Bargain Bin Scan
Bargain Bin Scan
The bargain bin is overflowing with SaaS wreckage — TEAM (-52% 3M), ASAN (-52%), INTU (-35%), WDAY (-36%), NOW (-33%) — but only ASAN has insider buying to back the discount. Most "bargains" are falling knives with death crosses and insiders heading for the exits.
Quick Snapshot
| Overall Signal | 🔴 Deep discount territory but few true bargains — death crosses dominate, insider selling widespread |
| Best Quality Discount | ASAN 🟢 RSI 33.6, -52% 3M + $8.3M insider buying — only bargain with smart money support |
| Deepest Discounts | EOSE (-60.9% 3M), TEAM (-52.2%), ASAN (-51.9%), U (-58.0%), HUBS (-30.4%) |
| Avoid | EOSE (insiders selling into -44% dip), ZM (insiders selling -$210M into weakness) |
| Filter | RSI < 40 AND vsSma20 < 0, ranked by quality x discount |
Bargain Filter Results
Criteria: RSI < 40 AND below SMA20. Ranked by quality x discount.
Tier 1: High Quality x Deep Discount
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | SMA50 | vs SMA50 | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wk Hi% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCOM | $135.20 | 35.7 | $139.97 | -3.4% | $152.05 | -11.1% | strong-down | -2.1% | -3.5% | -24.9% | -34.4% | 🟡 |
| ISRG | $485.85 | 39.6 | $495.86 | -2.0% | $521.04 | -6.8% | down | -3.2% | -2.1% | -11.2% | -19.6% | 🟡 |
| ZS | $153.73 | 39.2 | $160.71 | -4.3% | $190.29 | -19.2% | strong-down | +0.3% | -10.1% | -36.5% | -54.4% | 🔴 |
QCOM is the highest-quality bargain — Qualcomm at RSI 36, -24.9% 3M with death cross. Mobile chip cycle weakness but the AI/automotive pivot thesis is intact. $135 is near multi-year support levels.
ISRG (Intuitive Surgical) at RSI 40, -6.8% below SMA50. Surgical robotics monopoly in a temporary downdraft. Not deeply oversold yet but approaching buy zone.
ZS (Zscaler) is the riskiest quality name — RSI 39 but -41.5% below SMA200 with death cross. Zero trust cybersecurity leader being repriced aggressively. The -54.4% from 52wk high is extreme for a market leader.
Tier 2: Growth at Steep Discount
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | SMA50 | vs SMA50 | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wk Hi% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASAN | $7.07 | 33.6 | $7.41 | -4.6% | $9.74 | -27.4% | strong-down | -1.5% | -5.6% | -51.9% | -62.8% | 🟢 |
| TEAM | $78.01 | 37.1 | $79.78 | -2.2% | $111.79 | -30.2% | strong-down | +1.1% | -10.3% | -52.2% | -67.8% | 🔴 |
| ESTC | $51.85 | 36.5 | $56.97 | -9.0% | $65.47 | -20.8% | strong-down | -0.8% | -16.2% | -34.6% | -50.0% | 🔴 |
| MDB | $270.46 | 34.7 | $313.92 | -13.8% | $361.55 | -25.2% | down | +9.0% | -25.8% | -35.7% | -39.2% | 🔴 |
| RBLX | $58.83 | 34.4 | $65.52 | -10.2% | $71.54 | -17.8% | strong-down | -1.5% | -14.7% | -37.6% | -55.2% | 🔴 |
| SOFI | $18.29 | 35.8 | $19.10 | -4.2% | $22.80 | -19.8% | strong-down | +5.6% | -11.0% | -32.4% | -32.5% | 🔴 |
ASAN is the ONLY stock in this tier with insider buying (+$8.3M). At RSI 33.6, -52% 3M, and insiders accumulating, this is the best risk/reward in the bargain bin. Death cross is the risk.
TEAM (Atlassian) at -52.2% 3M and -67.8% from 52wk high is the most destroyed SaaS name. RSI 37 with -30.2% below SMA50 — this is capitulation territory but NO insider buying to confirm a bottom.
MDB (MongoDB) bounced +9.0% on the week but still -25.8% on 30D. The bounce doesn't erase the damage — -13.8% below SMA20 and -25.2% below SMA50.
Tier 3: Speculative / Damaged
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | SMA50 | vs SMA50 | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wk Hi% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EOSE | $6.43 | 31.4 | $8.73 | -26.4% | $12.32 | -47.8% | down | -4.9% | -44.5% | -60.9% | -67.6% | ❌ |
EOSE is NOT a bargain — it's a broken stock. Down -60.9% 3M, -26.4% below SMA20, AND insiders are selling $22M into the dip. This is the definition of a falling knife.
Near-Miss: RSI < 40 but ABOVE SMA20 (not in filter)
These stocks are oversold but bouncing — they missed the vs SMA20 < 0 filter:
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 30D% | 3M% | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBER | $72.36 | 39.4 | -1.3% | +1.9% | -15.3% | Barely qualifies, weak-down |
| DIS | $101.32 | 37.2 | -3.3% | -6.3% | -8.5% | Entertainment weakness |
| FSLR | $197.80 | 37.5 | -8.0% | -13.2% | -27.5% | Solar sector pain |
| AFRM | $49.77 | 40.1 | -1.7% | -12.0% | -27.9% | Fintech oversold |
Non-Qualifying: RSI < 30 (Capitulation — separate category)
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 30D% | 3M% | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNTX | $83.89 | 23.3 | -20.7% | -23.3% | -12.6% | mRNA peer in freefall — no insider buying |
| NKE | $55.72 | 28.8 | -8.8% | -10.0% | -17.2% | Athletic icon at multi-year lows |
| LOW | $246.81 | 29.9 | -7.8% | -14.0% | -0.1% | Housing proxy, golden cross intact |
These are below the RSI < 30 threshold — capitulation territory. LOW is the most interesting because it still has a golden cross (SMA50 > SMA200), suggesting the long-term trend isn't broken despite the selloff.
Quality x Discount Ranking
| Rank | Stock | Quality | Discount | Insider Signal | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ASAN | Medium | Extreme (-52% 3M) | +$8.3M BUYING | Best bargain — smart money agrees |
| 2 | QCOM | High | Deep (-25% 3M) | Selling | Quality at discount — watch for insider buying |
| 3 | ISRG | Very High | Moderate (-11% 3M) | Selling | Monopoly position, not deep enough yet |
| 4 | LOW | High | Deep (-14% 30D) | Selling | Golden cross intact, housing proxy |
| 5 | ZS | High | Extreme (-37% 3M) | Selling | Zero trust leader but trend is awful |
| 6 | TEAM | Medium | Extreme (-52% 3M) | Selling | No insider support at these levels |
| 7 | MDB | Medium | Deep (-36% 3M) | Selling | Database leader getting repriced |
| 8 | ESTC | Medium | Deep (-35% 3M) | -$555M selling | Heavy insider selling — avoid |
| 9 | RBLX | Low | Extreme (-38% 3M) | -$958M selling | Insiders fleeing — avoid |
| 10 | EOSE | Speculative | Destroyed (-61% 3M) | -$22M selling into dip | Broken — do not touch |
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry Zone | RSI | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASAN | $6.50 - $7.50 | 33.6 | Only bargain bin stock with insider buying — small position size, high conviction on value |
| QCOM | $125 - $135 | 35.7 | Wait for RSI < 30 or insider buying confirmation; Qualcomm's AI/auto pivot thesis |
| ISRG | < $480 | 39.6 | Surgical robotics monopoly — buy on RSI < 35 with tight stop |
| LOW | $240 - $250 | 29.9 | RSI near 30 with golden cross intact — housing cycle timing play |
| ZS | < $145 | 39.2 | Zero trust leader at 54% discount — only if you have 12-month horizon |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | ASAN | Only bargain with insider buying confirmation; -52% 3M |
| 🔍 WATCH | QCOM, ISRG, LOW | Quality at discount but no insider support yet |
| 🔍 WATCH | ZS, TEAM, MDB | Deep discounts but death crosses + no insider buying |
| ⚠️ AVOID | ESTC, SOFI, RBLX | Heavy insider selling into weakness |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | EOSE | Selling into dip + broken thesis + -61% 3M |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | ZM | Insiders dumping -$210M into -17% monthly dip |
What Changed (vs previous scan)
| Signal | Previous | Current | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASAN | RSI ~19 | RSI 33.6 | RSI improved but still in bargain territory |
| EOSE | Not tracked | -61% 3M, insiders selling | NEW: worst stock in the bargain bin |
| MDB | Not tracked | RSI 34.7, -25.8% 30D | NEW: MongoDB crash entering bargain territory |
| TEAM | Not tracked | RSI 37.1, -52.2% 3M | NEW: Atlassian capitulation |
| BNTX | Not tracked | RSI 23.3 — deepest oversold | NEW: mRNA crash at capitulation level |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| ASAN is the ONLY bargain bin stock with insider buying | In a bin full of falling knives, insider buying is the one signal that differentiates a real bargain from a trap |
| 9 of 10 bargain bin stocks have net insider selling | Insiders broadly don't think their own stocks are cheap yet — be skeptical of "discount" narratives |
| SaaS names (TEAM, MDB, ESTC, WDAY, NOW) dominate the bargain bin | This is a sector-wide re-rating, not stock-specific — the entire cloud/SaaS premium is being repriced |
| LOW has golden cross intact despite RSI 30 | This is the only "bargain" where the long-term trend structure isn't broken — potential mean reversion candidate |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Buying "cheap" without insider confirmation | Price decline alone is not a buy signal — need insider buying or clear technical reversal |
| Treating all SaaS selloffs as temporary | TEAM -52%, ASAN -52%, INTU -35% — this is structural repricing, not a dip |
| Ignoring "selling into dip" pattern | EOSE and ZM insiders selling into oversold = thesis broken, not "discounted" |
Open Questions
- Is the SaaS repricing (TEAM, MDB, ESTC all -30% to -52%) cyclical or structural?
- Will ASAN's insider buying be vindicated or is the business deteriorating faster than insiders realize?
- LOW with golden cross at RSI 30 — is housing about to bottom or continue lower?
- BNTX at RSI 23 while MRNA +89% 3M — what explains the mRNA divergence?
Scan generated: 2026-03-11 | Data from pre-computed summaries (bargain-bin). Filter: RSI < 40 AND vsSma20 < 0.
Related
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