Market Status Report

Article

Market Status Report

Regime: TENTATIVE RECOVERY — VOO RSI 48 (reclaimed SMA area), QQQ RSI 42 (below SMA). VIXY RSI 62 unchanged (fear persistent). 14 entry zones active. ASAN sole GOLDEN signal. ORCL RSI 15 freshest extreme. Gold breaking out.


Market Weather

Indicator Level RSI Signal Note
VOO (S&P 500) $634.02 48 Neutral Recovered from RSI 40, near SMA
QQQ (Nasdaq) $608.81 42 Below SMA Lagging S&P, growth still weak
VIXY (VIX) $28.31 62 Elevated fear Unchanged from 02/16 — no all-clear
GLD (Gold) $468.62 58 Breaking out Safe-haven demand strong, +5.6% 30D
TLT (Bonds) $89.72 64 Risk-off bid Bonds still attracting flows
EEM (EM) $60.55 69 Outperforming +5.9% 30D, rotation away from US tech

One-liner: Market attempting recovery (VOO RSI 40 to 48) but VIXY stuck at RSI 62 says fear hasn't resolved. Gold breaking out + bonds bid = risk appetite fragile. Tentative, not confirmed. No all-clear until VIXY < RSI 50.


Sector Heat Map

Overbought (Don't Chase)

Sector Leaders RSI Range Signal
Pharma/Defensive JNJ (89), CL (89) 89 Extremely stretched
Networking CSCO (86) 86 Extended
Consumer Staples CLX (80), WMT (78), KO (75), PG (75) 75-80 Crowded
Biotech (select) PHGE (77), TWST (75) 75-77 Sell into strength
Energy XLE (79) 79 Extended

Oversold (Opportunity Zone)

Sector Leaders RSI Range Signal
Consumer Health HIMS (4), PYPL (13) 4-13 EXTREME CAPITULATION
Cloud/SaaS ORCL (15), INTU (18), ASAN (19), WDAY (21), NOW (24) 15-24 MAXIMUM OVERSOLD
Life Sciences ISRG (9), TMO (19) 9-19 Deep value (TMO bounced from RSI 5)
Mega-Cap Tech AMZN (25), META (26), MSFT (31), GOOGL (32) 25-32 Recovery attempt
Cloud ETFs IGV (32), WCLD (33), CLOU (33) 32-33 Capitulation washout
Cybersecurity ZS (23), OKTA (28) 23-28 Oversold

Neutral

Sector Status
Semiconductors Mixed — NVDA RSI 49, AMD RSI 34 lagging
AI Infrastructure CEG RSI 52 recovering, CSCO RSI 86 overextended

Top 5 Opportunities

Rank Ticker Price RSI Entry Zone Conviction Why
1 ASAN $9.91 19 $9-$10 GOLDEN Sole golden signal: RSI 19 + $8.3M insider BUYING. Best risk/reward in universe.
2 ORCL $152.95 15 <$158 Highest NEW extreme. Oracle Cloud hyper-scaling. -20% 30D earnings shock discount. Freshest extreme entry.
3 INTU $380.55 18 <$390 Highest Tax season tailwind imminent. TurboTax monopoly. Deepened from $399 to $381.
4 NOW $102.63 24 <$108 High 99% renewal rate. -31% 30D unchanged. IT workflow monopoly at extreme discount.
5 AMZN $210.11 25 $205-$215 High AWS AI capex beneficiary. Bouncing off RSI 17 lows.

Speculative: PYPL $40.29 (RSI 13, -30% 30D). HIMS $15.63 (RSI 4, most extreme but -$186.5M insider selling = avoid adding).


Top Risks

Stop-Loss Proximity

Stock Strategy Entry Stop Current Distance Status
HIMS yolo $16.30 $13.04 (-20%) $15.63 19.9% above WATCH — closest to stop
TMO claude-trader $544.19 $462.56 (-15%) $510.93 10.4% above Watch
IGV claude-trader $85.02 $72.27 (-15%) $80.78 11.8% above Watch
INTU claude-momentum $392.33 $353.10 (-10%) $380.55 7.8% above MONITOR
CRM claude-momentum $189.97 $170.97 (-10%) $185.16 8.3% above Watch
IGV claude-momentum $82.77 $74.49 (-10%) $80.78 8.5% above Watch

Overbought Trim Candidates

Stock RSI Action
PHGE 77 Sell into strength — +176% parabolic
TWST 75 Hold but don't add
JNJ 89 Trim if holding
CL 89 Don't add
CSCO 86 Don't chase

Real Portfolio Alerts

Stock Alert Status
BE $140 stop (-15%) $147.55, -10.6% from entry. Above stop — monitor
WMT $109 stop (-15%) $122.99, -4.0%. Above stop
PHGE RSI 77 parabolic Sell into strength

Actions Log

New Entry Zones (vs 02/16)

Ticker RSI Entry Zone Change
ORCL 15 <$158 NEW — freshest extreme entry this cycle
PYPL 13 <$42 NEW — Venmo/Braintree turnaround
SAP 24 <$202 NEW — global ERP leader -18% 30D
META 26 $640-$660 NEW — Llama AI optionality, only +7% 30D name
PINS 21 $20-$23 NEW — social platform, insider selling concern

Improved Since 02/16

  • VOO: RSI 40 to 48 (recovered near SMA)
  • QQQ: RSI 37 to 42 (partial recovery)
  • AMZN: RSI 17 to 25 (bouncing, -8.6% to -8.6% signal)
  • TMO: RSI 5 to 19 (bounced from extreme)
  • SHOP: RSI 35 to 46 (bounced from -14.6% to -4.4% signal)

Worsened Since 02/16

  • HIMS: RSI 10 to 4 (deepened, insiders fleeing)
  • WDAY: -16.7% to -20.5% (worst signal, deepening)
  • INTU: -7.6% to -12.0% (signal worsened)

Trades Executed Today

Strategy Trade Ticker Price Shares Value Rationale
claude-trader BUY ASAN $9.91 200 $1,982 Golden signal: RSI 19 + insider buying
claude-trader BUY ORCL $152.95 13 $1,988 NEW RSI 15 extreme, Oracle Cloud
claude-trader ADD INTU $380.55 5 $1,903 DCA from $399 to $381, RSI 18
claude-momentum BUY ASAN $9.91 400 $3,964 Golden signal, largest momentum bet
claude-momentum BUY ORCL $152.95 25 $3,824 RSI 15 extreme, freshest entry
claude-momentum ADD INTU $380.55 3 $1,142 DCA, RSI 18, tax catalyst
yolo BUY ORCL $152.95 50 $7,648 RSI 15 YOLO oversold, biggest bet
bench-signals ADD PYPL, ORCL, SAP, PINS, META various -- $5,000 5 new mechanical signals

Portfolio Pulse

Leaderboard

Rank Strategy Return Value Cash Positions Trend
1 claude-trader +1.77% $101,773 $66,969 17 Slight dip (was +1.86%)
2 claude-momentum +1.25% $101,250 $78,360 7 Turned positive (was -0.47%)
3 yolo +0.21% $100,209 $74,101 5 Improving (was +0.14%)
4 bench-signals -0.5% ~$41,789 -- 42 signals Declined (was -0.3%)

Overall: 3 of 4 positive (momentum flipped positive for first time). Claude-trader still leads at +1.77%. Bench-signals drifted further negative as WDAY/HIMS drag. All strategies deployed ASAN/ORCL today.

claude-trader Positions (17) -- $101,773 (+1.77%)

Stock Shares Entry Current P&L % Status
LULU 11 $177.34 $187.30 +$110 +5.6% Leader
CRSP 40 $51.31 $53.46 +$86 +4.2%
GOOGL 6 $305.72 $314.98 +$56 +3.0%
MSFT 5 $390.00 $397.23 +$36 +1.9%
SNOW 12 $170.57 $172.50 +$23 +1.1%
AMZN 9 $210.10 $210.11 +$0 0.0%
NFLX 24 $80.78 $80.78 $0 0.0%
NOW 19 $102.63 $102.63 $0 0.0%
ISRG 4 $476.32 $476.32 $0 0.0%
ADBE 7 $269.39 $269.39 $0 0.0%
ASAN 200 $9.91 $9.91 $0 0.0% NEW
ORCL 13 $152.95 $152.95 $0 0.0% NEW
WCLD 70 $27.88 $27.28 -$42 -2.2%
INTU 10 $389.98 $380.55 -$94 -2.4%
CRM 10 $193.75 $185.16 -$86 -4.4%
IGV 25 $85.02 $80.78 -$106 -5.0% Watch
TMO 3 $544.19 $510.93 -$100 -6.1% Watch

claude-momentum Positions (7) -- $101,250 (+1.25%)

Stock Shares Entry Current P&L % Status
SNOW 19 $156.71 $172.50 +$299 +10.1% Leader
AMZN 10 $198.79 $210.11 +$113 +5.7%
ASAN 400 $9.91 $9.91 $0 0.0% NEW
ORCL 25 $152.95 $152.95 $0 0.0% NEW
IGV 35 $82.77 $80.78 -$70 -2.4%
CRM 10 $189.97 $185.16 -$48 -2.5%
INTU 8 $392.33 $380.55 -$94 -3.0% MONITOR

yolo Positions (5) -- $100,209 (+0.21%)

Stock Shares Entry Current P&L % Status
CRSP 100 $51.31 $53.46 +$215 +4.2% Leader
TQQQ 100 $48.78 $50.06 +$128 +2.6%
ARKK 67 $74.36 $74.36 $0 0.0%
ORCL 50 $152.95 $152.95 $0 0.0% NEW
HIMS 200 $16.30 $15.63 -$134 -4.1% WATCH

bench-signals Top Movers (of 42 signals)

Top Winners P&L Top Losers P&L
AS +16.6% WDAY -20.5%
TAC +12.5% HIMS -16.2%
CEG +8.8% INTU -12.0%
AVGO +8.0% AMZN -8.6%
NKE +7.2% AMD -7.4%

Stop-Loss Proximity (within 5%)

  • INTU (claude-momentum): 7.8% above $353.10 stop -- closest active watch
  • CRM (claude-momentum): 8.3% above $170.97 stop -- monitoring
  • IGV (claude-momentum): 8.5% above $74.49 stop -- monitoring
  • HIMS (yolo): 19.9% above $13.04 stop -- approaching zone

Key Numbers

Metric Value Context
Most Oversold HIMS RSI 4 Consumer health, insiders fleeing
2nd Most Oversold ISRG RSI 9 Surgical robotics, unchanged
3rd Most Oversold PYPL RSI 13 NEW -- payments turnaround
Most Overbought JNJ RSI 89 Defensive rotation extreme
Gold $468.62 Breaking out, +5.6% 30D
Entry Zones Active 14 Narrowed from 20 (some bounced out)
Exit Alerts Active 6 Real portfolio alerts
Deep Dives Current 10 Refreshed this cycle
Ideas Tracked 3 ARK, pullback buys, cattle disease
Paper Signals 42 +5 new today
Strategies Positive 3 of 4 Momentum flipped positive

What Changed (02/22 vs 02/16)

  • Market regime shift: capitulation to tentative recovery. VOO RSI 40 to 48 (near SMA), QQQ RSI 37 to 42. Indices bounced off Feb lows. But VIXY RSI 62 unchanged = fear hasn't resolved.
  • Momentum strategy flipped positive (+1.25%) for first time, up from -0.47%. SNOW +10.1% carrying, AMZN +5.7% confirming. 3 of 4 strategies now positive.
  • ASAN golden signal acted on across all 3 active strategies. ORCL (RSI 15, NEW extreme) deployed in all 3 strategies. INTU DCA'd deeper.
  • TMO bounced from RSI 5 to RSI 19 -- life sciences recovering from extreme. SHOP bounced from -14.6% to -4.4% in bench-signals, validating oversold thesis.
  • HIMS deepened to RSI 4 (was RSI 10) with -$186.5M insider selling. Most extreme oversold in universe but red flag prevents buying.
  • 5 new bench-signals added (PYPL RSI 13, ORCL RSI 15, SAP RSI 24, PINS RSI 21, META RSI 26). Total signals: 42.
  • Gold breaking out at $468.62 (+5.6% 30D). Safe-haven demand + equity bounce = fragile risk appetite. No all-clear until VIXY < RSI 50.

Generated after full scan Phase 1-6. See: scans/ for detail, actions/ for trades, deep-dives/ for research.

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/trend figures): desk pre-computed watchlist summaries as of the artifact date — *.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.