Bargain Bin Scan
Bargain Bin Scan
Market-wide oversold sweep: 20+ quality names with RSI < 40 and below SMA20 — NKE at RSI 26 leads the capitulation parade, joined by QCOM, LULU, ZM, and payment giants V/MA; this is "everything on sale" territory but ZM and EOSE are traps — insiders selling into these dips.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 BROAD OVERSOLD — SELECTIVE ENTRY ZONE — 20+ quality stocks at RSI <40 + below SMA20; macro risk-off driving indiscriminate selling |
| Deepest oversold | NKE (RSI 26), TMO (RSI 27.5), QCOM (RSI 31.4), LULU (RSI 31.5), MDB (RSI 32.9) |
| Quality at discount | V (RSI 34), MA (RSI 34.3), ISRG (RSI 37.8), LLY (RSI 40.7), AAPL (RSI 39.1) |
| Traps (insider selling into dip) | ZM (RSI 35 + insiders selling -$210M), EOSE (RSI 30.8 + insiders selling -$22M) |
Filtered Universe: RSI < 40 + Below SMA20 (Ranked by RSI)
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | Trend | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKE | $54.42 | 26 ↓ | -10.4% | -3.6% | -10.4% | -18.8% | strong-down | 🟢 Capitulation | 🔍 Research |
| TMO | $476.70 | 27.5 ↓ | -6.3% | -3.3% | -6.5% | -16.6% | down | 🟢 Near Capitulation | ✅ Watch Entry |
| QCOM | $131.50 | 31.4 ↓ | -5.6% | -3.5% | -4.4% | -25.8% | strong-down | 🟢 Deep Oversold | 🔍 Research |
| LULU | $160.16 | 31.5 ↓ | -8.8% | -5.7% | -5.5% | -21.9% | strong-down | 🟢 Deep Oversold | 🔍 Research |
| ASAN | $6.97 | 32.7 ↓ | -5.6% | -11.7% | -7.4% | -51.4% | strong-down | 🟢 Capitulation | 🔍 Speculative |
| BNTX | $88.80 | 33.3 ↓ | -14.5% | -10.7% | -16.0% | -6.3% | down | 🟢 Deep Oversold | 🔍 Research |
| VYM | $149.21 | 34 ↓ | -2.8% | -1.4% | -3.5% | +2.9% | weak-down | 🟡 Oversold | 📈 Accumulate |
| V | $306.78 | 34 ↓ | -3.0% | -2.1% | -5.4% | -11.6% | strong-down | 🟢 Quality Oversold | ✅ Watch Entry |
| DIS | $99.73 | 33.6 ↓ | -4.0% | -1.4% | -2.6% | -10.0% | strong-down | 🟡 Oversold | 🔍 Research |
| RBLX | $57.61 | 34.6 ↓ | -10.5% | -10.4% | -8.8% | -34.9% | strong-down | 🔴 Breakdown | ❌ Avoid |
| IWM | $248.62 | 35.3 ↓ | -4.3% | -2.1% | -4.2% | -1.7% | weak-down | 🟡 Approaching Oversold | 🔍 Watch |
| ZM | $75.29 | 35.1 ↓ | -8.1% | -3.5% | -18.4% | -15.9% | down | ⚠️ Insider Selling | ❌ Avoid |
| TEAM | $75.32 | 35.1 ↓ | -3.8% | -7.7% | -12.9% | -53.5% | strong-down | 🔴 Breakdown | ❌ Avoid |
| MA | $498.33 | 34.3 ↓ | -3.5% | -2.0% | -5.5% | -12.7% | strong-down | 🟢 Quality Oversold | ✅ Watch Entry |
| SOFI | $17.79 | 33.9 ↓ | -5.5% | -3.3% | -7.8% | -34.8% | strong-down | 🔴 Breakdown | ❌ Avoid |
| AFRM | $47.11 | 36.5 ↓ | -5.2% | -2.4% | -5.3% | -30.0% | strong-down | 🔴 Breakdown | ❌ Avoid |
| IBKR | $66.50 | 37.7 ↓ | -6.5% | +0.3% | -8.9% | +3.8% | weak-down | 🟡 Oversold | 🔍 Research |
| ISRG | $478.70 | 37.8 ↓ | -3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -11.7% | down | 🟡 Approaching Oversold | ✅ Watch Entry |
| ZS | $151.38 | 39.2 ↓ | -5.8% | -4.3% | -11.4% | -36.5% | strong-down | 🔴 Structural Breakdown | ❌ Avoid |
| AAPL | $255.20 | 39.1 ↓ | -3.1% | +0.8% | -2.5% | -8.2% | weak-down | 🟡 Approaching Oversold | 🔍 Watch |
| CRSP | $48.87 | 39.4 ↓ | -11.8% | -13.9% | -0.1% | -13.8% | strong-down | 🟡 Oversold | 🔍 Research |
| FSLR | $197.68 | 38.4 ↓ | -6.9% | +2.3% | -10.3% | -22.4% | down | 🟡 Oversold | 🔍 Research |
| ESTC | $52.52 | 38.6 ↓ | -6.2% | -1.2% | -13.0% | -31.2% | strong-down | 🔴 Structural Breakdown | ❌ Avoid |
| WDAY | $136.05 | 36.5 ↓ | -2.9% | -6.6% | -5.6% | -39.4% | strong-down | 🔴 Structural Breakdown | ❌ Avoid |
Tier Analysis
Tier 1 — Quality Names at Genuine Discount (Best Risk/Reward)
NKE ($54.42, RSI 26, -10.4% below SMA20, -18.8% 3M) The global athletic apparel leader at a 3-year low. RSI 26 is deep capitulation territory. The bull case: Nike's brand is durable, tariff fears are overdone, and this is a cyclical consumer dip on a forever franchise. The bear case: fundamental deterioration in China + wholesale channel, management credibility issues. RSI 26 says the pain is priced — but "it looks cheap" has been wrong before on NKE. Starter position territory if thesis is intact.
TMO ($476.70, RSI 27.5, -6.3% below SMA20, -16.6% 3M) Thermo Fisher is the gold standard life sciences tools company. RSI 27.5 reflects oversold conditions driven by broad institutional selling, not company-specific implosion. -25.9% from 52wk high. When TMO gets to RSI 27, patient buyers historically have been rewarded. No insider buying yet — wait for that confirmation or RSI floor.
V ($306.78, RSI 34, -3.0% below SMA20, -11.6% 3M) Visa at RSI 34 is rare. The payments network is not being disrupted, it's being macro-sold. Death cross in place (SMA50 > SMA200) suggests the pullback has room but the long-term thesis is unimpeachable. Entry zone building.
MA ($498.33, RSI 34.3, -3.5% below SMA20, -12.7% 3M) Same thesis as Visa. Mastercard at RSI 34.3 with -12.7% 3M drawdown is a quality franchise being indiscriminately sold. SMA200 breakdown suggests it could go lower, but building a position here has historically worked on 12-month horizon.
ISRG ($478.70, RSI 37.8, -3.3% below SMA20, -11.7% 3M) Intuitive Surgical monopoly in robotic surgery. Down 11.7% over 3 months, approaching oversold. Slow-moving institutions rotating out of high-multiple healthcare. The procedure growth moat remains intact.
Tier 2 — Quality Names with Higher Risk
QCOM ($131.50, RSI 31.4, -5.6% below SMA20, -25.8% 3M) Qualcomm in deep oversold territory with genuine structural concerns (ARM competition, China exposure). The -25.8% 3M move is severe. If the smartphone cycle is bottoming, this is cheap. If ARM displaces further, it's a value trap. Speculative at RSI 31.
LULU ($160.16, RSI 31.5, -8.8% below SMA20, -21.9% 3M) Lululemon at 3-year lows. Premium athleisure brand with real concerns about slowing growth and CEO transition. RSI 31.5 with -54% from 52wk high is extreme compression. The franchise value is intact but the multiple reset is still happening.
BNTX ($88.80, RSI 33.3, -14.5% below SMA20, -16.0% 30D) BioNTech down hard on post-COVID portfolio transition concerns. -32.4% from 52wk high. RSI 33. The non-COVID pipeline (cancer vaccines) is the long-term thesis. Speculative but the cash position provides a floor.
LLY ($976.59, RSI 40.7, -4.1% below SMA20, -5.8% 30D) Eli Lilly at RSI 40.7 with -13.9% from 52wk high. The GLP-1 thesis is intact. The -4.8B insider selling is concerning but manageable for a mega-cap. Not deep oversold but approaching entry zone for quality. Worth watching as RSI approaches 35.
Tier 3 — Structural Downtrends (Avoid Despite Low RSI)
- ZM — RSI 35, -$209.7M insider selling. Insiders disagree the dip is worth buying.
- EOSE — RSI 30.8, -$21.9M insider selling. Potential thesis failure.
- TEAM — RSI 35.1, -53.5% 3M. Atlassian in free fall. No stabilization.
- ESTC — RSI 38.6, -31.2% 3M, -50% from 52wk high. Elastic in structural breakdown.
- ZS — RSI 39.2, -36.5% 3M, -55.1% from 52wk high. Zscaler death cross + downtrend.
- WDAY — RSI 36.5, -39.4% 3M. Workday losing enterprise contracts.
- SOFI / AFRM — Fintech in broad selloff; not quality anchors.
- RBLX — Consumer digital gaming exposed to macro + monetization struggles.
Entry Zones
EXTREME OVERSOLD (RSI < 28) — Capitulation Territory
| Stock | Current | Zone | RSI | 30D Chg | Source | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKE | $54.42 | <$58 | 26 ↓ | -10.4% | bargain-bin | 🔍 Research | Iconic brand at 3-yr low; tariff/China fears priced in? |
| TMO | $476.70 | <$490 | 27.5 ↓ | -6.5% | bargain-bin | ✅ Watch Entry | Life sciences tools leader; RSI 27.5 historically rewarded |
OVERSOLD (RSI 28–35) — Strong Entry Zone
| Stock | Current | Zone | RSI | 30D Chg | Source | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCOM | $131.50 | $125–135 | 31.4 ↓ | -4.4% | bargain-bin | 🔍 Research | Chips + China; quality franchise at structural risk |
| LULU | $160.16 | $155–165 | 31.5 ↓ | -5.5% | bargain-bin | 🔍 Research | Athleisure selloff; multiple reset in progress |
| BNTX | $88.80 | $85–92 | 33.3 ↓ | -16.0% | bargain-bin | 🔍 Research | Pipeline pivot story; cash provides floor |
| V | $306.78 | $300–310 | 34 ↓ | -5.4% | bargain-bin | ✅ Watch Entry | Visa monopoly at rare oversold; quality forever hold |
| MA | $498.33 | $490–510 | 34.3 ↓ | -5.5% | bargain-bin | ✅ Watch Entry | Same thesis as V; build position |
APPROACHING OVERSOLD (RSI 35–40) — Watch Closely
| Stock | Current | Zone | RSI | 30D Chg | Source | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISRG | $478.70 | $460–485 | 37.8 | 0.0% | bargain-bin | 🔍 Watch | Surgical robotics moat; approaching entry zone |
| AAPL | $255.20 | $250–260 | 39.1 | -2.5% | bargain-bin | 🔍 Watch | Mega-cap on sale; wait for RSI < 35 |
| LLY | $976.59 | $950–990 | 40.7 | -5.8% | bargain-bin | 🔍 Watch | GLP-1 thesis intact; approaching entry |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ WATCH FOR ENTRY | TMO, V, MA | Quality names at rare oversold levels; thesis intact |
| 🔍 RESEARCH | NKE, QCOM, LULU, BNTX, CRSP, ISRG, FSLR, IBKR | Quality at deep discount; thesis validation needed |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | VYM | Dividend ETF at oversold; defensive accumulation |
| 🔍 WATCH | AAPL, LLY, IWM | Approaching oversold; not yet confirmed entry |
| ❌ AVOID | ZM, EOSE | Insiders selling into dips — traps, not bargains |
| ❌ AVOID | ZS, WDAY, ESTC, TEAM, SOFI, AFRM, RBLX | Structural breakdowns; low RSI ≠ value |
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| V and MA both at RSI 34 | Payment duopoly simultaneously oversold — rare entry setup for long-term holders |
| TMO RSI 27.5, no insider buying yet | Patience required; life sciences tools leader approaching buy zone but wait for confirmation |
| ZM RSI 35 + -$210M insider selling | Classic value trap setup — discounts RSI signal when insiders disagree |
| 20+ stocks at RSI<40 simultaneously | Broad de-risking event, not sector-specific; creates quality-at-discount opportunity |
| NKE RSI 26 after -18.8% 3M | Nike at deepest oversold in years — contrarian opportunity if China recovery materializes |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Buying ZS/ESTC/WDAY because RSI is low | Low RSI in structural downtrends is not a buy signal; requires thesis + trend confirmation |
| Not distinguishing insider sell vs neutral on dips | Check insider data before calling any deep-oversold stock a "bargain" |
Open Questions
- NKE: Is the China/tariff headwind temporary or permanent market share loss?
- V/MA: Credit cycle risk — if recession, these could have more downside despite oversold RSI
- TMO: When does the life sciences tools cycle bottom? Any conference catalysts upcoming?
- LULU: Can the premium athleisure brand survive a consumer spending slowdown?
Scan universe: Broad universe filtered for RSI < 40 AND below SMA20. Quality bias — focused on franchise value, not momentum. Date: 2026-03-12.
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.