NVDA Ecosystem — Supply Chain Health

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NVDA Ecosystem — Supply Chain Health

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The NVDA supply chain is in a broad corrective phase. NVDA itself is down 9% in 3M sitting on its SMA200. The bright spot: networking/custom silicon tier — MRVL surging on custom AI ASIC demand, ARM parabolic on licensing. Everything else under pressure from tariffs, China restrictions, and macro rotation.

Core Supply Chain

Symbol Role Price RSI Trend vsSma200 3M% From High
NVDA GPU/accelerator $171.24 38.8 down -4.4% -9.0% -19.3%
ARM CPU IP licensing $154.80 74.4 up +11.9% +40.1% -15.5%
AVGO Custom ASICs/networking $309.42 40.7 down -4.8% -11.3% -25.4%
MRVL Custom ASICs/networking $97.68 66.0 strong-up +20.9% +14.0% -5.0%
TSM Foundry $326.18 40.7 weak-down +14.1% +8.7% -16.4%
ASML EUV lithography $1,329.50 44.8 weak-down +28.2% +24.9% -14.1%
AMAT Deposition/etch equipment $338.42 45.2 weak-down +38.6% +29.3% -14.5%

Supply Chain Tier Assessment

Tier 1 — NVDA (GPU core): RSI 38.8, below all SMAs, down trend. Holding just above SMA200. Golden cross still intact — long-term structure not broken, but near-term momentum negative.

Tier 2 — Foundry & Equipment (TSM, ASML, AMAT): TSM weak-down despite +14.1% above SMA200. ASML at +28.2% and AMAT at +38.6% still above long baseline. Near-term buying pressure evaporated.

Tier 3 — Custom Silicon & Networking (MRVL, AVGO): The divergence story. MRVL is strong-up, +20.9% vs SMA200, only -5% from high. Custom ASICs for hyperscalers taking share. AVGO is the opposite — down trend, -25.4% from highs.

Tier 4 — IP Licensing (ARM): RSI 74.4 overbought, +40.1% in 3M. ARM licensing to AI chip startups + smartphone recovery. Extended — entry after 10-15% pullback.

Entry Zones

Symbol Entry Zone Stop Rationale
NVDA $155–$165 $148 If RSI <35 with golden cross intact — oversold bounce
MRVL $88–$92 $82 Pullback to SMA20 ($88) — clean entry
ARM $130–$140 $120 Post-overbought cooling
TSM $310–$320 $295 Above SMA200 support
ASML $1,300–$1,350 $1,250 At SMA20 support; EUV monopoly
AVGO $295–$310 $275 Near SMA200 — long-term value entry

Action Matrix

Action Symbol Rationale
Buy on weakness MRVL Chain's strongest momentum; custom ASIC theme
Wait for pullback ARM Overbought RSI 74.4; wrong entry point today
Monitor for reversal NVDA Near SMA200; golden cross intact
Patient accumulation TSM Foundry monopoly; tariff noise = opportunity
Underweight AVGO -25% from highs, no trend turning signal
Avoid QCOM Death cross, strong-down, -36% from highs

Data: 2026-03-26 pre-computed summaries.

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