NVDA Ecosystem — Supply Chain Health
NVDA Ecosystem — Supply Chain Health
The NVDA supply chain is in a broad corrective phase. NVDA itself is down 9% in 3M sitting on its SMA200. The bright spot: networking/custom silicon tier — MRVL surging on custom AI ASIC demand, ARM parabolic on licensing. Everything else under pressure from tariffs, China restrictions, and macro rotation.
Core Supply Chain
| Symbol | Role | Price | RSI | Trend | vsSma200 | 3M% | From High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | GPU/accelerator | $171.24 | 38.8 | down | -4.4% | -9.0% | -19.3% |
| ARM | CPU IP licensing | $154.80 | 74.4 | up | +11.9% | +40.1% | -15.5% |
| AVGO | Custom ASICs/networking | $309.42 | 40.7 | down | -4.8% | -11.3% | -25.4% |
| MRVL | Custom ASICs/networking | $97.68 | 66.0 | strong-up | +20.9% | +14.0% | -5.0% |
| TSM | Foundry | $326.18 | 40.7 | weak-down | +14.1% | +8.7% | -16.4% |
| ASML | EUV lithography | $1,329.50 | 44.8 | weak-down | +28.2% | +24.9% | -14.1% |
| AMAT | Deposition/etch equipment | $338.42 | 45.2 | weak-down | +38.6% | +29.3% | -14.5% |
Supply Chain Tier Assessment
Tier 1 — NVDA (GPU core): RSI 38.8, below all SMAs, down trend. Holding just above SMA200. Golden cross still intact — long-term structure not broken, but near-term momentum negative.
Tier 2 — Foundry & Equipment (TSM, ASML, AMAT): TSM weak-down despite +14.1% above SMA200. ASML at +28.2% and AMAT at +38.6% still above long baseline. Near-term buying pressure evaporated.
Tier 3 — Custom Silicon & Networking (MRVL, AVGO): The divergence story. MRVL is strong-up, +20.9% vs SMA200, only -5% from high. Custom ASICs for hyperscalers taking share. AVGO is the opposite — down trend, -25.4% from highs.
Tier 4 — IP Licensing (ARM): RSI 74.4 overbought, +40.1% in 3M. ARM licensing to AI chip startups + smartphone recovery. Extended — entry after 10-15% pullback.
Entry Zones
| Symbol | Entry Zone | Stop | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $155–$165 | $148 | If RSI <35 with golden cross intact — oversold bounce |
| MRVL | $88–$92 | $82 | Pullback to SMA20 ($88) — clean entry |
| ARM | $130–$140 | $120 | Post-overbought cooling |
| TSM | $310–$320 | $295 | Above SMA200 support |
| ASML | $1,300–$1,350 | $1,250 | At SMA20 support; EUV monopoly |
| AVGO | $295–$310 | $275 | Near SMA200 — long-term value entry |
Action Matrix
| Action | Symbol | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Buy on weakness | MRVL | Chain's strongest momentum; custom ASIC theme |
| Wait for pullback | ARM | Overbought RSI 74.4; wrong entry point today |
| Monitor for reversal | NVDA | Near SMA200; golden cross intact |
| Patient accumulation | TSM | Foundry monopoly; tariff noise = opportunity |
| Underweight | AVGO | -25% from highs, no trend turning signal |
| Avoid | QCOM | Death cross, strong-down, -36% from highs |
Data: 2026-03-26 pre-computed summaries.
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