NVDA Ecosystem Scan

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NVDA Ecosystem Scan

Scan symbols 25
AMATAMDAMKRARMASMLAVGOBECEGENPHFSLRINTCMRVLMUNEENVDAOKLOONQCOMSMCISMRSTXTLNTSMVSTWDC
Watchlists 1
@nvda-ecosystem
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 53 rows · screens, not recommendations ported fromresearch/classic/scans/2026-05-01-nvda-ecosystem.md

NVDA itself has gone quiet (RSI 53, -1.5% 7D) while its ecosystem ripped: AMD RSI 79 (+66% 30D), MRVL RSI 77 (+54% 30D, +110% 3M), ARM RSI 67 (+42% 30D, +97% 3M), AMKR RSI 65 (+52% 30D), AMAT RSI 53 (+11% 30D), TSM RSI 62 (+9% 30D). The "NVDA = ecosystem" thesis split: NVDA has cooled to a digestion phase while custom-ASIC (MRVL/AMD), packaging (AMKR), HBM/storage (MU/STX/WDC), and the power tail (BE +114% 30D, ON +66% 30D) carry the breakout. ASML and TSM remain the most balanced names — manufacturing duopoly, RSI 51-62, still healthy.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟠 NVDA RESTING, ECOSYSTEM CARRYING — Mag-7 chip is digesting; supply-chain tail is parabolic. The bid has rotated from the index name to the picks-and-shovels of its supply chain.
Leaders INTC (RSI 87.5, +98% 30D — note: ecosystem-adjacent, foundry play), AMD (RSI 79.4, +66% 30D), BE (RSI 77.7, +114% 30D — power tail), MRVL (RSI 76.7, +54% 30D, +110% 3M), MU (RSI 71.5, +48% 30D), STX (RSI 70.7, +29% 30D, near ATH), AVGO (RSI 69, +34% 30D), AMKR (RSI 65, +52% 30D), ARM (RSI 67, +42% 30D), AMAT (52% above SMA200)
Laggards SMR (RSI 36.5, -83% from ATH — power tail break), TLN (RSI 49, -28% from ATH), VST (RSI 52, -28% from ATH), CEG (RSI 55, -25% from ATH), QCOM (RSI 55, -35% from ATH, death cross — not really NVDA-adjacent), SMCI (RSI 51, -58% from ATH)
Key insight NVDA has been replaced as the leading edge of its own ecosystem. RSI 53, -1.5% 7D, +12% 30D — completely calm. Meanwhile MRVL +54% 30D, AMD +66% 30D, BE +114% 30D, AMKR +52% 30D. The smart-money read: positioning has rotated FROM the megacap name INTO supply-chain leverage points. NVDA is now a "follow" not a "lead" — when this happens in mid-cycle thesis, it's usually constructive (broadening); when in late cycle, it's a distribution tell.

Price Table

Core (NVDA + Direct Peers)

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vsSMA20 7D% 30D% Signal
NVDA $198.45 53.0 $197.22 +0.6% -1.5% +11.9% 🟡 Cooled to neutral, golden cross intact
AMD $360.54 79.4 ↑ $284.89 +26.6% +2.3% +65.8% 🔴 Extended, near ATH
AVGO $421.28 69.0 $390.85 +7.8% +0.9% +33.9% 🟠 Custom AI ASIC, near ATH

Manufacturing & Packaging

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vsSMA20 7D% 30D% Signal
TSM $369.57 62.0 $343.44 +7.6% +8.0% +8.9% 🟠 Manufacturing duopoly
ASML $1,427.02 51.4 $1430.70 -0.3% -0.7% +8.6% 🟢 EUV monopoly, healthy entry
AMAT $389.08 52.8 $391.25 -0.6% -4.7% +11.7% 🟢 Equipment leader, healthy entry
AMKR $71.09 65.2 $64.66 +9.9% -9.0% +52.2% 🟠 Packaging, +296% 1Y

Memory & Storage (Sub-supercycle)

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vsSMA20 7D% 30D% Signal
MU $542.21 71.5 ↑ $461.77 +17.4% +3.0% +48.1% 🔴 Memory monster, near ATH
STX $513.28 70.7 ↑ $430.53 +19.2% +9.0% +28.9% 🟠 At ATH (-0.75%)
WDC $350.16 67.6 $302.84 +15.6% +11.1% +22.3% 🟠 At ATH (-0.49%)

Compute Adjacents

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vsSMA20 7D% 30D% Signal
MRVL $164.95 76.7 ↑ $141.94 +16.2% +1.8% +54.1% 🔴 Custom ASIC, +110% 3M
ARM $211.18 66.9 $178.59 +18.2% -8.0% +41.6% 🟠 +97% 3M, pulled back 7D
INTC $99.62 87.5 ↑ $71.13 +40.1% +14.8% +97.7% 🔴 Foundry parabolic, ecosystem-adjacent
QCOM $133.05 54.5 $128.84 +3.3% +4.3% +2.8% 🟡 Death cross, AI mobile unclear
SMCI $25.97 51.3 $24.46 +6.2% +11.5% -18.5% 🟡 -58% from ATH, credibility issues

Power Tail (NVDA = electricity)

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vsSMA20 7D% 30D% Signal
BE $290.52 77.7 ↑ $211.63 +37.3% +21.2% +114.2% 🔴 Bloom Energy parabolic, +1667% 1Y
ON $103.03 81.7 ↑ $83.15 +23.9% +3.7% +65.7% 🔴 Power chips, near ATH
CEG $307.81 55.2 $293.73 +4.8% +6.7% +12.8% 🟡 Constellation, -25% from ATH
VST $158.20 51.7 $155.10 +2.0% +2.2% -2.2% 🟡 Vistra, -28% from ATH
TLN $326.08 48.6 $323.00 +1.0% -0.7% +2.7% 🟡 Talen, -28% from ATH
NEE $96.95 60.1 $93.61 +3.6% +2.5% +4.1% 🟠 NextEra, near ATH
SMR $9.58 36.5 ↓ $10.74 -10.8% -11.1% -20.0% 🔴 Broken, -83% from ATH
OKLO $70.40 56.3 $62.70 +12.3% -1.3% +46.3% 🟡 SMR speculative, -64% from ATH
FSLR $211.71 61.5 $196.15 +7.9% +5.3% +8.4% 🟠 First Solar, -26% from ATH
ENPH $33.85 46.3 $33.15 +2.1% -7.6% -3.1% 🟡 -38% from ATH

Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI <25)

EMPTY.

Oversold (RSI 25-40) — narrow

SMR (36.5). Only one. The "AI power" story has a clear loser (NuScale's own thesis broke), while the rest of the power tail is mixed (CEG/VST/TLN around RSI 50-55, BE/ON parabolic).

Neutral (RSI 40-65) — entries live here

ASML (51), AMAT (53), NVDA (53), QCOM (55), CEG (55), OKLO (56), NEE (60), FSLR (62), TSM (62). The ASML-AMAT pair is the cleanest entry pair in the scan.

Extended (RSI 65+) — bubble watch

INTC (88), ON (82), AMD (79), BE (78), MRVL (77), MU (71), STX (71), AVGO (69), WDC (68), ARM (67), AMKR (65). Eleven names. Most are in the ecosystem's outer ring, NOT NVDA itself.

Entry Zones

Stock Entry Zone Thesis
NVDA $185-195 Core compute, RSI 53 cooled, +12% 30D — best mega-cap entry
ASML $1,350-1,420 EUV monopoly, RSI 51, golden cross intact
AMAT $370-395 Equipment leader, RSI 53, healthy after 30D run
TSM $345-365 Manufacturing duopoly, RSI 62
AVGO $390-410 Custom AI ASIC, RSI 69 — entry on dip
CEG $280-300 Power tail laggard, RSI 55, -25% from ATH — risk: ATH was already priced
VST $150-160 Vistra, RSI 52, -28% from ATH — same risk

Action Matrix

Stock Signal Action Notes
NVDA 🟡 Neutral 📈 Accumulate RSI 53, -1.5% 7D — cleanest mega-cap add
ASML 🟢 Healthy ✅ Buy RSI 51, golden cross, healthiest entry
AMAT 🟢 Healthy ✅ Buy RSI 53, below SMA20
TSM 🟠 Strong 📈 Accumulate Foundry duopoly, RSI 62
AVGO 🟠 Strong 🔒 Hold Custom ASIC, RSI 69 — already extended
AMD 🔴 RSI 79 🔒 Hold Don't add at +66% 30D
MRVL 🔴 RSI 77 🔒 Hold +110% 3M — earnings sensitivity
MU 🔴 RSI 71 🔒 Hold Memory monster, near ATH
STX/WDC 🔴 At ATH 🔒 Hold Storage supercycle — don't chase
ARM 🟠 Pulled in 🔍 Watch -8% 7D after 97% 3M run — could be entry
AMKR 🟠 Strong 🔒 Hold Packaging, +296% 1Y
BE 🔴 RSI 78 ⚠️ Avoid chase +1667% 1Y, parabolic
ON 🔴 RSI 82 🔒 Hold Near ATH, +66% 30D
CEG/VST/TLN 🟡 Laggards 🔍 Watch All -25-28% from ATH; may be entries IF power tail re-bid
SMR 🔴 Broken ❌ Don't catch -83% from ATH, broken thesis
INTC 🔴 RSI 87 ⚠️ Avoid chase Adjacent foundry play, parabolic
QCOM 🟡 Death cross ⚠️ Avoid -35% from ATH, AI mobile unclear

What Changed (vs Apr 28)

  • NVDA cooled meaningfully. RSI 71 → 53 in three days, -1.5% 7D. The flagship name has stopped leading.
  • The ecosystem extended. AMD, MRVL, AMKR, MU, STX, WDC all pushed further into stretched territory.
  • The power tail bifurcated harder. BE +21% 7D (now RSI 78). SMR -11% 7D (now RSI 36, -83% from ATH). Same "AI needs power" thesis splitting cleanly into winner and loser.
  • ASML and AMAT remain the best entry pair. Both RSI ~51-53, both below SMA20, both with golden crosses intact. They were the same entry pair Apr 28 — now we're three more days into the digestion.
  • CEG/VST/TLN re-emerged as potential power-laggard entries. Apr 28 they were quieter; today they're sitting at -25-28% from ATH with neutral RSI. If you believe the power-tail rotation continues, this is where the rotation goes next.

The scan-level read: NVDA has handed the baton to its supply chain. Best entry today is the boring middle — ASML + AMAT — and the laggard re-test is CEG/VST/TLN. The parabolic names (AMD/MRVL/MU/INTC/BE/ON) are holds, not adds.

10 events
DateTypeEvent
Apr 28 ScanAI Scan May 29 ScanAI Scan May 29 ScanMonster Scan May 29 ScanAI Infrastructure Scan Apr 26 ScanMonster Scan Mar 20 ScanAI Scan Jun 16 ScanAI Scan May 29 ScanNVDA Ecosystem Scan Jun 20 ScanAI Scan Mar 11 ScanAI Scan

No direct external sources are attached to this read.