NVDA Ecosystem Scan
NVDA Ecosystem Scan
Semiconductor/AI infrastructure broadly under pressure — AMD down -21% 30D at RSI 33, AVGO approaching oversold at RSI 29, TSM and ASML both dropped -8-9% in 7D; NVDA holding near SMA; MU is the lone bright spot at RSI 55 with +23.5% 30D strength.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 WEAK — AI infrastructure rotation unwinding, broad selling across semis; only MU and NVDA showing relative resilience |
| Leaders | MU (RSI 55, +23.5% 30D), NVDA (RSI 44, near SMA) |
| Laggards | AMD (RSI 33, -21.1% 30D), ASML (-9.1% 7D), TSM (-8.4% 7D), AVGO (RSI 29) |
Price Table (2026-03-03)
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $180.05 | 44 | $185.27 | -2.8% | -6.6% | +3.4% | 🟡 Weak |
| ARM | $121.72 | 49 | $123.02 | -1.1% | -5.0% | +16.0% | 🟡 Neutral |
| MU | $411.66 | 55 | $400.32 | +2.8% | +4.3% | +23.5% | 🟡 Strong |
| AVGO | $313.78 | 29 | $327.50 | -4.2% | -3.6% | -2.0% | 🟢 Oversold |
| MRVL | $77.51 | 43 | $79.00 | -1.9% | -1.1% | +5.1% | 🟡 Neutral |
| TSM | $353.35 | 48 | $362.09 | -2.4% | -8.4% | +8.5% | 🟡 Weak |
| ASML | $1,360.91 | 43 | $1,430.37 | -4.9% | -9.1% | -2.4% | 🟡 Weak |
| AMAT | N/A | N/A | N/A | — | — | — | — |
| AMD | $191.02 | 33 | $206.06 | -7.3% | -10.7% | -21.1% | 🟢 Approaching Oversold |
| SMCI | $30.67 | 47 | $31.78 | -3.5% | -1.5% | -9.2% | 🟡 Neutral |
| DELL | N/A | N/A | N/A | — | — | — | — |
| HPE | N/A | N/A | N/A | — | — | — | — |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI < 25)
Oversold (RSI 25–40)
AVGO RSI 29 — Broadcom approaching oversold after -4.2% below SMA. Custom ASIC and networking portfolio thesis intact. At RSI 29, this is an entry zone if it dips to 25-27. AMD RSI 33 — -21.1% 30D and -7.3% below SMA is serious damage. Server GPU competition with NVDA remains headwind. However at RSI 33 after this drawdown, risk/reward is improving. Not quite a buy yet but watch the $185-$195 zone.
Neutral (RSI 40–60)
NVDA RSI 44 — -2.8% below SMA, -6.6% 7D but only +3.4% 30D suggests the stock was already digesting prior move. AI infrastructure leader, thesis intact. This is the core hold, not a panic. MRVL RSI 43 — Custom ASIC story still valid, -1.9% below SMA. Relatively resilient. TSM RSI 48 — -8.4% 7D drop on geopolitical noise (Taiwan premium compression?). Below SMA, but 30D still +8.5%. ASML RSI 43 — -9.1% 7D is notable for a mega-cap; -4.9% below SMA. EUV monopoly thesis intact but multiple compression ongoing. ARM RSI 49 — Pulled back from 30D run (+16%) to SMA. Neutral positioning. SMCI RSI 47 — Stable near SMA despite -9.2% 30D. Server buildout thesis dependent on hyperscaler capex.
Strong (RSI 60+)
MU RSI 55 — Not technically "strong" by RSI but is the clear outperformer in this scan: +23.5% 30D, above SMA, +4.3% 7D. HBM memory demand thesis playing out. Best performer in ecosystem this month.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry Zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ AVGO | $300–$315 | Custom ASIC + networking, RSI 29 approaching oversold; HYPERSCALER AI chip demand intact |
| 📈 AMD | $185–$195 | RSI 33, -21% 30D — significant damage but approaching washout; server GPU eventual recovery |
| 🔍 NVDA | $175–$183 | Core AI infrastructure; -2.8% below SMA, wait for RSI < 40 for better entry |
| 🔍 TSM | $345–$355 | EUV fab monopoly, -8.4% 7D — geopolitical risk premium but thesis intact |
| 🔍 ASML | $1,340–$1,370 | EUV monopoly, -9.1% 7D — EU semi weakness but irreplaceable technology |
| 🔍 MRVL | $74–$78 | Custom ASICs, near SMA, watch for RSI < 38 |
| ⏳ MU | $390–$410 | HBM thesis intact; RSI 55 and above SMA — wait for pullback before adding |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ STRONG BUY | AVGO | RSI 29, approaching oversold — best risk/reward in ecosystem right now |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | AMD | RSI 33, -21% 30D — washout forming; start small DCA |
| 🔒 HOLD | NVDA, MU | Core positions; NVDA near SMA, MU running strong |
| 🔍 WATCH | TSM, ASML, MRVL | Pulling back meaningfully; wait for RSI < 40 |
| 🔍 WATCH | ARM, SMCI | Neutral; no urgent action |
| ⏳ WAIT | MU | Don't chase +23.5% 30D run; wait for pullback |
| — | AMAT, DELL, HPE | No data available |
What Changed (vs 2026-02-26)
| Stock | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|
| AMD | -10.7% 7D, RSI fell to 33 | Significant deterioration — now approaching oversold |
| TSM | -8.4% 7D | Sharp 7D selloff, geopolitical risk or macro rotation |
| ASML | -9.1% 7D | Second consecutive week of weakness |
| AVGO | RSI dropped to 29 | Now approaching oversold — best entry in scan |
| MU | +4.3% 7D, RSI 55 | Continues to outperform — HBM thesis working |
| NVDA | -6.6% 7D | Pulled back but 30D still green; SMA support being tested |
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| AVGO RSI 29 with intact ASIC thesis | Best risk/reward entry in entire ecosystem — strong buy territory |
| AMD -21.1% 30D with RSI only at 33 (not yet capitulation) | More pain possible before washout; DCA rather than full position |
| MU +23.5% 30D while rest of semis fall | HBM memory is differentiating from GPU narrative — sector rotation within semis |
| TSM and ASML both -8-9% in 7 days | Possible geopolitical risk repricing or broad semi multiple compression |
Open Questions
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.