NVDA Ecosystem Scan
NVDA Ecosystem Scan
Semiconductor selloff deepened across the board — ARM crushed -6.6% 30D, ASML -4.0%, TSM -3.6%; NVDA -3.1% but holding better than peers; AVGO surging +1.6% on earnings beat; MRVL explodes +12.9% on strong Q4; MU data is stale (Feb 13) but was strong at RSI 55.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 WEAK — Broad semi selloff continues with ARM and ASML leading downside; MRVL and AVGO bucking trend on earnings catalysts; NVDA grinding lower but not capitulating |
| Leaders | MRVL (+12.9% 30D, earnings), AVGO (+1.6% 30D, bouncing), MU (stale but was strong) |
| Laggards | ARM (-6.6% 30D, -9.2% 7D), ASML (-4.0% 30D), TSM (-3.6% 30D), SMCI (-4.1% 30D) |
Price Table (2026-03-10)
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $182.65 | — | — | — | +1.4% | -3.1% | 🟡 Weak |
| ARM | $117.63 | — | — | — | -9.2% | -6.6% | 🟢 Approaching Oversold |
| MU | $411.66 | 55 | $400.32 | +2.8% | — | — | 🟡 Strong (stale 02/13) |
| AVGO | $345.75 | — | — | — | +7.5% | +1.6% | 🟡 Recovering |
| MRVL | $92.65 | — | — | — | +19.5% | +12.9% | 🟠 Extended |
| TSM | $348.70 | — | — | — | -1.3% | -3.6% | 🟡 Weak |
| ASML | $1,357.42 | — | — | — | -0.8% | -4.0% | 🟡 Weak |
| AMAT | N/A | N/A | N/A | — | — | — | — |
| SMCI | $31.98 | — | — | — | -0.9% | -4.1% | 🟡 Weak |
| VRT | $191.04 | 70 | $179.04 | +6.7% | — | — | 🟠 Overbought (stale 02/03) |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI < 25)
None currently — but ARM at -9.2% 7D is approaching washout levels. Without fresh RSI data, the decline from $131.74 peak to $114.38 (-13.2% in 2 weeks) suggests RSI is likely in the 25-35 range.
Oversold (RSI 25–40)
ARM — -6.6% 30D and accelerating to the downside with -9.2% 7D. The stock dropped from $131.74 to $114.38, a brutal decline. IP licensing/royalty thesis intact but market is repricing mobile AI exposure. This is approaching strong buy territory if it reaches $110-$115.
Neutral (RSI 40–60)
NVDA RSI ~45 (est) — -3.1% 30D, grinding lower from $195 to $183. AI infrastructure leader, thesis intact. Earnings in late May will be the next major catalyst. Near support. TSM — -3.6% 30D, down from $387 to $349. Geopolitical risk premium persists. Fab monopoly thesis intact. ASML — -4.0% 30D, sharp drop from $1,527 to $1,293 before recovering to $1,357. EUV monopoly but EU macro weakness weighing. SMCI — -4.1% 30D, server buildout play bouncing around $30-33 range.
Strong (RSI 60+)
MRVL RSI ~70+ (est) — Exploded +19.5% in 7D on strong Q4 earnings. Custom ASIC thesis validated. Don't chase — wait for consolidation. AVGO — +7.5% 7D recovery from $313 lows to $346. Earnings catalyst (03/05-06) drove massive volume. Custom ASIC + networking thesis intact. VRT RSI 70 — Data is stale (02/03) at $191, was running hot. AI power infrastructure play.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry Zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ ARM | $110–$118 | IP licensing monopoly, -9.2% 7D selloff creating entry; mobile AI + datacenter royalties |
| 📈 NVDA | $175–$183 | Core AI infrastructure leader, grinding near support; DCA on weakness |
| 📈 TSM | $340–$355 | Fab monopoly, -3.6% 30D; geopolitical discount = long-term entry |
| 🔍 ASML | $1,290–$1,360 | EUV monopoly, sharp selloff from $1,527; wait for RSI < 35 |
| ⏳ AVGO | $320–$340 | Earnings bounce — wait for consolidation before adding |
| ⏳ MRVL | $80–$88 | Earnings explosion — wait for pullback from +19.5% 7D run |
| ⏳ MU | $390–$410 | Data stale; was strong at RSI 55 — need fresh data |
| 🔍 SMCI | $29–$32 | Server buildout play, range-bound; low conviction without catalyst |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ STRONG BUY | ARM | -9.2% 7D selloff into $115 zone; IP licensing thesis intact; best entry in scan |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | NVDA, TSM | Core semi positions; grinding lower to support — DCA opportunity |
| 🔒 HOLD | AVGO, MU | AVGO bouncing on earnings; MU was strong (stale data) |
| 🔍 WATCH | ASML | Sharp decline but not yet capitulation; needs RSI < 35 |
| ⏳ WAIT | MRVL | Don't chase +19.5% 7D earnings rip; wait for consolidation at $85-88 |
| 🔍 WATCH | SMCI, VRT | Range-bound/stale data; no urgent action |
| — | AMAT | No data available |
What Changed (vs 2026-03-03)
| Stock | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|
| ARM | -9.2% 7D acceleration | Worst performer in scan — breaking below $120 support |
| MRVL | +19.5% 7D explosion | Q4 earnings blowout — custom ASIC thesis validated; 90M volume day |
| AVGO | Recovered from $314 to $346 | +7.5% 7D — earnings catalyst drove massive buying (57M volume on 03/05) |
| ASML | Hit $1,293 on 03/06 | Sharp intraday selloff from $1,527 — EU semi weakness |
| TSM | Continued decline to $349 | -3.6% 30D, geopolitical risk still weighing |
| NVDA | Stable at $183 | -3.1% 30D — holding better than most semi peers |
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| ARM -9.2% 7D is the sharpest weekly decline in ecosystem | Mobile/IP licensing repricing — contrarian entry if $110-$115 holds |
| MRVL +19.5% 7D on 90M volume validates custom ASIC thesis | AI compute demand shifting from GPUs to custom silicon — structural trend |
| AVGO earnings recovery from $314 to $346 | Custom chip + networking portfolio is differentiating from pure GPU plays |
| ASML hit $1,293 intraday — -15.3% from Feb peak | EUV monopoly multiple compression despite no competitive threat; macro-driven |
Open Questions
Related
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