1 — BIOTECH SCAN

Scan

1 — BIOTECH SCAN

Scan symbols 13
ABBVALNYAMGNBIIBBMRNBNTXGILDINCYLLYMRNANVOREGNVRTX
Watchlists 1
@biotech-scan
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 28 rows · screens, not recommendations ported fromresearch/classic/scans/2026-04-13-biotech-scan.md

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SCAN 1 — BIOTECH-SCAN

2026-04-14 | Hormuz blockade day 1 — oil +7%, equities +1%, gold flat Biotech is a Hormuz spectator — sector correlation to crude is near zero. What matters here is that a flight-to-safety bid lifted defensive healthcare adjacent names, while growth-biotech remains a falling knife. The divergence between profitable large-cap biotech and speculative names is widening fast.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Sector is mixed — large-cap defensible, small-cap speculative in freefall
Key insight NVO is down -53% from 52wk high, death cross confirmed — GLP-1 thesis under sustained pressure. MRNA is a rising outlier (+25% 3M) with golden cross. ABBV and GILD are approaching entry zones on RSI softness.

Price Table

Stock Price 7D 30D 3M RSI 52wk Hi% Trend Status
ABBV $206.47 -0.0% -6.8% -6.2% 40.1 -15.7% down 🟡 Neutral
GILD $139.03 -1.0% -4.3% +12.7% 46.5 -11.6% weak-down 🟡 Neutral
AMGN $349.82 +1.1% -4.5% +7.1% 45.8 -10.6% weak-down 🟡 Neutral
REGN $746.46 -2.1% -1.4% -0.9% 45.2 -9.1% weak-down 🟡 Neutral
BIIB $176.37 -2.0% -3.8% +4.2% 44.1 -12.9% weak-down 🟡 Neutral
LLY $929.55 +0.8% -6.0% -13.3% 45.2 -18.0% weak-down 🟡 Pullback
VRTX $440.05 -0.6% -5.6% -2.1% 44.1 -13.9% weak-down 🟡 Neutral
NVO $37.98 +1.2% +2.0% -33.2% 51.6 -53.4% strong-down 🔴 Breakdown
BNTX $96.70 +4.7% +6.8% -6.5% 54.9 -23.0% strong-down 🟡 Bounce
MRNA $50.68 +3.0% -4.9% +24.9% 49.9 -14.9% strong-up 🟢 Emerging
ALNY $333.00 -3.2% +4.4% -9.2% 55.2 -32.8% weak-up 🟡 Neutral
BMRN $54.88 -3.1% -4.4% -2.1% 42.5 -17.2% down 🟡 Weak
INCY $95.55 +0.6% +2.7% -9.8% 51.3 -14.9% weak-down 🟡 Neutral

Tier Analysis

Tier 1 — Defensible Large-Cap (Hold / Accumulate Zone) GILD, AMGN, REGN, BIIB, INCY — RSI in the 44-52 range, golden crosses intact, no death crosses. These are not falling knives; they're large-cap profitable biotechs drifting. Pullbacks are buyable if RSI breaches 35.

Tier 2 — Watch Closely (Approaching Entry) ABBV — RSI 40.1, down -6.8% 30D, -15.7% from 52wk high. Skye/Rinvoq cycle concerns are weighing, but cash flow is exceptional. Sub-$200 would be a compelling entry. LLY — RSI 45.2, but -13.3% over 3 months. GLP-1 pricing pressure + Hormuz-driven supply chain anxiety (API ingredients from Middle East exposure) makes this a "wait, don't rush" situation. Entry below $900 starts to get interesting. VRTX — RSI 44.1, -13.9% from 52wk high. CF monopoly intact, pain franchise building. Thesis is solid; price is retreating on macro noise.

Tier 3 — Broken Thesis / Avoid NVO — Death cross, -53.4% from 52wk high, -33.2% in 3 months. This is not a dip — it's a structural repricing as tirzepatide data and US formulary dynamics shifted. Do not buy the knife. BMRN — RSI 42.5, multi-year underperformer. -44.6% alpha over 3 years. Skip.

Tier 4 — Speculative Upside MRNA — RSI 49.9, golden cross, +24.9% 3M, +105% 1Y. mRNA lifecycle thesis re-igniting. Only 15% off 52wk high. This is the outlier that's working. Not a chase — watch for RSI confirmation above 55. CRSP — RSI 61.6, +12.9% vs SMA20. Gene-editing names catching a bid. Still -2.7% vs SMA200 so not yet a full breakout.

Entry Zones

APPROACHING OVERSOLD (RSI 35-45) — Watch Closely

Stock Current Zone RSI 30D Action Notes
ABBV $206.47 <$200 40.1 -6.8% 📈 Accumulate Dividend + CF fortress; Skye concerns priced in
VRTX $440.05 <$430 44.1 -5.6% 🔍 Watch CF monopoly intact; pullback to SMA200 is the zone
LLY $929.55 <$900 45.2 -6.0% 🔍 Watch GLP-1 leader; needs to find floor before committing
BIIB $176.37 <$170 44.1 -3.8% 🔍 Watch Lecanemab ramp is slow but real
BMRN $54.88 Avoid 42.5 -4.4% ❌ Don't Buy Consistent alpha destruction — no thesis

AVOID (Broken or Extended)

Stock Current RSI 30D Action Notes
NVO $37.98 51.6 +2.0% ❌ Don't Buy Dead cat bounce territory; -53% from high

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
📈 ACCUMULATE ABBV RSI 40, -15.7% from high, cash flow monster
🔒 HOLD GILD, AMGN, REGN, INCY Profitable, golden cross, RSI neutral
🔍 WATCH LLY, VRTX, BIIB Thesis intact; need better RSI / price entry
🔍 WATCH MRNA Breakout leader — confirm RSI hold above 50
⚠️ AVOID BNTX, ALNY Elevated draw-down, no clear catalyst
❌ DON'T BUY NVO Structural repricing, not a dip
❌ DON'T BUY BMRN Chronic alpha destruction
10 events
DateTypeEvent
Apr 10 ScanBiotech Scan Apr 3 ScanBiotech Scan Apr 26 ScanBiotech Scan Mar 31 ScanBiotech Scan Apr 28 ScanBiotech Scan Mar 24 ScanBiotech Scan Mar 20 ScanBiotech Scan Mar 26 ScanBiotech Scan Mar 13 ScanBiotech Scan Mar 12 ScanBiotech Scan

No direct external sources are attached to this read.