The AI chip complex is under pressure with NVDA in a "down" trend and AVGO/QCOM printing death crosses — but the story has two clear outliers: ARM and MRVL are bucking the selloff, posting strong-up / up trends with the strongest 30D momentum in the group. The ecosystem is separating custom silicon and IP licensing winners from commodity chip exposure.

Also tracked (from ai-infra summary): PLTR $145.94 (RSI 47.1, -11.1% vs SMA200, strong-down) | AMZN $208.95 (RSI 48.9, strong-down)

Momentum Leaders (RSI > 55)

• ARM (62.5): +36.1% in 3M, +14.3% above SMA20, RSI 62.5. IP licensing model insulated from fab/chip cyclicality. The standout in the ecosystem — every AI chip references ARM architecture. Near 52wk high (-18.8%) despite broad chip weakness. Note: death cross on long-term chart is a technical headwind, but short-term momentum clearly wins.
• MRVL (61.6): +22.7% in 30D and +16.8% in 3M — custom silicon for hyperscaler AI is the hottest theme in semis. Strong-up, golden cross, only 3.5% off 52wk high. The clearest institutional accumulation story in the NVDA ecosystem. MRVL builds the custom ASIC alternatives (for GOOG, AMZN) — this is a feature, not a bug.

Neutral / Consolidating (RSI 40-50)

• NVDA (44.1): The ecosystem anchor. Down trend, -3.0% below SMA20, -3.6% below SMA200. -7.3% in 3M and -18.5% from 52wk high. Golden cross still intact — this is a correction within an uptrend. The question is whether $170 holds as support. Consensus AI capex story intact but near-term positioning crowded.
• AMD (48.6): Weakly positive 30D (+1.6%) while peers decline — showing relative resilience. +3.0% above SMA200, golden cross. MI300X gaining datacenter share.
• TSM (45.9): The indispensable fab. -9.7% in 30D, -6.7% in 7D on tariff/geopolitical noise. +15.5% above SMA200 — structural bull case intact. Buy weakness.
• ASML (44.3): EUV monopoly. -8.5% in 7D and -8.4% in 30D — tariff fears dominating. +24.8% above SMA200. The 3M picture (+22%) says this is a secular growth name in a temporary drawdown.
• INTC (47.1): Turnaround still grinding. +17.9% in 3M, but -5.9% in 30D. +24.3% above SMA200 — the long rebuild story is intact. Foundry buildout is a long-duration bet.
• AMAT (45.9): +30.8% in 3M but -9.8% in 30D — wafer fab equipment cycle is volatile. +36.2% above SMA200. Strong structural position as semiconductor capex remains elevated.
• AMKR (47.6): Advanced packaging story — critical for HBM/AI chips. +28.1% above SMA200. -14.3% this week was ugly but 3M picture (+12.9%) shows underlying demand.
• ON (50.0): Automotive/industrial semiconductor exposure — different cycle than AI. +10.4% above SMA200, golden cross.

Oversold / Broken (RSI < 40)

• AVGO (43.1): The custom ASIC / AI networking giant hit a death cross. -11.1% in 3M, -25.9% from 52wk high. Strong-down trend is a yellow flag. But the hyperscaler AI custom silicon story (Google TPUs etc.) is not going away. RSI 43 approaching oversold.
• QCOM (36.2): Structural problem — mobile chip cycle + no dominant AI datacenter story. Strong-down, death cross, -24.5% in 3M, -37.7% from 52wk high. The weakest name in the ecosystem. Avoid until inflection.

Top Buys / Add

1. MRVL — Best momentum in the ecosystem. Custom silicon theme is institutional priority. Near 52wk high even as NVDA sells off — that's signal.
2. TSM — Geopolitical discount on an irreplaceable fab. +15.5% above SMA200 cushion.
3. NVDA — Correction in an uptrend. Golden cross. Buy when RSI approaches 40. The ecosystem lives or dies with NVDA.
4. ASML — EUV monopoly getting tariff-fear discount. +24.8% above SMA200 is your cushion.
5. ARM — IP licensing model decoupled from chip cycle. +36% in 3M, holding near highs.

Top Sells / Trim

1. QCOM — Weakest link. No AI datacenter story. Strong-down, death cross, -37.7% from 52wk high.
2. AVGO — Death cross is a warning. Trim partial, reload lower if custom ASIC thesis plays out.
3. AMAT/AMKR — WFE and packaging volatility. Reduce into oversized positions on flush weeks.

• The ecosystem split is widening: ARM and MRVL are near 52wk highs while NVDA, AVGO, QCOM pull back sharply — custom silicon / IP licensing is winning over the GPU/SoC model.
• NVDA's -7.3% in 3M is a yellow flag but not a breakdown — golden cross intact, SMA200 support at $179. A close below SMA200 would change the thesis.
• AVGO's death cross is the most concerning signal: the custom ASIC + AI networking giant printing a death cross while MRVL (same thesis) prints a golden cross suggests a market rotation within the custom silicon theme.
• Tariff fears hammering ASML (-8.5% in 7D) and TSM (-6.7%) — EUV equipment controls and Taiwan geopolitical premium creating buying opportunities in secular growth names.
• MRVL is the new market darling in this space: +22.7% in 30D, +10% above SMA20, only 3.5% from 52wk high. The hyperscaler custom chip buildout is real and MRVL is the primary beneficiary.

Data: 2026-03-31 pre-computed summaries (semis.json + ai-infra.json).