NVDA Ecosystem Scan

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NVDA Ecosystem Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 28 rows · screens, not recommendations superseded by2026-05-01-nvda-ecosystemported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-03-12-nvda-ecosystem.mdscan slugnvda-ecosystemsource typescan-archive

NVDA holding near all-time-high territory but ecosystem is bifurcated — VRT and GEV ripping (RSI 68/55, strong-up), MRVL surging +15% this week, while ARM death-crosses and SMCI remains broken at -49% from high.


Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 BIFURCATED — Power infrastructure dominant, foundry/memory holding, ARM broken, SMCI uninvestable
Leaders VRT ($269.25, RSI 68), GEV ($835.75, RSI 55), MRVL ($89.04, RSI 60)
Laggards ARM ($115.31, RSI 42, death cross), SMCI ($31.04, RSI 47, -49% from high)

Price Table (2026-03-12)

Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% Trend Signal
VRT $269.25 68 +6.9% +5.4% +13.8% strong-up 🟠 Near Overbought
MRVL $89.04 60 +8.6% +15.4% +13.8% strong-up 🟢 Momentum
GEV $835.75 55 -0.4% +2.0% +2.4% strong-up 🟢 Strong
CEG $308.17 50 -0.6% -7.5% +11.8% weak-up 🟡 Neutral
NVDA $184.12 50 -0.7% +2.4% -1.5% weak-down 🟡 Consolidating
AVGO $338.17 54 +2.5% +4.2% +2.1% strong-up 🟡 Hold
TSM $339.35 43 -6.4% -0.1% -7.8% weak-down 🟡 Watch
ASML $1,352.42 46 -4.7% -0.3% -3.9% weak-down 🟡 Watch
AMAT $339.15 48 -5.5% +0.2% +3.4% strong-up 🟡 Hold
MU $406.41 53 -0.5% +5.7% -1.8% strong-up 🟡 Hold
ARM $115.31 42 -6.8% -1.2% -5.6% strong-down 🔴 Death Cross
SMCI $31.04 47 -1.6% -3.6% +2.0% strong-down 🔴 Broken

Tier Analysis

LEADERS / MOMENTUM (RSI > 55)

VRT (RSI 68, +67% in 3M): Vertiv is the data center power infrastructure king. Cooling, power distribution for hyperscalers. +65% above SMA200, golden cross. At RSI 68 it's near overbought but the fundamental demand is undeniable. Trim zone approaching but don't sell your core.

MRVL (RSI 60, +15.4% in 7D): Marvell — custom AI ASICs for hyperscalers (Amazon, Google). Big week. +8.6% above SMA20, golden cross. This is the custom ASIC horse to ride as NVDA CUDA monopoly gets pressured. Still +12% above SMA200.

GEV (RSI 55, +24.5% in 3M): GE Vernova — grid/power infrastructure. Near 52wk high (-5.9%). +32.9% above SMA200. Strong fundamental demand from data center power buildout.

AVGO (RSI 54, +4.9% above SMA200): Broadcom holding well — custom silicon + networking. Golden cross intact.

CONSOLIDATING (RSI 45-55) — Hold/Watch

NVDA (RSI 50): The man himself is consolidating. -0.7% vs SMA20, essentially flat. +3.9% above SMA200. Down -1.5% in 30D but +5.2% in 3M. If you own NVDA, hold. If you don't, wait for the ecosystem to signal direction.

CEG (RSI 50, death cross): Constellation Energy consolidating after +11.8% in 30D bounce. But death cross is a caution flag. Nuclear power for data centers — thesis intact long-term but near-term technical uncertainty.

MU (RSI 53, +83.7% above SMA200): Memory playing catch-up to AI cycle. +68.6% in 3M is parabolic. Now consolidating near SMA20. Strong long-term setup.

AMAT (RSI 48, +44.7% above SMA200): Applied Materials holding above all SMAs. Golden cross. Etch/CVD equipment for AI chip fabs. +31% in 3M. Healthy consolidation.

PULLING BACK / WATCH (RSI 40-48)

TSM (RSI 43, -6.4% vs SMA20): Taiwan Semi pulling back after big 3M run. The world's foundry — fundamental demand unquestionable. Tariff/geopolitical risk on Taiwan is the overhang. -7.8% in 30D but +16.2% in 3M. Better entry ahead.

ASML (RSI 46, -4.7% vs SMA20): EUV lithography monopoly. -3.9% in 30D but +25.3% in 3M. Still golden cross. Europe exposure but irreplaceable technology.

ARM (RSI 42, DEATH CROSS): This is the yellow flag. Arm Holdings — CPU IP licensing. Death cross confirmed, -16.6% below SMA200, -34.5% from 52wk high. AI edge computing thesis may be intact but technical damage is severe.

BROKEN (Structural Damage)

SMCI (RSI 47, death cross, -49% from 52wk high, -24.6% below SMA200): Super Micro — accounting/governance issues remain unresolved. Technical structure destroyed. Not a buy despite flat RSI; the death cross and -49% from high tell the real story.


Entry Zones

Stock Current Zone RSI 30D Chg Action Notes
TSM $339.35 $320-340 43 -7.8% 📈 Accumulate World's only foundry, pulling back to SMA50 zone
ASML $1,352.42 $1,300-1,360 46 -3.9% 📈 Accumulate EUV monopoly, golden cross intact, healthy pullback
NVDA $184.12 $175-185 50 -1.5% 🔒 Hold Consolidating at fair value; add on dips to SMA50
AMAT $339.15 $320-340 48 +3.4% 🔍 Watch Equipment spend will rise with new fabs; no rush
ARM $115.31 Wait 42 -5.6% ⏳ Wait Death cross — need SMA recovery before entry

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD VRT, GEV, AVGO, MU, NVDA Core AI infrastructure winners, trends intact
📈 ACCUMULATE TSM, ASML Pulling back to entry zones, irreplaceable businesses
🔍 WATCH MRVL, AMAT, CEG Momentum building; MRVL esp. impressive this week
⚠️ CAUTION ARM Death cross, -34% from high, needs technical repair
❌ DON'T BUY SMCI Governance issues unresolved, structural damage

What Changed

  • MRVL +15.4% this week: Custom ASIC story breaking out. Hyperscaler silicon spend shifting to custom chips — Marvell is a prime beneficiary. This is the "NVDA without NVDA premium" play.
  • VRT continues grind higher: Data center power infra remains strongest subsector. +66.96% in 3M. Near RSI 68 but fundamental demand not slowing.
  • ARM death cross confirmed: -34.5% from highs and death cross is a clear caution signal. CPU IP licensing faces pressure from RISC-V alternatives and in-house chip design.
  • CEG -7.5% this week: Nuclear power play pulling back. Death cross is now confirmed — the data center power narrative has been priced in; now we wait for actual contracts.
  • SMCI remains broken: Flat-ish RSI 47 is misleading — the structural damage from accounting issues persists. No buy signal.
  • NVDA consolidating: Not alarming — just digesting the 2025 run. Core position to hold.

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
VRT/GEV power infra leading semiconductor names Power > chips in near-term AI buildout cycle
MRVL +15.4% in 7D — custom ASIC momentum Custom silicon beneficiaries outperforming pure-play GPU
ARM death cross while ecosystem holds CPU IP licensing under pressure; avoid until technical repair

Open Questions

  • Can MRVL sustain the breakout or is this a one-week squeeze?
  • When does TSM tariff/geopolitical overhang resolve — is this a buying opportunity?
  • SMCI: Will accounting restatement resolution eventually create a re-entry opportunity?
10 events

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