5 — NVDA ECOSYSTEM
5 — NVDA ECOSYSTEM
(semis.json + ai-infra.json combined) 2026-04-14 | Hormuz blockade context The NVDA ecosystem just had its best week in months — and Hormuz barely registers as a risk for chips. The real story is that the AI buildout is re-accelerating after Q1 digestion. MRVL printed an extraordinary move: +43.5% 30D, RSI 80.7, near all-time highs. INTC is up +42.4% 30D on deal speculation and process recovery. AMKR is exploding +35.4% 30D. AVGO is up +17.1% 7D. This is a monsoon, not a mist. The question is whether MRVL and INTC are chaseable at these levels — the answer is no, not now.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 NVDA ecosystem is in full-on AI buildout re-acceleration — multiple names at or near 52wk highs |
| Key insight | MRVL (RSI 80.7, +43.5% 30D, +58.4% vs SMA200) and INTC (RSI 77.4↑, +42.4% 30D, +79% vs SMA200) are severely overbought — do not chase. NVDA, TSM, ASML, AMAT are the "healthy monsters" — extended but not overheated. PLTR is the only broken name in the AI-infra universe (-25.8% 3M). |
Price Table — Semis Core
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | RSI | 52wk Hi% | Trend | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $189.31 | +6.7% | +3.3% | +3.4% | 62.1 | -10.8% | strong-up | 🟢 Leader |
| AMD | $246.83 | +11.2% | +25.6% | +10.4% | 71.0 | -7.6% | strong-up | 🟠 Extended |
| INTC | $65.18 | +22.9% | +42.4% | +33.8% | 77.4 ↑ | -0.7% | strong-up | 🔴 Overbought |
| TSM | $369.57 | +8.0% | +8.9% | +13.3% | 62.0 | -5.3% | strong-up | 🟢 Monster |
| AVGO | $379.75 | +19.3% | +17.1% | +12.0% | 73.1 | -8.4% | up | 🟠 Extended |
| MRVL | $131.30 | +18.8% | +43.5% | +61.8% | 80.7 ↑ | -1.4% | strong-up | 🔴 Overbought |
| ARM | $157.58 | +0.7% | +29.5% | +50.1% | 64.2 | -14.0% | up | 🟠 Extended |
| QCOM | $131.24 | +0.7% | +1.4% | -19.7% | 50.2 | -36.3% | strong-down | 🟡 Laggard |
| ASML | $1,500.20 | +13.9% | +9.1% | +18.9% | 63.2 | -3.0% | strong-up | 🟢 Monster |
| AMAT | $395.73 | +14.6% | +14.3% | +31.3% | 64.3 | -2.8% | strong-up | 🟢 Monster |
| AMKR | $60.44 | +21.7% | +35.4% | +24.4% | 72.0 | -0.1% | strong-up | 🟠 Extended |
| ON | $71.02 | +8.2% | +18.6% | +17.2% | 68.3 | -3.7% | strong-up | 🟠 Extended |
Price Table — AI Infra
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | RSI | 52wk Hi% | Trend | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | $239.89 | +12.3% | +13.3% | +1.4% | 72.3 | -7.2% | up | 🟠 Extended |
| NVDA | $189.31 | +6.7% | +3.3% | +3.4% | 62.1 | -10.8% | strong-up | 🟢 Leader |
| ASML | $1,500.20 | +13.9% | +9.1% | +18.9% | 63.2 | -3.0% | strong-up | 🟢 Monster |
| TSM | $369.57 | +8.0% | +8.9% | +13.3% | 62.0 | -5.3% | strong-up | 🟢 Monster |
| PLTR | $132.37 | -14.2% | -13.3% | -25.8% | 38.6 | -36.2% | strong-down | 🔴 Breakdown |
| MRVL | $131.30 | +18.8% | +43.5% | +61.8% | 80.7 ↑ | -1.4% | strong-up | 🔴 Overbought |
| ARM | $157.58 | +0.7% | +29.5% | +50.1% | 64.2 | -14.0% | up | 🟠 Extended |
| TAC | $13.68 | +3.6% | +9.7% | +13.4% | 58.9 | -23.5% | up | 🟡 Emerging |
Tier Analysis
Tier 1 — The Healthy Monsters (NVDA, TSM, ASML, AMAT) These are the "extended but not overheated" names. RSI in the 62-64 range — momentum without extremes. NVDA: RSI 62.1, +6.4% vs SMA20, only -10.8% from 52wk high. The H100/B200 demand cycle is real and unrelenting. TSM: RSI 62, +13.3% 3M — every AI chip flows through TSMC fabs. ASML: RSI 63.2, +18.9% 3M, near 52wk high — EUV monopoly, no substitutes. AMAT: RSI 64.3, +31.3% 3M, -2.8% from 52wk high — wafer fab equipment is the picks-and-shovels picks.
These are not buys at current levels if you don't own them — but they're not sells either. Own them, hold them, add on any meaningful RSI dip toward 50.
Tier 2 — The Overheated (MRVL, INTC, AMKR) MRVL (RSI 80.7) — extraordinary custom ASIC and networking chip momentum. The move is real (Amazon/Google custom silicon win), but +43.5% in 30 days and 58.4% above SMA200 means this has priced in a lot of good news. Any miss on guidance will punish hard. Do not initiate new positions here.
INTC (RSI 77.4) — the most interesting situation in semis right now. Intel's foundry turnaround + potential ARM partnership speculation drove +42.4% in 30 days. At -0.7% from 52wk high with RSI 77, this is one earnings miss away from a -15% gap down. High conviction longs should hold, but no new buys.
AMKR (RSI 72.0, +35.4% 30D, essentially at 52wk high) — advanced packaging is real AI infrastructure, but this move has run far and fast.
Tier 3 — Extended but Watchable (AMD, ARM, AVGO, ON) AMD: RSI 71, +25.6% 30D, +15.8% above SMA20 — MI300 demand accelerating. RSI near overbought but not as extreme as MRVL/INTC. If RSI cools to 60 this becomes buyable again. AVGO: RSI 73.1, +19.3% 7D on networking/custom silicon demand surge. XPU business is the new story. Overbought short-term but thesis is multi-year. ARM: RSI 64.2, +29.5% 30D, +50.1% 3M — royalty stream on AI inference chips is compounding. Death cross is a technical flag but the business momentum overrides it here.
Tier 4 — Laggards and Broken (QCOM, PLTR) QCOM: RSI 50.2, -19.7% 3M, -36.3% from 52wk high, death cross. Mobile AI is the thesis but handset upgrade cycles are slow. Not a buy yet — needs RSI to build toward 55 before considering.
PLTR (ai-infra): RSI 38.6, -14.2% 7D, -13.3% 30D, -25.8% 3M, -36.2% from 52wk high, death cross, strong-down. PLTR was the market darling; now it's taking the hardest hit in the AI basket. Government contract concerns + valuation compression. This is approaching an entry zone (RSI 35-40), but the -19.3% below SMA200 is a red flag. Watch closely.
Hormuz Lens: The Strait has minimal direct impact on semiconductor supply chains (Taiwan/Korea/Netherlands fab geography is irrelevant to Hormuz). The indirect risk is if Hormuz-driven oil spike raises energy costs at power-hungry fabs — but this is noise vs. the AI capex signal.
Entry Zones
DO NOT CHASE — Wait for RSI Cooldown
| Stock | Current | RSI | 30D | Status | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL | $131.30 | 80.7 ↑ | +43.5% | Overbought | ⚠️ Avoid | Set alert at RSI < 65 / price ~$110 |
| INTC | $65.18 | 77.4 ↑ | +42.4% | Overbought | ⚠️ Avoid | Don't chase — wait for earnings confirmation |
| AVGO | $379.75 | 73.1 | +17.1% | Extended | ⚠️ Avoid | Core longs hold; no new buys here |
| AMD | $246.83 | 71.0 | +25.6% | Near Overbought | ⚠️ Caution | RSI needs to cool to 60 for clean entry |
HEALTHY — Add on Any RSI Dip Toward 50
| Stock | Current | Zone | RSI | 30D | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $189.31 | <$180 | 62.1 | +3.3% | 🔒 Hold | Core position; add if RSI dips to 52-55 |
| TSM | $369.57 | <$350 | 62.0 | +8.9% | 🔒 Hold | Fab monopoly; add on dips |
| ASML | $1,500.20 | <$1,400 | 63.2 | +9.1% | 🔒 Hold | EUV monopoly; only add on 5%+ pullback |
| AMAT | $395.73 | <$370 | 64.3 | +14.3% | 🔒 Hold | WFE picks-and-shovels; near 52wk high |
WATCH — Broken Name Approaching Entry
| Stock | Current | Zone | RSI | 30D | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR | $132.37 | <$125 | 38.6 | -13.3% | 🔍 Watch | Approaching entry; confirm RSI stabilizes at 35+ |
| QCOM | $131.24 | <$120 | 50.2 | +1.4% | 🔍 Watch | Mobile AI thesis needs RSI confirmation |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | NVDA, TSM, ASML, AMAT | Core AI infrastructure — healthy monsters, hold + add on dips |
| 🔒 HOLD | ARM, ON | Extended but real thesis; don't trim unnecessarily |
| 🔒 HOLD | AMZN | Hyperscaler capex leader — overbought short-term but thesis is years |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | (none yet) | Wait for overheated names to cool |
| 🔍 WATCH | PLTR | RSI 38.6 approaching zone; confirm floor before entering |
| 🔍 WATCH | QCOM | Needs RSI > 55 to confirm mobile AI re-rate |
| ⚠️ AVOID | MRVL, INTC | RSI 77-81 — severely overbought, don't initiate |
| ⚠️ CAUTION | AMD, AVGO, AMKR | Extended but not broken — hold only, no new buys |
*All data from pre-computed summaries as of 2026-04-13. No percentages hand-computed — all figures sourced directly from .json.
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