 (collapsed from 58 in 5 days, below SMA). VIXY RSI 65 (spiked from 45 -- the 2/26 "cooling" was a head fake). GLD $468 (+21% 30D, RSI 52 = real institutional accumulation). TLT bid. Triple safety signal (VIXY + GLD + TLT rising simultaneously). 23 entry zones active (6 extreme, 9 oversold, 8 approaching). ASAN golden signal 4th scan but stale data trap cost all 3 strategies. Insiders selling in 41 stocks, buying only 3. Do NOT add risk aggressively.


Market Weather

Indicator Level RSI vs SMA Signal Note
VOO (S&P 500) $625.50 ~39 Below SMA 🔴 Breaking down RSI collapsed 58->39 in 5 days. Watch $610-620 support.
QQQ (Nasdaq) $601.49 43 -0.9% below SMA ($607) 🟡 Weakening Below SMA, RSI 57->43. Tech under pressure.
VIXY (VIX) $29.53 ~65 Above SMA 🔴 Fear surging Spiked from RSI 45 (02/26) to 65. Head fake confirmed.
GLD (Gold) $468.04 52 +0.7% above SMA ($465) 🟢 Safe haven bid +21% 30D. RSI only 52 after massive run = structural, not speculative.
TLT (Bonds) $89.43 ~61 Above SMA 🟡 Defensive bid Pulled back from RSI 78 (02/26). Still defensive.
EEM (EM) $60.55 69 +2.7% above SMA ($59) 🟢 Outperforming EM leading US equities. Data stale (02/09). China stimulus bid.

One-liner: Risk-off accelerating -- VOO broke below SMA (RSI 58->39 in 5 days), VIXY surged RSI 45->65 (2/26 cooling was a head fake), GLD +21% 30D with RSI only 52 (institutional accumulation, not speculation). Triple safety signal active. Closest to full correction since Feb selloff began.


Sector Heat Map

Overbought (Don't Chase)

Sector Leaders RSI Range Signal
Energy XLE (RSI 79), CEG (RSI 79), EQIX (87), DLR (83) 79-87 🔴 EXTREME -- tariff/geopolitical bid. Trim at RSI > 80
Dividend ETFs SCHD (90), VYM (87) 87-90 🔴 EXTREME -- institutions hiding in safety
Data Center Power CEG (79), EQIX (87), DLR (83), GEV (63) 63-87 🔴 Nuclear/power theme still extended
Gold / Safe Haven GLD (52 after +21% 30D) 52 🟢 Structural accumulation, not overbought

Oversold (Opportunity Zone)

Sector Leaders RSI Range Signal
Consumer Health HIMS (4), LEGN (8) 4-8 🔴 EXTREME CAPITULATION -- broken theses, avoid
Enterprise Software ASAN (15), ORCL (15), OKTA (28) 15-28 🟢 Deep value, ASAN golden but failed in active strategies
AI Infrastructure AVGO (29), AMD (33), NVDA (41) 29-41 🟢 Rare oversold for mega-caps. AVGO best entry.
Cybersecurity PANW (26), OKTA (28), ZS (~31) 26-31 🟡 Sector-wide selloff creating entries
Home Improvement LOW (25), HD (31) 25-31 🟢 NEW sector-wide entry -- paired play
Life Sciences ISRG (9*), IQV (17*), TMO (31) 9-31 🟡 Deep value but insider selling on ISRG/TMO

Neutral / Recovering

Sector Status
Cloud ETFs WCLD/IGV RSI 45-48, above SMA. Sector floor forming but not confirmed.
SaaS Recovery CRM/NOW RSI 57 (bounced from 24-27). WDAY RSI 40 = last laggard. Window closing.
Big Tech MSFT RSI 44 (at SMA). GOOGL RSI 36 (still weak). AMZN RSI 31 (approaching re-entry).
Semiconductors NVDA RSI 41 (dropped from 63). Semi correction forming entry zones.

Top 5 Opportunities

Rank Ticker Price RSI Entry Zone Conviction Why
1 AVGO $313.78 29 <$320 ✅ Strong Buy Custom AI ASIC monopoly (Google TPU, Meta MTIA). $1.3T at rare oversold. No insider red flags vs peers. Fresh data 03/03. EXECUTED across all 3 strategies.
2 LOW $257.77 25 <$262 ✅ Strong Buy Home improvement leader. Fresh data 03/03. Sector-wide signal (pair with HD). Housing cyclical entry.
3 OKTA $72.52 28 $68-$73 ✅ Strong Buy Identity security leader. Fresh data. Zero-trust = non-negotiable spend. No insider red flags.
4 DDOG $111.77 31 $108-$115 ✅ Strong Buy Observability + AI monitoring. Fresh data. RSI 31 despite +7% 7D bounce = was deeply washed.
5 ORCL $152.95* 15 <$158 ✅ Strong Buy Oracle Cloud hyper-scaling. RSI 15 extreme. DATA STALE (02/03) -- verify before acting. Best A+ bargain score.

Skipped in RISK-OFF: LOW, OKTA, DDOG all strong setups but regime says hold fire until VIXY < 50. Only AVGO was executed as the highest-quality name.


Top Risks

Stop-Loss Proximity

Stock Strategy Entry Stop Current Distance Status
TMO claude-trader $544.19 $462.56 (-15%) $507.81 9.8% above 🟡 CLOSEST -- insiders selling -$308.9M
SNOW claude-trader $170.57 $144.98 (-15%) $165.51 14.2% above 🟡 WATCH -- weakened from last update
ORCL claude-momentum $152.95 $137.66 (-10%) $149.01 8.2% above 🟡 CLOSEST (momentum) -- weak bounce
HIMS yolo $16.30 $13.04 (-20%) $15.82 21.3% above 🟡 WATCH -- thesis broken, RSI 4

Approaching Stop-Loss (bench-signals)

Stock Entry Current Unrealized Status
AMD $216.25 $191.02 -11.7% Next stop-loss candidate (-15% = $183.81)
OKTA $81.64 $72.52 -11.2% Approaching -15% stop ($69.39)
ESTC $59.00 $52.65 -10.8% Collapsed from +2.9% this week

Trim / Exit Candidates

Stock RSI Action
CEG 79 Don't add -- nuclear thesis priced in, wait for pullback
SCHD/VYM 87-90 Do NOT chase -- extreme overbought dividend ETFs
XLE 79 Energy surging on tariff -- trim at RSI > 80

Real Portfolio Alerts

Stock Alert Status
BTC $34 stop (-15%) 🚨 DATA STALE (02/02) -- was -13.9%, may have hit stop. CRITICAL.
NET $151 stop (-15%) 🟢 $178.83 -- 18.4% above stop. Recovered.
AS Stop watch 🟡 -12% 7D drop this week. Still 20.2% above stop.
VOO Support watch 🟡 RSI 39, $610-620 key support. Losing that = deeper correction.

Actions Log

Trades Executed 03/03

Strategy Trade Ticker Price Shares Value Rationale
claude-trader SELL ASAN $7.26 200 $1,452 Stop-loss triggered (-26.7%). Stale data masked collapse.
claude-trader BUY AVGO $313.78 9 $2,824 RSI 29, AI ASIC monopoly, no insider red flags.
claude-momentum SELL ASAN $7.44 400 $2,976 Stop-loss hit (-24.9%). Golden signal failed in risk-off.
claude-momentum BUY AVGO $313.84 15 $4,708 RSI 29, best quality entry in AI infra.
yolo SELL ASAN $7.26 1009 $7,325 Stop-loss triggered (-26.7%). Max-sized golden signal failed.
yolo BUY AVGO $313.78 32 $10,041 RSI 29, $1.3T mega-cap at rare oversold.
bench-signals SELL MDB $252.68 3.0 $752 -24.8% stop (guidance cut blowup).
bench-signals SELL HIMS $15.82 53.6 $848 -15.2% stop (FDA risk + insider selling).
bench-signals BUY LOW $257.77 3.9 $1,000 RSI 25, home improvement oversold.
bench-signals BUY HD $366.57 2.7 $1,000 RSI 31, sector pair play.
bench-signals BUY GIS $44.85 22.3 $1,000 RSI 30, defensive dividend.

New Entry Zones (vs 02/26)

Ticker RSI Entry Zone Change
AVGO 29 <$320 NEW -- AI ASIC monopoly, fresh data
LOW 25 <$262 NEW -- home improvement leader, fresh data
HD 31 <$372 NEW -- sector pair with LOW
OKTA 28 $68-$73 NEW -- identity security, fresh data
DDOG 31 $108-$115 NEW -- observability platform, fresh data
ASML ~43 $1,320-$1,380 NEW -- EUV monopoly approaching zone
V ~40 $308-$318 NEW -- payment rail duopoly approaching
MRVL ~38 $74-$78 NEW -- custom ASIC for hyperscalers

Stop-Loss Events 03/03

Stock Strategy Entry Exit Loss Reason
ASAN claude-trader $9.91 $7.26 -26.7% Stale data (02/02). -32% 30D collapse.
ASAN claude-momentum $9.91 $7.44 -24.9% Stop at $8.92 breached, enforced late.
ASAN yolo $9.91 $7.26 -26.7% Max-sized golden signal failed in risk-off.
MDB bench-signals $336.00 $252.68 -24.8% Guidance cut blew through -15% stop.
HIMS bench-signals $18.66 $15.82 -15.2% FDA risk + insider selling -$184M.

Portfolio Pulse

Leaderboard

Rank Strategy Return Value Cash Positions Trades Today Trend
1 claude-trader +2.15% $102,152 $62,687 (61%) 18 2 (sold ASAN, bought AVGO) Down (was +2.27%)
2 bench-signals -1.0% ~$47,520 -- 46 signals 5 (sold MDB/HIMS, bought LOW/HD/GIS) Down (was -0.1%)
3 claude-momentum -1.15% $98,852 $71,640 (72%) 8 2 (sold ASAN, bought AVGO) Down (was -0.60%)
4 yolo -1.80% $98,198 $51,410 (52%) 7 2 (sold ASAN, bought AVGO) Down (was +0.69%)

Overall: 1 of 4 positive (was 2 of 4). All strategies declined. Claude-trader still leads at +2.15% but lost ground. YOLO hit hardest by ASAN's max-sized loss (-$2,674). All 3 active strategies sold ASAN (stop-loss) and bought AVGO (replacement). Bench-signals closed 2 more losses (MDB, HIMS) and added 3 defensive/cyclical signals. ASAN was the story of the week -- golden signal failed across all portfolios, total ASAN losses: -$4,192 combined.

claude-trader Positions (18) -- $102,152 (+2.15%)

Stock Shares Entry Current P&L % Status
INTU 10 $389.98 $433.35 +$434 +11.1% Leader -- post-earnings gap
CRSP 40 $51.31 $58.04 +$269 +13.1% Gene editing thesis
NOW 19 $102.63 $107.57* +$94 +4.8% Stale 02/26
WDAY 21 $138.57 $143.61 +$106 +3.6% SaaS recovery
MSFT 5 $390.00 $403.95 +$70 +3.6% At SMA
CRM 10 $193.75 $198.15* +$44 +2.3% Stale 02/26
WCLD 70 $27.88 $28.27 +$27 +1.4%
AVGO 9 $313.78 $313.78 $0 0.0% NEW
NFLX 24 $80.78 $80.78* $0 0.0% Stale 02/03
ISRG 4 $476.32 $476.32* $0 0.0% Stale 02/05
ADBE 7 $269.39 $269.39* $0 0.0% Stale 02/05
ORCL 13 $152.95 $152.95* $0 0.0% Stale 02/03
GOOGL 6 $305.72 $303.53 -$13 -0.7%
AMZN 9 $210.10 $208.73 -$12 -0.7%
IGV 25 $85.02 $84.07 -$24 -1.1%
LULU 11 $177.34 $174.27 -$34 -1.7%
SNOW 12 $170.57 $165.51 -$61 -3.0% Weakening
TMO 3 $544.19 $507.81 -$109 -6.7% 9.8% above stop

claude-momentum Positions (8) -- $98,852 (-1.15%)

Stock Shares Entry Current P&L % Status
INTU 8 $392.33 $433.35 +$328 +10.5% Approaching +20% target
SNOW 19 $156.71 $165.79 +$173 +5.8%
AMZN 10 $198.79 $208.73 +$99 +5.0%
WDAY 36 $138.57 $143.61 +$181 +3.6%
CRM 10 $189.97 $196.05 +$61 +3.2%
IGV 35 $82.77 $84.12 +$47 +1.6%
AVGO 15 $313.84 $313.84 $0 0.0% NEW
ORCL 25 $152.95 $149.01 -$99 -2.6% 8.2% above stop

yolo Positions (7) -- $98,198 (-1.80%)

Stock Shares Entry Current P&L % Status
CRSP 100 $51.31 $58.04 +$673 +13.1% Best performer
WDAY 72 $138.57 $143.61 +$363 +3.6% SaaS recovery
ARKK 67 $74.36 $74.36* $0 0.0% Stale 02/02
ORCL 50 $152.95 $152.95* $0 0.0% Stale 02/03
AVGO 32 $313.78 $313.78 $0 0.0% NEW
TQQQ 100 $48.78 $48.10 -$68 -1.4% Leverage drag
HIMS 200 $16.30 $15.82 -$96 -2.9% Broken thesis

bench-signals Top Movers (of 46 open signals)

Top Winners P&L Top Losers P&L
CEG +19.9% AMD -11.7%
CRSP +13.1% OKTA -11.2%
PYPL +11.0% ESTC -10.8%
TAC +10.7% AMZN -9.2%
DPZ +8.8% ZS -8.7%

Closed: MDB -24.8% (guidance cut), HIMS -15.2% (FDA risk). 3 new: LOW, HD, GIS. IMMINENT WIN: CEG at +19.9% -- one tick from +20% target. Would be first closed winner.


Key Numbers

Metric Value Context
Most Oversold HIMS RSI 4 Consumer health, insiders selling -$184M. AVOID.
2nd Most Oversold LEGN RSI 8 Biotech, thesis broken, 3 weeks at RSI < 10. AVOID.
Golden Signal ASAN RSI 15 (4th scan) $8.3M insider buying. Failed in all 3 strategies.
Best New Entry AVGO RSI 29 Executed. AI ASIC monopoly at rare oversold.
Most Overbought SCHD RSI 90 Dividend ETF, institutional hiding
Gold $468.04 (+21% 30D) RSI only 52 = structural accumulation, not speculation
VIXY RSI ~65 (was 45) Head fake confirmed. Fear accelerating.
VOO $625.50 (RSI ~39) Below SMA. Watch $610-620 support.
Entry Zones Active 23 Up from 18 (8 new entries, some bounced out)
Signals (bench) 49 total (46 open, 3 closed) +3 new, 2 closed (MDB, HIMS). 0 wins, 3 losses.
Strategies Positive 1 of 4 Was 2 of 4. Only claude-trader in green.
Best Strategy claude-trader +2.15% Slipped from +2.27% high water mark
CEG (best signal) +19.9% One tick from first WIN at +20%
ASAN (biggest lesson) -$4,192 combined losses Golden signal failed across all strategies
Insider Posture 41 selling, 3 buying Broadest bearish posture in months

What Changed (03/03 vs 02/26)

  • VIXY head fake confirmed: RSI 45 -> 65 in 5 days. The 02/26 "cooling" was NOT an all-clear. VOO simultaneously collapsed RSI 58->39. Risk-off regime is ACCELERATING, not resolving. Triple safety signal now active (VIXY + GLD + TLT all rising). Market regime downgraded from "stabilizing" to "risk-off accelerating."

  • ASAN golden signal failed across all 3 strategies, costing -$4,192 total. Claude-trader -$530 (200 shares), momentum -$988 (400 shares), YOLO -$2,674 (1009 shares). Stale data (last OHLC update 02/02) masked a -32% 30D collapse. The 4th-consecutive golden insider signal could not overcome macro risk-off. Lesson: stale data + rising VIXY = do not enter, regardless of signal quality.

  • All 3 strategies rotated ASAN -> AVGO. Replaced speculative small-cap ($1.4B) with mega-cap AI infrastructure ($1.3T). AVGO at RSI 29 with no insider red flags -- the quality upgrade pattern. Total AVGO deployment: $17,573 (9 + 15 + 32 shares).

  • INTU post-earnings gap to +11.1% -- biggest winner across all portfolios. Recovered from $380 (02/26) to $433.35. Tax season thesis validated. Approaching +20% profit target at $470.80 (momentum strategy). Do not chase.

  • Bench-signals closed 2 more stops: MDB -24.8%, HIMS -15.2%. MDB blew through -15% stop on guidance cut -- the worst-case for oversold entries. HIMS confirmed broken thesis. Total realized losses now -$600 on 3 signals. But CEG at +19.9% is ONE TICK from first win.

  • 8 new entry zones identified: AVGO (RSI 29, executed), LOW (RSI 25), HD (RSI 31), OKTA (RSI 28), DDOG (RSI 31), ASML (~43), V (~40), MRVL (~38). Home improvement (LOW + HD) is a new sector-wide signal. Semi correction deepening (NVDA 63->41, AMD 57->33).

  • Portfolio leaderboard compressed. Claude-trader +2.15% still leads but slipped. All others negative. YOLO took the biggest hit (-1.80%) from max-sized ASAN loss. Only 1 of 4 strategies positive (was 2 of 4). Overall mood: defensive, cash-heavy, waiting for VIXY < 50.


Generated 2026-03-03. See: scans/ for detail, actions/ for trades, deep-dives/ for research. Previous status archived to _archive/2026-02-26-status.md.

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/trend figures): desk pre-computed watchlist summaries as of the artifact date — *.
9 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.