NVDA Ecosystem Scan
NVDA Ecosystem Scan
AI chip ecosystem broadly neutral-to-extended — ARM and TSM near overbought (RSI 71), MU still leading +23.5% 30D. NVDA flat (-0.5% 30D), AMD cratering -19% 30D. AVGO pulling back -3.6% 30D. QCOM building momentum. AMAT data still missing.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 MIXED — ARM/TSM still extended (RSI 71), NVDA consolidating flat, AMD -19% 30D is the sector's weak link |
| Leader | MU (+23.5% 30D, RSI 55) — HBM memory demand intact, modest RSI despite huge run |
| Warning | AMD (RSI 57, -19.0% 30D) — significant underperformance vs ecosystem; approaching entry zone |
| Stable | NVDA RSI 63, ASML RSI 65 — healthy momentum, not extended |
Price Table (Validated 2026-02-26)
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $185.57 | -1.2% | -0.5% | 63.3 | $186.78 | -0.6% | 🟡 Neutral | 🔒 Hold |
| ARM | $127.53 | +0.5% | +11.2% | 71.1 ↑ | $120.29 | +6.0% | 🟠 Near Overbought | ⚠️ Avoid |
| MU | $411.66 | +4.3% | +23.5% | 54.9 | $400.32 | +2.8% | 🟡 Neutral | 🔒 Hold |
| AVGO | $313.30 | -6.2% | -3.6% | 51.4 | $329.13 | -4.8% | 🟡 Pullback | 🔍 Watch |
| MRVL | $77.86 | -2.2% | -4.8% | 58.4 | $78.87 | -1.3% | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch |
| TSM | $372.88 | +3.5% | +12.1% | 71.0 ↑ | $357.61 | +4.3% | 🟠 Near Overbought | ⚠️ Caution |
| ASML | $1,457.69 | -0.1% | +3.3% | 65.5 | $1,434.01 | +1.7% | 🟡 Neutral | 🔒 Hold |
| AMAT | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 🔍 No Data |
| QCOM | $145.41 | +2.9% | -5.9% | 69.0 | $143.59 | +1.3% | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch |
| AMD | $203.49 | +0.1% | -19.0% | 56.9 | $213.32 | -4.6% | 🟡 Weak | 📈 Accumulate |
Tier Analysis
Tier 1 — Near Overbought (RSI 69-71): Caution Zone
ARM (RSI 71.1, +6.0% above SMA20, +11.2% 30D) ARM's RSI has held elevated (78 on 2/22, slightly cooled to 71) while price continued higher. The +11.2% 30D move is intact. AI/edge licensing thesis is strong but valuation remains stretched. Still no entry opportunity. Re-entry zone develops at $110-115 on a SMA retest (RSI < 55).
TSM (RSI 71.0, +4.3% above SMA20, +12.1% 30D) Taiwan Semiconductor continues to march higher on NVDA, Apple, and AMD foundry demand. RSI now matches ARM at 71. +3.5% 7D shows momentum hasn't broken. However, at 4.3% above SMA20, any macro shock or Taiwan/geopolitical headline could produce a sharp reversal. Do not add. Wait for RSI < 60 and SMA retest.
QCOM (RSI 69.0, +1.3% above SMA20) Qualcomm approaching overbought but not there yet. -5.9% 30D but +2.9% 7D recovery — possibly bottoming and reversing. Snapdragon AI edge compute thesis gaining attention. Watch RSI carefully: if it crosses 75, avoid. If it reverses from here back toward 55, interesting.
Tier 2 — Neutral / Consolidating (RSI 51-65): Core Hold Zone
NVDA (RSI 63.3, -0.6% vs SMA20) NVDA continues its sideways consolidation. -0.5% 30D, -1.2% 7D — essentially flat while the ecosystem moved. RSI 63 is healthy. Still sitting right at SMA20 ($186.78). This is a coiling pattern ahead of the next catalyst. Core AI infrastructure position to hold. Entry zone on any dip below $183 (SMA retest with RSI < 55).
MU (RSI 54.9, +2.8% above SMA20) The biggest 30D winner (+23.5%) maintains a modest RSI of 55 — the move happened gradually, not in a spike. HBM memory demand for AI training racks continues. No new entry here, but existing holders should hold. RSI headroom exists for another leg up.
ASML (RSI 65.5, +1.7% above SMA20) EUV equipment compounder — flat 7D (-0.1%), +3.3% 30D. RSI 65 is healthy. ASML benefits from any fab capacity expansion globally. Slow-and-steady; no urgency. Hold. Entry zone develops at $1,380-1,420 (SMA retest).
MRVL (RSI 58.4, -1.3% vs SMA20) Marvell continues to lag the group: -4.8% 30D, -2.2% 7D. Custom AI networking ASICs thesis still intact but relative underperformance persists from last scan. RSI 58 is not compelling — still not cheap enough. Below SMA20 by 1.3%. Entry zone develops below $74 with RSI < 45.
Tier 3 — Laggard / Pullback (AMD, AVGO): Emerging Entry
AMD (RSI 56.9, -4.6% below SMA20, -19.0% 30D) AMD is the clearest underperformer in the ecosystem — -19% in 30 days while NVDA was flat and MU +23.5%. RSI 56.9 does not reflect the damage yet (the 30D loss was gradual). MI300X vs H100 AI GPU competition is the narrative — NVDA maintaining dominance. AMD at $203 is -19% off highs. SMA20 at $213 acts as overhead resistance. The thesis (data center GPU, EPYC server CPUs) is intact but execution is lagging. Entry zone develops at $185-195 on RSI dip toward 45. This is the ecosystem's best DCA candidate currently.
AVGO (RSI 51.4, -4.8% below SMA20, -3.6% 30D) Broadcom pulled back -6.2% in 7 days and is now 4.8% below SMA20. Custom silicon (Google TPUs, Meta) revenue stream is steady. RSI 51 is neutral. The -6.2% 7D drop is notable — potential distribution or sector rotation. Entry zone develops at $295-305 if RSI dips toward 40-45.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Zone | RSI Trigger | Conviction | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🟡 NVDA | $181-$186 | RSI < 55 | HIGH | SMA retest, core AI position; any dip is a gift |
| 🟡 AMD | $185-$195 | RSI < 48 | MEDIUM | -19% 30D laggard, EPYC server thesis intact; best DCA candidate |
| 🟡 AVGO | $295-$305 | RSI < 45 | MEDIUM | Custom silicon pullback; SMA retest needed |
| 🟡 MRVL | $72-$76 | RSI < 45 | MEDIUM | Custom ASIC networking; needs RSI dip to confirm entry |
| 🟡 ASML | $1,380-$1,420 | RSI < 55 | MEDIUM | EUV compounder SMA retest |
| 🟠 ARM | $110-$115 | RSI < 55 | HIGH | Wait for full reset from RSI 71 |
| 🟠 TSM | $345-$358 | RSI < 60 | HIGH | SMA retest after +12.1% run |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ⚠️ AVOID | ARM, TSM | RSI 71, extended above SMA, do not chase |
| 🔒 HOLD | NVDA, MU, ASML | Neutral-positive RSI, at/above SMA, thesis intact |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | AMD | -19% 30D laggard, best risk/reward in group, DCA on weakness |
| 🔍 WATCH | AVGO, MRVL, QCOM | Cooling / lagging; wait for RSI dip to 40-45 |
| ⏳ WAITING | ARM entry $110-115 | RSI needs full reset from 71 |
| ⏳ WAITING | TSM entry $345-358 | SMA retest required |
vs Feb 22 Scan (What Changed)
| Stock | RSI 2/22 | RSI 2/26 | Delta | Signal Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 49 | 63.3 | +14.3 | 🟡→🟡 RSI recovered from consolidation |
| ARM | 78 | 71.1 | -6.9 | 🟠→🟠 Still extended, cooling slowly |
| MU | 55 | 54.9 | -0.1 | 🟡 Unchanged — gradual accumulation |
| AVGO | 51 | 51.4 | +0.4 | 🟡 Flat, but -6.2% 7D is new weakness |
| TSM | 70 | 71.0 | +1.0 | 🟠 No improvement, still extended |
| AMD | — | 56.9 | — | New: -19% 30D, ecosystem laggard |
| QCOM | — | 69.0 | — | New: approaching overbought, watch |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| AMD -19% 30D while NVDA flat | NVDA is winning the AI GPU war decisively; AMD MI300X not gaining share fast enough |
| ARM RSI barely cooled (78→71) despite 4 days | Sustained buying pressure at elevated RSI — either real institutional accumulation or dangerous momentum |
| AVGO -6.2% 7D, now below SMA20 | Custom silicon revenue steady but stock pricing in something negative; watch for further weakness |
| QCOM RSI 69 after -5.9% 30D | Recovery bounce in progress — Snapdragon AI PC/edge narrative resurfacing |
| MU RSI 55 despite +23.5% 30D | Most efficient move in group — gradual institutional accumulation, not a spike |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Missing AMD entry window as it dropped -19% | -19% 30D with RSI 57 is an emerging entry zone; should have flagged earlier |
| Not tracking QCOM in prior scans | QCOM was omitted from 2/22 scan; now approaching overbought — lost the entry at RSI 50-55 |
Open Questions
- Is AMD's -19% a temporary AI GPU share narrative or fundamental execution miss?
- AMAT data still missing — need separate fetch for complete ecosystem picture
- Does AVGO's -6.2% 7D pullback signal custom silicon cycle slowdown or just profit-taking?
- QCOM: is the Snapdragon AI PC thesis gaining enough traction to sustain RSI 69+?
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.