EV & Clean Energy Scan
EV & Clean Energy Scan
A tale of two worlds: US clean energy infrastructure is running (BE +86%, ENPH +35%, SEDG +22% in 3M) while the EV makers themselves are stuck in a tariff/demand malaise. Chinese ADRs are base-building 30-40% below highs. The energy transition trade has rotated from vehicles to the grid.
Dashboard
| Stock | Price | RSI | Trend | vs SMA200 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | From High | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV Makers | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSLA | $407.82 | 48 | weak-down | +3.8% | -2.1% | -2.2% | -11.1% | -18.2% | 🟡 Fading — below SMA50, golden cross holding |
| BYDDY | $12.43 | 52 | weak-up | -10.1% | +0.3% | 0.0% | +0.6% | -38.0% | 🟡 Base-building below SMA200, death cross |
| LI | $18.29 | 57 | weak-up | -17.9% | +4.0% | -2.7% | +7.1% | -42.9% | 🟡 Below SMA200, death cross, bouncing |
| NIO | $5.47 | 61 | up | +3.5% | +19.5% | +10.5% | +8.8% | -31.8% | 🟢 Best momentum of Chinese EVs, approaching SMA200 |
| XPEV | $19.29 | 61 | weak-up | -4.2% | +15.8% | +9.0% | +1.6% | -31.7% | 🟡 Short-term pop, still below SMA200 |
| RIVN | $16.65 | 59 | strong-up | +11.5% | +9.3% | +18.9% | -9.6% | -26.6% | 🟢 Best US EV momentum, golden cross, above SMA200 |
| LCID | $10.68 | 54 | weak-up | -39.3% | -0.3% | +7.7% | -14.8% | -68.3% | 🔴 Deep below SMA200, death cross, Saudi-backed zombie |
| Clean Energy / Fuel Cells | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| BE | $159.21 | 53 | strong-up | +86.0% | -5.6% | +14.5% | +67.6% | -12.0% | 🟢 Monster run — data center power theme |
| PLUG | $2.23 | 55 | strong-up | +10.5% | -9.8% | +22.5% | -3.9% | -51.3% | 🟡 Bouncing but still down 51% from high |
| ENPH | $43.34 | 51 | strong-up | +16.8% | +2.1% | -1.8% | +34.7% | -32.8% | 🟢 Solar recovery, golden cross, solid 3M |
| SEDG | $36.09 | 50 | strong-up | +15.3% | -1.7% | +4.9% | +22.2% | -25.7% | 🟢 Solar recovery following ENPH |
| FSLR | $200.25 | 40 | down | -7.2% | -2.5% | -9.2% | -21.4% | -30.0% | 🔴 Bucking sector — in downtrend, nearing oversold |
| ETFs | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| LIT | $72.99 | 53 | strong-up | +30.7% | +1.6% | +1.7% | +14.6% | -6.4% | 🟢 Lithium/battery ETF near highs |
| DRIV | $31.21 | 44 | weak-down | +11.8% | -0.7% | -3.6% | +4.4% | -7.5% | 🟡 Broad EV ETF fading |
| KARS | $32.74 | 55 | strong-up | +15.6% | +0.9% | +2.4% | +6.6% | -2.9% | 🟢 China EV ETF near 52-week high |
| TAN | $55.73 | 50 | strong-up | +22.9% | -0.2% | -2.0% | +16.5% | -8.7% | 🟢 Solar ETF healthy uptrend |
| ICLN | $18.51 | 53 | strong-up | +18.2% | +0.9% | +0.7% | +12.4% | -4.5% | 🟢 Broad clean energy ETF steady |
Theme Analysis
The Great Rotation: Vehicles → Infrastructure
The biggest story in this sector isn't who's selling the most cars — it's who's powering the grid. BE (Bloom Energy) at +86% above SMA200 is the standout, riding the AI data center power theme alongside VRT and GEV. The market has decided that electricity generation matters more than what runs on it.
Solar is recovering hard: ENPH (+35% 3M) and SEDG (+22% 3M) are both in strong uptrends with golden crosses. The sole exception is FSLR, which is in a full downtrend — possibly tariff-related given its US manufacturing focus and questions about IRA subsidy durability.
Chinese EVs: Base-Building or Value Traps?
All four Chinese ADRs (BYDDY, LI, NIO, XPEV) are trading below their SMA200 with death crosses. But there's a divergence emerging:
The China EV trade is a bet on tariff resolution + domestic demand recovery. EU price floor negotiations (replacing 27% tariff) could be the catalyst.
US EV Makers: Divergent Paths
- TSLA ($408, RSI 48) is in weak-down territory — below SMA50, -11% in 3M. The Elon political distraction narrative continues to weigh. Golden cross still intact but barely.
- RIVN ($16.65, strong-up) is the surprise — only US EV maker in a strong uptrend with golden cross. VW partnership + improving unit economics.
- LCID ($10.68, -68% from high) remains the sector zombie. Saudi PIF backing keeps it alive but the business case is thin.
ETFs Tell the Story
| ETF | 3M% | What It Says |
|---|---|---|
| LIT | +14.6% | Battery/lithium demand strong (AI + EVs) |
| KARS | +6.6% | China EV exposure recovering slowly |
| TAN | +16.5% | Solar revival is real |
| ICLN | +12.4% | Broad clean energy catching a bid |
| DRIV | +4.4% | Broad EV lagging — Tesla drag |
Action Matrix
| Signal | Stocks | Action |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Strong momentum, uptrend | BE, ENPH, SEDG, LIT, KARS, TAN, ICLN, RIVN | Hold / accumulate on pullbacks to SMA20 |
| 🟡 Neutral / base-building | TSLA, BYDDY, LI, XPEV, NIO, PLUG, DRIV | Watch — wait for trend confirmation above SMA200 |
| 🔴 Downtrend / distressed | FSLR, LCID | Avoid — FSLR approaching oversold (RSI 40) could be a mean-reversion trade if IRA concerns clear |
Key Levels to Watch
| Stock | Level | Why |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | $393 (SMA200) | If golden cross breaks into death cross, sentiment shift |
| BYDDY | $13.83 (SMA200) | Needs to reclaim for trend reversal |
| NIO | $5.28 (SMA200) | Testing right now — break above = momentum trade |
| BE | $155.62 (SMA20) | Hold this on pullbacks = healthy trend continuation |
| FSLR | $200 | Round number support — break below = more downside |
Catalysts
| Date | Event | Stocks | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Late March 2026 | BYD FY2025 earnings | BYDDY, KARS | Revenue growth, margin expansion, international mix |
| Q2 2026 | BYD Turkey factory opens | BYDDY | EU tariff bypass |
| Q2 2026 | EU EV tariff price floor decision | BYDDY, LI, NIO, XPEV | Major de-risk if approved |
| Ongoing | US IRA subsidy clarity | FSLR, ENPH, SEDG | Political risk from potential subsidy rollback |
| April 2026 | Tesla Q1 deliveries | TSLA | Volume trajectory after 2025 decline |
| Ongoing | AI data center buildout | BE | Power demand = secular tailwind |
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.