AI Scan
Scan
AI Scan
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 59 rows · screens, not recommendations ported fromresearch/classic/scans/2026-04-13-ai-scan.md
A split-personality AI sector: hardware / infrastructure darlings (MRVL +43% 30D, INTC +42% 30D, AMD +26% 30D, TSM +9% 30D) are in parabolic strong-up moves, while software-layer AI names (NOW -22% 30D, SNOW -23% 30D, CRM -13% 30D) are in deep strong-down trends with RSI readings approaching oversold. Two completely different markets wearing the same "AI" label.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟠 BIFURCATED — Infrastructure winners ripping; software/SaaS layer being sold hard. MRVL, INTC, AMD at or near all-time highs. NOW, SNOW, CRM down 20-30%+ in 30 days. |
| Hardware leaders | MRVL (RSI 81, +43% 30D), INTC (RSI 77, +42% 30D), AMD (RSI 71, +26% 30D), TSM (RSI 62, +9% 30D) |
| Software laggards | NOW (RSI 33, -22% 30D), SNOW (RSI 35, -23% 30D), PLTR (RSI 39, -13% 30D), CRM (RSI 38, -13% 30D) |
| Hormuz watch | AI infrastructure directly exposed to oil shock via data center energy costs. NVDA supply chain runs through Taiwan Strait — separate risk entirely. |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | RSI | vs SMA20 | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $189.31 | +6.7% | +3.3% | +3.4% | 62.1 | +6.4% | strong-up | 🟠 Core position, holding well |
| AMD | $246.83 | +11.2% | +25.6% | +10.4% | 71.0 | +15.8% | strong-up | 🔴 Overbought — don't chase |
| AVGO | $379.75 | +19.3% | +17.1% | +12.0% | 73.1 | +16.9% | up | 🔴 Parabolic, death cross oddly — watch carefully |
| MRVL | $131.30 | +18.8% | +43.5% | +61.8% | 80.7 | +29.1% | strong-up | 🔴 Extreme overbought. Near 52wk high. |
| ARM | $157.58 | +0.7% | +29.5% | +50.1% | 64.2 | +10.3% | up | 🟠 Strong momentum, digesting |
| SMCI | $25.97 | +11.5% | -18.5% | -8.1% | 51.3 | +6.2% | strong-down | 🔴 Death cross, -58% from 52wk high — fallen knife |
| QCOM | $131.24 | +0.7% | +1.4% | -19.7% | 50.2 | +2.1% | strong-down | 🟡 Death cross, -36% from high — mobile AI tailwind not enough |
| INTC | $65.18 | +22.9% | +42.4% | +33.8% | 77.4 | +32.6% | strong-up | 🔴 Extreme overbought — near 52wk high. Restructuring catalyst? |
| TSM | $369.57 | +8.0% | +8.9% | +13.3% | 62.0 | +7.6% | strong-up | 🟠 Golden cross, clean momentum |
| ASML | $1,500.20 | +13.9% | +9.1% | +18.9% | 63.2 | +9.9% | strong-up | 🟠 EUV monopoly, strong-up, good entry after consolidation |
| AMZN | $239.89 | +12.3% | +13.3% | +1.4% | 72.3 | +12.2% | up | 🔴 AWS bid — overbought short-term |
| MSFT | $384.37 | -0.5% | -3.9% | -16.1% | 51.5 | +2.1% | strong-down | 🔴 Worst large-cap AI name — -30.8% from 52wk high |
| GOOGL | $321.31 | +6.3% | +5.2% | -4.3% | 63.6 | +7.0% | strong-up | 🟠 Cloud + Gemini momentum |
| META | $634.53 | +9.1% | +1.1% | +3.2% | 59.1 | +7.1% | weak-up | 🟡 Death cross, -20% from high — Llama monetization lag |
| PLTR | $132.37 | -14.2% | -13.3% | -25.8% | 38.6 | -9.8% | strong-down | 🔴 Death cross, oversold-approaching — watch for bounce |
| AI | $8.47 | -4.8% | -3.8% | -39.1% | 43.7 | -0.1% | strong-down | 🔴 -72% from 52wk high. Thesis failure. |
| SNOW | $134.24 | -18.6% | -23.0% | -34.9% | 34.5 | -14.0% | strong-down | 🟢 Approaching oversold — broken thesis or entry? |
| DDOG | $110.08 | -9.4% | -13.0% | -10.1% | 40.6 | -8.4% | strong-down | 🔴 Death cross, extended decline |
| MDB | $236.14 | -9.5% | -11.5% | -39.0% | 37.8 | -6.0% | strong-down | 🔴 Deep strong-down, death cross, -47% from high |
| PATH | $10.12 | — | — | — | 39.7 | — | strong-down | 🔴 Strong-down |
| CRM | $172.82 | -11.3% | -12.7% | -27.7% | 37.9 | -6.4% | strong-down | 🔴 Death cross, -42% from high |
| NOW | $89.06 | -19.3% | -22.5% | -33.8% | 32.9 | -13.9% | strong-down | 🟢 RSI approaching oversold on massive decline — research entry |
| ADBE | $240.11 | -8.5% | -4.7% | -21.1% | 44.5 | -0.6% | strong-down | 🔴 Death cross, -43% from high |
| WDAY | $119.92 | -13.1% | -10.3% | -38.2% | 38.4 | -6.2% | strong-down | 🔴 -57% from 52wk high. Broken. |
| ZS | $116.68 | -12.1% | -25.5% | -46.1% | 26.2 | -17.9% | strong-down | 🟢 RSI 26 — approaching capitulation. Cybersec + AI crossover thesis. |
| SOUN | $6.84 | -7.2% | -9.3% | -39.4% | 46.6 | +1.9% | strong-down | 🔴 -69% from high. Speculative AI voice play fading. |
| BBAI | $3.35 | -8.3% | -15.2% | -46.5% | 40.6 | -4.6% | strong-down | 🔴 -64% from high. Risk-on did not rescue. |
Tier Analysis
Parabolic / Extreme Overbought (RSI 70+) — Don't Chase
- MRVL (RSI 80.7) — Custom ASIC/networking monopoly. +43% 30D, +62% 3M. Near 52wk high. Extraordinary performance but RSI at extreme. Thesis: hyperscaler custom silicon. Hold, don't add.
- INTC (RSI 77.4) — +42% 30D. This is remarkable for a restructuring turnaround. What's driving it? Watch for Q2 earnings catalyst.
- AMD (RSI 71) — +25.6% 30D. Data center GPU market share gains from MSFT/Meta workload diversification thesis.
- AVGO (RSI 73.1) — Death cross contradicts the RSI. +17% 30D suggests a new move forming. Mixed signal — watch closely.
- AMZN (RSI 72.3) — AWS AI services accelerating. +12.3% 7D is a big week. Overbought short-term.
Strong-Up / Healthy (RSI 60-70)
- NVDA (RSI 62.1) — Surprisingly the most "reasonable" of the hardware names. +6.7% 7D, still in strong-up trend, golden cross. Best risk/reward in AI hardware at these levels.
- ASML (RSI 63.2) — EUV monopoly. +13.9% 7D, +18.9% 3M. European AI infrastructure play.
- GOOGL (RSI 63.6) — Quietly strong. Cloud + Gemini search integration. Best large-cap risk/reward.
- TSM (RSI 62) — Foundry monopoly. +8% 7D, strong-up. Taiwan risk is Hormuz-adjacent (two separate strait risks).
- ARM (RSI 64.2) — +29.5% 30D, +50% 3M. ISA licensing is the real AI royalty business.
Approaching Oversold / Falling Knives (RSI 27-40) — Differentiate Carefully
- NOW (RSI 32.9) — ServiceNow -33.8% 3M, -57.9% from 52wk high. This is a blue-chip enterprise software company. At RSI 33, approaching a tradeable bounce zone. Thesis intact if AI workflow automation remains a C-suite priority.
- SNOW (RSI 34.5) — -52% from 52wk high, -34.9% 3M. Data cloud AI story not landing with market. Falling knife.
- ZS (RSI 26.2) — Zscaler -65% from 52wk high, -46% 3M. RSI 26 is approaching capitulation. Security + AI crossover thesis could resurface but needs stabilization.
- PLTR (RSI 38.6) — -25.8% 3M, death cross. Government AI cuts narrative. Momentum completely broken.
- MDB (RSI 37.8), CRM (RSI 37.9), WDAY (RSI 38.4) — All deep strong-down. No entry signals yet.
Broken Thesis — Avoid
- AI (C3.ai, RSI 43.7) — -72% from 52wk high, -39% 3M. The company named "AI" is losing the AI race.
- SMCI (RSI 51.3) — -58% from 52wk high. Accounting issues + competition. Don't let a 7D bounce fool you.
- SOUN / BBAI — Small-cap AI speculatives that couldn't rally even in a risk-on market. Exit candidates.
Entry Zones
EXTREME OVERBOUGHT — Stand Down
| Stock | Current | RSI | 30D% | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL | $131.30 | 81 | +43% | ⚠️ Avoid | Near 52wk high. Custom ASIC thesis intact but don't add here. |
| INTC | $65.18 | 77 | +42% | ⚠️ Avoid | Restructuring bounce — extraordinary. Wait for RSI < 55 for re-entry. |
| AMD | $246.83 | 71 | +26% | ⚠️ Avoid | Strong thesis but overbought. Wait for $220 pullback. |
APPROACHING OVERSOLD — Research Entry Zone
| Stock | Current | Entry Zone | RSI | 30D% | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOW | $89.06 | $80-90 | 33 | -22% | 🔍 Research | Blue-chip enterprise AI. RSI 33 near-term bottom. -58% from high. Check earnings revisions. |
| ZS | $116.68 | $100-120 | 26 | -26% | 🔍 Research | RSI 26 approaching capitulation. Cybersec + AI crossover. -65% from high is extreme. |
| NVDA | $189.31 | $175-190 | 62 | +3.3% | ✅ Strong Buy | Best risk/reward in AI hardware. Reasonable RSI, golden cross, supply chain intact. |
| GOOGL | $321.31 | $300-325 | 63.6 | +5.2% | 📈 Accumulate | Cloud AI + Gemini. Large-cap with best forward risk/reward. |
| ASML | $1,500 | $1,400-1,500 | 63.2 | +9.1% | 📈 Accumulate | EUV monopoly, golden cross. Any pullback is a buy. |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 🟠 | ✅ Strong Buy | Best combination of momentum + reasonable RSI in AI hardware |
| ASML | 🟠 | 📈 Accumulate | EUV monopoly, strong-up, golden cross. Core long. |
| GOOGL | 🟠 | 📈 Accumulate | Cloud + AI strongest large-cap setup |
| TSM | 🟠 | 🔒 Hold | Foundry monopoly. Hormuz ≠ Taiwan Strait — track separately |
| ARM | 🟠 | 🔒 Hold | +50% 3M — don't sell but death cross is a flag |
| MRVL | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | RSI 81 — parabolic. Core longs hold, no new buys |
| INTC | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | RSI 77, +42% 30D. Wait for digestion at RSI <55 |
| AMD | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | RSI 71, +26% 30D. Don't chase the ASIC/data center narrative here |
| NOW | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | RSI 33, blue-chip enterprise AI — research entry zone developing |
| ZS | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | RSI 26 capitulation approaching — flag for deep dive |
| MSFT | 🔴 | ❌ Don't Buy | -30.8% from 52wk high, strong-down, death cross. Avoid. |
| META | 🟡 | ⏳ Waiting | Death cross + -20% from high. Need RSI < 35 for entry signal. |
| SMCI | 🔴 | ❌ Don't Buy | -58% from high, broken trend, accounting uncertainty |
| AI | 🔴 | ❌ Don't Buy | -72% from 52wk high. Thesis failure. |
What Changed
Prior scans showed NVDA as the undisputed leader. Now the sector has fragmented dramatically. Hardware infrastructure has gone parabolic while enterprise AI software collapses. INTC's +42% 30D is the biggest surprise — a restructuring turnaround trading like a momentum name. MRVL's +62% 3M reflects the hyperscaler custom ASIC thesis becoming consensus. Meanwhile, NOW -33% 3M and SNOW -35% 3M represent a severe repricing of "AI software premium" multiples. The market is saying: the hardware/infrastructure layer is winning. The software monetization layer hasn't proven its economics yet.
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| INTC +42% 30D (RSI 77) | What catalyst? Restructuring? Design win? Needs investigation before chasing |
| MRVL RSI 81 + golden cross | Custom silicon for hyperscalers is the single most confirmed AI sub-thesis in the market |
| NOW RSI 33 (-58% from high) | Blue-chip enterprise AI at potential capitulation — contrarian opportunity if earnings hold |
| ZS RSI 26 (-65% from high) | Cybersecurity AI crossover being completely abandoned — may resurface with next breach headline |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Treating "AI" as monolithic | Hardware infrastructure and software monetization are in completely different cycles |
| Chasing AMZN/AMD on RSI 72-73 | The time to buy was the March pullback, not +12-25% later |
Open Questions
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.