MU $420.08 (RSI 51.7, strong-up GC — memory leader holding). AMD $198.92 (RSI 46.4, weak-down GC). NVDA $173.85 (RSI 38.8, down GC — slipping). ASML $1,299.20 (RSI 40.7, weak-down GC). TSM $327.69 (RSI 39.1, weak-down GC).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 GOLDEN CROSSES INTACT BUT SOFTENING — MU LONE LEADER — All 5 names still have golden crosses but RSIs drifting down. MU $420.08 RSI 51.7 strong-up is the only name with positive trend signal. NVDA RSI 38.8 now down trend. TSM RSI 39.1 and ASML RSI 40.7 both weak-down. AMD RSI 46.4 weak-down. |
| Key insight |
MU $420.08 RSI 51.7, strong-up — memory upcycle holding, -1.9% 30D modest versus peers. NVDA $173.85 RSI 38.8 down trend — AI GPU thesis under pressure, -8.4% 30D. ASML $1,299 RSI 40.7, -11.6% 30D — EUV lithography pullback deepening. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Stocks |
Why |
| 🔒 HOLD |
MU |
$420.08, RSI 51.7, strong-up GC — memory upcycle intact |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE |
AMD |
$198.92, RSI 46.4, golden cross — GPU/CPU at discount |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE |
TSM |
$327.69, RSI 39.1, golden cross — foundry monopoly, -16% from high |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE |
ASML |
$1,299.20, RSI 40.7, golden cross — EUV monopoly, oversold |
| 🔍 WATCH |
NVDA |
$173.85, RSI 38.8, down trend GC — critical support test |
Data (Validated 2026-03-20)
| Stock |
Price |
7D |
30D |
52wkHi |
RSI |
SMA20 |
vs SMA |
Status |
Action |
| TSM |
$327.69 |
-0.8% |
-11.3% |
-16.0% |
39.1 |
$353.43 |
-7.3% |
🟡 Weak-down, golden cross |
📈 Accumulate |
| NVDA |
$173.85 |
-3.0% |
-8.4% |
-18.1% |
38.8 |
$183.17 |
-5.1% |
🟡 Down, golden cross |
🔍 Watch |
| ASML |
$1,299.20 |
-0.2% |
-11.6% |
-16.0% |
40.7 |
$1,393.98 |
-6.8% |
🟡 Weak-down, golden cross |
📈 Accumulate |
| AMD |
$198.92 |
+4.2% |
-0.6% |
-25.5% |
46.4 |
$200.35 |
-0.7% |
🟡 Weak-down, golden cross |
📈 Accumulate |
| MU |
$420.08 |
+4.8% |
-1.9% |
-10.9% |
51.7 |
$416.42 |
+0.9% |
🟢 Strong-up, golden cross |
🔒 Hold |
Key Changes vs 03/13
| Stock |
03/13 Price |
03/20 Price |
Move |
Note |
| NVDA |
$180.25 |
$173.85 |
-3.6% |
RSI 46 → 38.8 — crossed into down trend |
| ASML |
$1,345.69 |
$1,299.20 |
-3.5% |
RSI 45 → 40.7 — 30D now -11.6% |
| TSM |
$339.35 |
$327.69 |
-3.4% |
RSI 43 → 39.1 — 30D now -11.3% |
| MU |
$426.13 |
$420.08 |
-1.4% |
RSI 57 → 51.7 — slight pullback, still strong-up |
| AMD |
$198.93 |
$198.92 |
flat |
RSI 45 → 46.4 — AMD holding best of the group |
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| NVDA RSI 46 → 38.8, now down trend |
AI GPU demand narrative weakening — golden cross still alive but at risk |
| MU remains only strong-up name in semis |
Memory upcycle decoupling from AI GPU weakness — MU is the safe semi play |
| TSM + ASML both -11% 30D |
Entire semi supply chain under pressure — not just AI narrative |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| Reading NVDA golden cross as unbreakable |
Golden cross + down trend = caution, not conviction |
Open Questions
- NVDA RSI 38.8 — when does golden cross flip to death cross at this rate?
- MU vs NVDA divergence — is memory demand outpacing AI GPU build-out?
- ASML -11.6% 30D — EUV demand still intact for 2026 or capex pause?