NVDA Ecosystem Scan

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NVDA Ecosystem Scan

Scan symbols 9
ARMASMLAVGOMRVLMUNVDASMCITSMVRT
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@nvda-ecosystem
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 25 rows · screens, not recommendations superseded by2026-05-01-nvda-ecosystemported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-03-20-nvda-ecosystem.mdscan slugnvda-ecosystemsource typescan-archive

Ecosystem fracturing: NVDA stuck in no-man's land at RSI 39 while SMCI collapses to RSI 25 (-35% in 30 days), ARM and MU diverge to the upside, and VRT remains the only ecosystem name in genuine strong-up trend.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 BIFURCATED / RISK-OFF — Core GPU supply chain pressured, power/cooling (VRT) decoupled and running, memory (MU) recovering
Leaders VRT ($258.48, RSI 56, +55.5% 3M), ARM ($132.82, RSI 64, +17.2% 3M), MU ($420.08, RSI 52, +51.9% 3M)
Laggards SMCI ($21.09, RSI 25↓, -35.0% 30D), NVDA ($173.85, RSI 39, -8.4% 30D), AVGO ($312.37, RSI 40, -6.1% 30D)

Price Table (2026-03-20)

Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% Trend Signal
SMCI $21.09 25 ↓ -32.1% -0.9% -35.0% -32.1% strong-down 🔴 Falling Knife
NVDA $173.85 39 ↓ -5.1% -3.0% -8.4% -5.4% down 🟡 Weak
TSM $327.69 39 ↓ -7.3% -0.8% -11.3% +12.0% weak-down 🟡 Watch
AVGO $312.37 40 ↓ -4.3% -4.1% -6.1% -8.5% down 🟡 Watch
ASML $1,299.20 41 ↓ -6.8% -0.2% -11.6% +23.0% weak-down 🟡 Watch
MRVL $87.54 54 +3.1% -0.4% +10.1% +3.3% strong-up 🔒 Hold
MU $420.08 52 +0.9% +4.8% -1.9% +51.9% strong-up 🔒 Hold
ARM $132.82 64 +7.3% +10.9% +5.8% +17.2% weak-up ⚠️ Extended
VRT $258.48 56 0.0% +2.0% +6.1% +55.5% strong-up 🔒 Hold

Tier Analysis

Tier 1 — NVDA (The Core)

NVDA ($173.85, RSI 39): Now trading below all three SMAs (SMA20 -5.1%, SMA50 -5.8%, SMA200 -2.6%). 1yr alpha vs SPY remains +33%, so institutional demand is still there — but the stock is in a confirmed down trend. The $170 level is critical: it's where SMA200 sits. A break below $170 with volume would signal deeper correction toward $140-150. RSI 39 is not yet a buy signal — needs a flush toward 30 first, or a macro catalyst reversal.

Tier 2 — Ecosystem Winners (Decoupled from NVDA)

VRT ($258.48, RSI 56, +55.5% 3M): Power/cooling for data centers is NVDA-agnostic — every hyperscaler is spending on this regardless of which GPU wins. The strongest name in the ecosystem by far. At SMA20, holding strength. MU ($420.08, RSI 52, +51.9% 3M): Memory super-cycle thesis playing out — HBM demand from AI training is real. Strong-up trend intact despite 30D consolidation. MRVL ($87.54, RSI 54, +10.1% 30D): Custom ASICs for hyperscalers is the hedge against NVDA-concentration risk. Outperforming meaningfully.

Tier 3 — ARM (Licensor, Not Supplier)

ARM ($132.82, RSI 64, +10.9% 7D): ARM licenses to everyone — NVDA, Apple, Qualcomm, custom silicon shops. Rally has taken it to +7.3% above SMA20 and into overbought territory on 7D. Death cross on chart is a flag. Worth owning but approaching near-term extended territory.

Tier 4 — Supply Chain Under Pressure

TSM ($327.69, RSI 39, -11.3% 30D): TSMC is the essential foundry but tariff risk on Taiwan is real. Strong long-term (+284.8% 3yr), but -16% from 52wk high and RSI drifting toward oversold. ASML ($1,299.20, RSI 41, -11.6% 30D): EUV monopoly faces near-term headwinds from China export controls tightening. AVGO ($312.37, RSI 40, -6.1% 30D): Custom ASIC thesis intact but stock caught up in broad semi selloff.

Tier 5 — Broken

SMCI ($21.09, RSI 25, -35.0% 30D): Accounting restatement fallout continuing. Death cross active. -32.1% below SMA20. This is not a value dip — it is an ongoing accounting/governance crisis. Avoid entirely.

Entry Zones

Stock Current Zone RSI 30D% Action Notes
NVDA $173.85 <$170 39 ↓ -8.4% 📈 Accumulate Wait for RSI < 35 or SMA200 test
TSM $327.69 $300-320 39 ↓ -11.3% 🔍 Watch Tariff risk keeps overhang; RSI approaching oversold
AVGO $312.37 <$305 40 ↓ -6.1% 🔍 Watch Custom ASIC thesis intact; wait for RSI 30-35
ASML $1,299.20 <$1,250 41 ↓ -11.6% 🔍 Watch EUV monopoly, patient entry only
MU $420.08 <$400 52 -1.9% 📈 Accumulate Any pullback toward $390-400 is opportunity

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD VRT, MU, MRVL Core winners with strong-up trend, don't sell
📈 ACCUMULATE NVDA Core position on dips, SMA200 test = entry
🔍 WATCH TSM, AVGO, ASML Right thesis, wrong RSI — wait for oversold
⚠️ AVOID ARM RSI 64 + death cross, short-term extended
❌ DON'T BUY SMCI Accounting crisis ongoing, no floor visible

What Changed vs 2026-03-12

  • SMCI accelerating collapse: -35% in 30 days, RSI 25 vs prior ~40. Situation deteriorating.
  • MU re-rated massively higher: +51.9% 3M. Was not in focus previously; now a clear ecosystem leader.
  • VRT running independently: +55.5% 3M, decoupled from NVDA weakness. Data center power demand is the cleanest AI trade.
  • ARM resurging: +10.9% 7D, now at 7.3% above SMA20 — approaching near-term overbought.
  • MRVL turning positive: +10.1% 30D while broader semi ecosystem sold off — custom ASIC thesis resonating.
  • NVDA stuck: Essentially flat over 3 months (-5.4%) while supply chain has both winners and losers.

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
VRT +55.5% 3M while NVDA -5.4% Power/cooling is the pure-play AI infrastructure trade, not the GPU itself
MRVL outperforming NVDA by 18% over 30 days Custom ASIC diversification from NVDA is playing out in prices
SMCI collapse accelerating Accounting crisis is not priced in yet; stay away

Open Questions

  • Is NVDA's $170 SMA200 level a hard floor or will macro pressure break it toward $140?
  • Will TSM tariff risk resolve or escalate, and how does that affect 3-12 month thesis?
  • MRVL: Is the custom ASIC thesis (AWS Trainium, Google TPU) large enough to sustain outperformance?
10 events
DateTypeEvent
Mar 24 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Mar 12 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Mar 10 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Mar 20 ScanAI Scan Apr 3 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Mar 24 ScanAI Scan Mar 26 ScanAI Sector Scan Mar 11 ScanAI Scan Mar 10 ScanAI Scan Mar 31 ScanAI Scan

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