AI Infrastructure Candidates — April 26, 2026
Overview
AI infra is in full blowoff territory. ARM and MRVL both hit RSI 87.2 — parabolic. ARM surged +49.5% 30D to $234.81, MRVL +67.0% 30D to $164.31. Both are near 52-week highs (-1.2% and -3.8%). TSM steady at $369.57 (RSI 62, strong-up golden cross, +26.0% vs SMA200). NVDA strong-up at $198.87 (RSI 69.6, golden cross, +9.7% vs SMA200). ASML cooling: $1,457.70, RSI 54.5, +32.6% vs SMA200. PLTR remains the sick man: $142.15, RSI 48.2, strong-down death cross, -13.4% vs SMA200 — now bouncing off lows. TAC quiet: $13.68, RSI 58.9, up trend, +2.9% vs SMA200.
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🔴 Blowoff territory — ARM/MRVL RSI 87, do NOT chase |
| Key insight |
TSM/NVDA the only healthy entries; ARM/MRVL require -20%+ pullback before touching |
Candidates
| Ticker |
Price |
RSI |
Trend |
7D |
30D |
52wkHi |
Signal |
Take |
| ARM |
$234.81 |
87.2↑ |
strong-up |
+42.1% |
+49.5% |
-1.2% |
GC |
BLOWOFF. +43.6% above SMA20. +68.0% vs SMA200. DO NOT CHASE. |
| MRVL |
$164.31 |
87.2↑ |
strong-up |
+13.1% |
+67.0% |
-3.8% |
GC |
BLOWOFF. +29.6% above SMA20. +90.7% vs SMA200. DO NOT CHASE. |
| AMZN |
$263.99 |
79.9↑ |
up |
+6.8% |
+24.7% |
-0.2% |
DC |
At ATH. +13.3% above SMA20. +16.6% vs SMA200. Death cross despite price strength. |
| NVDA |
$198.87 |
69.6 |
strong-up |
+8.1% |
+8.5% |
-6.3% |
GC |
Healthiest AI infra setup. +10.9% vs SMA20. +9.7% vs SMA200. Hold/add pullbacks. |
| TSM |
$369.57 |
62.0 |
strong-up |
+8.0% |
+8.9% |
-5.3% |
GC |
Foundry bellwether. +7.6% vs SMA20. +26.0% vs SMA200. Quality entry on SMA20 pullback ($343). |
| ASML |
$1,457.70 |
54.5 |
strong-up |
-0.4% |
+4.6% |
-5.8% |
GC |
Cooling from $1,482 high. +3.6% vs SMA20. +32.6% vs SMA200. Entry on SMA20 pullback ($1,407). |
| TAC |
$13.68 |
58.9 |
up |
+3.6% |
+9.7% |
-23.5% |
DC |
Quiet strength. +5.0% vs SMA20. +2.9% vs SMA200. Death cross lingers. |
| PLTR |
$142.15 |
48.2 |
strong-down |
-8.2% |
-6.9% |
-31.5% |
DC |
Bouncing off lows. -2.2% vs SMA20. -13.4% vs SMA200. Death cross. Broken structure. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Stocks |
Why |
| ⚠️ AVOID |
ARM, MRVL |
RSI 87 both — blowoff. +68%/+91% vs SMA200. Wait for -20% reversion |
| ⚠️ AVOID |
AMZN |
RSI 80 near ATH. Not an AI infra name but in summary — overbought |
| 🔒 HOLD |
NVDA |
Strong-up golden cross, RSI 70, healthy structure |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE |
TSM |
Best risk/reward — RSI 62, strong-up GC, SMA20 pullback to $343 |
| 🔍 WATCH |
ASML |
Cooling from highs. SMA20 at $1,407 is the entry zone |
| ❌ DON'T BUY |
PLTR |
Still broken. Death cross, -13.4% vs SMA200. No floor established |
Key Changes vs 04/10
| Ticker |
Price 04/10 |
Price 04/26 |
Move |
Note |
| ARM |
$149.90 |
$234.81 |
+56.6% |
RSI 60 → 87. Parabolic blowoff. Death cross flipped to golden cross. |
| MRVL |
$127.60 |
$164.31 |
+28.8% |
RSI 79 → 87. Extended further. +90.7% vs SMA200. |
| NVDA |
$188.36 |
$198.87 |
+5.6% |
RSI 61 → 70. Steady march. Still healthy. |
| TSM |
$372.63 |
$369.57 |
-0.8% |
RSI 63 → 62. Flat and stable. |
| ASML |
$1,482.06 |
$1,457.70 |
-1.6% |
RSI 62 → 55. Cooling. Normal consolidation. |
| PLTR |
$128.01 |
$142.15 |
+11.0% |
RSI 34 → 48. Bouncing. Still dead. |
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| ARM +56.6% in 16 days |
Blowoff in AI chip licensing — not a new position. Momentum rules but risk is extreme |
| MRVL custom ASIC thesis repriced to +90% vs SMA200 |
ASIC design wins fully priced |
| PLTR recovering but structural damage intact |
RSI 48 bounce is not a reversal — death cross + -13.4% vs SMA200 |
Open Questions
- Is ARM/MRVL parabolic justified by Nvidia Blackwell roadmap acceleration, or tariff exemptions?
- When does PLTR death cross flip? Watch SMA50 ($143.61) reclaim as first confirmation.